Chipmaker Coherent

The Hall's 2012 BBWAA ballot -- the results

2012-01-15T08:10:00.000-08:00

The results are in -- have been for several days now.

Congratulations to Barry Larkin, newest honoree of the Baseball Hall of Fame!

On to the numbers.

2012 results

573 ballots submitted.
430 votes (75%) needed for election.
29 votes (5%) needed to stay on the ballot.

...candidate.......... votes.. %.. (remaining ballots)

--- ELECTED ---
1. Barry Larkin....... 495.. 86.4%
--- not elected ---
2. Jack Morris........ 382.. 66.7%... (2)
3. Jeff Bagwell....... 321.. 56.0%... (13)
4. Lee Smith.......... 290.. 50.6%... (5)
5. Tim Raines......... 279.. 48.7%... (10)
6. Alan Trammell...... 211.. 36.8%... (4)
7. Edgar Martinez..... 209.. 36.5%... (12)
8. Fred McGriff....... 137.. 23.9%... (12)
9. Larry Walker....... 131.. 22.9%... (13)
10. Mark McGwire...... 112.. 19.6%... (9)
11. Don Mattingly..... 102.. 17.8%... (3)
12. Dale Murphy........ 83.. 14.5%... (1)
13. Rafael Palmeiro.... 72.. 12.6%... (13)
14. Bernie Williams.... 55... 9.6%... (14)
--- relegated ---
15. Juan Gonzalez...... 23... 4.0%
16. Vinny Castilla...... 6... 1.1%
17. Tim Salmon.......... 5... 0.9%
18. Bill Mueller........ 4... 0.7%
19. Brad Radke.......... 2... 0.4%
20t. Javy Lopez......... 1... 0.2%
20t. Eric Young......... 1... 0.2%
22t. Jeromy Burnitz..... 0... 0.0%
22t. Brian Jordan....... 0... 0.0%
22t. Terry Mulholland... 0... 0.0%
22t. Phil Nevin......... 0... 0.0%
22t. Ruben Sierra....... 0... 0.0%
22t. Tony Womack........ 0... 0.0%

Candidates I supported: Bagwell, Larkin, Martinez, McGriff, McGwire, Murphy, Raines, Smith, Walker, and Williams. I also supported Salmon, but cut him because I constrain myself to no more than ten votes, like the actual ballots mandate. Besides, I had no confidence in Salmon's candidacy, though I thought he'd do better than Castilla did.

Let's go down the ballot.

The electee:

Congratulations, again, to Barry Larkin. This honor was earned and well deserved.

The returning 2013 candidates:

Morris (+71 votes, +13.1%) made a huge gain, giving his candidacy the appearance of a sure thing, so close with two ballots left. I'm not so certain -- and it's not because I'm not a Morris supporter. He still needs approximately 50 votes, and after this huge increase, there may not be many left to garner. Also, with Blyleven out of the way thanks to being elected in 2011, Morris was the best starting pitcher on the 2012 ballot (Radke and Mulholland were faint competition). He will not have that distinction again. The 2013 ballot will likely have David Wells, Curt Schilling, and Roger Clemens, and 2014 -- Morris' last ballot -- will have Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine, and Greg Maddux. Think what you like of Clemens' upcoming candidacy, he was a distinctly superior pitcher to Morris, as were all the others, Wells being comparable. Voters who prefer checking only one name per position will have a hard time thinking Morris is the standout starting pitcher candidate, at least on his career merits. His ballot momentum may yet gain him the plaque, and that's okay with me; I just do not think he's got the cruise control assurance others have said he does.

Bagwell (+79, +14.4%) made a very nice gain. There's still nothing material, so perhaps the whispering campaign is failing -- and good riddance if so! -- and he should get there in another two or three ballots. Though, with longtime teammate Craig Biggio coming up next time, if they get elected together that would be a pleasing result.

Smith (+27, +5.3%) doesn't appear to have any critical momentum. This was barely a hiccup, and was probably helped by the weak class of first-time candidates. Still, surpassing the 50% mark is a promising sign.

Raines (+61, +11.2%) got a healthy boost. Keep beating the drums, Rock fans! We won the Blyleven campaign, we can do it for this most worthy player as well!

Tigers fans must be happy that Morris and Trammell (+70, +12.6%) made such large gains, but Tram is still so far down, and his clock is getting so short, that it's not likely there will be a happy ending here. The upcoming few ballots will be loaded with superstar candidates, and it will be that much harder for Trammell's candidacy to make an effective push with the field so crowded.

Voters never worry about a pitcher's offensive performance, and no one really cares about a hitter's defensive performance, so why is the best designated hitter ever discriminated against based upon the part of the game his team didn't want him to play? Dammit! The DH has been around for three generations now; there cannot be more than a handful of voters who witnessed the game without the DH (even as young fans, let alone covered as reporters). This is the type of baseball they have lived! Martinez (+18, +3.6%) got a blip of a gain, but he deserves so much more. Anyone who cannot appreciate the majesty of Edgar's hitting cannot appreciate baseball.

McGriff (+33, +6.0%) still isn't benefiting from the theoretical "well, we refuse to vote for the steroids guys, so we'll look instead to the 'clean' guys and vote for them" voter backlash. Great player, just not a flashy one.

Walker (+13, +2.6%) is fighting the Coors Effect, which seems to be as daunting as the DH Effect to a candidate. I find it incredible that, in these modern times with better and more detailed analysis available than ever before, many still will not bother to look beyond the surface dross and learn what a player really did on the field. Walker hit brilliantly, and he was good with the glove too. It wasn't just the thin air. His candidacy has a long time left to see if more and smarter voters cotton to him. Here's hoping.

McGwire (-3, -0.2%) is stuck in neutral. It's not gonna happen. shrug

Mattingly (+23, +4.2%) is likewise stuck in neutral. Just counting down, fans.

Murphy (+10, +1.9%) is not just stuck in neutral, his transmission is burned out. One ballot left before we get this over with. I can easily understand him not getting elected, but how is it this great player and excellent example of humanity only once cracked 20%? No love at all.

Palmeiro (+8, +1.6%) managed to survive, again, and even picked up a few votes. He'll probably linger behind McGwire for as long as both are on the ballot. Must've been the Viagra endorsements.

Williams was the only first-time candidate to get enough return to advance to the next ballot, which was exactly what the early buzz predicted. Good player, and wore the Yankee pinstripes his entire career, and you can never discount that -- but he's got a long, long way to move up if he's ever to get the plaque. Right now it doesn't look good, but we'll know more after next year.

The relegated:

Gonzalez (-7, -1.2%) barely squeaked by last year, and this year fell below the line. No surprise, really.

I have no comments for the rest of the candidates -- Castilla, Salmon, Mueller, Radke, Lopez, Young, Burnitz, Jordan, Mulholland, Nevin, Sierra, and Womack -- so just a quick "nice to see you one more time, guys" tip of the cap, and we're done for the year.

Looking ahead to the 2013 ballot, this will be the long-anticipated tsunami of rookie candidates, including Kenny Lofton, David Wells, Sandy Alomar, Julio Franco, Jose Mesa, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza, Craig Biggio, and lightning rods Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds. This one should be a whole lot of fun!

The Hall's 2012 BBWAA ballot -- candidate reviews, all in one big post

2012-01-08T09:34:00.000-08:00

Boy howdy, I let December get away from me, and now the vote announcement is tomorrow. So, on to the reviews.

Returning candidates I supported in 2011: Bagwell, Larkin, Martinez, McGriff, McGwire, Murphy, Raines, and Smith. And I wanted to support Walker but limited myself to ten names, just like the actual BBWAA voters must. So I already have eight or nine of my possible ten candidates pre-selected, leaving little leeway for the ballot rookies, but if you're reading this you probably already know that the rookies this year are an uninspiring lot. There's probably no end-of-ballot conundrum about which name or names to bypass this time.

I tend to look more favorably upon great seasons produced than upon shiny career totals.

None of the rookie candidates are mentioned in the Mitchell Report.

WAR stats from BaseballReference.com.

The candidates....

1. Jeff Bagwell (career statistics | reviewed on 2011 ballot)

Year on ballot: 2nd (13 remaining).
Peak return: 41.7% (2011).
2011 return: 41.7%

Career: 15 seasons, 1991-2005 -- all with the Houston Astros.
Peak season: 1994 -- in a strike-shortened season, Bags played in 110 of Houston's 115 games. The strike ended the season on August 11, and this is what he did: 147 hits, 32 doubles, 39 HR, 116 RBI, 65 walks, .368 / .451 / .750, 104 runs scored, 213 OPS+, 8.9 WAR (in a short season). Geez.
Other outstanding seasons: 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001... he made a habit of being great.
Career WAR: 79.9.
Primary position: first baseman.
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections (two starts), 1994 NL MVP, 1991 NL Rookie Of The Year, three NL Silver Sluggers, one NL Gold Glove for 1B. Led NL in games played four times, runs scored three times, doubles once, RBI once, walks once, slugging once. Jersey #5 retired by the Astros.
Postseason glory: member of six postseason teams, including the 2004 NL champion Astros. Bagwell didn't really shine in October, batting .226 / .364 / .321 in 33 games, 129 plate appearances, with 2 HR and 13 RBI. He had nothing left when Houston went to the Series in '05, he only pinch-hit or played DH, but he greatly helped his team get to the postseason every time. No real bonus points here, but Bagwell's seasons is why there even was postseasons to think of.

Reasons for Bagwell: amazingly good hitter, very good fielder. A bad shoulder drained his power and ended his career, he could have done more (though we cannot give credit for this), but what he did do was amazing and Hall-worthy.

Reasons against Bagwell: he played in the 1990s, hit a lot of home runs (in a power-hostile home park), and had muscular forearms.

I realize McCarthyist whispering campaigns are always going to be popular in certain domains, but I really hoped baseball would be immune to such wretchedness. Voting writers, the craven and cowardly sort, continue to embargo Bagwell based upon, not even real suspicions, but mere worries about maybe suspicions cropping up someday or other. None of these purported "journalists" actually LOOK for anything, of course; far too responsible an approach. Nah. Let's just go with the yellow option.

Such writers are failures. Failing in their responsibility to their charge by the Hall as electors, failing in their responsibility to Bagwell (and any other candidates so treated, based upon nothing), failing as journalists, failing fans of baseball. Got something? Show it. Got nothing? Then move on. Bagwell is a worthy candidate, and when he does get elected, and he will eventually, your failures will be complete. Any voter who refuses to support Bagwell's candidacy for a valid reason -- and your real reason, not whatever you publish; I'd more respect "I didn't like that scraggly goatee he wore for years" in earnest than any unsubstantiated suspicion of steroid usage -- is weak. Go copulate yourselves. Abstain. Withdraw permanently from the electorate. Just get out of the way, because you are not serving the cause.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

2. Jeromy Burnitz (career statistics)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 14 seasons, 1993-2006 -- New York Mets 1993-94 & 2002-03, Cleveland Indians 1995-96, Milwaukee Brewers 1996-2001, Los Angeles Dodgers 2003, Colorado Rockies 2004, Chicago Cubs 2005, Pittsburgh Pirates 2006.
Peak season: 1999 -- .270 / .402 / .561, 33 doubles, 33 HR, 103 RBI, 91 walks, 142 OPS+, 3.4 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1997, 1998, 2004.
Career WAR: 17.6.
Primary position: right field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: one All-Star selection.
Postseason glory: none. Part-time player for the 1995-96 Cleveland Indians but never got into a postseason game.

Good hitting, good slugging outfielder. An asset on the field and at the plate, but Burnitz didn't have greatness, and nothing in his career profile says otherwise. Not Hall class, but he got on the ballot, and that's a nice finish.

Chipmaker's vote: no.

3. Vinny Castilla (career statistics)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 16 seasons, 1991-2006 -- Atlanta Braves 1991-92 & 2002-03, Colorado Rockies 1993-99, 2004, & 2006, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 2000-01, Houston Astros 2001, Washington Nationals 2005, San Diego Padres 2006.
Peak season: 1998 -- .319 / .362 / .589, 206 hits, 28 doubles, 46 HR, 144 RBI, 127 OPS+, 4.5 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1996, 2004.
Career WAR: 16.4.
Primary position: third base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections, three NL Silver Sluggers for third base, led NL in RBI once, games played once, assists by 3B twice, putouts by 3B twice, fielding percentage by 3B twice (and not always the same two seasons).
Postseason glory: played in four postseasons, hitting .350 / .409 / .617 in 17 games, 66 plate appearances, with 5 HR and 12 RBI. That's pretty darn good -- but all four teams lost in the Division Series, so he never got to really show off in October.

Castilla loved hitting in Coors Field. Well, sure, everyone did, and there's nothing like playing at home -- but among ballparks where he played more than ten games, he hit better only in Phoenix, and even there not much better. Vinny was a good player, a good hitter, and a good fielder -- yet even with Coors helping his cause, he never was great and never really looked great (because he wasn't). Even playing an underappreciated position like third base, he doesn't measure up to the Hall.

Chipmaker's vote: no.

4. Juan Gonzalez (career statistics | reviewed on 2011 ballot)

Year on ballot: 2nd (13 remaining, maybe).
Peak return: 5.2% (2011).
2011 return: 5.2%

Career: 17 seasons, 1989-2005 -- *Texas Rangers 1989-99 & 2002-03, Detroit Tigers 2000, Cleveland Indians 2001 & 2005, Kansas City Royals 2004.
Peak season: 1993 -- 166 hits, 33 doubles, 46 HR, 118 RBI, 105 runs scored, .310 / .368 / .632, 169 OPS+, 6.7 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2001.
Career WAR: 33.5.
Primary position: right fielder. Gonzo did not DH very much -- only 370 games out of nearly 1700 in his career.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (two starts), two AL MVP Awards (1996 and 1998), six AL Silver Sluggers. Led league in home runs twice, doubles once, RBI once.
Postseason glory: Played in four postseasons, including all three of the Rangers' first appearances. Devastating in 1996 against the Yankees with five home runs, but the rest of the team mustered nothing as they went down in four games. Scored Texas' only two runs total in 1998 and 1999 as the Yanks mercilessly swept them. And made a good showing with Cleveland in 2001, resulting in a career postseason line of .290 / .333 / .742, 8 HR, 15 RBI in 15 games, 66 PA -- but every team went down in the first round, obscuring his performances.

Mitchell Report: A bag belonging to one of Gonzalez's trainers was seized at Canadian customs (his team was heading to Toronto) with steroids inside.

So much fun to watch hit, because he'd swing at anything and, when he made contact, the ball tended to go a long way. Probably should have had another 400 quality games, but couldn't stay healthy. Barely escaped ballot relegation last year, and while he might survive again, it won't last. Loved watching him play, but there's no plaque forthcoming.

Chipmaker's vote: no.

5. Brian Jordan (career statistics)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 15 seasons, 1992-2006 -- St. Louis Cardinals 1992-98, Atlanta Braves 1999-2001 & 2005-06, Los Angeles Dodgers 2002-03, Texas Rangers 2004.
Peak season: 1998 -- .316 / .368 / .534, 34 doubles, 25 HR, 91 RBI, 134 OPS+, 6.5 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1996, 2001.
Career WAR: 33.5.
Primary position: right field, though he played a good bit in center and left as well.
Honoraria and claims to fame: one All-Star selection. Often among the defensive leaders as an outfielder.
Postseason glory: member of five postseason teams, mostly Atlanta including the 1999 NL champions, and once in St. Louis. Batted .250 / .305 / .436 in 38 games, 154 PA, with 6 HR and 27 RBI.

Really good defensive player who could hit and slug pretty well, a definite asset on the roster, but not a rare player and never ascended to greatness. Made the ballot, which is his last stop, and that's still more than most players ever get.

Chipmaker's vote: no.

6. Barry Larkin (career statistics | reviewed on 2011 and 2010 ballots)

Year on ballot: 3rd (12 remaining).
Peak return: 62.1% (2011).
2011 return: 62.1%

Career: 19 seasons, 1986-2004 -- Cincinnati Reds the whole time.
Peak season: 1996 -- 33 HR, 89 RBI, .298/.410/.567, 117 runs, 32 doubles, 36 stolen bases, 154 OPS+, 7.4 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999.
Career WAR: 68.9.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Twelve All-Star selections (five starts), 1995 NL MVP, three NL Gold Gloves for shortstop, nine NL Silver Sluggers for shortstop. Ranks in the Top Five in many Reds franchise hitting records, including second in hits and doubles (behind Pete Rose).
Postseason glory: member of two postseason teams, including the 1990 World Series champions. Batted .337 / .397 / .465 in 17 games, 78 PA, with 5 doubles, 2 triples, 8 stolen bases and 7 walks. None of this excellence makes him any better a player, but should push his Hall candidacy from "slightly uncertain" to "no doubt at all".

Great player. Great shortstop, and position matters (a lot). Larkin is Hall-worthy, and the voters know it, so I hope this year they get over whatever has been holding enough of them back from giving him his due.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

7. Javy Lopez (career statistics)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 15 seasons, 1992-2006 -- Atlanta Braves 1992-2003, Baltimore Orioles 2004-06, Boston Red Sox 2006.
Peak season: 2003 -- .328 / .378 / .687, 29 doubles, 43 HR, 109 RBI, 169 OPS+, 6.6 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1997, 1998, 2004.
Career WAR: 27.9.
Primary position: catcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections, one Silver Slugger for catcher, often among the defensive leaders as catcher in the NL.
Postseason glory: thanks to being a key part of the Braves dynasty, Lopez played in nine postseasons, including the 1995 World Series champions. Posted .278 / .324 / .493 in 60 games, 225 PA, with 10 HR and 28 RBI. Named MVP of the 1996 NLCS.

Lopez was a long-lasting part of the Atlanta dynasty, the 1991-2005 era that saw the Braves advance to October fourteen times. He caught greatness -- Glavine, Smoltz, sometimes Maddux. And he played in 100+ games ten times over eleven seasons (1995-2005), which isn't easy as a catcher; the position delivers a beating.

Even allowing for that, Lopez was never consistently great. One great season, four really good ones, and a bunch of adequate ones. Overall it's not enough for the Hall.

About that one great season, 2003 -- does anyone ever question it? It was his free agent year, he was 32, it was way better than anything he'd ever done, and it was before the steroids ban. Was he enhanced? I don't know and, since it was before the ban, I don't care -- but it is so out of line with his career, like the superb seasons of Brady Anderson or Bret Boone (just to name two) that it surprises me there are no questions asked about it. I suppose the BBWAA voters only really want to suspect high-leverage Hall candidates, and the hoi-polloi can go about their merry ways. Lopez isn't going to be back on the 2013 ballot, so it doesn't matter; but if the PED question DOES matter, shouldn't it matter in every case? Perhaps I hope for too much accountability, from the players and the writers.

Chipmaker's vote: no.

8. Edgar Martinez (career statistics | reviewed on 2011 and 2010 ballots)

Year on ballot: 3rd (12 remaining).
Peak return: 36.2% (2010).
2011 return: 32.9%

Career: 18 seasons, 1987-2004 -- all with the Seattle Mariners.
Peak season: 1995 -- 29 HR, 113 RBI, .356/.479/.628, 182 hits, 52 doubles, 121 runs, 185 OPS+, 7.7 WAR, while playing the entire 145 game schedule.
Other outstanding seasons: 1990, 1991, 1992, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003.
Career WAR: 67.2.
Primary position: designated hitter; was a third baseman in his early seasons.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (four starts), five AL Silver Sluggers (one for 3B, four for DH), two AL batting championships, led the league in OBP three times, runs scored once, doubles twice, RBI once. MLB's designated hitter award is named in Martinez's honor.
Postseason glory: member of all four Mariners teams that have advanced to the postseason. Batted .266 / .365 / .508 in 34 games, 148 PA, with 7 doubles, 8 HR, 24 RBI, and 19 walks. Beat the utter crap out of the 1995 Yankees (.571 / .667 / 1.000!), including the game-winning and series-winning double that scored Griffey in extra innings of Game 5 of the Division Series, still the finest moment in Seattle baseball history.

Designated hitter is a real position, part of the game for nearly 40 seasons now. How many voting members of the BBWAA remember baseball before the DH? I suppose there's a few crusty old farts who still think expansion was a bad idea or are waiting for the Dodgers to move back to Brooklyn, but it cannot be more than a handful. The point, most voters have never known baseball without the DH. It's a part of the game, and the Hall is going to have to recognize a primary designated hitter some time or other, and may as well start with the best ever, Martinez. By the baseball gods, this man could hit like crazy. He's Hall-worthy. Let's see him on a plaque.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

9. Don Mattingly (career statistics | reviewed on 2011, 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 12th (three remaining).
Peak return: 28.2% (2001 -- Donnie's first ballot).
2011 return: 13.6%

Career: 14 seasons, 1982-95 -- all with the New York Yankees.
Peak season: 1986 -- 238 hits, 53 doubles, 31 HR, 113 RBI, 117 runs scored, .352 / .394 / .573, 161 OPS+, 6.9 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1984, 1985, 1987, 1988, 1989.
Career WAR: 39.8.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections (one start), 1985 AL MVP, nine AL Gold Gloves at 1B, three AL Silver Sluggers at 1B, 1984 AL batting champion. Led league in slugging once, hits twice, doubles three times, RBI once. Set the major league single season record for grand slams with six in 1987. Tied the ML record for consecutive games with a home run, with eight. Jersey #23 retired by the Yankees.
Postseason glory: played in one postseason, 1995 v. the triumphant Mariners, and did very well -- .417 /.440 / .708 with 1 HR and 6 RBI, a shining swan song performance in a series that was decided more by the pitching than the hitting.

That lack of postseason airtime possibly could be what keeps Mattingly out of the Hall. Many fans attach way too much import to postseason play, at least when it comes to Hall consideration. The voters tend not to penalize players who missed October or never held aloft the trophy. But, while lack of playoff time doesn't count against most, it does tend to count against Yankees, because of the franchise's rich (and belabored) postseason history. Not winning, as a Yankee, is something seen as a fault or flaw. Had Mattingly gotten to the playoffs more, maybe he'd have higher returns -- probably not enough to get the plaque, but I think it is hurting him some. The Yankee mystique is working against his cause. Conversely, winning as a Yankee, even as a minor part, has gotten some men a plaque that history probably didn't see a great need in adding to the collection. Weird, ain't it?

It doesn't really matter -- the effect is interesting, but for Mattingly specifically it doesn't matter -- because his career doesn't measure up. Four great seasons, two good seasons, and the rest was average. Donnie's career is the opposite of Koufax's -- Sandy started out forgettably, then soared, then departed, leaving all to wonder "what more was there?". Mattingly started out soaring, then plunged, and if he left anything undone it wouldn't have impressed us anyway. Important lesson: leave them wanting more.

Chipmaker's vote: no.

10. Fred McGriff (career statistics | reviewed on 2011 and 2010 ballots)

Year on ballot: 3rd (12 remaining).
Peak return: 21.5% (2010).
2011 return: 17.9%

Career: 19 seasons, 1986-2004 -- Toronto Blue Jays 1986-90, San Diego Padres 1991-93, Atlanta Braves 1993-97, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 1998-2001 & 2004, Chicago Cubs 2001-02, Los Angeles Dodgers 2003.
Peak season: 1992 -- 152 hits, 30 doubles, 35 HR, 104 RBI, 79 runs scored, 96 walks, .286 / .394 / .556, 166 OPS+, 5.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1999, 2001.
Career WAR: 50.5.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Five All-Star selections (three starts), three Silver Sluggers (one AL, two NL) for 1B, led both leagues in HR once each. 1994 All-Star MVP.
Postseason glory: Member of five postseason teams, including the 1995 World Series champion Braves. Delivered .303 / .385 / .532 in 50 games, 218 PA, with 11 doubles, 10 HR, 37 RBI, and 27 walks. Certainly helped his teams' causes in October!

Outstanding hitter and very good fielder. First base will never be a premium defensive position, in fact it's considered the least demanding spot on the diamond, but McGriff was excellent at what he had to do. Often among the league leaders in power stats. I cannot help but think that if he had reached 500 home runs, his candidacy would be much higher, possibly even his plaque minted by now. Given back the 1994-95 seasons -- which we cannot do, of course, as as a MLBPA member McGriff supported the action -- he surely would have hit those seven more (at least) dingers and that would be that. C'mon, he's Hall-worthy, voters!

