The Hall's 2011 BBWAA Ballot -- The Results

I don't do this for a living -- that's probably obvious -- so expediency isn't a high priority here -- and I'm certain that is glaringly obvious.

So, a week and a half later, let's wrap up the 2011 Hall of Fame ballot results.

Congratulations go to newest Hall honorees, in alphabetical order, Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven!!!

Yeah, I'm happy-delighted-ecstatic about Blyleven gaining the plaque. Long overdue, a long and uphill battle on the Web was fought, and the forces of good have prevailed. Yay!


2011 results

581 ballots submitted (a new record).
436 votes (75%) needed for election.
30 votes (5%) needed to stay on the ballot.

...candidate.......... votes.. %.. (remaining ballots)

--- ELECTED ---
1. Roberto Alomar..... 523.. 90.0%
2. Bert Blyleven...... 463.. 79.7%
--- not elected ---
3. Barry Larkin....... 361.. 62.1%... (13)
4. Jack Morris........ 311.. 53.5%... (3)
5. Lee Smith.......... 263.. 45.3%... (6)
6. Jeff Bagwell....... 242.. 41.7%... (14)
7. Tim Raines......... 218.. 37.5%... (11)
8. Edgar Martinez..... 191.. 32.9%... (13)
9. Alan Trammell...... 141.. 24.3%... (5)
10. Larry Walker...... 118.. 20.3%... (14)
11. Mark McGwire...... 115.. 19.8%... (10)
12. Fred McGriff...... 104.. 17.9%... (13)
13. Dave Parker........ 89.. 15.3%... candidacy expired
14. Don Mattingly...... 79.. 13.6%... (4)
15. Dale Murphy........ 73.. 12.6%... (2)
16. Rafael Palmeiro.... 64.. 11.0%... (14)
17. Juan Gonzalez...... 30... 5.2%... (14)
--- relegated ---
18. Harold Baines...... 28... 4.8%
19. John Franco........ 27... 4.7%
20. Kevin Brown........ 12... 2.1%
21. Tino Martinez....... 6... 1.0%
22t. Marquis Grissom.... 4... 0.7%
22t. Al Leiter.......... 4... 0.7%
22t. John Olerud........ 4... 0.7%
25. BJ Surhoff.......... 2... 0.3%
26t. Bret Boone......... 1... 0.2%
26t. Benito Santiago.... 1... 0.2%
28t. Carlos Baerga...... 0... 0.0%
28t. Lenny Harris....... 0... 0.0%
28t. Bobby Higginson.... 0... 0.0%
28t. Charles Johnson.... 0... 0.0%
28t. Raul Mondesi....... 0... 0.0%
28t. Kirk Rueter........ 0... 0.0%


Candidates I supported: Alomar, Bagwell, Blyleven, Larkin, Edgar Martinez, McGwire, McGriff, Murphy, Raines, and Smith. I was also in support of, but limited myself to ten candidates so had to cull them, Brown, Franco, and Walker.

Running down the ballot...

The electees:
Alomar (+16.4%) weathered his first-ballot slap on the wrist just fine. There can be other reasons why a candidate gains so greatly in one year, but this one was obvious. It was an embargo, but never intended to be a permanent one.

Blyleven (+5.5%) -- FINALLY!

The 2012 returning candidates:
Larkin (+10.6%) will make it, probably in 2012.

Morris (+1.2%) showed negligible movement and no promise. Unless he gets a tremendous push in the next three years -- and upcoming ballots look to be clogged with superior first-time candidates, which won't help his cause -- he's not going to make it. I'm awaiting the Morris proponents, particularly the ones who were not in favor of Blyleven, to start using the "Bert is in, Jack should be too" argument. They probably won't even notice the irony.

Smith (-2.0%) also didn't really move. He's got some years yet, and I think his election would enhance the "Hall reliever profile" that is slowly taking shape, but I recognize his candidacy is not looking promising.

Bagwell started well, but not as well as I think he should have gotten. The whispering campaign about him, that he played during the steroid era and lookit those forearms! and therefore dot dot dot, is utterly disgusting (and also cowardly, as no one will fill in the "dot dot dot" -- mainly because they cannot, no matter how much they want to do so). Turn up evidence, you alleged reporters, or swallow your egos and your collective failure to capture the steroid scandal in real time and cast this man his well-deserved votes. Bagwell is a Hall of Fame class player and person and you know it!

Raines (+7.1%) made a nice gain, has a lot of years left, and with the Blyleven candidacy closed (properly) he's probably going to be the next championed cause of the sabermetric crowd. He deserves that support and he deserves the plaque. Let's get on it!

Edgar Martinez (-3.3%) needs that support as well, though as a designated hitter, his battle is much more steeply uphill. The Hall will have to recognize a primary DH (Molitor doesn't really count) some day, and it may as well start with the very best ever, and that man is Edgar.

Trammell (+1.8%) is going nowhere and running out of time. I can see his case; I don't agree with it enough, but it's a good argument, better than many others.