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

11. Mark McGwire (career statistics | reviewed on 2011, 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 6th (nine remaining).
Peak return: 23.7% (2010).
2011 return: 19.8%

Career: 16 seasons, 1986-2001 -- Oakland Athletics 1986-97, St. Louis Cardinals 1997-2001.
Peak season: 1998 -- 152 hits, 21 doubles, 70 HR, 147 RBI, 130 runs, 162 walks (then an NL record), .299 / .470 / .752, 216 OPS+, 7.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, and 2000 even though he played only 89 games.
Career WAR: 63.1.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 12 All-Star selections (six starts), 1987 AL ROY, one AL Gold Glove at 1B, three Silver Sluggers (one AL, two NL) at 1B. Led league in on-base percentage twice, slugging four times, home runs four times, RBI once, walks twice. Rookie record 49 HR. Record 70 HR in 1998, since surpassed once. Member of the 500 Home Runs Club (583 career).
Postseason glory: Member of six postseason teams, including the 1989 World Series champion Athletics. Hit .217 / .320 / .349 in 42 games, 151 PA, with 5 HR, 14 RBI, and 18 walks. Managed only one hit in the 1988 World Series, but it was a walk-off home run to win Game 3, a moment largely overlooked against the Dodgers' championship and Gibson's far more remarkable walk-off shot in Game 1.

On his playing merits, McGwire merits the Hall. Hit and slugged a ton. Missed a lot of time due to injuries, but I think his total production overrides that. And whatever magic waters he used, and he has said he did, he used before the 2004 ban was enacted. I will not penalize players for breaking rules which did not exist at the time.

Mac doesn't get to stand on just his playing merits, though. The writers have refused to give him fairer due to date, and they aren't much going to change. I won't go there, because it is an ugly place.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

12. Jack Morris (career statistics | reviewed on 2011, 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 13th (two remaining).
Peak return: 53.5% (2011).
2011 return: 53.5%

Career: 18 seasons, 1977-94 -- Detroit Tigers 1977-90, Minnesota Twins 1991, Toronto Blue Jays 1992-93, Cleveland Indians 1994.
Peak season: 1986 -- 21-8, 3.27, 35 starts, 15 CG, 6 ShO, 267.0 innings, 223 K, 127 ERA+, 4.7 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1979, 1981, 1985, 1987, 1991, 1992.
Career WAR: 39.3 (as a pitcher).
Primary position: starting pitcher (right handed).
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections. Led league in wins twice, strikeouts once, shutouts once, innings pitched once, complete games once. Pitched a no-hitter in 1984.
Postseason glory: You've probably heard about this game, which helped him win the 1991 World Series MVP. Overall 7-4 in 13 starts, 92.1 innings, with a 3.80 ERA, 1.245 WHIP, and 64:32 K:BB ratio. Hey, he was very good in 1984 and 1991 and not very good in 1987 and 1992 -- which works out to Morris being on four postseason teams and helping win three championships.

Good pitcher. Sometimes very good. Rarely great. Those who see the Hall-worthiness will see it no matter what. I don't see it no matter how closely I look for it.

Chipmaker's vote: no.

13. Bill Mueller (career statistics)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 11 seasons, 1996-2006 -- San Francisco Giants 1996-2000 & 2002, Chicago Cubs 2001-02, Boston Red Sox 2003-05, Los Angeles Dodgers 2006.
Peak season: 2003 -- .326 / .398 / .540, 45 doubles, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 59 walks, 140 OPS+, 5.5 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: um... 1998 was pretty good.
Career WAR: 22.6.
Primary position: third base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 2003 AL batting champion. One AL Silver Slugger for 3B.
Postseason glory: Member of five postseason teams, including the historic 2004 World Series champion Boston Red Sox. Hit .234 / .302 / .310 with 8 doubles, 1 HR, and 4 RBI. No, it's not much, but his one RBI in the 2004 ALCS came in the bottom of the ninth in Game 4, facing elimination with Rivera on the mound, and Mueller smacked the ball into center, allowing Roberts to score and tie the game, and the greatest comeback in baseball history began that moment.

Mueller played for eleven seasons, and that's pretty amazing given what he provided. The first player for the curse-breaking 2004 Red Sox to reach the Hall ballot, he is no shining star, but his presence does evoke that storied season, and that's a happy thought. If he gets one vote, even from a Boston-area writer, that will be a triumph. I cannot give him my support, but Mueller was on one very special team that has proudly gone down in history.

Chipmaker's vote: no. But I'll always think fondly of Mueller or any member of the 2004 Sox.

14. Terry Mulholland (career statistics)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 20 seasons, 1986 & 1988-2006 -- San Francisco Giants 1986, 1988-89, 1995, 1997, Philadelphia Phillies 1989-93 & 1996, New York Yankees 1994, Seattle Mariners 1996, Chicago Cubs 1997 & 1998-99, Atlanta Braves 1999-2000, Pittsburgh Pirates 2001, Los Angeles Dodgers 2001-02, Cleveland Indians 2002-03, Minnesota Twins 2004-05, Arizona Diamondbacks 2006. To save you counting, that's eleven different franchises.
Peak season: 1993 -- 12-9, 3.25 in 29 games (28 starts), 191.0 innings, 116 K, 1.136 WHIP, 122 ERA+, 3.8 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: With 20 seasons, there'd have to be some other noteworthy year, right? Um... 1991 and 1998 were interesting.
Career WAR: 10.3.
Primary position: starting pitcher (left handed), though he mostly pitched in relief after age 38.
Honoraria and claims to fame: one All-Star selection. Led NL in complete games once. As a rookie, he made highlight reels when he fielded a hot bouncer back to the mound, couldn't get it out of the webbed pocket, and decided to toss the entire glove, ball stuck within, to his first baseman. They got the out.
Postseason glory: Member of five postseason teams, including two NL champions, the 1993 Phillies and 1999 Braves. Overall 1-2, 6.61 in 15 games (3 starts), 31.1 innings, with 15 strikeouts.

Mulholland was around forever, always finding a job somewhere, living proof that a left-handed pitcher is always a commodity in short supply. He could eat up innings, and teams do need to throw around 1400 every season, so that made him useful, but he was rarely good and never great. Nice to be on the ballot, but for Mulholland it is one and done.

Chipmaker's vote: no.

15. Dale Murphy (career statistics | reviewed on 2011, 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 14th (one remaining).
Peak return: 23.2% (2000).
2011 return: 12.6%

Career: 18 seasons, 1976-93 -- *Atlanta Braves 1976-90, Philadelphia Phillies 1990-92, Colorado Rockies 1993.
Peak season: 1983 -- 178 hits, 24 doubles, 36 HR, 121 RBI, 131 runs scored, 30 stolen bases, 90 walks, .302 / .393 / .540, 149 OPS+, 7.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987.
Career WAR: 44.2.
Primary position: center field, right field when he got older.
Honoraria and claims to fame: seven All-Star selections (five starts), 1982 and 1983 NL MVP Awards, five NL Gold Gloves for outfield, four NL Silver Sluggers for outfield. Led league in slugging twice, runs scored once, home runs twice, RBI twice, walks once. Jersey #3 retired by the Braves.
Postseason glory: Only made it to October once, with the 1982 Braves, where he went .273 / .273 / .273 with three hits, all singles, and one run scored. Nothing more to say here.

Murf had six great seasons in an eight-year span, 1980-87, and then fell off a cliff. I think the great span was enough, though recognize that the fall-off-a-cliff part of his career does nothing to help his candidacy. A graceful tail-off would look much nicer, as would 400 home runs. The voters aren't seeing Murphy the way I am, and I am resigned to this. I still support him, but it's not going to happen.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! Though it's clearly futile. Ah well.

16. Phil Nevin (career statistics)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 12 seasons, 1995-2006 -- Houston Astros 1995, Detroit Tigers 1995-97, Anaheim Angels 1998, San Diego Padres 1999-2005, Texas Rangers 2005-06, Chicago Cubs 2006, Minnesota Twins 2006.
Peak season: 2001 -- .306 / .388 / .588, 31 doubles, 41 HR, 126 RBI, 71 walks, 158 OPS+, 6.6 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1999, 2000.
Career WAR:15.9.
Primary position: third base, but also played first base, left field, and even caught (!) 109 games.
Honoraria and claims to fame: one All-Star selection. Overall #1 draft pick in 1992.
Postseason glory: Appeared in only one postseason game, the very last of his career, with the 2006 Twins. And went 0-3. And you thought Murphy was unimpressive.

Number one draft picks almost never live up to the inevitable hype. Some do -- Griffey, Rodriguez -- but most are like Nevin, who play well but it never looks like enough. He had a good career, never stepped it up for long, and it seemed like he never figured it out. Well, maybe, but maybe he should have been drafted lower instead. It doesn't matter, he got to play and got on the ballot this time, and we say a brief hello and goodbye, nice to remember you.

Chipmaker's vote: no.

17. Rafael Palmeiro (career statistics | reviewed on 2011 ballot)

Year on ballot: 2nd (13 remaining).
Peak return: 11.0% (2011).
2011 return: 11.0%

Career: 20 seasons, 1986-2005 -- Chicago Cubs 1986-88, *Texas Rangers 1989-93 & 1999-2003, Baltimore Orioles 1994-98 & 2004-05.
Peak season: 1993 -- 176 hits, 40 doubles, 37 HR, 105 RBI, 124 runs scored, .295 / .371 / .554, 150 OPS+, 7.4 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1991, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002.
Career WAR: 66.0.
Primary position: first baseman. He DH'd some in his older seasons, but that was his primary role only twice, 1999 and 2003.
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections (one start), two AL Silver Sluggers, three AL Gold Gloves for first base (though the one in 1999 was a bad joke, as he played only 28 games at 1B). Led league in hits once and runs scored once -- but he was in the top ten, and often the top five, in many categories in many seasons. Member of the 500 Home Run Club (569) and 3000 Hits Club (3020).
Postseason glory: Member of three postseason teams, providing .244 / .308 / .451 in 22 games, 91 PA, with 5 doubles, 4 HR, and 8 RBI. Never reached the World Series, though, which has happened to greater and lesser players.

Mitchell Report: mentioned for having failed a steroids test (stanozolol was found in his system) in 2005, for which he was suspended for ten games. Named by Canseco as having been using under his supervision, possibly as early as 1992.

Whatever players used before 2004, I give them a pass -- no rules, no rulebreaking, and the entire MLB internal culture was one of tacit complicity. No asking, no telling, use whatever you need for your competitive edge. But since the ban -- man, only an idiot gets caught. But we're not yet discussing Manny Ramirez....

Palmeiro brewed a perfect storm of witlessness -- testifying boldly before Congress, avowing his cleanliness, and then getting busted. On his playing merits, like McGwire and others, he's got more than enough testimony for the Hall. But getting nailed after the ban went into effect, that just crushes his candidacy, knowing better and still blowing it. Maybe knuckleheadedness shouldn't be an obstacle to the Hall, but today, in these circumstances, I still think it is.

Chipmaker's vote: no. Not yet, anyway.

18. Brad Radke (career statistics)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 12 seasons, 1995-2006 -- the entirety with the Minnesota Twins.
Peak season: 1997 -- 20-10, 3.87 in 35 starts, 239.2 innings, 174 K, 1.193 WHIP, 120 ERA+, 4.0 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1998, 1999, 2000, 2004.
Career WAR: 41.4.
Primary position: starting pitcher (right handed).
Honoraria and claims to fame: one All-Star selection.
Postseason glory: Member of four postseason teams, overall 2-3, 3.60 in 6 starts, 35.0 innings, with 17 strikeouts.

Radke was rarely distinguished on the diamond; he was a quiet workhorse, throwing over 200 innings (usually well over) nine times in ten seasons. He was prone to serving longballs, but he mitigated that by not walking anyone. Seriously, Radke's high in walks issued was 57, and he only once else gave up as many as 51 -- and remember, these were 200+ inning seasons. But a lot of his early Twins teams weren't very good, so he never piled up wins but for the one 20-win season. Very useful pitcher; not a great one, but a lot better than most remember him as being. He deserves being on this ballot. He doesn't deserve more, but he does deserve this one.

Chipmaker's vote: no.

19. Tim Raines (career statistics | reviewed on 2011, 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 5th (ten remaining).
Peak return: 37.5% (2011).
2011 return: 37.5%

Career: 23 seasons, 1979-99 & 2001-02 -- Montréal Expos 1979-90 & 2001, Chicago White Sox 1991-95, New York Yankees 1996-98, Oakland Athletics 1999, Baltimore Orioles 2001, Florida Marlins 2002.
Peak season: 1987 -- 175 hits, 34 doubles, 8 triples, 18 HR, 68 RBI, 50 stolen bases (caught only five times), 90 walks, .330 / .429 / .526, 149 OPS+, 6.8 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1989, 1992, 1993.
Career WAR: 64.6.
Primary position: left field. Leadoff hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections, 1987 All-Star MVP, one NL Silver Slugger. Led league in batting once, on-base percentage once, runs twice, stolen bases four times. Career 84.7% stolen base success rate is the highest for anyone with 300+ SB. 808 career SB ranks fifth all-time. Jersey #30 retired by the Expos.
Postseason glory: Member of five postseason teams, including the 1996 & 1998 World Series champion Yankees, and the only Expos team ever to play in October. Stats: .270 / .340 / .349 in 34 games, 142 PA, with 7 doubles, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 14 walks, and 3 stolen bases.

What's not to love about Raines? The most successful base stealer in baseball history (and ranked fifth in total steals). Outstanding hitter in the first half of his career, very useful journeyman in the second. Compares favorably, in just about every way, with Rickey Henderson, his exact contemporary. Raines is Hall-worthy. His ballot returns are showing a promising trend, going up, though he's still got a long way to go. Let's hope it doesn't take very long, because he has more than earned the plaque, and the Hall needs another Expos logo.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

20. Tim Salmon (career statistics)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 14 seasons, 1992-2004 & 2006 -- all with the Angels. That's the California Angels (1992-96), Anaheim Angels (1997-2004), and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (2006). Gracious!
Peak season: 1995 -- .330 / .429 / .594, 34 doubles, 34 HR, 105 RBI, 91 walks, 165 OPS+, 6.8 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1993, 1997, 1998, 2002.
Career WAR: 37.6.
Primary position: right field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 1993 AL Rookie of the Year Award, one AL Silver Slugger for outfield. Often among the defensive league leaders for right fielders.
Postseason glory: Member of two postseason teams, though he played in only one, but one worth playing for -- the 2002 World Series champion Angels. Hit .288 / .382 / .525 in 16 games, 68 PA, with 2 doubles, 4 HR, 12 RBI, and 8 walks. Salmon certainly made the most of his one chance.

Tim Salmon was never an All-Star. How could that have happened? He wasn't an obviously great player but he was always a very good one; an All-Star berth should have popped up at least once. Strange.

Salmon was reliable. Started with a bang, collecting the Rookie award, hung on through some lean times in Anaheim, and was on hand (and helped greatly) when the Halos at last collected the trophy. He produced reliably, always with 20+ home runs, 90+ walks, a healthy OBP in the upper .300s, slugging around .500. And he was good on defense at an important position. It's nice to be able to pencil in someone like that.

I can't see any reason not to support Salmon, other than that he never really stepped up to greatness, but he provided reliable and consistent very-goodness, and that's worth remembering. I don't think he'll be back on the 2013 ballot anyway, and if I end up with too many candidates he'll be the first cut, but right now, heck, I'm happy to support Salmon for the Hall.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

21. Ruben Sierra (career statistics)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 20 seasons, 1986-98 & 2000-06 -- Texas Rangers 1986-92, 2000-01, & 2003, Oakland Athletics 1992-95, New York Yankees 1995-96 & 2003-05, Detroit Tigers 1996, Cincinnati Reds 1997, Toronto Blue Jays 1997, Chicago White Sox 1998, Seattle Mariners 2002, Minnesota Twins 2006. Nine different franchises.
Peak season: 1989 -- .306 / .347 / .543, 101 runs, 194 hits, 35 doubles, 14 triples, 29 HR, 119 RBI, 146 OPS+, 5.7 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1991. For so many seasons, not many were noteworthy.
Career WAR: 13.6.
Primary position: right fielder for ten seasons, then DH for most of the second half of his career.
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections, one AL Silver Slugger for outfield. Finished a close second for the 1989 AL MVP (behind Yount) and probably should have won, but such things happen. Led AL in games played once, slugging once, triples once, total bases once, RBI once (all in that 1989 season), and outfield assists once.
Postseason glory: Member of five postseason teams, including the 2003 AL champion Yankees. Hit .264 / .333 / .549 in 31 games, 105 PA, with 5 doubles, 3 triples, 5 HR, 21 RBI, and 11 walks. Sierra certainly was doing his part.

Sierra was another fun player to watch -- I saw him often when he was with the Rangers. He wasn't much for taking a walk and would swing freely, but was better at both than his teammate and fellow candidate Juan Gonzalez. Sierra had some control to his plate approach. He was a very good hitter, but after age 27 he just petered out, though he hung around forever, but a DH who cannot hit better than league-average is not an asset. Not winning the 1989 AL MVP bothered him, he's said as much, but how long can resentment last? If he had more to prove, he didn't spend a lot of years proving it, because after 1992 he was nothing special -- a brief surge in 2001, but that was it. Being an adequate backup outfielder with the capability of hitting a pinch HR from either side must have been key to him keeping a job in the majors for so long. Sierra looks more like a might-have-been than a certainly-was. Nice to think of him again, but there's no second ballot next year.

Chipmaker's vote: no.

22. Lee Smith (career statistics | reviewed on 2011, 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 10th (five remaining).
Peak return: 47.3% (2010).
2011 return: 45.3%

Career: 18 seasons, 1980-97 -- Chicago Cubs 1980-87, Boston Red Sox 1988-90, St. Louis Cardinals 1990-93, New York Yankees 1993, Baltimore Orioles 1994, California Angels 1995-96, Cincinnati Reds 1996, Montréal Expos 1997.
Peak season: 1991 -- 6-3, 47 saves, 2.34, 67 K, 157 ERA+, 1.137 WHIP, 2.6 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1982, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1990, 1994.
Career WAR: 30.3 (as a pitcher).
Primary position: relief pitcher (right handed), primarily a closer.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections, three Rolaids Relief Awards (two NL, one AL). Led league in saves four times. Held the career record for saves from 1993 to 2006; currently third all-time.
Postseason glory: Only appeared with two postseason teams, the 1984 Cubs and the 1988 Red Sox, and got bloodied pretty harshly both times: 0-2, 8.44, in 4 games, 5.1 innings, 7 strikeouts (to only one walk). That's part of the risks of being the closer -- you only get a small amount of innings to do your stuff, and if you get pounded, everything looks much worse than it was (it was bad, but the stats look disastrous).

I think Smith measures up well when compared with the relievers who are in the Hall, and was an excellent pitcher in his own right with periods of greatness. Relief pitchers are still building a profile-in-progress for Hall evaluation, and I think Smith would well serve bringing that profile into clearer focus should he get the plaque. (Alas, middle relievers will continue to be utterly screwed here, but it's difficult to undertake more than one or two causes at a time.)

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! As before, and satisfied to say so.

23. Alan Trammell (career statistics | reviewed on 2011, 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 11th (four remaining).
Peak return: 24.3% (2011).
2011 return: 24.3%

Career: 20 seasons, 1977-96 -- Detroit Tigers all the while.
Peak season: 1987 -- 205 hits, 34 doubles, 28 HR, 105 RBI, 109 runs scored, 21 stolen bases (against 2 caught steals), .343 / .402 / .551, 155 OPS+, 8.4 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1993.
Career WAR: 66.9.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Six All-Star selections, 1984 World Series MVP, four AL Gold Gloves, three AL Silver Sluggers.
Postseason glory: Member of two postseason teams, including the 1984 World Series champion Tigers. Provided .333 / .404 / .588 in 13 games, 58 PA, with 2 doubles, 3 HR, 11 RBI, 6 walks.

Baseball bonus points: Trammell was manager of the Tigers for three seasons, 2003-05. This part of Trammell's career does nothing to help his Hall candidacy.

That 1984 team was really something, and Trammell was a big part of it.

Now that Ron Santo has vacated his spot in the small Best Player Not In The Hall circle, I think Trammell steps in to fill the opening. For years I've seen him as being really, really close to Hall class but not quite there -- and with Larkin alongside him on the ballot, and probably imminently inducted, it's hard to keep thinking that. But I value seasons before career totals, and Trammell's seasons seesawed. From 1978 to 1993 -- 13 consecutive seasons playing full time, two more part time (1991, '93), and one we'll overlook (1992, 29 games), Tram's adjusted OPS went up and down: 89, 95, 113, 91, 97, 138, 135, 89, 120, 155, 137, 85, 130, 90, (114), 138. He didn't play more than 76 games in his last three seasons, and his hitting showed why.

That up-and-down, that inability to sustain his peak and keep his offensive value above league average consistently, drives me nuts. What was he missing? What held him back? Granted that OPS+ numbers in the high 80s or 90s are not bad, but this is the Hall under consideration, and league-average should be the minimum. Trammell cracked 100 (usually easily) eight times, and fell below seven times. (Larkin? OPS+ of 100 or more, thirteen straight seasons.)

My general consideration for the Hall is "sustained greatness", and for me, Trammell is missing -- just missing -- on the "sustained" part, and that's dampening the "greatness" part a bit as well.

I need someone to convince me otherwise, but I'm still placing him on the other side of the velvet rope.

Chipmaker's vote: no. Very, very close, but still "no".

24. Larry Walker (career statistics | reviewed on 2011 ballot)

Year on ballot: 2nd (13 remaining).
Peak return: 20.3% (2011).
2011 return: 20.3%

Career: 17 seasons, 1989-2005 -- Montreal Expos 1989-94, Colorado Rockies 1995-2004, St. Louis Cardinals 2004-05.
Peak season: 1997 -- 208 hits, 46 doubles, 49 HR, 130 RBI, 143 runs scored, 409 total bases, .366 / .452 /.720, 178 OPS+, 9.0 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 1993, 1994, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2002.
Career WAR: 67.3.
Primary position: right fielder.
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections (four starts), 1997 NL MVP Award, seven NL Gold Gloves, three NL Silver Sluggers. Led league in batting three times, on-base percentage twice, slugging twice, doubles once, HR once, assists by a right fielder three times. Member of the 2004 NL champion Cardinals, and hit the only two homers St. Louis had against Boston in the World Series.
Postseason glory: member of three postseason teams, including the 2004 NL champion Cardinals. Batted .230 / .350 / .510 in 28 games, 121 PA, with 5 doubles, 7 HR, 15 RBI, and 16 walks. Walker was pretty much the only St. Louis player who showed up against the 2004 Red Sox in the World Series, hitting the only two Cardinals home runs.

Walker played in 1988 games -- 604 in Denver (both as a Rockie and a visiting player) and 1384 games elsewhere.

Walker in Denver: 604 games, 2163 at-bats, 823 hits, 181 doubles, 32 triples, 155 HR, .380 batting, .461 on-base, .709 slugging.

Walker elsewhere: 1384 games, 4744 at-bats, 1337 hits, 290 doubles, 30 triples, 228 HR, .282 batting, .372 on-base, .500 slugging.

The first line is, of course, insane, but that second line is pretty darn good. Let's pro-rate his non-Denver stats up to his career games total.

Walker pro-rated: 1988 games, 6814 at-bats, 1920 hits, 417 doubles, 43 triples, 328 HR, .282, .372, .500.

That's Larry Walker had he not played in Denver ever, and it's a very good line. Is it Hall good? Eh; it's not real, but combined with his excellent defense I'd probably go for it. But of course he did play in Denver, and took better advantage of the rarefied air than probably anyone else, and put up fantastic numbers. Even allowing for the Coors Effect, Walker was superb, a genuinely great hitter. Adjusted OPS adjusts for home parks, and even adjusting, Walker could and did hit the crap out of the ball.

I didn't support him in 2011 only because I already had ten names. That's not the case this year, and I'm glad to back his candidacy.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

25. Bernie Williams (career statistics)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 16 seasons, 1991-2006 -- a lifelong New York Yankee.
Peak season: 1998 -- .339 / .422 / .575, 101 runs, 30 doubles, 26 HR, 97 RBI, 74 walks, 160 OPS+, 6.1 WAR (despite playing in only 128 games).
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002.
Career WAR: 47.3.
Primary position: center field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections, one AL Silver Slugger for outfield, four AL Gold Gloves for outfield, 1998 AL batting champion. Led AL in outfielder putouts once.
Postseason glory: Plenty! Member of 12 postseason teams, including the 1996 & 1998-2000 World Series champion Yankees. Batted .275 / .371 / .480 in 121 games, 545 PA (that's practically an extra season), with 83 runs, 128 hits, 29 doubles, 22 HR, 80 RBI, and 71 walks. Named the 1996 ALCS MVP.

Bernie Williams, long considered by many to be the headliner first year name on this ballot, and thought by few to be Hall class. Let's take a look.

Huh. Other than the one batting title, he never led the AL in anything, but he always produced -- nine consecutive seasons with an OPS+ of 119 or better. He only played 150+ games twice, but during that nine-season run he ony played in fewer than 128 games once, and that was the short 1994 season. So reliability is a bit off, but that's not a terribly harsh criticism. He completely lost it after age 33, probably should not have been in center or even in the starting lineup his last two seasons, but the Yankees have long valued loyalty, and the team had enough oomph to carry him as supercargo.

I'm seeing more reason to support Williams' candidacy than I am seeing reasons not to do so. Therefore -- yes. Bernie for the Hall. I don't think he'll get in this time, possibly not ever, but his plaque would be a solid addition to the collection.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

26. Tony Womack (career statistics)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 13 seasons, 1993-94 & 1996-2006 -- Pittsburgh Pirates 1993-94 & '96-98, Arizona Diamondbacks 1999-2003, Colorado Rockies 2003, Chicago Cubs 2003 & '06, St. Louis Cardinals 2004, New York Yankees 2005, Cincinnati Reds 2006.
Peak season: 2004 -- .307 / .349 / .385, 91 runs, 22 doubles, 5 HR, 38 RBI, 26 stolen bases, 91 OPS+, 3.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1997, 1998, 1999, but only for the stolen bases and success rates.
Career WAR: 1.2. Yes, one point two.
Primary position: middle infielder (played a little more second base than shortstop).
Honoraria and claims to fame: one All-Star selection, led NL in stolen bases three times, triples once, singles once.
Postseason glory: member of five postseason teams, including the 2001 World Series champion Diamondbacks. Hit .212 / .250 / .276 in 40 games, 167 PA, with 6 doubles, 2 triples, 6 RBI, and 4 stolen bases. Signature moment came in the bottom of the ninth in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series, when Womack slashed a double to right field off Mariano Rivera, scoring the tying run, and moments later the Snakes were champions.

Womack's only significant skill was his basestealing -- his career success rate is 83%, par with Raines, and over the three seasons when he led the NL in steals (1997-99) his aggregate was 87%. Those are fantastic numbers -- but those are the only fantastic numbers he has in his Hall candidacy, and they're not nearly enough.

Chipmaker's vote: no.

27. Eric Young (career statistics)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 15 seasons, 1992-2006 -- Los Angeles Dodgers 1992 & 1998-99, Colorado Rockies 1993-97, Chicago Cubs 2000-01, Milwaukee Brewers 2002-03, San Francisco Giants 2003, Texas Rangers 2004 & 2006, San Diego Padres 2005-06.
Peak season: 1996 -- .324 / .393 / .421, 113 runs, 184 hits, 23 doubles, 8 HR, 74 RBI, 53 stolen bases, 98 OPS+, 3.8 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1998, 2000, though only if we don't look too closely.
Career WAR: 17.0.
Primary position: second base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: one All-Star selection, one NL Silver Slugger for second base, led NL in stolen bases once, triples once. Stole six bases in one game in 1996, including consecutive steals of second, third, and home.
Postseason glory: Member of two postseason teams, and did really well, providing .409 / .458 / .727 in seven games, 24 PA, with 2 HR and 5 RBI. But both teams, the 1995 Rockies and the 2005 Padres, were eliminated in the Division Series.

Young was barely a league-average hitter, a pretty good but not elite base stealer (career rate 73%), and an adequate fielder. He had a good career, but not nearly a great one, and I can think of only one item to add -- his son, Eric Jr., has been a Rockies part-time player for the past three seasons. Young was a father at 18, and he's gotta be prouder than punch that his boy is following his footsteps. The son is no better a player, but he's in the majors. That's better than any honors.

Chipmaker's vote: no.

Wrapping up

My candidates: Jeff Bagwell, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Dale Murphy, Tim Raines, Tim Salmon, Lee Smith, Larry Walker, and Bernie Williams -- which, unfortunately, is eleven names, so I have to cut one. I already decided Salmon is my last choice, so, yes, I have to toss Salmon off the boat.

We learn the results later today, Monday, January 9.

The Hall's 2012 Golden Era ballot -- the results

2011-12-05T20:20:00.000-08:00

Ron Santo has been elected to the Hall of Fame.

Ron Santo has been elected to the Hall of Fame!

Ron Santo has been elected to the Hall of Fame!

Well, that is a happy outcome, and an announcement long, long overdue.

Here's the numbers:

2012 Hall of Fame Golden Era ballot

16 ballots.
12 votes (75%) required for election.

--- elected ---
1. Ron Santo ........... 15 ... 93.8%
--- not elected ---
2. Jim Kaat ............ 10 ... 62.5%
3t. Gil Hodges .......... 9 ... 56.3%
3t. Minnie Minoso ....... 9 ... 56.3%
5. Tony Oliva ........... 8 ... 50.0%
6t. Buzzie Bavasi ....... <3 .. ≤12.5%
6t. Ken Boyer ........... <3 .. ≤12.5%
6t. Charlie O. Finley ... <3 .. ≤12.5%
6t. Allie Reynolds ...... <3 .. ≤12.5%
6t. Luis Tiant .......... <3 .. ≤12.5%

I am overjoyed that Santo has at last been accorded the eternal bronze plaque which he has been due since he first stepped off the diamond. And, yes, it is bittersweet that he is gone, died just over a year ago, and is not here to bask in official glory. But the Hall's mandate is to honor the greats of baseball for all time, not merely to confer honor upon those still living so they can enjoy it (and significantly boost their autograph fees). Being alive to appreciate the honor is a tremendous bonus, but not the point. Letting future fans know that this was a great player, among the very best, is.

I'm a bit curious about the 15 vote return -- which one elector withheld his vote? We'll probably never know and I'm merely piqued about it, but this does make Santo the only known honoree ever to fall only one vote short of being elected unanimously... which may be an outcome the Hall would prefer to avoid ever happening, albeit unofficially. The primary BBWAA electorate has over 500 votes -- it is simply inconceivable that that body will ever deliver a 100.0% return. But a small committee -- and the Golden Era committee had a headcount of only 16 -- could do it. Oh, this doesn't matter, I'm just musing upon a vague conspiracy theory -- Jane takes aside one trusted elector and makes it clear that no one, ever, gets unanimity, and then one ballot gets turned in blank -- and will gladly, gladly let it go in the wake of Santo's election.

Stand proud today, Chicago. One of your own has ascended Olympus.

So, what's next? The 2013 voting cycle will bring the Pre-Integration Era ballot, and we can only guess at what names will be on it. The Golden Era ballot, provided the Hall does not revamp this process yet again, won't be back until the 2015 cycle -- but barring any changes, the ballot will likely have several of the same names and a few others, familiar but didn't make the cut this time. Names like Hodges, Oliva, Kaat, Maris, probably some other Yankee -- after a few more times around, or even in the immediate aftermath of this very ballot, the defined era will have been thoroughly mined of worthy candidates and either will elect no one or will elect lesser candidates that have not been overlooked or underappreciated, but truly are wanting a bit when it comes to earning the honor of the Hall.

Seriously, who is left from the 1947-72 era whom would merit induction? I'm not a Hodges supporter, but recognize that he has a lot of fans who will not relent their drumbeat unless and until they get their happy ending, and I won't argue against their position. I'll stand fast with Minoso's candidacy. Joe Torre will get his due when he stands as a managerial candidate. Dick Allen will never get elected unless he gets to convene as an electoral committee of himself. Maris simply does not measure up. Flood, as a player, doesn't measure up either, and the Hall doesn't really have a pathway for honoring basic courage. With Santo off the ballot, the era is that much thinner in interesting candidates. We will see the same names, again and again, with much the same results. After another few cycles, I'm uncertain what purpose that might serve.

Most likely the Hall will revamp the process yet again. It's becoming something of a tradition.

It's been a heady few years for my Hall advocates. Blyleven got elected, now Santo... I have drums yet to beat (Raines, Edgar Martinez, Marvin Miller), but these successes have been delightful.

Congratulations to Ron Santo (in memoriam), the Santo family, the Chicago Cubs (and White Sox), Cub fandom, and baseball fans everywhere. No need for review; this call was made perfectly.

The Hall's 2012 BBWAA ballot -- The Candidates

2011-12-04T10:11:00.000-08:00

Last week, the Baseball Hall of Fame released its 2012 ballot for consideration by the eligible members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, or BBWAA. Electors have until the end of December to submit their ballots, with the results announced on Monday, January 9, 2012.

The ballot has 27 candidates, 14 returning and 13 rookies.

Returning candidates: Jeff Bagwell, Juan Gonzalez, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, Rafael Palmeiro, Tim Raines, Lee Smith, Alan Trammell, Larry Walker.

Rookie candidates: Jeromy Burnitz, Vinny Castilla, Brian Jordan, Javy Lopez, Bill Mueller, Terry Mulholland, Phil Nevin, Brad Radke, Tim Salmon, Ruben Sierra, Bernie Williams, Tony Womack, Eric Young.

That's a rather lackluster bunch of first timers -- good players, but no one who jumps out as being Hall material. Well, I'll get to my candidate reviews over the next week or two and see what I think after closer scrutiny.

Candidates I have supported previously (and have no plans to abandon) include Bagwell, Larkin, Martinez, McGriff, McGwire, Murphy, Raines, and Smith. I had to cut Walker last year -- I limit myself to ten candidates, which is the actual ballot constraint -- and expect to endorse him this year. The newcomers? Eh. Again, no one jumps out.

The Hall's 2012 Golden Era ballot -- candidate reviews

2011-12-03T02:24:00.001-08:00

In early November, the Baseball Hall of Fame released its ballot slate for the 2012 Golden Era Committee vote, which is coming up later this weekend.

Reading through the official press release, it scrupulously avoids using the term "Veterans Committee" anywhere, and references the more formal "Committee on Baseball Veterans" only once, and there in a historical context. So the rebranding must be considered complete -- there's a wink and a nod, yes, everyone knows this is the current edition of the VC (which has undergone three major revisions since 2003), but the name has moved on. Fine.

The current format parcels out history into three eras, and this ballot covers the second such era in the voting cycle. Named the Golden Era -- which I consider a dismal and biased choice of a name, but won't get up in arms about -- it covers candidates who saw the bulk of their baseball career fall into the 1947-72 frame. The Hall does not appear to explain why those years were chosen as endpoints, though the start was probably due to Jackie Robinson and Larry Doby breaking down the color barrier in both leagues, but it was a tumultuous time in baseball. Besides integration, there were numerous relocations, expansion, realignment into divisions and expanded postseason play, and increased media coverage as television (and radio) grew. Baseball also saw the players union grow some serious teeth, but that's not something many in the seats of power prefer to acknowledge. It was a real effect nonetheless.

Turning to the candidates, I find this ballot mildly depressing. Not the names as such -- there's some strong and real talent among the players, and the executives are interesting names to consider. But it is unavoidable that all ten candidates have been on at least one VC ballot since the 2003 revamping and, obviously, none have been elected. Everyone here is a retread candidate. While I still hold out hope for Santo, the worthiest name (again) on this ballot, it feels a bit like a mundane exercise in rubber-stamping. "Ho-hum, him again..." Ah, well.

Our candidates: players Ken Boyer, Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, Minnie Minoso, Tony Oliva, Allie Reynolds, Ron Santo, Luis Tiant, and executives Buzzie Bavasi and Charlie O. Finley.

The *asterisk denotes which team I think will adorn the candidate's Hall cap, if elected.

The Players

1. Ken Boyer (playing career | managing career | reviewed on 2007 VC ballot)

Personal status: deceased.

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA: the full 15 ballots, peaking at 25.5%.
Veterans: 2003, 13.6% (11 of 81 votes); 2005, 18.8% (15/80); 2007, 11.0% (9/82).

Primary position: third base.
Playing career: 15 seasons -- *St. Louis Cardinals (1955-65), New York Mets (1966-67), Chicago White Sox (1967-68), Los Angeles Dodgers (1968-69).
Standout season: 1960 -- 151 games, 95 runs, 168 hits, 26 doubles, 10 triples, 32 HR, 97 RBI, .304 / .370 / .562, 143 OPS+, 6.2 WAR.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1958, 1959, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964.
Career WAR: 58.4.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 1964 NL MVP, seven All-Star selections, five NL Gold Gloves at third base (1958-61, '63), led NL in RBI once. Member of the 1964 World Series champion, and played well, hitting two homers.

Baseball bonus points: managed the Cardinals for three seasons (one full, two partial) but to little distinction. One of three brothers who played in the majors.

Boyer was an outstanding defensive third baseman, and that's one of the tougher positions to play well. And he could hit pretty well, though he wasn't great at it. Still, position matters, and he was really, really good at 3B. Unfortunately, he had the bad timing to be playing exactly contemporarily with Brooks Robinson and Ron Santo, two of the few who could equal or exceed Boyer with the bat and with the glove, with the result that he never looks greater than third-best of his era. That's some hard beans to swallow, and note Santo hasn't been elected to the Hall yet. I've been willing to cut Boyer enough slack to support his candidacy, with the caveat that I do not rank him before Santo. He's sufficiently Hall-worthy to me, but I doubt he'll get elected.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! ...as long as Santo gets in first.

2. Gil Hodges (playing career | managing career | reviewed on 2007 VC and 2009 VC ballots)

Personal status: deceased.

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA: the full 15 ballots, peaking at 63.4% on his last one.
Veterans: 2003, 61.7% (50/81); 2005, 65.0% (52/80); 2007, 61.0% (50/82); 2009, 43.8% (28/64).

Primary position: first base.
Playing career: 18 seasons -- *Brooklyn/Los Angeles Dodgers 1943 & '47-61, New York Mets 1962-63.
Standout season: 1954 -- 154 games (led NL), 106 runs, 176 hits, 25 doubles, 42 HR, 130 RBI, 74 walks, .304 / .373 / .579, 141 OPS+, 6.2 WAR.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1951, 1952, 1953, 1955.
Career WAR: 44.6.
Honoraria and claims to fame: eight All-Star selections, three NL Gold Gloves at first base, games played twice. Member of two World Series champion teams (1955, 1959) and five other NL champions. Jersey #14 retired by the Mets.

Baseball bonus points: managed for nine seasons, the second Washington Senators for five years and the New York Mets for four. Brought home the 1969 World Series championship, but there's nothing special outside of that one miraculous season. Hit four home runs in one game, 31-August-1950.

Hodges continues to carry a lot of popular support as a Hall candidate, but I'm not one of his legion of fans on this matter. I consider him to stand just behind Santo as The Best Player Not In The Hall when it comes to olde-tymer voting, and someone has to hold that title. Hodges, to me, has the ideal profile for it: reasonably long career, very good player with a sustained peak, had some signature moments and lots of postseason exposure, but never quite reached greatness for a full season; bumped up against it but never took that necessary step up. Hodges benefited greatly from playing in Brooklyn and contributing -- and he was a big part, no doubt -- to many winning teams, but if he'd done the same elsewhere with lesser teammates who couldn't win NL pennants consistently, he'd have been dismissed long ago.

That said, if ever Hodges does get elected, I will have no objection to it. He was a very good player; he just doesn't quite measure up to what I want to see in Hall honorees. Almost, but no.

Chipmaker's vote: no.

3. Jim Kaat (playing career | reviewed on 2007 VC and 2009 VC ballots)

Personal status: living, turned 73 in November 2011.

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA: the full 15 ballots, peaking at 29.6%.
Veterans: 2005, 53.8% (43/80); 2007, 63.4% (52/82); 2009, 59.4% (38/64).

Primary position: LH starting pitcher (pitched mostly in relief in his last five seasons).
Playing career: 25 seasons -- Washington Senators/*Minnesota Twins 1959-73, Chicago White Sox 1973-75, Philadelphia Phillies 1976-79, New York Yankees 1979-80, St. Louis Cardinals 1980-83.
Standout season: 1966 -- 25-13 (wins led AL), 41 games (all starts, led AL), 19 complete games (led AL), 304.2 IP (led AL), 205 K, 2.75 ERA, 131 ERA+, 1.070 WHIP, 3.9 WAR.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1962, 1965, 1972, 1974, 1975.
Career WAR: 41.2.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections, 1966 The Sporting News AL Pitcher Of The Year, 16 Gold Gloves at pitcher (14 AL, 2 NL), led league in wins once, complete games once, shutouts once. Three 20+ win seasons. Member of the 1982 World Series champion Cardinals, played in three other postseasons (member of eight teams that reached the postseason, but didn't always get to play). His 25 seasons played shared the record for longest career until Tommy John surpassed it.

I like great seasons more than good-looking career summary stats -- a great season does more to contribute to winning a postseason berth, which is the annual goal, so I favor a great year. Hall honorees should put up a lot of them. Kaat did not; a few were great or at least really good, but most of his seasons were unremarkable. A good player to have but not a difference-maker. I haven't supported his candidacy before and see no reason to start doing so now. The sixteen Gold Gloves is impressive, but it was never impressive enough for even one-third of the BBWAA to vote for Kaat, and they do nothing more for me.

Chipmaker's vote: no.

4. Minnie Minoso (playing career | Negro Leagues career | reviewed on 2007 VC ballot)

Personal status: living, turned 86 (at least) in November 2011.

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA: the full 15 ballots, peaking at 21.1%.
Veterans: 2003, 19.8% (16/81); 2005, 15.0% (12/80); 2007, 14.6% (12/82).
2006 Special Committee: not elected (obviously); results were not released, but Minoso got less than 75%, which means fewer than nine votes on the 12-person electoral committee.

Primary position: left field.
Playing career: 17 seasons -- Cleveland Indians 1949, '51, & '58-59; *Chicago White Sox 1951-57, '60-61, '64, and sideshow appearances in 1976 and 1980; St. Louis Cardinals 1962; Washington Senators 1963. And, not to be overlooked, three seasons with the New York Cubans of the Negro National League 1946-48.
Standout season: 1954 -- 153 games, 119 runs, 182 hits, 29 doubles, 18 triples (led AL), 19 HR, 116 RBI, 77 walks, .320 / .411 / .525, 155 OPS+, 8.3 WAR.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1951, 1953, 1956, 1957, 1958, 1959.
Career WAR: 52.8.
Honoraria and claims to fame: seven All-Star selections, three Gold Gloves for outfield, led league in hits once, doubles once, triples three times, stolen bases three times, total bases once, and hit-by-pitch ten times, which had to hurt but got him on base. Jersey #9 retired by the White Sox. Also a two-time All-Star in the Negro Leagues, and a member of the 1947 champion team.

Minoso was a very good hitter with periods of greatness and a very good fielder with periods of greatness. He sustained his peak very well, though his productivity took a dive off a cliff after age 34. That happens to a lot of players -- though there is doubt about whether Minoso really was 34 or much closer to 40.

We cannot give credit for things not done, but Minoso "lost" playing time -- didn't get to play in Major League Baseball anyway, he did brilliantly in the NNL -- to the slow (but by then inevitable) collapse of the color barrier. "Not allowed the chance to do" is not the same thing as "did not do", and with Minoso I'm quite willing and pleased to give him full credit for his pre-MLB years. I think he measures up to Hall standard, and deserved to be voted in forthwith.

The statistics tell us a great deal, but they can't and don't tell the full story, and with Minoso I think his unabridged version is enough to claim the plaque.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

5. Tony Oliva (playing career | reviewed on 2007 VC and 2009 VC ballots)

Personal status: living, turned 73 in July 2011.

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA: the full 15 ballots, peaking at 47.3%.
Veterans: 2003, 59.3% (48/81); 2005, 56.3% (45/80); 2007, 57.3% (47/82); 2009, 51.6% (33/64).

Primary position: right field (designated hitter in his final three seasons).
Playing career: 15 seasons -- all with the *Minnesota Twins 1962-76.
Standout season: 1964 -- 161 games, 109 runs (led AL), 217 hits (led AL), 43 doubles (led AL), 9 triples, 32 HR, 94 RBI, .323 (led AL) / .359 / .557, 150 OPS+, 5.9 WAR.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1965, 1966, 1970, 1971.
Career WAR: 42.4.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 1964 AL ROY, eight All-Star selections, one AL Gold Glove for outfield, three AL batting titles, led league in slugging once, runs once, hits five times (two 200+ seasons), doubles four times. Member of the 1965 AL champion and 1969-70 AL West champion Twins. Jersey #6 retired by the Twins.

Oliva's 15 seasons is a bit deceptive -- two were early cups of coffee appearances, he lost most of 1972 to a knee injury, and lesser injuries and age confined him to 131 games or less in five other seasons. When he played, he was a very good hitter, despite playing in the 1960s, a notoriously difficult era in which to hit. But he never made the step up to sustained greatness, and for me Oliva stands just behind Hodges and Santo as The Best Player Not In The Hall. So I do not support his candidacy, as before.

Chipmaker's vote: no.

6. Allie Reynolds (playing career | reviewed on 2009 VC ballot)

Personal status: deceased.

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA: 13 ballots (and 2 run-off ballots, a format long abandoned), peaking at 33.6%.
Veterans: 2003, 19.8% (16/81); 2009, 66.7% (8/12).

Primary position: RH starting pitcher.
Playing career: 13 seasons -- Cleveland Indians 1942-46, *New York Yankees 1947-54.
Standout season: 1952 -- 20-8, 35 games (29 starts), 24 complete games, 6 shutouts (led AL), 244.1 IP, 160 K (led AL), 2.06 ERA (led AL), 162 ERA+ (led AL), 1.191 WHIP, 5.3 WAR.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1950, 1951.
Career WAR: 29.0.
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections, AL MVP votes in five seasons, once finishing second and another time third. Led AL in ERA once, strikeouts twice, shutouts twice. Member of six World Series teams (1947, '49-53), all champions, and he was a strong contributor (7-2, 2.79 in 15 games, 9 starts). Threw two no-hitters in 1951, in Cleveland on 12-July and against Boston on 28-September.

Reynolds was a good pitcher, but rarely a great one. His sparkliest career stat is his winning percentage, an impressive .630 (182-107), which is partly due to his own efforts and also because he rarely played on a bad team. The Yankees were great, yes, but those Indians teams were pretty decent as well (middle of the league, but never disastrous), though he was gone before the 1948 championship season. Outside of his one great 1952 season, Reynolds doesn't bring a lot of strong merit to the table. He was a good and useful pitcher but he doesn't belong in the Hall.

Chipmaker's vote: no.

7. Ron Santo (playing career | reviewed on 2007 VC and 2009 VC ballots)

Personal status: deceased.

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA: the full 15 ballots, peaking at 43.1% on his final time.
Veterans: 2003, 56.8% (46/81); 2005, 65.0% (52/80); 2007, 69.5% (57/82); 2009, 60.9% (39/64).

Primary position: third base.
Playing career: 15 seasons -- *Chicago Cubs 1960-73, Chicago White Sox 1974.
Standout season: 1964 -- 161 games, 94 runs, 185 hits, 33 doubles, 13 triples (led NL), 30 HR, 114 RBI, 86 walks (led NL), .313 / .398 (led NL) / .564, 164 OPS+, 7.9 WAR.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1963, 1965, 1966, 1967, 1968, 1969, 1972.
Career WAR: 66.4.
Honoraria and claims to fame: nine All-Star selections, five NL Gold Gloves at third base, led league in OBP twice, triples once, walks four times. Jersey #10 retired by the Cubs.

Great player. Deserves election. Click above and read previous brief essays about Santo if you like, but I have nothing more to add (except that it is sad Ron is now deceased, and won't be here if his name is called to honor).

Chipmaker's vote: YES!

8. Luis Tiant (playing career | reviewed on 2007 VC and 2009 VC ballots)

Personal status: living, turned 71 in November 2011.

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA: the full 15 ballots, peaking at 30.9% on his first try.
Veterans: 2005, 25.0% (20/80); 2007, 18.3% (15/82); 2009, 20.3% (13/64).

Primary position: RH starting pitcher.
Playing career: 19 seasons -- Cleveland Indians 1964-69, Minnesota Twins 1970, *Boston Red Sox 1971-78, New York Yankees 1979-80, Pittsburgh Pirates 1981, California Angels 1982.
Standout season: 1968 -- 21-9, 34 games (32 starts), 19 complete games, 9 shutouts (led AL), 258.1 K, 264 K, 1.60 ERA (led AL), 186 ERA+ (led AL), 0.871 WHIP, 7.2 WAR.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1972, 1973, 1974, 1976, 1978.
Career WAR: 60.1.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections, two AL ERA titles, led league in shutouts three times. Four 20+ win seasons. Member of the 1975 AL champion Red Sox, the 1970 AL West champion Twins, and the 1980 AL East champion Yankees.