Walker has to fight the reputation of Coors Field. That won't be easy, but at least it's an easier argument to debate than what the Blyleven cause had to contend against.

McGwire (-4.0%) lost a bit of support (not just from the higher return, he did lose a few votes) after his "yes, I used steroids" confession. Well, at least he didn't completely tank. That really was the last card he had to play, so unless the electorate undergoes a sea change in attitude (which could happen, but will not any time soon), he's a dead candidate walking. Or hanging around the batting cage, at least.

McGriff (-3.6%) is supposed to be one of those guys who, many think, would benefit from being perceived as clean despite playing in the notorious steroid era. I've always thought that was a spurious argument, that most voters don't approach their ballot that way, boosting guys who have a higher standing in public perception, and it certainly does not appear to hold water, because this notion isn't helping Murphy either. Voters seem to need to have a great deal of reason to vote for a candidate -- and they should -- but very little reason to vote against (okay, "not for") even the worthiest of candidates.

Mattingly (-2.5%) is going nowhere.

Murphy (+0.9%) is also going nowhere.

Palmeiro -- well, at least he stayed on the ballot, with a 6% margin, which should be large enough to buy him some grace time. With potentially 14 years more as a BBWAA candidate, he could benefit if the sea change arrives. I sincerely doubt it, either that it will come to pass during his window or that his candidacy would improve enough to see him elected, but at least he should last long enough to provide some interesting data.

Gonzalez survived by the thinnest whisker possible (one fewer vote and he'd be in the next candidate class, below). He may hang around a few years, but eventually he'll fall off. Nothing to see here.

The relegated candidates:
Parker (+0.1%) got no last-ballot sympathy, and is off the ballot. It happens.

Baines (-1.3%) still had his hardcore Chicago contingent of supporters, but the larger ballot return this time swamped them, and he went from skirting the retention edge to falling just over it. Doesn't upset me.

The remainder of the relegated candidates were all ballot rookies, and I have comments about only two of them, so the rest -- Tino Martinez, Grissom, Leiter, Olerud, Surhoff, Boone, Santiago, Baerga, Harris, Higginson, Johnson, Mondesi, and Rueter -- just get one last mention, and a wave farewell. You were good players all, guys, and you deserved being on the Hall ballot, even if just the one time. That's more than most players get.

So, those last two players.

Brown was a damn good pitcher -- not Clemens/Maddux/Johnson/Martinez class, but in the next step down for his era, with Mussina and Schilling. He had, I think, three strikes against him -- one, a perceived bad attitude or poor interpersonal skills, at least with the media; two, that monster $105M contract and the notion that he never lived up to it (he had good seasons and poor ones under that deal), and "not living up to it" is almost a cardinal sin to the baseball press; and three, steroids allegations, reasonably well-supported in the Mitchell Report. However, as much as some writers like to be anti-steroids scolds, in Brown's case this was probably the least important of the strikes against him. The writers just did not like the guy. I had little hopes he would get the plaque (ever), but he deserved better than this anemic return, a few more turns on the ballot at least. It is not to be.

Franco also deserved better. What is it with relievers, that the electorate either ushers them in immediately (Eckersley), after a loooooong wait (Sutter, Gossage, maybe Smith), or dismisses them rather harshly? Franco was a very good pitcher, and I supported him, though with only faint hopes he ever would get elected. That wasn't really my cause anyway; what I really would like to see, and I've mentioned this more than once in recent years (regarding Orosco and Jackson in particular), is a reliever to stay on the ballot so that more dialogue can be held regarding relief pitchers and what it takes to measure up to the standards of the Hall. Closers, at least, have save stats (no matter that they are woefully flawed) -- middle relievers are really screwed here -- but Franco's hefty saves total didn't help him a bit. And so, he's gone, and so is another golden opportunity to drive discussion about relief pitchers. The message the voters are giving is mixed -- okay, there should only be a few ever good enough for Cooperstown, but to have a candidate like Franco booted at the start doesn't leave any middle ground, someone to think about for a while. I'd settle for reading reasons why Franco was considered, by almost all the voters, not good enough a reliever, because he certainly is comparable to those already in and the one continuing candidate. It is extremely difficult to resolve a pattern here.

Looking ahead to the 2012 ballot, the returnees include Bagwell, Gonzalez, Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Mattingly, McGriff, McGwire, Morris, Murphy, Palmeiro, Raines, Smith, Trammell, and Walker. Eight of those are men I've supported, and Walker would have been my 11th candidate this time, so unless I abandon some (something which I try not to do, even a lost cause like Murphy) I'll have only one slot for a new candidate. This, however, will likely not be an issue, because the 2012 rookies are an uninspiring lot. The headliners likely will be Bernie Williams, Tim Salmon, and Javy Lopez. Sure, they were good, sometimes great, but Hall class? Possibly Williams, at most. So some lesser candidates may have a good chance next year, and they'll need it, because the 2013 ballot will be a shockwave -- the first of several upcoming, bursting with rookie candidates -- that well could sweep many away.