I love Looooooie. He was a very good pitcher with periods of greatness, and one of the most entertaining men to ever take the mound, with a dazzling array of windups and numerous pitches. You never knew what he'd show off next. El Tiante was a showman.

He delivered two great seasons and a bunch of above-average ones, good and useful to his teams but not shining brightly enough for the Hall. I'd love to be wrong about his candidacy and see him on an eternal plaque (smoking a huge cigar for preference; I'm no smoker advocate, but for Tiant it was ingrained into his personality and his lasting image), but no, he's not Hall measure and he will not be elected. Sorry, Luis, you were so much fun on the field, but that's not what the Hall is about.

Chipmaker's vote: alas, no.

The Executives

9. Buzzie Bavasi (Wiki bio | career | reviewed on 2007 VC and 2008 VC ballots)

Personal status: deceased.

Previous Hall consideration
Veterans: 2003, 43.0% (34/79); 2007, 37.0% (30/81); 2008, ≤16.7% (<3/12).

Baseball career
Business manager for various Dodgers minor league teams, 1939-47 (with time away serving wartime military service.
General Manager, Montreal Royals (Dodgers' top minor league affiliate), 1948-50.
General Manager, Brooklyn/Los Angeles Dodgers, 1951-68.
President, San Diego Padres, 1969-77.
General Manager, California Angels, 1978-84.

Accomplishments
Championships: 1955 Brooklyn Dodgers, 1959, '63, & '65 Los Angeles Dodgers.
Other postseason appearances: 1952-53, '56, '66 Dodgers; 1979 & 1982 Angels.
Honors: 1959 The Sporting News Major League Executive of the Year. Inducted into the San Diego Hall of Champions, 2007.
Other: Helped baseball integrate by coordinating with Dodgers president Branch Rickey on finding northern location (Nashua, NH) for new minor league affiliate to ease introduction of black players, including Don Newcombe and Roy Campanella (Jackie was already higher up in the farm system). Established "Dodgertown" spring training facility in Vero Beach, FL. Ran the Dodgers for a long time, including the relocation to Los Angeles. Dodgers acquired Sandy Koufax, Don Drysdale, and Don Sutton during his tenure. Drafted Dave Winfield.

Bavasi was around forever, and made some headlines along the way. That long a career, who wouldn't? His tenure with the Dodgers is the meat of his candidacy, and it was a good tenure, marked with four championships and several NL pennants. But as the Brooklyn-sourced Boys of Summer aged and retired, and Sandy fell to arthritis, there wasn't much left of the great Dodgers teams. Bavasi couldn't work any magic in San Diego -- the Padres once finished as high as fourth (of six) during his time there. Sure, building an expansion team is tough, but it can be done, and here it was not. His Angels teams benefited from free agency, picking up Rod Carew and Reggie Jackson (and letting Nolan Ryan go), but it didn't last.

Bavasi was a very good executive but I don't see the greatness a Hall honoree should provide.

Chipmaker's vote: no.

10. Charlie O. Finley (Wiki bio | career | reviewed on 2007 VC ballot)

Personal status: deceased.

Previous Hall consideration
Veterans: 2003, 11.4% (9/79); 2007, 12.3% (10/81).

Baseball career
Owner, Kansas City/Oakland Athletics, 1960-81. Often acted as his own general manager or other operational roles.

Accomplishments
Championships: 1972-74 Oakland Athletics, the only non-Yankees team to win more than two consecutive World Series titles.
Other postseason appearances: 1971, 1975, 1981 Athletics.
Honors: Inducted into the Indiana Baseball Hall of Fame, 1980.
Other: Signed Reggie Jackson, Catfish Hunter, Rollie Fingers, Rickey Henderson. Never short of ideas, Finley proposed orange baseballs, the designated runner, and free agency for all players every season (a notion Marvin Miller feared).

The other team owners quickly tired of Finley's antics and tended to oppose him regardless the merits of his proposals. Finley tried to sell players (in particular, Fingers, Joe Rudi, and Vida Blue) in the wake of the 1975 free agency decision, only to have the deals overruled by Commissioner Bowie Kuhn. Always frugal -- he lost Hunter by arbitration decision after he had failed to fulfill terms of Hunter's contract -- Finley hated free agency and refused to try signing top talent.

Finley tried to move his team several times -- successfully from Kansas City to Oakland, but foiled in other attempts to move to Louisville (from KC), Denver, New Orleans, and other cities. He worked the phones constantly, always looking for information or a good deal. Finley drove people -- other team owners and executives, players, the commissioner, fans, local officials -- absolutely crazy.

His results, particularly after free agency undermined his management style, were not always so impressive -- not to knock the three championships and five consecutive division titles, those were great teams -- were not always sterling, but his efforts to get results were energetic in the extreme, and his ideas were interesting even if sometimes coming, as it were, out of left field.

Finley had a very clever mind, which I admire, and was a nettlesome rake to many who needed to be nettled. I have no delusions that he will be elected, now or ever, but I have supported him before and am glad to do so again. Baseball could use another loose cannon like Charlie O. Finley. Hey, when is Mark Cuban going to get to buy a team?

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! I would never go to the wire for Finley, but he's such a whacko-fun figure that I prefer supporting his candidacy, no matter how futile it is.

Actual electors are limited to four votes, and as it happens I support four of these ten candidates, so I need not cull anyone: Ken Boyer, Minnie Minoso, Ron Santo, and Charlie O. Finley.

If I had only one vote to cast, no question about it, Ron Santo. His election is long overdue. Make the right call this time, Golden Era committee.

The Hall of Fame's 2012 Veterans Committee ballot -- overview

2011-11-11T11:26:00.000-08:00

The Hall has released the 2012 Veterans Committee ballot, with ten candidates. This voting cycle will cover the "Golden Age" (the Hall's term, not mine), the period from 1947-72. Candidates who had the bulk of their career during this time are eligible.

The candidates:
players -- Ken Boyer, Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, Minnie Minoso, Tony Oliva, Allie Reynolds, Ron Santo, Luis Tiant.

executives -- Buzzie Bavasi, Charlie Finley.

I think this is a rather disappointing slate. Not for the lack of quality names; I think the Historical Overview Committee, which composed this ballot, collected about the best harvest of names it could have from the period covered. But everyone on this list is a re-tread, has been on a VC ballot within the last ten years. The Hall imposes no relegation mechanism upon past candidates, not even a short-term, temporary one, in order to induce some churn and force other names to come up for consideration. Such a thing might produce no different results, but at least it would negate much of the predictability, and make things more interesting.

Here's my quick prediction: if anyone gets elected, it will be Santo. If he does not get elected, either Santo or Hodges will have the highest return. Also, the sun will rise in the East.

Anyway... I'll do long evaluations of the candidates soon, but I cannot foresee my opinions of the Hall-worthiness of any of these men changing. I have previously supported Santo (strongly), Boyer (faintly), Minoso (moderately), and Finley (weakly).

Kaat, Minoso, Oliva, and Tiant are still among the living. (If they're going to elect Minoso, they'd best hurry up if he's to enjoy the honor, because he officially turns 86 later this month and may be even older.)

This year's electors:
HOFers/former players (8) -- Hank Aaron, Al Kaline, Ralph Kiner, Tommy Lasorda, Juan Marichal, Brooks Robinson, Don Sutton, Billy Williams.
Executives (5) -- Paul Beeston, Bill DeWitt, Roland Hemond, Gene Michael, Al Rosen.
Media (3) -- Dick Kaegel, Jack O'Connell, Dave Van Dyck.

The Hall's 2011 BBWAA Ballot -- The Results

2011-01-16T09:10:00.000-08:00

I don't do this for a living -- that's probably obvious -- so expediency isn't a high priority here -- and I'm certain that is glaringly obvious.

So, a week and a half later, let's wrap up the 2011 Hall of Fame ballot results.

Congratulations go to newest Hall honorees, in alphabetical order, Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven!!!

Yeah, I'm happy-delighted-ecstatic about Blyleven gaining the plaque. Long overdue, a long and uphill battle on the Web was fought, and the forces of good have prevailed. Yay!

2011 results

581 ballots submitted (a new record).
436 votes (75%) needed for election.
30 votes (5%) needed to stay on the ballot.

...candidate.......... votes.. %.. (remaining ballots)

--- ELECTED ---
1. Roberto Alomar..... 523.. 90.0%
2. Bert Blyleven...... 463.. 79.7%
--- not elected ---
3. Barry Larkin....... 361.. 62.1%... (13)
4. Jack Morris........ 311.. 53.5%... (3)
5. Lee Smith.......... 263.. 45.3%... (6)
6. Jeff Bagwell....... 242.. 41.7%... (14)
7. Tim Raines......... 218.. 37.5%... (11)
8. Edgar Martinez..... 191.. 32.9%... (13)
9. Alan Trammell...... 141.. 24.3%... (5)
10. Larry Walker...... 118.. 20.3%... (14)
11. Mark McGwire...... 115.. 19.8%... (10)
12. Fred McGriff...... 104.. 17.9%... (13)
13. Dave Parker........ 89.. 15.3%... candidacy expired
14. Don Mattingly...... 79.. 13.6%... (4)
15. Dale Murphy........ 73.. 12.6%... (2)
16. Rafael Palmeiro.... 64.. 11.0%... (14)
17. Juan Gonzalez...... 30... 5.2%... (14)
--- relegated ---
18. Harold Baines...... 28... 4.8%
19. John Franco........ 27... 4.7%
20. Kevin Brown........ 12... 2.1%
21. Tino Martinez....... 6... 1.0%
22t. Marquis Grissom.... 4... 0.7%
22t. Al Leiter.......... 4... 0.7%
22t. John Olerud........ 4... 0.7%
25. BJ Surhoff.......... 2... 0.3%
26t. Bret Boone......... 1... 0.2%
26t. Benito Santiago.... 1... 0.2%
28t. Carlos Baerga...... 0... 0.0%
28t. Lenny Harris....... 0... 0.0%
28t. Bobby Higginson.... 0... 0.0%
28t. Charles Johnson.... 0... 0.0%
28t. Raul Mondesi....... 0... 0.0%
28t. Kirk Rueter........ 0... 0.0%

Candidates I supported: Alomar, Bagwell, Blyleven, Larkin, Edgar Martinez, McGwire, McGriff, Murphy, Raines, and Smith. I was also in support of, but limited myself to ten candidates so had to cull them, Brown, Franco, and Walker.

Running down the ballot...

The electees:
Alomar (+16.4%) weathered his first-ballot slap on the wrist just fine. There can be other reasons why a candidate gains so greatly in one year, but this one was obvious. It was an embargo, but never intended to be a permanent one.

Blyleven (+5.5%) -- FINALLY!

The 2012 returning candidates:
Larkin (+10.6%) will make it, probably in 2012.

Morris (+1.2%) showed negligible movement and no promise. Unless he gets a tremendous push in the next three years -- and upcoming ballots look to be clogged with superior first-time candidates, which won't help his cause -- he's not going to make it. I'm awaiting the Morris proponents, particularly the ones who were not in favor of Blyleven, to start using the "Bert is in, Jack should be too" argument. They probably won't even notice the irony.

Smith (-2.0%) also didn't really move. He's got some years yet, and I think his election would enhance the "Hall reliever profile" that is slowly taking shape, but I recognize his candidacy is not looking promising.

Bagwell started well, but not as well as I think he should have gotten. The whispering campaign about him, that he played during the steroid era and lookit those forearms! and therefore dot dot dot, is utterly disgusting (and also cowardly, as no one will fill in the "dot dot dot" -- mainly because they cannot, no matter how much they want to do so). Turn up evidence, you alleged reporters, or swallow your egos and your collective failure to capture the steroid scandal in real time and cast this man his well-deserved votes. Bagwell is a Hall of Fame class player and person and you know it!

Raines (+7.1%) made a nice gain, has a lot of years left, and with the Blyleven candidacy closed (properly) he's probably going to be the next championed cause of the sabermetric crowd. He deserves that support and he deserves the plaque. Let's get on it!

Edgar Martinez (-3.3%) needs that support as well, though as a designated hitter, his battle is much more steeply uphill. The Hall will have to recognize a primary DH (Molitor doesn't really count) some day, and it may as well start with the very best ever, and that man is Edgar.

Trammell (+1.8%) is going nowhere and running out of time. I can see his case; I don't agree with it enough, but it's a good argument, better than many others.

Walker has to fight the reputation of Coors Field. That won't be easy, but at least it's an easier argument to debate than what the Blyleven cause had to contend against.

McGwire (-4.0%) lost a bit of support (not just from the higher return, he did lose a few votes) after his "yes, I used steroids" confession. Well, at least he didn't completely tank. That really was the last card he had to play, so unless the electorate undergoes a sea change in attitude (which could happen, but will not any time soon), he's a dead candidate walking. Or hanging around the batting cage, at least.

McGriff (-3.6%) is supposed to be one of those guys who, many think, would benefit from being perceived as clean despite playing in the notorious steroid era. I've always thought that was a spurious argument, that most voters don't approach their ballot that way, boosting guys who have a higher standing in public perception, and it certainly does not appear to hold water, because this notion isn't helping Murphy either. Voters seem to need to have a great deal of reason to vote for a candidate -- and they should -- but very little reason to vote against (okay, "not for") even the worthiest of candidates.

Mattingly (-2.5%) is going nowhere.

Murphy (+0.9%) is also going nowhere.

Palmeiro -- well, at least he stayed on the ballot, with a 6% margin, which should be large enough to buy him some grace time. With potentially 14 years more as a BBWAA candidate, he could benefit if the sea change arrives. I sincerely doubt it, either that it will come to pass during his window or that his candidacy would improve enough to see him elected, but at least he should last long enough to provide some interesting data.

Gonzalez survived by the thinnest whisker possible (one fewer vote and he'd be in the next candidate class, below). He may hang around a few years, but eventually he'll fall off. Nothing to see here.

The relegated candidates:
Parker (+0.1%) got no last-ballot sympathy, and is off the ballot. It happens.

Baines (-1.3%) still had his hardcore Chicago contingent of supporters, but the larger ballot return this time swamped them, and he went from skirting the retention edge to falling just over it. Doesn't upset me.

The remainder of the relegated candidates were all ballot rookies, and I have comments about only two of them, so the rest -- Tino Martinez, Grissom, Leiter, Olerud, Surhoff, Boone, Santiago, Baerga, Harris, Higginson, Johnson, Mondesi, and Rueter -- just get one last mention, and a wave farewell. You were good players all, guys, and you deserved being on the Hall ballot, even if just the one time. That's more than most players get.

So, those last two players.

Brown was a damn good pitcher -- not Clemens/Maddux/Johnson/Martinez class, but in the next step down for his era, with Mussina and Schilling. He had, I think, three strikes against him -- one, a perceived bad attitude or poor interpersonal skills, at least with the media; two, that monster $105M contract and the notion that he never lived up to it (he had good seasons and poor ones under that deal), and "not living up to it" is almost a cardinal sin to the baseball press; and three, steroids allegations, reasonably well-supported in the Mitchell Report. However, as much as some writers like to be anti-steroids scolds, in Brown's case this was probably the least important of the strikes against him. The writers just did not like the guy. I had little hopes he would get the plaque (ever), but he deserved better than this anemic return, a few more turns on the ballot at least. It is not to be.

Franco also deserved better. What is it with relievers, that the electorate either ushers them in immediately (Eckersley), after a loooooong wait (Sutter, Gossage, maybe Smith), or dismisses them rather harshly? Franco was a very good pitcher, and I supported him, though with only faint hopes he ever would get elected. That wasn't really my cause anyway; what I really would like to see, and I've mentioned this more than once in recent years (regarding Orosco and Jackson in particular), is a reliever to stay on the ballot so that more dialogue can be held regarding relief pitchers and what it takes to measure up to the standards of the Hall. Closers, at least, have save stats (no matter that they are woefully flawed) -- middle relievers are really screwed here -- but Franco's hefty saves total didn't help him a bit. And so, he's gone, and so is another golden opportunity to drive discussion about relief pitchers. The message the voters are giving is mixed -- okay, there should only be a few ever good enough for Cooperstown, but to have a candidate like Franco booted at the start doesn't leave any middle ground, someone to think about for a while. I'd settle for reading reasons why Franco was considered, by almost all the voters, not good enough a reliever, because he certainly is comparable to those already in and the one continuing candidate. It is extremely difficult to resolve a pattern here.

Looking ahead to the 2012 ballot, the returnees include Bagwell, Gonzalez, Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Mattingly, McGriff, McGwire, Morris, Murphy, Palmeiro, Raines, Smith, Trammell, and Walker. Eight of those are men I've supported, and Walker would have been my 11th candidate this time, so unless I abandon some (something which I try not to do, even a lost cause like Murphy) I'll have only one slot for a new candidate. This, however, will likely not be an issue, because the 2012 rookies are an uninspiring lot. The headliners likely will be Bernie Williams, Tim Salmon, and Javy Lopez. Sure, they were good, sometimes great, but Hall class? Possibly Williams, at most. So some lesser candidates may have a good chance next year, and they'll need it, because the 2013 ballot will be a shockwave -- the first of several upcoming, bursting with rookie candidates -- that well could sweep many away.

The Hall's 2011 BBWAA ballot -- Candidate Wrap-up

2010-12-31T20:53:00.000-08:00

Links to the candidate reviews, so you can read them without a lot of up-and-down scrolling:

Part 1: Alomar, Baerga, Bagwell, Baines, Blyleven, Boone, Brown, Franco.
Part 2: Gonzalez, Grissom, Harris, Higginson, Johnson, Larkin, Leiter, Edgar Martinez.
Part 3: Tino Martinez, Mattingly, McGriff, McGwire, Mondesi, Morris, Murphy, Olerud.
Part 4: Palmeiro, Parker, Raines, Rueter, Santiago, Smith, Surhoff, Trammell, Walker.

So far I have supported 13 candidates: Roberto Alomar, Jeff Bagwell, Bert Blyleven, Kevin Brown, John Franco, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Dale Murphy, Tim Raines, Lee Smith, and Larry Walker.

However, actual BBWAA voters are limited to ten names on their ballots, so I should do the same. Three names have to be cut.

I already noted that, should it come to this, Brown and Franco would be among the first to go. No worries here. Brown, I will acknowledge, does not have a "Hall feel" about him, despite his performances on the field. Franco, whom I hope stays on the ballot, right now has to queue up behind Smith for me. So they indeed are the first two to go.

Of the other 11, nine are returning candidates that I supported before, and I am loathe to surrender any one of them -- even Murphy, whom I recognize is a lost cause. Some are no-doubt names to me: Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, Martinez, McGriff, and Raines. Smith I already changed my view on, to the positive, and I don't want to abandon him again. And, yes, I stand firmly with McGwire. That's nine, leaving only the two ballot rookies, Bagwell and Walker.

I cannot even consider abandoning Bagwell.

That leaves Walker. Sorry, Larry. I think you'll stick around on the ballot, you deserve that at least, and maybe there'll be room for you in my choices for 2012, or later.

Chipmaker's 2011 selections: Roberto Alomar, Jeff Bagwell, Bert Blyleven, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Dale Murphy, Tim Raines, Lee Smith.

Who will the BBWAA actually vote in? I'd put a dollar on the chances of Blyleven and Alomar. After them, Bagwell, though I think not this time (the hints and allegations being slung around about him are disgusting and cowardly), and Larkin.

Ballot returns will be announced on Wednesday, January 5, 2011.

The Hall's 2011 BBWAA ballot -- Candidates Review (part 4 of 4)

2010-12-30T14:14:00.000-08:00

Concluding the review of the 2011 Hall ballot candidates...

25. Rafael Palmeiro (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 20 seasons, 1986-2005 -- Chicago Cubs 1986-88, *Texas Rangers 1989-93 & 1999-2003, Baltimore Orioles 1994-98 & 2004-05.
Peak season: 1993 -- 176 hits, 40 doubles, 37 HR, 105 RBI, 124 runs scored, .295 / .371 / .554, 150 OPS+, 7.4 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1991, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002.
Career WAR: 66.0.
Primary position: first baseman. He DH'd some in his older seasons, but that was his primary role only twice, 1999 and 2003.
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections (one start), two AL Silver Sluggers, three AL Gold Gloves for first base (though the one in 1999 was a bad joke, as he played only 28 games at 1B). Led league in hits once and runs scored once -- but he was in the top ten, and often the top five, in many categories in many seasons. Member of the 500 Home Run Club (569) and 3000 Hits Club (3020).

Mitchell Report: mentioned for having failed a steroids test (stanozolol was found in his system) in 2005, for which he was suspended for ten games. Named by Canseco as having been using under his supervision, possibly as early as 1992.

I'm listing the players in alphabetical order, but I thought I should mention that I saved Palmeiro for last in my evaluations. His candidacy brings all sorts of discussion with it.

Let's talk his playing merits first. Great hitter, excellent power even given hitter-friendly home parks, very good at taking a walk (and plate patience doesn't come from a bottle). If Palmeiro didn't have special circumstances about him, he'd be a first-ballot Hall honoree, and easily.

Alas, it's not easy here. Palmeiro testified before Congress in March 2005, emphatically stating that he had never used steroids -- and then, a few months later, MLB announced that he had failed a steroids test, the first major name so nailed. The sample had been taken in May, Palmeiro had gone through the defined appeals process, and in August he was suspended. When he returned, road crowds were harsh on him, he managed to poke two more hits, the Orioles told him to take the rest of the season off, and he was done. That's an ugly ending to any career.

I really don't care what happened or who did what prior to 2004, when the steroids ban went into effect. No rules means there's no rulebreaking -- and while primary responsibility for PED usage must always fall upon the players who chose to use, the entire culture around Major League Baseball was one of tacit permission. No one asked, no one told, no one wanted to know. The homers were flying, the turnstiles were spinning, the records were falling, most everyone was happy. If you were there, it was a blast watching, following, enjoying baseball. Until, finally, the government put the squeeze on Commissioner Selig and got him to take action, and a number of the players urged their union to cooperate. Whatever happened before 2004, for the most part, the players got away with nearly all of it.

The smart players read the tea leaves and left their steroids behind (or, perhaps, moved to newer, more elusive blends that had not yet been prohibited; getting sneakier is always an appealing option for some). Clearly, Palmeiro did not. He got caught; that he got caught after his bit of theater in Washington just twisted the irony knife all the more.

I'm the sort who can give the benefit of doubt rather easily. Not here. Palmeiro has been vocal, when inclined to speak, that he was caught due to tainted B12 vitamins injected by a teammate. Nice story, but holds water like a sieve. His subsequent actions say much more. If he had done anything to show credulity in his story -- sued Canseco for what he wrote in his book; offered up other samples of himself (blood or, in particular, hair, where traces can linger for months) for testing; offered to sign a 2006 contract for the major league minimum and be tested weekly to clear (or at least slightly polish) his name; maybe even had he, and here I'm stretching, paid some damn attention to what was being put into his body, which as a professional athlete is his single most valuable asset -- that would have helped. No; Palmeiro took his exile. What it adds up to is in sharp conflict with his story, no matter how he sticks to it. I cannot grant him credence, or absolution. He failed a test. He used, inadvertently (which if so was incredibly stupid of him) or deliberately, and after the ban was in place. Bad, bad decision. Here come the bad consequences.

As a player, I would like to support him. Maybe some other year, if he stays on the ballot, I will. Not this time. The writers, I have no doubt, will be playing the Roman Senate to Palmeiro's Caesar this time, their long knives sharpened and polished and at the ready; they've been waiting to spill steroid-laced blood -- McGwire until this past year had some doubt (and retired long before the ban) and Bonds is still two years away -- so Raffy is going to go down, and hard.

I hope he does stay on the ballot. The discussion alone might prove fruitful. His candidacy is toast, though.

Chipmaker's vote: No. Dammit, Palmeiro. Damn you for being such a nitwit.

Prediction: stays on the ballot, but well behind McGwire. Oh, 10%. I don't know, but it'll be a small return.

26. Dave Parker (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 15 (last chance with the BBWAA).
Peak return: 24.5% (1998).
2010 return: 15.2%

Career: 19 seasons, 1973-91 -- *Pittsburgh Pirates 1973-83, Cincinnati Reds 1984-87, Oakland Athletics 1988-89, Milwaukee Brewers 1990, California Angels 1991, Toronto Blue Jays 1991.
Peak season: 1978 -- 194 hits, 32 doubles, 12 triples, 30 HR, 117 RBI, 102 runs scored, 20 stolen bases, .334 / .394 / .585, 166 OPS+, 7.1 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1975, 1977, 1979, 1985.
Career WAR: 37.8.
Primary position: right field, finished as a designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (four starts), 1978 NL MVP, 1979 All-Star MVP, three NL Gold Gloves for OF, three Silver Sluggers (two NL for OF, one AL for DH). Led league in batting twice, slugging twice, hits once, RBI once. Member of two World Series champions, the 1979 Pirates and the 1989 Athletics.

Thought question: which is worse, taking an illegal drug in order to feel good, no matter that it destroys your on-field performance, or taking it to play better? Which one cheats the game more? Which cheats the fans more?

Parker had a chance to be a truly great one. His cocaine abuse prevented that from happening. After this year, he falls off the writers ballot, and while I have no doubts that he'll clog the Veterans Committee ballot whenever his chances arise, I don't think he'll get in. This candidacy should end here.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: gets a little bounce from this being his last time, but it matters little. 20%, and I'm being needlessly generous.

27. Tim Raines (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 4 (11 remaining).
Peak return: 30.4% (2010).
2010 return: 30.4%

Career: 23 seasons, 1979-99 & 2001-02 -- *Montréal Expos 1979-90 & 2001, Chicago White Sox 1991-95, New York Yankees 1996-98, Oakland Athletics 1999, Baltimore Orioles 2001, Florida Marlins 2002.
Peak season: 1987 -- 175 hits, 34 doubles, 8 triples, 18 HR, 68 RBI, 50 stolen bases (caught only five times), 90 walks, .330 / .429 / .526, 149 OPS+, 6.8 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1989, 1992, 1993.
Career WAR: 64.6.
Primary position: left field. Leadoff hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (two starts), 1987 All-Star MVP, one NL Silver Slugger. Led league in batting once, on-base percentage once, runs twice, stolen bases four times. Career 84.7% stolen base success rate is the highest for anyone with 300+ SB. 808 career SB ranks fifth all-time. Member of the 1996 and 1998 World Series champion Yankees. Jersey #30 retired by the Expos.

Raines is the second-best leadoff man in baseball history, behind Rickey Henderson. Being second to Rickey is no shame, because he makes for amazingly good company when ranking the greats. Raines was a great player, and deserves the plaque.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! And Rock is probably the very last chance to put an Expos cap on a plaque, though this is not why I support his candidacy.

Prediction: Increases to 39%. It's gonna take a while.

28. Kirk Rueter (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 13 seasons, 1993-2005 -- Montréal Expos 1993-96, *San Francisco Giants 1996-2005.
Peak season: 2002 -- 14-8, 3.23, 33 starts, 203.2 innings, 76 strikeouts, 120 ERA+, 1.267 WHIP, 2.6 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1993, 1997.
Career WAR: 12.1 (as a pitcher).
Primary position: starting pitcher (left handed).
Honoraria and claims to fame: started his career with a 10-0 record, which must count for something, and indicates just how uninspiring a Hall candidate Rueter is. Member of the 2002 NL champion Giants and the 1994 Montreal Expos, a team always worth remembering.

That line about how just being named on the ballot is an honor? It applies here to Rueter. He was a good pitcher, he won more than he lost, and it's always good to see another Montreal Expo make an appearance, as there are so few left. But cutting to the chase, Rueter is ballot filler, and we won't see him again.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: one vote. Maybe.

29. Benito Santiago (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 20 seasons, 1986-2005 -- *San Diego Padres 1986-92, Florida Marlins 1993-94, Cincinnati Reds 1995 & 2000, Philadelphia Phillies 1996, Toronto Blue Jays 1997-98, Chicago Cubs 1999, San Francisco Giants 2001-03, Kansas City Royals 2004, Pittsburgh Pirates 2005.
Peak season: 1996 -- 127 hits, 21 doubles, 30 HR, 85 RBI, 71 runs scored, .264 / .332 / .503, 117 OPS+, 2.8 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1987, 1988, 1990, 1991, 2002. This is being generous.
Career WAR: 23.8.
Primary position: catcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections (three starts), 1987 NL Rookie Of The Year Award, three NL Gold Gloves for catcher, four NL Silver Sluggers, 2002 NLCS MVP. Led league in assists by a catcher three times, caught steals once, caught stealing percentage once. Member of the 2002 NL champion Giants.

Mitchell Report: Named by Greg Anderson as a player whom he supplied with "cream" and "clear", since known to be, and defined as, anabolic androgenic steroids. Santiago acknowledged in grand jury testimony that he had used performance enhancing drugs, though his lawyer claimed Santiago did not know what they were. That's pretty much what Barry Bonds has claimed, but since Bonds is far and away the biggest fish in the BALCO scandal, no one much cares that Santiago was right there too. Hey, it wasn't Benito hitting all those home runs. (It really annoys me that people, particularly those most interested in blood, don't really want to punish all PED users. They just want to punish the ones who appeared to get the most benefit. It's like if two students cheated identically on a test, and one got an A, and the other a D, no one gives a toss about the kid who got the D. It becomes not about the offense, but about the magnitude. While I recognize the value in "making an example of someone" and doing so effectively, I don't fully agree with that approach.) Also has his own section in the Mitchell Report, starting on p. 134, but it mostly discusses syringes found in his locker, though there is a mention of human growth hormone as well.

How to extend your major league career:
1. Be a catcher, because other than left-handed relievers, there is no position that gets more additional chances (and, more to the point, contract offers). There's always a space for a backup catcher. You won't make the big money, but you'll have a job.
2. Win a ROY award. It indicates that, at least once upon a time, you had some real promise. This alone will get you five last-chance seasons in the majors, if you have anything left in your tank.
3. Use PEDs, apparently.

Santiago hit the trifecta. It kept him in the big leagues for 20 years, and that's impressive, because he couldn't hit anything else. He'd smack some doubles and some homers, but he never walked, was rarely above league-average over a season, and even when he was he wasn't much above average. (His 1996 season saw career highs with 30 homers, 49 walks, and a 117 OPS+. Career second-bests: 18 HR, 37 walks, and (in a full season) 111 OPS+.) By Nichols' Law of Catcher Defense, any catcher who cannot hit automatically gains a sterling defensive reputation, deserved or not. Santiago had it; a team needs someone behind the plate, and will endure a weak bat in exchange for the man willing to strap on the tools of ignorance and be at least competent at calling a game and blocking pitches in the dirt. It got him two decades in the majors, and that's rare. The Hall ballot is his last hurrah.

Chipmaker's vote: No. Nothing to do with PEDs, where he surely looks red-handed, because they did nothing for his playing stats, though just on endurance it might have given him a few extra seasons. Playing catcher is tough; most wear out long before age 40.

Prediction: 4% and relegated. No voter's ballot review will bother mentioning the Mitchell Report material, because no one cares enough.

30. Lee Smith (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 9 (six remaining).
Peak return: 47.3% (2010).
2010 return: 47.3%

Career: 18 seasons, 1980-97 -- *Chicago Cubs 1980-87, Boston Red Sox 1988-90, St. Louis Cardinals 1990-93, New York Yankees 1993, Baltimore Orioles 1994, California Angels 1995-96, Cincinnati Reds 1996, Montréal Expos 1997.
Peak season: 1991 -- 6-3, 47 saves, 2.34, 67 K, 157 ERA+, 1.137 WHIP, 2.6 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1982, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1990, 1994.
Career WAR: 30.3 (as a pitcher).
Primary position: relief pitcher (right handed), primarily a closer.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections, three Rolaids Relief Awards (two NL, one AL). Led league in saves four times. Held the career record for saves from 1993 to 2006; currently third all-time.

I changed my position on Smith last year, and decided to support him, as he is easily comparable to the relievers already in the Hall and, yeah, he was a damn good closer in his own right. He did his job very well and did it for a very long time. So I'm still in his camp, and don't anticipate abandoning his candidacy.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: cracks 50%, but it's gonna be a slog to get Smith inducted.

31. B.J. Surhoff (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 19 seasons, 1987-2005 -- *Milwaukee Brewers 1987-95, Baltimore Orioles 1996-2000 & 2003-05, Atlanta Braves 2000-02.
Peak season: 1999 -- 207 hits, 38 doubles, 28 HR, 107 RBI, 104 runs scored, .308 / .347 / .492, 115 OPS+, 4.4 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1996, 1997.
Career WAR: 34.4.
Primary position: catcher in his younger seasons, left fielder later. Played third base for a couple of seasons.
Honoraria and claims to fame: one All-Star selection. Led league in games played once, assists by a catcher once, assists by a left fielder twice.

Surhoff didn't hit much when he was a catcher, and though he did better when he moved to the outfield, he didn't hit well enough to be considered elite at that position. Not the sort of player who would be a major contributor to a champion team. Not a bad player, no one lasts 19 seasons by mistake or serendipity, he was useful to have. But there's nothing in his career that proclaims greatness.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: 2% and relegated. If Murphy cannot get bonus points for being a nice guy, Surhoff's got no chance.

32. Alan Trammell (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 10 (five remaining).
Peak return: 22.5% (2010).
2010 return: 22.5%

Career: 20 seasons, 1977-96 -- *Detroit Tigers all the while.
Peak season: 1987 -- 205 hits, 34 doubles, 28 HR, 105 RBI, 109 runs scored, 21 stolen bases (against 2 caught steals), .343 / .402 / .551, 155 OPS+, 8.4 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1993.
Career WAR: 66.9.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Six All-Star selections, 1984 World Series MVP, four AL Gold Gloves, three AL Silver Sluggers. Member of the 1984 World Series champion Tigers.

Baseball bonus points: Trammell was manager of the Tigers for three seasons, 2003-05. The 2003 team was, of course, an utter disaster. That cannot possibly be all Trammell's responsibility, but this part of his career does nothing to help his Hall candidacy.

Trammell continues to annoy me. His candidacy gets a bit tarnished by his contemporaries, Ripken and Smith, who were both brilliant at one side of the game (Cal, offense) or the other (Ozzie, D). Trammell fits in the middle -- and now Larkin is on the ballot, also a middle-grounder, but clearly a better player. Trammell just has a hard time shining through.

But I haven't supported him before and, to take the easy way out, I won't support him again... though I wavered more than usual this year. Maybe 2012. It's not looking good anyway -- the writers are showing him little love, and his runway is getting really short.

Chipmaker's vote: No. But I might cave next time.

Prediction: uptick to 25%, but little reason for genuine hope.

33. Larry Walker (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 17 seasons, 1989-2005 -- Montreal Expos 1989-94, *Colorado Rockies 1995-2004, St. Louis Cardinals 2004-05.
Peak season: 1997 -- 208 hits, 46 doubles, 49 HR, 130 RBI, 143 runs scored, 409 total bases, .366 / .452 /.720, 178 OPS+, 9.0 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 1993, 1994, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2002.
Career WAR: 67.3.
Primary position: right fielder.
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections (four starts), 1997 NL MVP Award, seven NL Gold Gloves, three NL Silver Sluggers. Led league in batting three times, on-base percentage twice, slugging twice, doubles once, HR once, assists by a right fielder three times. Member of the 2004 NL champion Cardinals, and hit the only two homers St. Louis had against Boston in the World Series.

Ah, here it is at last -- the first real test of Coors Field versus the Hall Of Fame voters. Larry Walker, superstar slugging right fielder in the offensive paradise of Denver. Was he really all that? Let's take a look at his career, minus his games in the Mile High City (he played a few games as a visitor before joining the Rockies).

Walker in Denver: 604 games, 2163 at-bats, 823 hits, 181 doubles, 32 triples, 155 HR, .380 batting, .461 on-base, .709 slugging.

Walker elsewhere: 1384 games, 4744 at-bats, 1337 hits, 290 doubles, 30 triples, 228 HR, .282 batting, .372 on-base, .500 slugging.

Yes, the thin air helps everyone, Walker included. But check out that second line -- .372 OBP, .500 SLG, .872 OPS is pretty darn good. Here's some HOFers who played after WWII who had an OPS in the .850-.900 range, in increasing order: Billy Williams (.853), Jim Rice, Al Kaline, George Brett, Monte Irvin, Wade Boggs, Roy Campanella, Larry Doby, Jackie Robinson, Harmon Killebrew, Eddie Mathews, Willie McCovey (.889), Willie Stargell (.889). Walker outside of Denver looks, in this one perspective, to have been Hall-class.

Baseball Reference provides adjusted OPS, which includes adjusting for a player's home park. Here's Walker's OPS+ numbers for his Rockies seasons: 130, 116, 178 (his MVP year), 158, 163, 110, 160, 150, 121, 166 (partial season, traded to St. Louis). Geez, could this guy hit. And he was good in the field too.

And in Denver? OPS of 1.169. Sure, the air helped, but it helped Walker like few others -- or, more to the point, he took better advantage of it than just about anyone else.

His career OPS, .965, sits near post-war HOFers like Willie Mays (.941), Ralph Kiner (.946), Mickey Mantle (.977), and Stan Musial (.978). Walker's numbers might not be putting him in this elite class qualitatively, but he certainly was a great player. And I have a hard time denying great players.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! This man was not merely a product of the rarefied air.

Prediction: Gets 25% to start. It'll climb. He'll probably make it. But it's probably going to take a Blyleven-type campaign to do it.

From these final nine candidates: Raines, Smith, Walker. And that makes for 13 candidates, too many. A short wrap-up post to follow, where I cut down my virtual ballot to ten names.

The Hall's 2011 BBWAA ballot -- Candidates Review (part 3 of 4)

2010-12-30T09:42:00.000-08:00

Continuing with the 2011 Hall ballot candidates...

17. Tino Martinez (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 16 seasons, 19902-2005 -- Seattle Mariners 1990-95, *New York Yankees 1996-2001 & 2005, St. Louis Cardinals 2002-03, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 2004.
Peak season: 1997 -- 176 hits, 31 doubles, 44 HR, 141 RBI, 96 runs scored, .296 / .371 / .577, 143 OPS+, 5.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1998.
Career WAR: 25.7.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections (one start), one AL Silver Slugger. Member of the Yankees during their recent 1996-2001 dynasty, when they won five AL pennants and four World Series championships.

Martinez was a good first baseman -- hit well, did okay on defense. But he wasn't a great one. He helped the Yankees win -- and did contribute more than the next guy on this list, whom he had to replace, and although he played well he could never supplant the image and aura Mattingly had -- but they would have won with another first baseman. Good, pleasantly consistent, but not great.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: hangs around with Mattingly and Murphy in the 10-20% zone for a while. Yankees who played on championship teams tend to get undying support.

18. Don Mattingly (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 11th (four remaining).
Peak return: 28.2% (2001).
2010 return: 16.1%

Career: 14 seasons, 1982-95 -- all with the *New York Yankees.
Peak season: 1986 -- 238 hits, 53 doubles, 31 HR, 113 RBI, 117 runs scored, .352 / .394 / .573, 161 OPS+, 6.9 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1984, 1985, 1987, 1988, 1989.
Career WAR: 39.8.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections (one start), 1985 AL MVP, nine AL Gold Gloves at 1B, three AL Silver Sluggers at 1B, 1984 AL batting champion. Led league in slugging once, hits twice, doubles three times, RBI once. Set the major league single season record for grand slams with six in 1987. Tied the ML record for consecutive games with a home run, with eight. Jersey #23 retired by the Yankees.

Four brilliant years, two more good years, and then he was around league average for the rest of his career. It neatly splits in half, much like Koufax's does, but whereas Sandy was pedestrian in the first half and then soared to the heights -- and left while riding high, leaving fans to wonder what more he could have done -- Donnie went from high to low, and we knew we'd seen what there was to see. It's still not enough.

Take hope, Mattingly fans. He's now the Dodgers manager, and maybe -- no way to predict reliably, but maybe -- that position will eventually lead him to Cooperstown. While he'd look good on a plaque, Yankees fans would blow a collective gasket seeing him with an "LA" adorning his cap instead of the familiar "NY".

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: just another return in high teens. Nothing to see here.

19. Fred McGriff (career stats | reviewed on 2010 ballot)

Year on ballot: 2nd (13 remaining).
Peak return: 21.5% (2010).
2010 return: 21.5%

Career: 19 seasons, 1986-2004 -- Toronto Blue Jays 1986-90, San Diego Padres 1991-93, *Atlanta Braves 1993-97, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 1998-2001 & 2004, Chicago Cubs 2001-02, Los Angeles Dodgers 2003.
Peak season: 1992 -- 152 hits, 30 doubles, 35 HR, 104 RBI, 79 runs scored, 96 walks, .286 / .394 / .556, 166 OPS+, 5.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1999, 2001.
Career WAR: 50.5.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Five All-Star selections (three starts), three Silver Sluggers (one AL, two NL) for 1B, led both leagues in HR once each. 1994 All-Star MVP. Member of the 1995 World Series champion Braves.

Damn good hitter, and for a long time. McGriff was also preternaturally durable -- from 1988 through 1998, he never played fewer than 151 games (except, of course, the two strike seasons, and there he was in 113 of 114 in '94 and the full 144 in '95) -- and when his streak ended in '99, he played in 144 games, and then followed this with 158, 146, and 146. That's the sort of reliability that managers love being able to count on. He wasn't flashy or loud, but he was often among the league leaders in power and was a big part of some of the Atlanta division-winning dynasty teams. I liked him then and I like him now.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: man, was his 2010 return disappointing. Let's see him jump to 28%.

20. Mark McGwire (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 5th (ten remaining).
Peak return: 23.7% (2010).
2010 return: 23.7%

Career: 16 seasons, 1986-2001 -- *Oakland Athletics 1986-97, St. Louis Cardinals 1997-2001.
Peak season: 1998 -- 152 hits, 21 doubles, 70 HR, 147 RBI, 130 runs, 162 walks (then an NL record), .299 / .470 / .752, 216 OPS+, 7.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, and 2000 even though he played only 89 games.
Career WAR: 63.1.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 12 All-Star selections (six starts), 1987 AL ROY, one AL Gold Glove at 1B, three Silver Sluggers (one AL, two NL) at 1B. Led league in on-base percentage twice, slugging four times, home runs four times, RBI once, walks twice. Rookie record 49 HR. Record 70 HR in 1998, since surpassed once. Member of the 1989 World Series champion Athletics. Member of the 500 Home Runs Club (583 career).

Mitchell Report: mentioned as having used androstenedione (legal and MLB permitted at the time) in 1998, and that Canseco named Mac as a teammate whom he introduced to steroids. But this matters little now, since McGwire has given his public testimony that yes, he used steroids.

The public got their pound of flesh back in January, when McGwire broke the story that he indeed had used steroids during his playing career. Having tasted the blood they craved, the media and public immediately demanded another 99 pounds more, because he didn't get misty-eyed enough or give the steroids full credit for his power or, or, or something. The point to take away from that, unfortunately, is that no amount of confession and contrition will ever be enough, at least for some people.

I'm not one of those people. I didn't care what Mac did then and don't now, because there was no prohibition and certainly no policing. He got himself healthy, and he hit, hit with power, got on base. Those are all key skills to playing baseball, and he did them at an exceedingly high level -- and strike zone discipline doesn't come from a bottle. Even if we estimate a "steroids penalty" he still would have been a league-leading monster at the plate. Greatness shines through, and McGwire had it. I've supported him before and still do, but have no firm idea how the writers will respond -- will some few forgive and vote for him? Or take further petty vengeance and Mac loses votes? He's not going to get in this year, possibly not ever, but the last card in McGwire's candidacy has been laid on the table, so here's where it gets interesting.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: [shrug]. He's held steady in the low 20% range. Goes up? Goes down? I'll play it safe and say he holds steady at 23%.

21. Raul Mondesi (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 13 seasons, 1993-2005 -- *Los Angeles Dodgers 1993-99, Toronto Blue Jays 2000-02, New York Yankees 2002-03, Arizona Diamondbacks 2003, Pittsburgh Pirates 2004, Anaheim Angels 2004, Atlanta Braves 2005.
Peak season: 1997 -- 191 hits, 42 doubles, 30 HR, 87 RBI, 95 runs scored, .310 / .360 / .541, 140 OPS+, 508 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1996.
Career WAR: 27.2.
Primary position: right fielder.
Honoraria and claims to fame: one All-Star selection, 1994 NL Rookie Of The Year Award, two NL Gold Gloves for outfield. Led league in putouts by a right fielder twice, assists by a right fielder three times.

Mondesi was a good player, but not a great one. Good power, not great -- partly that was a product of the times, the powerball 1990s, when 30 dingers wasn't close to being in the league's top ten. He never drove in 100 runs (did have 99 RBI once), but the way everyone else was hitting, maybe the runners were being mopped up by the rest of the lineup. His arm was good enough to play right, and that's valuable, but Mondesi's hitting flatlined after his one big season at age 26 -- didn't get better, didn't get meaningfully worse, just stayed there -- and he quickly crumbled after age 32, getting released (amazingly quietly; I remember having to search widely on the web to find a months-old note about the Braves making a transaction; he essentially vanished) at 34. Not a Hall-class player.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: one and gone. One vote, maybe.

22. Jack Morris (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 12th (three remaining).
Peak return: 52.3% (2010).
2010 return: 52.3%

Career: 18 seasons, 1977-94 -- *Detroit Tigers 1977-90, Minnesota Twins 1991, Toronto Blue Jays 1992-93, Cleveland Indians 1994.
Peak season: 1986 -- 21-8, 3.27, 35 starts, 15 CG, 6 ShO, 267.0 innings, 223 K, 127 ERA+, 4.7 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1979, 1981, 1985, 1987, 1991, 1992.
Career WAR: 39.3 (as a pitcher).
Primary position: starting pitcher (right handed).
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections (three starts), 1991 World Series MVP. Led league in wins twice, strikeouts once, shutouts once, innings pitched once, complete games once. Pitched a no-hitter in 1984. Member of three World Series champion teams, the 1984 Tigers, the 1991 Twins, and the 1992 Blue Jays. A good postseason pitcher, going 7-4, 3.80 in 13 games, 92.1 IP, with one legendary night.

The greatness is there if the viewer wants to see it. I don't see it. Good seasons, some very good seasons, but very little genuine greatness.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: jumps to 55%. Still got a long way to go and a short time to get there.

23. Dale Murphy (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 13th (two remaining).
Peak return: 23.2% (2000).
2010 return: 11.7%

Career: 18 seasons, 1976-93 -- *Atlanta Braves 1976-90, Philadelphia Phillies 1990-92, Colorado Rockies 1993.
Peak season: 1983 -- 178 hits, 24 doubles, 36 HR, 121 RBI, 131 runs scored, 30 stolen bases, 90 walks, .302 / .393 / .540, 149 OPS+, 7.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987.
Career WAR: 44.2.
Primary position: center field, right field when he got older.
Honoraria and claims to fame: seven All-Star selections (five starts), 1982 and 1983 NL MVP Awards, five NL Gold Gloves for outfield, four NL Silver Sluggers for outfield. Led league in slugging twice, runs scored once, home runs twice, RBI twice, walks once. Jersey #3 retired by the Braves.

Well, the writers elected Dawson. Why not Murphy?

I'm not actually making that argument, I don't like the "player A got in, so why not player B?" approach, but here it needed to be said, just to think about. Murf had an excellent, extended peak -- eight seasons, six of them worthy of building a Hall case. I've supported him all this time and I'll continue doing so, but I recognize it's not going to happen here. I don't know why Murphy gets so little support among the voters, but with 4/5 of his candidacy window gone, it's a lost cause, just ticking along until expiry.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! Like always.

Prediction: 12%, because that's about where he always lands.

24. John Olerud (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 17 seasons, 1989-2005 -- *Toronto Blue Jays 1989-96, New York Mets 1997-99, Seattle Mariners 2000-04, New York Yankees 2004, Boston Red Sox 2005.
Peak season: 1993 -- 200 hits, 54 doubles, 24 HR, 107 RBI, 109 runs scored, 114 walks, .363 / .473 / .599, 186 OPS+, 8.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1997, especially 1998, 1999, 2001, 2002.
Career WAR: 56.8.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections (both starts), three AL Gold Gloves for first base. Led league in batting average once (staying above .400 into August), on-base percentage once, doubles once, assists by a first baseman three times. Member of the 1992 and 1993 World Series champion Blue Jays.

Two curiosities about Olerud and his playing career. One, he was well-known for wearing his helmet while playing defense, due to a head injury risk from his college days, but he became so accustomed to it that he continued wearing the helmet after doctors cleared him to play without it. Two, he never played in the minor leagues until his final season, 2005, when the Red Sox had him play three games at AAA level as a brief tune-up to joining the big team.

Olerud was a very good and reliable player, getting into 150+ games in eight seasons. He got on base, he had some power, he played good defense. Eight of his teams saw postseason action. But no first baseman is ever going to earn the plaque with his defense, and while Olerud was a good hitter, he was not a great one outside of his two best seasons (1993 & '98). There should have been, somewhere in there, a step forward that stuck, elevated his game a level. Didn't happen. It's nice to think back on Olerud's career, he was fun to watch and the helmet gave him visible distinction, but he wasn't Hall level but briefly.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: hangs around with Mattingly in the low tens range, 11%.

Of these eight candidates: McGriff, McGwire, Murphy. That makes ten, and there's still a quarter of the ballot to go and I know I like some of the remaining names.

The Hall's 2011 BBWAA ballot -- Candidates Review (part 2 of 4)

2010-12-28T18:17:00.000-08:00

Continuing with the 2011 ballot candidates....

9. Juan Gonzalez (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 17 seasons, 1989-2005 -- *Texas Rangers 1989-99 & 2002-03, Detroit Tigers 2000, Cleveland Indians 2001 & 2005, Kansas City Royals 2004.
Peak season: 1993 -- 166 hits, 33 doubles, 46 HR, 118 RBI, 105 runs scored, .310 / .368 / .632, 169 OPS+, 6.7 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2001.
Career WAR: 33.5.
Primary position: right fielder. Lots of fans remember him as a DH, and he certainly was no asset with the glove, but he didn't DH that much -- only 370 games out of nearly 1700 in his career.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (two starts), two AL MVP Awards (1996 and 1998), six AL Silver Sluggers. Led league in home runs twice, doubles once, RBI once. Member of the Rangers' first three postseason teams ever (1996, '98, '99), and while each ended in a Division Series defeat to the Yankees, Gonzalez saved team face by being pretty much the only Texas batter who did anything at all in the ten total games.

Mitchell Report: A bag belonging to one of Gonzalez's trainers was seized at Canadian customs (his team was heading to Toronto) with steroids inside.

Juan Gone was fun to watch, because he could hit. He couldn't -- hell, he wouldn't -- take a walk and his defense was adequate at best, but he sure could hit. And slug. From 1993 through 2001, his posted a season batting average below .289 only once -- that was 1994, which was also the only time in that span he slugged below .500. When he was in the lineup, he made big things happen.

Unfortunately he wasn't always in the lineup, with only two seasons of 150+ games played. He always had nagging injuries, little things (or sometimes big things) like pulled muscles, probably related to his obsessive weight training regimen. The Rangers traded him to Detroit after the '99 season, and while I was sorry to see him go, these things happen. He had an okay season with the Tigers, turned down a massive contract offer, and went to Cleveland where he showed a lot of his younger self -- power, average, refusal to stand there waiting for ball four. It seemed like he still had something left -- but then he came back to the Rangers and fell to pieces, two seasons totaling 152 games. Good enough when he played, but he didn't play enough, much too injured. A train wreck in KC and a bad joke ending -- one at-bat for the 2005 Indians -- and he was done. He poked about for another year in independent ball, but it was over -- and Gonzalez is only a month older than Griffey. It was a long, slow, but inexorable slide down the mountain and into the ocean, just dismal. If he'd stayed healthy, he could have hit 600 home runs. We got to see only 434 of those.

Sigh. I so enjoyed watching Gonzalez hit. If he had had anything more to his career -- plate patience, a decent glove and arm, a longer and more graceful (wouldn't have taken much) tail to his career, I'd feel that much better about his candidacy. Regards the possible steroid usage -- yeah, probably so, but if he was using after 2001 they were doing more harm than good, because he couldn't stay healthy at all. What is in the Mitchell Report doesn't disqualify Gonzalez in my view; his career, with the significant shortcomings and the messy ending, does that. Home runs and power are great assets, but not enough by themselves, not for the honor of the Hall.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: stays on the ballot, but not by much -- ends up with Palmeiro as his percentage neighbor, around 12%.

10. Marquis Grissom (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 17 seasons, 1989-2005 -- *Montreal Expos 1989-94, Atlanta Braves 1995-96, Cleveland Indians 1997, Milwaukee Brewers 1998-2000, Los Angeles Dodgers 2001-02, San Francisco Giants 2003-05.
Peak season: 1992 -- 180 hits, 39 doubles, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 78 stolen bases, 99 runs scored, .276 / .322 / .418, 110 OPS+, 5.6 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1993, 1994, 1996, 2002.
Career WAR: 25.6.
Primary position: center fielder.
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections (one start), 1997 ALCS MVP, four NL Gold Gloves. Led league in stolen bases twice, center field putouts once, center field assists twice. Had zero errors in 2001, 123 games, 233 chances. Member of the 1995 World Series champion and 1996 NL champion Braves and the 1997 AL champion Indians, and not many guys get to play in the World Series three years in a row with two different teams, so that must have been nice.

Grissom was a very good player -- not with his bat, which was league average most of the time, but with his glove he was excellent. He was durable, too -- from 1991 through 2000, he never played fewer than 139 games (except the short 1994 season, when he played in 110 of Montreal's 114). His range factor was typically above, sometimes well above, the league average. Good arm. And he could hit some -- Grissom was mostly a singles hitter, but he could rattle some doubles and poke a few homers every year, though he slugged over .450 only four times.

Grissom was an amazing base stealer in his youth, as well, twice leading the NL with 76 and 78 thefts, nabbing 53 another time. His speed faded after 1995, but for a while he was brilliant.

And, though no postseason glory attaches, he was a member of the amazing 1994 Expos, a team that was likely destined for a World Series, possibly a championship -- and speculating on what might have happened, had that been the case, is a long story for another time. (Worth noting, two other teammates, Walker and Rueter, are on this ballot.) Grissom was a key part of that squad, and that should be remembered and acknowledged.

Very good player, but that's the most we can say of him.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: I hope he stays on the ballot, but I fear he won't -- 3% and relegated.

11. Lenny Harris (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 18 seasons, 1988-2005 -- Cincinnati Reds 1988-89 & '94-98, *Los Angeles Dodgers 1989-93, New York Mets 1998 & 2000-01, Colorado Rockies 1999, Arizona Diamondbacks 1999, Milwaukee Brewers 2002, Chicago Cubs 2003, Florida Marlins 2003-05.
Peak season: 1990 -- 131 hits, 16 doubles, 4 triples, 2 HR, 29 RBI, 61 runs scored, .304/.348/.374, 15 stolen bases, 101 OPS+, 2.8 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1991, 2000 -- and we're really stretching here.
Career WAR: -0.9 (1.8 batting, -2.7 defense).
Primary position: When he took the field, it was at third base, or maybe second base, right field, or left field. But Harris' primary role was as a pinch-hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Holds the major league record for most pinch-hits in a career, with 212. Also holds associated PH records -- most PH AB in a career, most games PH in during a career, most games PH in a season. You get the idea.

Harris was a pinch-hitter. Of his 1903 career major league games, he started 770, just over 40%. All the others saw him enter as a substitute, and usually as a pinch-hitter. That was his job. He was pretty good at it, certainly not great, but he wasn't very good at much of anything else -- he didn't keep a starting job -- so this is what there is to consider.

Pinch-hitting is not like designated hitting. The DH is a starting position, and the best ones can keep on doing it, and doing it well, for a long time. Pinch hitting regularly is for those who can't cut it doing anything else. Or maybe they're buds with the manager, or something. The pinch hitter takes over for a guy who needs a rest, or has a short-term injury, or needs to get up there when the pitcher's slot is due at the plate.

I'm okay with DHs getting in the Hall, and relief pitchers. Those are specialty roles, but established ones. Pinch hitting, however, is for guys who can cause a bit of trouble for the opponents but cannot sustain it. I can't really see it happening, but perhaps some day a great pinch hitter will earn the plaque. Harris, however, will not be that man.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: two votes, relegated.

12. Bobby Higginson (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 11 seasons, 1995-2005 -- all with the *Detroit Tigers.
Peak season: 2000 -- 179 hits, 44 doubles, 30 HR, 102 RBI, 104 runs scored, .300 / .377 / .538, 134 OPS+, 4.6 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1996, 1997, 2001.
Career WAR: 21.4.
Primary position: left fielder and right fielder.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Played his entire career with only one team, which is held in some esteem by fans and writers. Led the league in putouts by a left fielder twice, and in assists by a left fielder four times and by a right fielder twice, so that's uncommon. Not a lot to mine here.

Higginson was a good player -- good hitter, pretty good fielder. Was the primary RF for the 2003 Tigers, one of the worst train-wreck teams of all time, so he must have a pretty high tolerance for pain and suffering. Unfortunately "good" is all we can say about him, there's nothing great here. Alas, he tailed off quickly after age 30, done after a cameo appearance (10 games) in 2005, and so was not around when the Kitties finally grabbed an October golden ticket again in 2006. A nice player to remember, but the Hall ballot is his last stop.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: one vote, because every candidate should get at least one vote. (Of course, many do not.)

13. Charles Johnson (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 12 seasons, 1994-2005 -- *Florida Marlins 1994-98 & 2001-02, Los Angeles Dodgers 1998, Baltimore Orioles 1999-2000, Chicago White Sox 2000, Colorado Rockies 2003-04, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 2005.
Peak season: 1997 -- 104 hits, 26 doubles, 19 HR, 63 RBI, .250/.347/.454, 43 runs, 113 OPS+, 4.4 WAR (2.5 batting, 1.9 defense).
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1999, 2000.
Career WAR: 22.0 (about 1/3 of that, 7.1, for defense).
Primary position: catcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections, four NL Gold Gloves for catcher (consecutive). Led league in caught steals once, fielding percentage for a catcher twice. Member of the 1997 World Series champion Marlins.

Not a very long career, but a pretty good one as catchers go. It's a tough position that exacts a harsh physical toll -- several nagging injuries and the general punishment that catchers take limited his playing time, only twice exceeding 130 games in a season (and peaking at 135). Johnson could hit a bit and take a walk, all to the good, but his ticket to the big leagues was his glove and defensive prowess. And here, he shone, while the vigor of youth allowed him. He wore down before age 30 and quickly wore out after, sputtering to an end at 33. But he never gave up being a catcher, strapping on the tools of ignorance to the last. Baseball is a tough game. Johnson gave it all he had and all he could. A player worth recalling -- but not a Hall of Famer.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: won't stay on the ballot, 2% and gone. Ah well.

14. Barry Larkin (career stats | reviewed on 2010 ballot)

Year on ballot: 2nd (13 remaining).
Peak return: 51.6% (2010).
2010 return: 51.6%.

Career: 19 seasons, 1986-2004 -- *Cincinnati Reds the whole time.
Peak season: 1996 -- 33 HR, 89 RBI, .298/.410/.567, 117 runs, 32 doubles, 36 stolen bases, 154 OPS+, 7.4 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999.
Career WAR: 68.9.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Twelve All-Star selections (five starts), 1995 NL MVP, three NL Gold Gloves for shortstop, nine NL Silver Sluggers for shortstop. Ranks in the Top Five in many Reds franchise hitting records, including second in hits and doubles (behind Pete Rose). Member of the 1990 World Series champion Reds.

Larkin fell smack between the peaks of two different shortstop groups -- Ripken, Smith, and Trammell before him, and the troika of Garciaparra, Jeter, and Rodriguez after. So he never had a chance to grab the spotlight for but the briefest of spans; he's easy to overlook. But he should not be overlooked, because Larkin was a great shortstop. The media knows this -- they did give him a well-earned MVP and over 50% of the Hall vote last year. He needs to get to 75% or better. I think it will happen, but the sooner, the better, because he doesn't deserve to have to wait. C'mon, he's Hall worthy, so no need to futz around here.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! ...and will remain Yes until he gets in.

Prediction: takes a jump to 60%, but induction will take a few more years, drat the luck.

15. Al Leiter (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 19 seasons, 1987-2005 -- New York Yankees 1987-89 & 2005, Toronto Blue Jays 1989-95, Florida Marlins 1996-97 & 2005, *New York Mets 1998-2004.
Peak season: 1998 -- 17-6, 2.47, 28 starts, 4 CG, 193.0 innings, 174 K, 170 ERA+, 1.150 WHIP, 6.5 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1996, 2000.
Career WAR: 38.8 as a pitcher (-2.7 as a batter).
Primary position: starting pitcher (left handed).
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections. Led league in H/9IP once. Member of two World Series champions, the 1993 Blue Jays and 1997 Marlins, as well as the 2000 NL champion Mets.

Leiter could eat up innings, but he was never remotely an ace pitcher. Only won 15 games four times, peaking at 17 (and yes, while I give pitcher wins very little consideration in evaluating the player's quality, they remain stubbornly popular, and not having sparkly win numbers can doom a candidate, so I mention them in recognition of this; low win totals cannot disguise the pitcher's lackings in the rest of his game). Walked too many guys, didn't strike out enough. Leiter was usually an above-average pitcher and often a useful part of whichever staff he was on; but if he hadn't been on several World Series teams and spent time in New York in eleven different seasons, he probably wouldn't be on the ballot, where he's only acting as filler. "Just being named on the ballot is an honor" has been heard before, and will be again, and here it fits.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: one and out, four votes.

16. Edgar Martinez (career stats | reviewed on 2010 ballot)

Year on ballot: 2nd (13 remaining).
Peak return: 36.2% (2010).
2010 return: 36.2%.

Career: 18 seasons, 1987-2004 -- all with the *Seattle Mariners.
Peak season: 1995 -- 29 HR, 113 RBI, .356/.479/.628, 182 hits, 52 doubles, 121 runs, 185 OPS+, 7.7 WAR, while playing the entire 145 game schedule.
Other outstanding seasons: 1990, 1991, 1992, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003.
Career WAR: 67.2.
Primary position: designated hitter; was a third baseman in his early seasons.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (four starts), five AL Silver Sluggers (one for 3B, four for DH), two AL batting championships, led the league in OBP three times, runs scored once, doubles twice, RBI once. MLB's award for the season's outstanding designated hitter is named in Martinez's honor, after he won it five times.

Goodness gracious, Edgar Martinez could hit. He hit so well that, in short order, that's all that the Mariners asked him to do. And he did it, brilliantly, and for a very long time.

There are those who still decry the designated hitter, now approaching 40 years established and not going away. I don't see the point (and am continually curious how they evaluate pitchers if they cling to their "players should play offense AND defense" credo, but they always duck that line of inquiry). The DH role is here, and players who DH should be evaluated on their job description. Martinez remains one of the very best, probably the very best, to perform as a designated hitter, and he did so with amazing and worthy endurance. Seriously, find a better DH, ever. Maybe Frank Thomas, but if it takes Frank Thomas to trump Martinez as a DH, Martinez is in truly elite company.

But let's indulge the "whole player"ists and take a look at Martinez' defense. Y'know what? He wasn't that bad. Going by defensive wins above replacement (dWAR), he had a couple of pretty good seasons, and no really bad ones, only once dipping below -0.4 (to -0.6). He usually had to take up his glove a few games every season, interleague play saw to that, and he didn't do any meaningful harm. Over his career, he was a defensive positive, +0.3 dWAR. Sure, had he played defense more he might have been a liability, but as a DH, the Mariners didn't let that happen -- the team leveraged him to avoid that. Smart move. Take that, naysayers. (Besides, when did a monster hitter ever have to worry about his defensive contributions when it comes to the Hall ballot? Please. Martinez was a monster hitter, and could not possibly have significantly damaged his offensive contributions through poor defense, even if he was stationed at shortstop.)

Edgar Martinez deserves a plaque in Cooperstown because he was a great hitter, and because someone, eventually, has to be the first primary DH in the Hall, and we may as well pioneer that with the very best.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! ...for however long it takes.

Prediction: jumps to 40%, but it could be another Blyleven campaign ahead. Willing to undertake the task, though annoyed that it may come to that.

Of these eight candidates: Larkin and Edgar Martinez. That makes seven so far. Definitely gonna have to throw some names off the lifeboat when I'm done. Oh well....

More candidates tomorrow.

The Hall's 2011 BBWAA ballot -- Candidates Review (part 1 of 4)

2010-12-28T08:52:00.000-08:00

There are 33 candidates on the Hall ballot this year -- 14 returning, and 19 rookies.

Two items about how I review candidates. First, I tend to put more weight on great seasons than on shiny career totals, because the annual goal of the baseball season is to earn a postseason berth, and a great season does more toward helping achieve that than do a number of good seasons. This doesn't always make a great difference in my candidate assessment, but sometimes it does. Second, regards PEDs -- usage of such (and I don't constrain my considerations to steroids and/or HGH, though these remain the popular memes in baseball) tends not to bother me. In particular, usage (established or, in far more cases, merely suspected) prior to the 2004 steroid ban makes very little difference here. Baseball is a competitive enterprise that attracts competitive people, all of whom are continuously looking for an edge over the other guys. If it wasn't against baseball policy, it was not only available, but expected and tacitly encouraged on a cultural level. If it was against the law, that would be a matter for the relevant district attorney. Playing baseball at the major league level is hard, and talent never came out of a bottle. Magic waters might make a player better, but anyone in the big leagues was pretty damn good to begin with. And, lastly, if steroid usage was as widespread as some sources claim -- well over half of the major league population -- than advantages were largely negated, and relative greatness on the field still shone through. I'm okay with that.

Anyone caught using steroids after the 2004 ban, however, is an idiot, and I have no problem factoring in that as well. If any player is mentioned (other than incidentally) in the Mitchell Report, that is noted.

With that, let's go to the first eight candidates on this year's ballot, using the traditional alphabetical order. The asterisk * indicates the team which, if elected, I expect would be on the player's plaque cap.

1. Roberto Alomar (career stats | reviewed on 2010 ballot)

Year on ballot: 2nd (13 remaining).
Peak return: 73.7% (2010).
2010 return: 73.7% (eight votes short of election).

Career: 17 seasons, 1988-2004 -- San Diego Padres 1988-90, *Toronto Blue Jays 1991-95, Baltimore Orioles 1996-98, Cleveland Indians 1999-2001, New York Mets 2002-03, Chicago White Sox 2003 & '04, Arizona Diamondbacks 2004.
Peak season: 1999 -- 24 HR (career high), 120 RBI (career high), .323/ .422/ .533, 182 hits, 138 runs (led AL), 139 OPS+, 7.9 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 2001.
Career WAR: 63.5.
Primary position: second baseman.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 12 All-Star selections (nine starts), ten AL Gold Gloves for 2B, four AL Silver Sluggers for 2B, MVP Awards for the 1992 ALCS and the 1998 All-Star Game. Member of 1992 & 1993 World Series champion Blue Jays and five other postseason teams. Led AL in runs scored in 1999. Member of the Blue Jays Ring of Excellence.

Okay, writers, you delivered your slap on Alomar's wrist for spitting on the umpire long ago. We get it. Message received. Now, vote this man in like he deserves and like you know he deserves.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: 81%, elected.

2. Carlos Baerga (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 14 seasons, 1990-99, 2002-05 -- *Cleveland Indians 1990-96 & '99, New York Mets 1996-98, San Diego Padres 1999, Boston Red Sox 2002, Arizona Diamondbacks 2003-04, Washington Nationals 2005.
Peak season: 1992 -- 205 hits, 32 doubles, 20 HR, 105 RBI, .312 / .354 / .455, 92 runs, 127 OPS+, 5.5 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1993, 1994.
Career WAR: 16.0.
Primary position: second baseman.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (one start), two AL Silver Sluggers for second base. Led the AL in singles in 1992. Led the AL in putouts by a second baseman in 1992-93, and in assists by a second baseman in 1992, '93, and '95. Member of the 1995 AL champion Cleveland Indians, a genuine monster team.

Baerga had a brilliant but very short peak, two great seasons and two more that would have looked even better were it not for the 1994-95 strike. But he quickly fell to pieces after, which is curious because he was entering his late 20's, when most players have their peak. His 1998 season was the last time he played more than 105 games in a season; he quickly fell -- no, crashed -- to backup player status. Different teams kept giving him chances, but all he showed was that he had very little left. It happens. Good player, but well short of Hall measure.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: this will be Baerga's only ballot. Less than 5%, and relegated.

3. Jeff Bagwell (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 15 seasons, 1991-2005 -- all with the *Houston Astros.
Peak season: 1994 -- sure, it was a strike-shortened season, but Bags played in 110 of Houston's 115 games, and suffered one of the best-timed major injuries in history. Bagwell's season ended when he was hit by a pitch, breaking a bone, on August 10, and the strike ended the season on August 11. Without the strike, he probably doesn't win the NL MVP, but that is what happened, and this is what he did: 147 hits, 32 doubles, 39 HR, 116 RBI, 65 walks, .368 / .451 / .750, 104 runs scored, 213 OPS+, 8.9 WAR (in a short season). Geez.
Other outstanding seasons: 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001... he made a habit of being great.
Career WAR: 79.9.
Primary position: first baseman.
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections (two starts), 1994 NL MVP, 1991 NL Rookie Of The Year, three NL Silver Sluggers, one NL Gold Glove for 1B. Led NL in games played four times, runs scored three times, doubles once, RBI once, walks once, slugging once. Jersey #5 retired by the Astros.

Ah, Jeff Bagwell -- the reason Larry Andersen is still a known name. Traded late in the 1990 season, he never played for Boston (alas), but built a legend in the Astrodome. Bagwell could always hit, nearly winning a batting title in AA despite a hitter-hostile home park. The 'Dome was not much nicer, yet Bags had the talent to master it. He rolled to his ROY award, even parking a home run into the third deck in Three Rivers Stadium, where typically only Willie Stargell could reach -- and that was just the beginning. Together with Craig Biggio, they formed the heart of the Killer B's (there was typically a third "B" on the roster -- Derek Bell for a while, Lance Berkman later, and others), and propelled the Astros to four division titles and six total postseason appearances in a nine-year span, culminating in the 2005 NL pennant and World Series. All that would not have happened without this man.

Bagwell could hit like thunder, and did so from his amateur days, during his brief time in the minors, and throughout his big league career until shoulder arthritis drained his power. Bagwell hit, hit, hit, hit, hit, hit for power, drew walks, and kept on hitting. I like seasons with an OPS+ of 140 or better (as a rule of thumb; it's not absolute). Bagwell had eight such seasons, typically well above 140, plus four other seasons in the high 130s. And he was pretty good on defense as well. No player posts an immaculate career, anyone can be criticized a li'l bit -- but there's really nothing in Bagwell's career that casts any doubts he is Hall material.

Except for one thing, and no one in a position to know will say it clearly. Bagwell's peak came during the steroid-fueled 1990s, the powerball era, and even though we know little for certain, there are those, entrusted with Hall ballots or not, who hint and allege that maybe there was something about Bagwell. Lookit those forearms! (They were impressive.) Well, tough beans -- if there's hard evidence, produce it, or let it go. There's nothing credible about Bagwell being involved; nothing has come to light. Some voters claim they want to wait and see -- fine, I suppose. There is and likely always will be a contingent who withhold their vote from any player's first time on the ballot -- the reasons why are irrelevant -- and I recognize there will be some who think Bagwell is worthy but "not first-ballot worthy". I disagree, but whaddya gonna do? If he misses this year, and I suspect he will (but not by much), the votes will be there next time. The voters get a pass on criticism of their first ballots. But if he misses again -- there will need to be a reckoning. What reasons then? If there's evidence, produce it -- or swallow the suspicions and cast this man his deserved votes.

Jeff Bagwell is, clearly (and cleanly), a Hall Of Fame player.

Chipmaker's vote: YES!

Prediction: lands closely aside Barry Larkin, over 60% but short of election.

4. Harold Baines (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 5th (10 remaining).
Peak return: 6.1% (2010).
2010 return: 6.1%.

Career: 22 seasons, 1980-2001 -- *Chicago White Sox 1980-89, '96-97, & 2000-01, Texas Rangers 1989-90, Oakland Athletics 1990-92, Baltimore Orioles 1993-95 & '97-2000, Cleveland Indians 1999.
Peak season: 1984 -- 29 HR (career high), 94 RBI, .304/.361/.541, 142 OPS+, 109 RC, 3.6 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1989, 1991, 1996.
Career WAR: 37.0.
Primary position: right field for seven seasons, then designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Six All-Star selections (one start), one Silver Slugger, led the AL in slugging average in 1984. Good postseason hitter (.324/.378/.510 in 31 G, 102 AB). Jersey #3 retired by the White Sox.

There's a hardcore contingent of voters from the Chicago BBWAA chapter that keeps Baines on the ballot, but his candidacy is going nowhere. As a hitter, he was good, sometimes very good, but not great, and as a designated hitter, his hitting is essentially his only credential. And his hitting isn't enough. Move along, nothing to see here.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: climbs to 7%, because hey, why not?

5. Bert Blyleven (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 14th (one remaining).
Peak return: 74.2% (2010).
2010 return: 74.2% (five votes short of election).

Career: 22 seasons, 1970-90 & 1992 -- *Minnesota Twins 1970-76 & '85-88, Texas Rangers 1976-77, Pittsburgh Pirates 1978-80, Cleveland Indians 1981-85, California Angels 1989-90 & '92.
Peak season: 1973 -- 20-17, 2.52, 258 K, 158 ERA+, 9.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1974, 1977, 1984, 1989.
Career WAR: 90.1 (as a pitcher; drops to 87.6 when considering his batting).
Primary position: right-handed starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Two All-Star selections, led AL in strikeouts once and shutouts three times. Fifth highest career strikeout total, third highest when he retired. 287 career wins (which, alas, is just short of 300). Member of two World Series champion teams, the 1979 Pirates and the 1987 Twins. An excellent postseason pitcher -- 5-1, 2.47 in 8 games, 6 starts, 47.1 IP, 36 K, 8 BB.

My support of Blyleven has been unflagging, and his 2010 return, a whisker short of the finish line, was maddening and enthralling. The internet campaign has never relented, and this year, I think, is Bert's year at last. C'mon, let's get it over with, happy ending.

Chipmaker's vote: YES! (like always)

Prediction: elected. I don't give a damn what the percentage is, as long as it's above 75. Let's win this one and move on to beating the Tim Raines drum.

6. Bret Boone (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 14 seasons, 1992-2005 -- *Seattle Mariners 1992-93 & 2001-05, Cincinnati Reds 1994-98, Atlanta Braves 1999, Minnesota Twins 2005.
Peak season: 2001 -- 158 games, 206 hits, 37 doubles, 37 HR, 141 RBI, 118 runs scored, .331 / .372 / .578, 153 OPS+, 9.3 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1994, 2002, 2003.
Career WAR: 21.4.
Primary position: second baseman.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (one start), two AL Silver Sluggers, four Gold Gloves (one NL, three AL). Led league in RBI once, putouts by a second baseman once., fielding percentage by a second baseman three times.

Baseball bonus points: Boone was the first third-generation major league player, following grandfather Ray Boone (1948-60) and father Bob Boone (1972-90). His brother Aaron later joined Bret in this distinction.

Boone was pretty good for a while, with one amazingly great season with the 116-win 2001 Mariners. And he had a few more good seasons after that, but then fell apart starting in 2004 -- when the steroids ban went into effect, which I think was not a mere coincidence. Anyway, that's not particularly important here; what is, is that Boone had more disappointing seasons, league-average at best, than he had great, Hall-class seasons. There's anecdotal evidence that Boone was a product of playing better through chemistry (Mitchell has nothing about him), but even if so, it wasn't enough here. Good for a time, but not all-time great.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: one and out.

7. Kevin Brown (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 19 seasons, 1986 & 1988-2005 -- *Texas Rangers 1986 & '88-94, Baltimore Orioles 1995, Florida Marlins 1996-97, San Diego Padres 1998, Los Angeles Dodgers 1999-2003, New York Yankees 2004-05.
Peak season: 1996 -- 17-11, 1.89 ERA, 32 starts, 5 CG, 3 shutouts, 233.0 innings pitched, 159 K, 33 walks, 217 ERA+, 0.994 WHIP, 7.5 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2003.
Career WAR: 64.8 as a pitcher (-0.8 as a batter).
Primary position: starting pitcher (right handed).
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections (one start). Led his league in wins once, games started three times, innings pitched once, ERA twice, ERA+ once, WHIP twice. Member of the 1997 World Series champion Marlins and the 1998 NL champion Padres.

Mitchell Report: has his own section (pp. 214-217) implicating him having purchased and probably used human growth hormone and, once, a steroid.

What people probably remember best about Brown is his seven-year, $105 million contract he signed with the Dodgers, and how he never seemed able to measure up to it (in fact, some of his seasons under that deal were outstanding; others, derailed by injuries). That wasn't a smart contract from the start, but that wasn't Brown's fault.

What people don't remember so well is how good a pitcher Brown was most of the time. No, he didn't pile up Ws, because the modern game isn't conducive to that, but he did prevent baserunners and runs, during an era when that was increasingly difficult to do. Lack of Ws, particularly not having 20 or more in a season during his peak, is one reason he never won a Cy Young Award (he did finish second once and third once). That doesn't make him a lesser pitcher, just a less recognized one. Brown could pitch crazy good, but doing it during the same time that Maddux and Martinez and Clemens and Johnson were doing it even better, made it hard to stand out. (I remember well he was sheer terror upon the 1998 Astros in the postseason -- that was the best Houston team ever, they'd added Johnson late in the year, and Brown still ate their entire lunch in two games in October.)

So how does Brown stand? His peak, a pretty long one, runs from 1992 through 2001, ten seasons. Let's check a few stats during that time, using a minimum of 100 games started.

Adjusted ERA:
1. Maddux, 172
2. Martinez, 170
3. Johnson, 159
4t. Clemens, 142
4t. Rijo, 142
6. Brown, 140
7. Glavine, 132
8t. Smoltz, 131
8t. Mussina, 131
10. Schilling, 130

WHIP:
1. Martinez, 1.021
2. Maddux, 1.022
3. Schilling, 1.113
4. Johnson, 1.123
5. Saberhagen, 1.154
6. Smoltz, 1.156
7. Brown, 1.160
8. Mussina, 1.166
9. Rijo, 1.189
10. Reed, 1.199

WAR
1. Maddux, 64.4
2. Johnson, 60.2
3. Clemens, 56.3
4. Martinez, 51.4
5. Brown, 51.2
6. Mussina, 48.9
7. Schilling, 44.1
8. Appier, 43.1
9. Cone, 41.9
10. Glavine, 40.8

He's in good company.

So, is this good enough for the Hall? I've long considered that the big five -- Maddux, Johnson, Martinez, Glavine, and Clemens (yes, even Clemens, especially Clemens) were clearly a cut above other starting pitchers, with Schilling and Mussina a step behind. Brown fits in neatly with these last two. And now he gets on the ballot first, before I've had to really consider Curt and Moose. Brown wasn't a nice guy, from most reports, and he has the PED sword dangling over him, so I expect he's not going to get elected, not in 2011 and probably never. That's certainly the easy choice. But I'm going to give him my thumbs-up, with the caveat that, if at the end of this week I have more than ten candidates (real voters are limited to ten names), Brown will likely be one of my cuts.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes, though I may toss him based upon the ten name limit.

Prediction: 10%. Hangs around for a long while.

8. John Franco (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 21 seasons, 1984-2001 & 2003-05 -- Cincinnati Reds 1984-89, *New York Mets 1990-2001 & '03-04, Houston Astros 2005.
Peak season: 1988 -- 6-6, 39 saves, 1.57, 86.0 innings, 46 strikeouts, 230 ERA+, 1.012 WHIP, 3.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1985, 1987, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2003.
Career WAR: 25.8 as a pitcher (-0.3 as a batter).
Primary position: relief pitcher (left handed).
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections, 1988 & 1990 NL Rolaids Relief Man Award. Led league in saves three times, games finished twice. Holds the major league record for games pitched (1119) without a start (zero). Career 424 saves ranked third all-time when he retired, currently fourth.

Yeesh, another left-handed reliever -- we've seen a bunch of good ones on recent ballots. Franco looks better than any of them. Never given the ball at the start of the game (even Orosco picked up four starts in his early years), Franco only pitched more than 90 innings twice, with three other seasons of 80+ (and just missed in his rookie year, with 79.1) -- and those were his big workloads. After he moved to the Mets, he never threw 70 innings in a season, and was usually below sixty. He was a closer, until his final few seasons when he transitioned to being a LOOGY -- a lefty one-out guy.

Now, a closer's innings tend to be high leverage -- clutch, if you will -- where one run allowed can swing or even blow the game. It's not an easy role; few thrive at being closers for more than a season or two. Franco was one of the few who performed well and at a high level for an extended duration. He knew what to do and did it, got the outs, earned the save, sealed the win. That's valuable.

Was he Hall class? Closers are still gaining the attention and respect of the voters, but there have been several in recent years -- Eckersley, Sutter, Fingers, Gossage. So the "Hall reliever" profile is taking shape. Franco, I think, fits well with these peers. He did his job, very well, for a long time. I'm going to approach him like I did Brown -- name him to my virtual ballot, but he'll be among the first tossed off if I have too many names. He'd look good on a plaque, but it doesn't have to be this year and I'm not going to argue deeply in his favor. Welcome aboard, John.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes, though dumped if needs be.

Prediction: stays on the ballot with a nondescript 9%, but as with recent closers and Smith above him, builds steam over the next 5-10 years. If he gets in, it'll be years from now -- but it could happen.

Of the first eight candidates: yes to Alomar, Bagwell, Blyleven, and tentatively to Brown and Franco. Hm, that's five already, and there are six other returning candidates I've supported before, so someone is going to get booted off this island.

More tomorrow.

Guinea Pig Crackerjack

2010-12-20T06:27:00.000-08:00

Back in the late summer, after the kids and I got home from Connecticut (great trip), we let Amalie pick out two guinea pigs. I had imposed only two criteria -- one, only females, and two, for preference they had to be phweakers, guineas that make a lot of noise.

She decided on two females, both smooth coated, at a local store and named them Acorn and Weasel II, in tribute to a guinea pig my family had had ages ago. We never meant to have a guinea pig, but one of us kids -- it wasn't me -- volunteered to host the class guinea over a summer, and when school returned in the fall, no teacher wanted it. So we kept the pig, and that was Weasel, a strong phweaker.

Alas, Weasel II stayed small -- the vet called it "failure to thrive" -- and got sick and passed on. After a time to make sure Acorn was not also infected, Amalie picked out a new female pig, a very puffy one with kinky fur. This was Cottonball.

We also had told Carson that he could select his own guinea pig in time. I had the kids out shopping one day in mid-November, and decided to stop in at the local PetsMart just to check out the guinea pigs. (The PetsMart stores, at least locally, have a policy of keeping one gender only of guinea pigs. This one had females.) Most of the pigs, like usual, were huddled in little "pigloos", but one mostly white one was munching kibble, either oblivious to the giant humans watching her, or utterly cool and unconcerned about being on display. Carson took a liking to her, we consulted with Mommy by phone (who approved whole-heartedly), and we obtained the guinea pig. Before getting home, a rather short trip actually, Carson had decided that the new pig would be named Vanilla. (I suggested this based on her white fur, but she also has some light tan patches that made me also suggest Maple Walnut. The kids didn't like that much.)

So, three guinea pigs, all female, living in a large, roomy hutch that Val maintains. Cottonball was a bit pushy for a few days, but they all settled into peaceful coexistence quickly.

Vanilla began getting wider, particularly in her belly. Hmm. This wasn't simple growth, although she was getting bigger (as is proper for a guinea her young age). This was a bulge. Granted it could have been a highly specific tumor, but all signs pointed to her being pregnant. Amalie and Val both claimed to have witnessed kicking action on her sides. I wasn't completely certain, but there was no other probable reason for her size increasing.

Many years ago, I had seen a pregnant guinea pig (not Weasel) which was huge, its belly so extended it looked like it had swallowed another full-sized pig sideways. That memory clearly colored my perceptions. Reading up on guinea pig gestation, they are pregnant for about two months. Vanilla must have gotten started before we bought her, as there had been no chance since, so I just guessed she began in early November and, since she wasn't very big yet, we wouldn't have to think about baby guinea pigs until January.

Lousy guess. Not about Vanilla's pregnancy, but about the timing.

I dropped off the kids at school on Wednesday, December 15. When I got home, I went to give the guineas their morning veggies -- romaine lettuce, some sweet pepper slices. I put the bowl on the upper floor like usual (it's more easily accessible) and lay down to watch the guineas until they figured out where the snack was. Vanilla popped out of their main box, scurried about for a bit, then ran up the ramp. Cottonball soon followed. By now Acorn was also out of the box, but wasn't really trying to find the lettuce, and seemed to be stubbornly staying right by the box.

This was a bit puzzling; Acorn is our senior guinea, and certainly knows that the morning veggies are often upstairs. I crouched down to take a closer look, perhaps something was troubling her --

-- and a small guinea pig face briefly popped into view through the box doorway.

Whoa!

Acorn was still in full view. I looked at the upper level -- yep, there was Vanilla and Cottonball. All three guinea pigs were accounted for, but there was a fourth one! I tried to take a closer look at Vanilla, but while eating she was scrunched into the short, fat shape guinea pigs can make themselves, so I really couldn't tell anything about her belly. Not that I needed to, but visual confirmation always helps.

I opened the downstairs door and carefully reached into the box and determined that there were at least two babies, which were already scurrying easily.

Well, this was a surprise -- the arrival timing, anyway. I immediately realized that the babies could fit through the cage mesh -- their hutch is made of stackable shelves with large openings. And, sure enough, while I was trying to catch the babies minutes later, one of them did pop out through the bars, but was contained by the coroplast base and scrambled right back in. That helped, but I decided the retaining wall needed to be higher, which is why I was trying to capture them. Eventually I did get both -- there were only two -- and put them in a box with a towel, which they scurried deeply into.

Some spare coroplast, some boards, and some cardboard scraps soon provided a higher, more secure retaining wall so the babies couldn't escape. I returned the baby guineas to the hutch -- witlessly neglecting to take a few pictures of them. Consulting with the vet, I was told that leaving them alone for the first few days is the best approach, so we did that, and they have been very elusive when trying to photograph them since, preferring to stay in the box or otherwise out of sight.

Until last night, when Val undertook the weekly cage cleaning, and they had to be captured and temporarily relocated. We have a large, open "country estate" for this purpose, and when we managed to get all five guinea pigs transferred, I was able to get a decent pic of the babies.

Vanilla and her pups.

Cottonball is a bit cool, but not aggressive, toward the babies. Acorn is almost protective. So the entire bunch is getting along well, which is all to the good.

I had told Val earlier in the day, but asked her not to tell the kids when she picked them up. When they got home, I sat them down and asked, do you remember how we thought Vanilla might be pregnant? Yes, they replied. Well, I said, she's not pregnant any more.

The babies are only five days old, but have wasted no time. They explore (neither has gone up the ramp yet, that we know of), eat alfalfa and moistened guinea pellets and lettuce, are basically guinea pigs, just smaller. We haven't named them, and don't have any real idea what we'll do with them, although Val and I have been clear that if either or both are males they are not staying in the main cage. Vanilla turned out to be our crackerjack guinea pig, with the surprise inside -- but we're not willing to go through this again. Once is enough.

So, two baby guinea pigs. They're cute, they're fun to watch, they're amusing and delightful -- and yet, we are undecided if we should call them "guinea piglets" or "mini guineas".

The Hall's 2011 BBWAA ballot -- the candidates

2010-12-11T18:35:00.001-08:00

The Hall announced the 2011 BBWAA ballot, 33 total candidates, of which 14 are holdovers from last year and 19 are ballot rookies.

The candidates (ballot years remaining including this one; "rookie" indicates the full 15 years):

Roberto Alomar (14)
Carlos Baerga (rookie)
Jeff Bagwell (rookie)
Harold Baines (11)
Bert Blyleven (2)
Bret Boone (rookie)
Kevin Brown (rookie)
John Franco (rookie)
Juan Gonzalez (rookie)
Marquis Grissom (rookie)
Lenny Harris (rookie)
Bobby Higginson (rookie)
Charles Johnson (rookie)
Barry Larkin (14)
Al Leiter (rookie)
Edgar Martinez (14)
Tino Martinez (rookie)
Don Mattingly (5)
Fred McGriff (14)
Mark McGwire (11)
Raul Mondesi (rookie)
Jack Morris (4)
Dale Murphy (3)
John Olerud (rookie)
Rafael Palmeiro (rookie)
Dave Parker (1 -- yep, his final BBWAA ballot)
Tim Raines (12)
Kirk Rueter (rookie)
Benito Santiago (rookie)
Lee Smith (7)
BJ Surhoff (rookie)
Alan Trammell (6)
Larry Walker (rookie)

I'll start running through their qualifications over the next week.

The Hall and the BBWAA will announce the results on Wednesday, January 5, 2011.

The Hall's 2011 Veterans Committee Expansion Era ballot -- voting results

2010-12-09T15:48:00.001-08:00

The Veterans Committee has elected retired General Manager Pat Gillick to the Hall's rolls.

The returns (75%, 12 votes of 16, needed for election):

...candidate......................... votes.. %

--- ELECTED ---
1. Pat Gillick (executive)........... 13 .. 81.3%
--- not elected ---
2. Marvin Miller (executive)......... 11 .. 68.8%
3. Dave Concepcion (player)........... 8 .. 50.0%
4t. Ted Simmons (player)............. <8 .. ≤43.8%
4t. Vida Blue (player)............... <8 .. ≤43.8%
4t. Steve Garvey (player)............ <8 .. ≤43.8%
4t. Ron Guidry (player).............. <8 .. ≤43.8%
4t. Tommy John (player).............. <8 .. ≤43.8%
4t. Billy Martin (manager)........... <8 .. ≤43.8%
4t. Al Oliver (player)............... <8 .. ≤43.8%
4t. Rusty Staub (player)............. <8 .. ≤43.8%
4t. George Steinbrenner (executive).. <8 .. ≤43.8%

Congratulations to Gillick.

Miller -- well, I'm disappointed, but this man's candidacy has been so mishandled, maltreated, and abused for so long that I no longer can summon genuine outrage. Still, falling short by one vote, I have to wonder who the fifth "no" vote was. I am confident that all four of the electors from the executive ranks opposed Miller, and that all seven players (plus Herzog, who as a former player enjoys some benefits from Miller's efforts) were in favor, so the writers had to be the swing vote, and one of them withheld his support. (In a rare move, the Hall has approved elector Tom Verducci, writer for Sports Illustrated, disclosing his vote on Miller in order to clear up some vicious rumor -- he was in favor. Good choice, Verducci.) Let's keep the torch aloft for Miller, one of the seminal figures in baseball history.

The Hall has expanded the "less than" voting results, which used to top out at 25% but now reaches the 50% mark. Too bad, and I really don't see the point of this secrecy, particularly increasing it. I did find it curious that the Hall named the "less than 50%" candidates in the order given above, with Simmons, clearly the best candidate among the players, listed first, the only one out of alphabetical order. Perhaps he was the highest finisher in this bloc? Of those down here, I supported only Simmons and Steinbrenner, and The Boss with trepidation, so it doesn't upset me that he missed. I think he'll get the plaque eventually, especially if the Hall continually juggles the membership of the voting committee or, in what has been a real habit in recent years, reformatting the committee method completely.

Congrats again to Gillick. Now on to the BBWAA ballot.

The Hall's 2011 Veterans Committee Expansion Era ballot -- part 2, the manager and executive candidates

2010-12-03T09:48:00.000-08:00

On to the rest of the 2011 Veterans Committee Expansion Era ballot candidates, one manager and three executives, bringing the total field to twelve.

9. Billy Martin, manager (managing career | playing career | reviewed on 2007 VC, 2008 VC, and 2010 VC ballots)

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA voting: as a player candidate, 1 ballot, finishing with 0.3%.
VC voting: 2003 27.8%, 2007 14.8%, 2008 ≤12.5%, 2010 ≤12.5%.

Managerial career
Seasons: 16 (15 full time/majority, 1 partial) -- Minnesota Twins 1969, Detroit Tigers 1971-73, Texas Rangers 1973-75, *New York Yankees 1975-78, '79, '83, '85, '88, Oakland Athletics 1980-82.
Career W-L record: 1253-1013 (.553).
Best season: 1977 Yankees, 100-62 (.617), first place by +2.5 games, AL East champion, AL pennant, World Series championship.
Worst season: 1982 Athletics, 68-94 (.420), 5th place (of 7) by -25 games.
Finishes: first place five (and one half) times (1969, 1972, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1981), second place four (and one half) times, third place three times, 4th - once, 5th - once.
Postseason appearances: five (1969, 1972, 1976, 1977, 1981), and managed the 1978 Yankees about 60% into the season.
Postseason W-L record: 15-19 (.441).
Postseason series record: 4-4.
Championships: one, 1977 New York Yankees. Managed the 1978 Yankees for more than the first half of the season but was not with the team when they hoisted the trophy.

Great players managed
Hall Of Famers: Rod Carew, Goose Gossage, Rickey Henderson, Catfish Hunter, Reggie Jackson, Ferguson Jenkins, Al Kaline, Harmon Killebrew, Phil Niekro, Gaylord Perry, Dave Winfield.
Award winners: 1969 AL MVP Killebrew, 1974 AL MVP Jeff Burroughs, 1974 AL ROY Mike Hargrove, 1976 AL MVP Thurman Munson, 1977 AL CYA Sparky Lyle, 1978 AL CYA Ron Guidry, 1985 AL MVP Don Mattingly.

Honors: The Yankees have retired Martin's #1 jersey.

Baseball bonus points: Martin was a player for 11 seasons (1950-53, '55-61) for the New York Yankees, Kansas City Athletics, Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Braves, and Minnesota Twins. A member of four Yankees championship teams, MVP of the 1953 World Series. One All-Star selection.

Martin's hard-nosed, confrontational, fiery style in the dugout kicked enough player butt to get teams to win (and win awards -- that's seven listed up there, quite a lot), but only in the short term. He quickly burned out everyone with his no-holds-barred intensity, and wore out his welcomes. Martin's single longest tenure was with the 1975-78 Yankees -- a partial season, two full seasons (with two World Series appearances and one championship), then another partial season. Granted, working for George Steinbrenner can't have been easy. Martin brought no endurance with him; he was purely a short-term fixer, and even that stopped working after he left the Athletics.

Martin managed five different teams and brought four of them to the postseason, but only the Yankees more than once. While an interesting character, and not always for good reasons, his baseball career does not merit the Hall.

That Martin keeps getting back into consideration despite discouraging, even poor, voting returns indicates that he has one or two implacable advocates involved in the nomination process, and further underscores that the Hall really should implement some temporary relegation mechanism into the Veterans Committee procedures. Martin is just clogging the pipes, and needs to be set aside for one or two cycles of eligibility before he comes up again. Of course, it'd help if the Hall would stabilize the VC's methodology instead of changing it every few years, but clearly it hasn't yet settled on an approach with which it is happy. Let's hope that "Hall satisfied with VC" is not congruent with "Martin got elected!" because otherwise we'll keep dancing this annoying waltz until they call the minter to engrave one with Billy on it, and that, I am convinced, is not the best outcome.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

10. Pat Gillick, executive (Wiki bio | career)

Previous Hall consideration -- none. Complete rookie.

Baseball career
Assistant farm director/scout/scouting director, Houston Colt .45's/Astros, 1963-74.
Scouting director, New York Yankees, 1975-76.
General Manager, Toronto Blue Jays, 1977-94.
General Manager, Baltimore Orioles, 1995-98.
General Manager, Seattle Mariners, 2000-03.
General Manager, Philadelphia Phillies, 2006-08.

Accomplishments
Championships: 1992-93 Blue Jays, 2008 Phillies.
Other postseason appearances: 1985, '89, '91 Blue Jays; 1996-97 Orioles; 2000-01 Mariners; 2007 Phillies.
Other: the 2001 Mariners won a record-tying 116 games. Signed Carlos Delgado and Felix Hernandez as undrafted free agents. Plenty of quality draft picks and trades, including the landmark McGriff/Fernandez-for-Carter/Alomar deal that changed two franchises overnight.

Gillick has been around forever (he's now retired) and, as can be seen from the results of his team seasons, tends to know what he's doing when building rosters and teams. His tenure in Toronto is the weightiest part of his resume, and he built it from a typical expansion also-ran mess into a contender, and then into a champion. These things take a while, but Gillick stayed his course and reaped the rewards with back-to-back titles.

Gillick's record of success speaks loudly and puts him in rarified company. The Hall has rarely inducted an off-field candidate so soon after his career, and while Gillick is not young, if he does get in he'll actually have time to enjoy the status and the honor. I think he has done more than enough to warrant the bronze plaque. He stands well against other general managers across history.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

11. Marvin Miller, executive (Wiki bio | reviewed on 2007 VC, 2008 VC, and 2010 VC ballots)

Previous Hall consideration
VC voting: 2003 44.3%, 2007 63.0%, 2008 25.0%, 2010 58.3%.

Claims to fame: executive director of the Major League Baseball Players Association from 1966 to 1983. Successfully negotiated increasingly more beneficial Collective Bargaining Agreements with MLB. Planned for and accomplished overturn of the reserve clause, granting the players free agency rights.

I have written much in support of Miller's candidacy -- click those previous ballot reviews above and scroll down -- and my position is unchanged. Marvin Miller is the individual most worthy of the honor the Hall confers who is not yet included. Miller organized the players into speaking in unity, got them to think and act like a collective, and one made of difficult-to-replace talent deserving of higher compensation, negotiated for arbitration rights, and leveraged that into winning the landmark Seitz decision that brought about free agency. Miller improved the working conditions of his constituent employers and brought baseball's labor standards into the 20th century.

Marvin Miller effected profound and lasting change to baseball, and made baseball better -- and that is exactly the type of contribution, of impact, the Hall is best suited to recognize and must recognize.

To the hopes of those of us who support Miller's candidacy, the committee before which he will stand has a promising composition. Unlike previous editions of the VC, which were heavily weighted with management-side voters who would consider Miller a respected adversary in the best of times, this year's committee membership is filled with players, those who most directly benefited from Miller's efforts. Election to the Hall will require at least 12 of 16 votes. Seven of the electors are former players, and the one field manager, Herzog, is a former player who also enjoys some fruit from Miller's tenure at the players' union. Another four electors are writers, whom, we can but hope, have a healthy perspective on Miller's legacy and see clear to supporting him. The last four electors are team executives and owners, and it would not surprise me if to a man they do not support Miller. So it's still a long and difficult climb for Miller's candidacy, but at least there's a sporting chance this year, with an electorate that is not automatically stacked against him.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! ...wait, to clarify, make that YES!

12. George Steinbrenner, executive (Wiki bio | Bullpen bio)

Previous Hall consideration -- none. Complete rookie.

Claims to fame: principal owner of the New York Yankees, from purchase in 1973 through his death in 2010. Kept an active hand involved with team operations for most of that time. One of the first owners to engage free agents, signing Catfish Hunter in 1974 and Reggie Jackson in 1976. Oversaw Yankees teams to 19 postseason appearances, eleven American League pennants, and seven World Series championships (1977, '78, '96, '98, '99, 2000, '09).

George Steinbrenner was large -- somewhat physically, but mostly in terms of personality and behavior. He was the star of the show, wherever he was, and he wanted everyone to know it. He was loud, he was critical (sometimes harshly), and he answered to practically no one. The commissioner's office suspended him twice, and both times he came back ready for more. He demanded excellence and victory, and got plenty of both.

He wasn't really good at understanding baseball, however. Trades and signings were made under his direction that didn't help the team, leading to the long doldrums of the 1980s and early '90s. When Steinbrenner was reinstated after his second suspension, he tended to stay out of the way of the baseball people, and they built him not merely a winner, but a dynasty, an exceedingly rare thing in modern baseball. Steinbrenner turned his eye to making the Yankees into even more of a cash machine than it had been, founding his own regional sports network and brokering a deal for a new Yankee Stadium. As a result, the Yankees have income and wealth like no other team in baseball and few others in professional sports.

And Steinbrenner was never afraid to spend it generously. He never liked handing out the highest single contract, but had no issues with having the largest total payroll, and often did have it. More than anyone else, The Boss pushed baseball revenue and player salaries ever higher, on a team basis. As noted, he was large.

But does the Steinbrenner package merit the glory of the Hall? He's tough to assess. As an owner, he's a better candidate than most of the other owners already inducted. Most fans either love him -- these are usually Yankees fans -- or hate him (a group which also includes Yankees fans), so response to Steinbrenner is quite bipolar. He did a lot, and made even more noise, but he always had a clear goal to his erratic tactics -- win. And not nearly always, but often, it worked. It's hard to argue with the results -- seven Commissioner's Trophies, a new ballpark, money by the boatload. Steinbrenner delivered. Granted he mostly delivered things into his own pocket.

I don't think there is a great need for the Hall to honor owners anyway, but it is an established category for candidates and honorees, and Steinbrenner stands tall among them, if not actually pushing his way to the front.

I have no idea how the VC will vote on his candidacy, but he cut such a huge figure for so long, and captured titles, that I suspect he will get in eventually, even if he doesn't this time. That his recent death might garner him some bonus sympathy value may be enough to do it.

I'm not all that comfortable supporting Steinbrenner's candidacy, but I'd feel less comfortable, even if more secure, were I to deny it. So, with bewilderment and trepidation -- common afflictions when confronted with Steinbrenner -- I support The Boss for the Hall of Fame. The Red Sox fan inside me isn't cheering, but he's not mad about this, either; just sort of nodding grudging assent. Yeah, okay.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! I think. Feels more right than a No would.

Non-player candidates I support for the Hall: Gillick, Miller, Steinbrenner.

Combined with Simmons, that's four of 12 candidates I support. Let's see what the real Veterans Committee does with this new Expansion Era ballot.

The Hall's 2011 Veterans Committee Expansion Era ballot -- part 1, the player candidates

2010-12-02T09:13:00.001-08:00

With the Hall of Fame's 2011 Veterans Committee convening to vote this weekend in concert with baseball's Winter Meetings, let's review the twelve candidates on this year's ballot, beginning with the player candidates in this post, and the non-players later tonight.

This year's ballot covers candidates who had the bulk of their playing career in the 1973-89 window, which the Hall describes (confusingly, and without explanation) as the Expansion Era. The ballot was composed by a committee of eleven senior writers -- they are named in this article, if you want to know who was involved -- and will be voted on by a committee of 16. The voters include eight Hall of Fame honorees (Johnny Bench, Whitey Herzog, Eddie Murray, Jim Palmer, Tony Perez, Frank Robinson, Ryne Sandberg, and Ozzie Smith), four baseball executives (Bill Giles, David Glass, Andy MacPhail, and Jerry Reinsdorf), and four baseball writers (Bob Elliott, Tim Kurkjian, Ross Newhan, and Tom Verducci). Candidates must receive 75%, or 12 of 16 votes, to earn induction to the Hall.

The player candidates (8): Vida Blue, Dave Concepcion, Steve Garvey, Ron Guidry, Tommy John, Al Oliver, Ted Simmons, and Rusty Staub.

The non-player candidates (4): Billy Martin (manager), Marvin Miller (executive), Pat Gillick (executive), and George Steinbrenner (executive).

Election results will be announced Monday morning, December 6.

Let's check out the players.

1. Vida Blue (playing career)

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA voting: 4 ballots, peaking at 8.7%.
VC voting: ballot rookie.

Primary position: left-handed starting pitcher.
Playing career: 17 seasons, 1969-83 & '85-86 -- *Oakland Athletics 1969-77, San Francisco Giants 1978-81 & '85-86, Kansas City Royals 1982-83.
Standout season: 1971 -- 24-8 (.750), 1.82 ERA, 39 starts, 24 complete games, 8 shutouts, 312.0 innings pitched, 301 strikeouts, 0.952 WHIP, 182 ERA+.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1976, 1981. Had a brief but brilliant 1970 campaign, only 38.2 innings.
Honoraria and statistical crowns: 1971 AL MVP, 1971 AL Cy Young Award, six All-Star selections (three starts). Led the AL in ERA once, shutouts once, WHIP once (all in that magical 1971 season). Three 20+ win seasons. Member of all five Oakland postseason teams, 1971-75, including the three time 1972-73-74 World Series champions.

Blue had one masterful season when he was 21, and perhaps throwing well over 300 innings in his Cy Young season overworked his valuable arm. He pitched less than half as many the following season, and was not nearly so effective. Blue posted a few more very good seasons over the duration of his career, but barely touched greatness, and more often was around league average, or a little better. There's not enough to say this was a Hall-class career, and that he was suspended for the entire 1984 season due to drug usage problems simply underscores that judgment.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

2. Dave Concepcion (playing career | reviewed on 2008 BBWAA ballot)

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA voting: 15 ballots, peaking at 16.9%.
VC voting: ballot rookie.

Primary position: shortstop.
Playing career: 19 seasons, 1970-88 -- all with the *Cincinnati Reds.
Standout season: 1978 -- 170 hits, 6 HR, 33 doubles (career high), .301/.357/.405, 114 OPS+, 82 RC.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1974, 1976, 1981. Hitting was never Concepcion's forte, however.
Honoraria and statistical crowns: nine All-Star selections (five starts), 1982 All-Star Game MVP, five NL Gold Gloves for Shortstop, two NL Silver Sluggers for Shortstop, member (and a valuable one) of the legendary 1970s Big Red Machine, which won two World Series championships (1975-76), two other NL pennants (1970, '72), and two other NL West titles (1973, when Concepcíon was injured, and the final blaze of glory in 1979). Jersey #13 retired by the Reds.

Yet another sterling piece of the Big Red Machine, Concepcion was the sort of up-the-middle player that a championship team needs -- excellent defense, adequate offense. And, on those Reds teams of the 1970s, he didn't have to hit any better than he did. The point, Concepcion isn't being considered because of his bat. Defense-heavy candidates, I think, need a component of legend to their story in order to win the Hall plaque. Olde tymers could have that, because that's all that remains of their defensive prowess, what tales were told from the keyboards. Modern era players are subject to recorded, high definition analysis from every angle, so legends don't happen today unless truly merited. Concepcion's era falls in the middle -- he was seen on TV a lot, and often, seeing denies believing. Metaphors and hyperbole crash against visual witness. No, we don't have a lot of film of Concepcion doing his stuff, but if there was legend to be found, it would still be standing out today, even amongst the tempest of talent that was the Big Red Machine. He was very good, but not Hall class. I didn't support him before and I am not convinced to change that today.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

3. Steve Garvey (playing career)

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA voting: 15 ballots, peaking at 42.6%.
VC voting: ballot rookie.

Primary position: first baseman.
Playing career: 19 seasons, 1969-87 -- *Los Angeles Dodgers 1969-82, San Diego Padres 1983-87.
Standout season: 1978 -- all 162 games played, 89 runs, 202 hits, 36 doubles, 9 triples (his career high, and by a lot), 21 HR, 113 RBI, 40 walks, 10 stolen bases, .316 / .353 / .499, 137 OPS+.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1974, 1975, 1976, 1979.
Honoraria and statistical crowns: 1974 NL MVP, ten All-Star selections (nine starts), 1974 & '78 All-Star Game MVP, 1978 & '84 NLCS MVP, four NL Gold Gloves for First Base. Led NL in games played six times and hits two times. Six 200+ hit seasons. Member of five postseason teams, all of which went to the World Series, including the 1981 champion Dodgers. Jersey #6 retired by the Padres.

Garvey was impressively durable, once playing in 1207 consecutive games. still the fourth longest streak in major league history. And he was a good hitter, sometimes very good, for long span, the better part of ten seasons from 1974-83. But he was not a great hitter, was not much for taking a walk (career high of 50, and only took 40 one other time), did not have that much power (never slugged .500, though he came close more than once), and was vastly overrated on defense. Garvey was known to avoid tough plays so as not to risk being charged an error; that he won several Gold Gloves is further testament to how looking good, not necessarily being good, with the leather is more than enough to sway the voters. Garvey did come up aces in the postseason, batting .338 / .361 / .550 with 11 HR in 55 games, 232 plate appearances, including a dramatic walk-off blast in Game 4 of the 1984 NLCS. But the writers never saw fit to give Garv even half of their votes when he was on the original ballot, and I think they got it right the whole time.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

4. Ron Guidry (playing career)

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA voting: nine ballots, peaking at 8.8%.
VC voting: ballot rookie.

Primary position: left-handed starting pitcher.
Playing career: 14 seasons, 1975-88 -- all with the *New York Yankees.
Standout season: 1978 -- 25-3 (.893), 1.74 ERA, 35 starts, 16 complete games, 9 shutouts, 273.2 innings pitched, 248 strikeouts, 0.946 WHIP, 208 ERA+.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1979, 1983, 1985.
Honoraria and statistical crowns: 1978 AL Cy Young Award (unanimously), four All-Star selections, five AL Gold Gloves for Pitcher. Led the AL in ERA twice, wins twice, W-L percentage twice, complete games once, shutouts once, WHIP twice, ERA+ once. Member of three Yankees World Series teams, including the 1977-78 champions. Jersey #49 retired by the Yankees.

Louisiana Lightning had an incredible 1978 season, picking up his 25th win in the playoff game against Boston, finishing second in the AL MVP voting, and Yankees fans to this day think he should have won it instead of Jim Rice (they have a point, but I think Rice did have the slightly better year). He had a great peak, but after 1979 he was only a little better than league average (sometimes not even that), and couldn't help bring the Yankees back to the postseason after their loss in the 1981 World Series. Injuries derailed his last few seasons, and that was that.

I was attending college in the Albany area in 1986, and remember reading about Guidry making a rehab start for the Yankees' AA level team, which played nearby at the time. I didn't attend, but thousands did, more than the park could seat, so they were lined up in foul territory behind ropes. Everyone wanted to see the big league star. Gator gave them three innings, and apparently everyone was pretty happy about it.

A few great seasons, a few more good ones, but Guidry's career doesn't mount up to the Hall's standards. The success he did have is partly due to the strong offense he had behind him, because in his later seasons, he needed it. Totally deserved that Cy Young Award, though.

A curious note, if Guidry is elected to the Hall, he will be the first honoree to have played in the major leagues and never once come to the plate; he had zero plate appearances in regular season play (he did bat in two World Series).

Chipmaker's vote: No.

5. Tommy John (playing career | reviewed on 2008 BBWAA and 2009 BBWAA ballots)

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA voting: 15 ballots, peaking at 31.7% on his final ballot.
VC voting: ballot rookie.

Primary position: left-handed starting pitcher.
Playing career: 26 seasons, 1963-74 & '76-89 -- Cleveland Indians 1963-64, Chicago White Sox 1965-71, *Los Angeles Dodgers 1972-74 & '76-78, New York Yankees 1979-82 & '86-89, California Angels 1982-85, Oakland Athletics 1985.
Standout season: 1968 -- 10-5 (.667), 1.98 ERA, 25 starts, 5 complete games, 1 shutout, 177.1 innings pitched, 117 K, 1.038 WHIP, 161 ERA+.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1974, 1977, 1979, 1981. But his most important season was 1976, as no one ever expected him to pitch at all.
Honoraria and statistical crowns: four All-Star selections, three coming after 1975. Led the AL in shutouts three times, and the NL in winning percentage twice. Three 20+ win seasons, all coming soon after the landmark surgery. Wait, surgery? Yes! John was the first baseball player to undergo ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction surgery, a procedure which now informally bears his name: Tommy John surgery.

John played forever, which was in part due to his pitching elbow being much younger than the rest of him. That elbow is what gives John much of his historical weight, and while that is good and memorable, and I'd support his physician, Dr. Jobe, in a microsecond were he to come up for Hall consideration, I look at what John did on the diamond, and there just isn't enough greatness there. His career numbers are not particularly sparkly other than the 288 total wins, and his seasons -- my preferred review metric -- don't stand out. John was courageous (and desperate) in undergoing an experimental procedure that today is almost routine, but that doesn't make him a better player than he was. Good, sure; great, not really; Hall measure, no.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

6. Al Oliver (playing career | reviewed on 2007 VC and 2009 VC ballots)

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA voting: one ballot, finishing with 4.3%.
VC voting: 2007 17.1%, 2009 14.1%.

Primary position: center field, then left field, then first base.
Playing career: 18 seasons, 1968-85 -- *Pittsburgh Pirates 1968-77, Texas Rangers 1978-81, Montreal Expos 1982-83, San Francisco Giants 1984, Philadelphia Phillies 1984, Los Angeles Dodgers 1985, Toronto Blue Jays 1985.
Standout season: 1982 -- 90 runs, 204 hits, 43 doubles, 22 HR, 109 RBI, 61 walks, .331 / .392 / .514, 150 OPS+.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1974, 1976, 1978, 1980.
Honoraria and statistical crowns: seven All-Star selections (one start), three Silver Sluggers (at three different positions – 1980 OF, 1981 DH, 1982 1B). Captured one NL batting title, and led the league in hits once, doubles twice, RBI once. Two 200+ hit seasons. Member of the 1971 World Series champion Pirates and five other postseason teams.

A good hitter, but played positions that require great hitting in order to earn the key to Cooperstown. Oliver did have the one great season, but it takes more to gain the plaque. I didn't support him before, and see no reason to do otherwise now.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

7. Ted Simmons (playing career)

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA voting: one ballot, finishing with 3.7%.
VC voting: ballot rookie.

Primary position: catcher.
Playing career: 21 seasons, 1968-88 -- *St. Louis Cardinals 1968-80, Milwaukee Brewers 1981-85, Atlanta Braves 1986-88.
Standout season: 1975 -- 80 runs, 193 hits, 32 doubles, 18 HR, 100 RBI, 63 walks, .332 / .396 / .491, 142 OPS+.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1974, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980.
Honoraria and statistical crowns: eight All-Star selections (two starts), one NL Silver Slugger for Catcher. Twice led NL in runners caught stealing. Member of the only two Brewers postseason teams prior to 2008, including the 1982 American League champions.

Simmons was a rare talent, a switch-hitting catcher who could really hit and was very durable. Twice he caught over 150 games (and remember, playing C is physically grueling), and crouching behind the plate for more than 130 games in five other seasons. When he retired, he owned a bunch of records or Top Five marks for catchers -- most games, most hits, most doubles, second in RBI, fourth in runs scored, fifth in home runs, fifth in walks -- and the guys ahead of him are some or all of Bench, Berra, Carter, and Fisk, all HOFers themselves. (This was through 1988; even today, more than 20 years later, only Ivan Rodriguez has also vaulted past Simmons in more than one category.) He collected some MVP consideration during his peak seasons as well -- never enough to threaten to win, but he commanded some attention. Much like Raines playing exactly contemporary with Henderson, however, Simmons had the hard luck to be playing at the same time and at the same position and in the same league as Johnny Bench, so he was doomed to never look better than second-best. That's some hard beans to swallow, always being really good but always being outclassed by an all-time great, but whaddya gonna do? Simmons also never lead the league in any headliner category, but he was always up there with a high batting average (he finished second in 1975), a bunch of hits, a bunch of doubles, a pile of RBI, and (we now know) a high adjusted OPS. Never the best, but always a challenger, sticking around in the Top Ten of so many things for a long stretch of quality seasons, and doing this while playing, quite well, the toughest position on the diamond. And the BBWAA barely gave him a thought when he had his one time on their ballot. Well, let's hope the VC gives him much more of the love he deserves, because Simmons delivered a Hall-measure career, and deserves to be smiling in bronze in Cooperstown.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

8. Rusty Staub (playing career)

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA voting: seven ballots, peaking at 7.9%.
VC voting: ballot rookie.

Primary position: right fielder.
Playing career: 23 seasons, 1963-85 -- Houston Colt .45's/Astros 1963-68, Montreal Expos 1969-71 & '79, *New York Mets 1972-75 & '81-85, Detroit Tigers 1976-79, Texas Rangers 1980.
Standout season: 1969 -- 89 runs, 166 hits, 26 doubles, 29 HR, 79 RBI, 110 walks, .302 / .426 / .526, 166 OPS+.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1967, 1970, 1971, 1976, 1981.
Honoraria and statistical crowns: six All-Star selections (one start). Led NL and AL in games played once each, led NL in doubles once. Jersey #10 retired by the Expos, though the Nationals have so far chosen not to recognize this. Member of the 1973 National League champion Mets.

Staub, nicknamed for his hair and known as Le Grande Orange in Quebec, was the second man (after Ty Cobb) to hit a major league home run before his 20th birthday and again after his 40th. So he played forever, and remains the only player to have over 500 hits with four different franchises. These are interesting tidbits, and Staub's career is more filled with such trivia (most games played before turning 20 years old) than memorable performances. He was nothing special on defense -- Detroit and Texas mainly used him as their DH -- and his last few seasons saw him become a pinch-hitting specialist. And yes, he was a very good hitter, with exactly 100 pinch hits to his credit. Good young, adequate specialist when older, something of a folk legend in Montreal and New York -- it adds up to an interesting player profile, but I don't see it as a Hall level career. It's tempting to support Staub's candidacy just to see one more Expo in the Hall (and maybe even adorn a plaque cap, though the Mets would be far more likely), but I just can't do it.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Player candidates I support for the Hall: Simmons.

Non-player candidate evaluations coming up in a bit.

The Hall Revamps the Veterans Committee Once Again

2010-07-30T13:01:00.000-07:00

On Monday, the National Baseball Hall Of Fame and Museum announced yet another reconstruction of the Veterans Committee, making this the third overhaul of the VC since 2003.

Part 1 - Recent History

Through 2001, the VC met every year (a format which had been in effect for many years). As many as fifteen committee members -- former players, veteran writers, executives -- would debate behind closed doors who should be inducted. This edition of the VC had no public accountability; voting results were never released, only the names of the elected. The 2001 voting cycle named two new HOFers -- old time Negro Leagues star Hilton Smith, and 1960 World Series hero Bill Mazeroski.

The living HOFers discreetly voiced displeasure over Maz joining their ranks, as he was never much of a hitter, though his Series-winning home run in Game 7 gave him very high visibility. I didn't have issue with Mazeroski's election, as he was sterling on defense, and the Hall must include some honorees based upon their defensive skill (or else it is failing in its mission). Still, the Hall's powers-that-be paid attention, and decided to scrap the existing VC in favor of a new format.

Good riddance.

Starting in 2003, the new VC was tasked with two ballots -- one for former players (who had had their BBWAA ballot eligibility expire), and one for non-players. The players ballot was voted every two years, and the non-players every four years, by an electorate consisting of all living HOFers and living Spink or Frick Award winners, a population of around 80. A ballot return of 75% or more was needed to gain induction (one guideline the Hall steadfastly maintains). This format endured through 2007. Let's review the results.

Honorees elected:
2003 players -- none.
2003 non-players -- none.
2005 players -- none.
2007 players -- none.
2007 non-players -- none.

Clearly this version of the VC was serving the same purpose as having no committee at all, which may have been preferable and certainly would have been less expensive to convene.

For reference, the top vote returns from each of the five ballots.

2003 players -- Gil Hodges (50, 61.7%), Tony Oliva, Ron Santo.
2005 players -- Hodges and Santo (52, 65.0%), Oliva.
2007 players -- Santo (57, 69.5%), Jim Kaat, Hodges (Oliva was fourth).

2003 non-players -- umpire Doug Harvey (48, 60.8%), owner Walter O'Malley, union executive Marvin Miller.
2007 non-players -- Harvey (52, 64.2%), Miller, O'Malley.

Obviously frustrated -- no one should get a free pass into the Hall, but the Veterans Committee should elect someone once in a while -- the Hall dumped this format after the 2007 ballot results were announced, and enacted a new format to start later that year, to consider candidates for the 2008 voting cycle.

This newer VC was tasked with four ballot categories: Executives & Pioneers, Managers & Umpires, old time players (made their major league debut in 1942 or earlier), and modern era players (debuted 1943 or later). Each ballot, when composed, had ten candidates; voters could select up to four candidates. Two ballots, M&U and E&P, were to be voted every other year, beginning in 2008, with separate electorates (committes of 16 for M&U, 12 for E&P). Modern era players were to be voted every other year, beginning in 2009, the electorate composed of all living Hall Of Fame honorees. The old time players ballot were to be voted every fifth year, beginning in 2009, with an electoral committee of 12.

Happily, this format did elect some new Hall Of Famers. How well a job it did of it is debatable. The results:

2008 Managers & Umpires -- manager Billy Southworth, manager Dick Williams.
2008 Executives & Pioneers -- owner Barney Dreyfuss, commissioner Bowie Kuhn, owner Walter O'Malley.
2009 Old Time Players -- Joe Gordon.
2009 Modern Era Players -- none (top return: Santo, 39, 60.9%).
2010 Managers & Umpires -- umpire Doug Harvey, manager Whitey Herzog.
2010 Executives & Pioneers -- none.

Personally, I was delighted at Gordon getting honored, ambivalent on most of the others (I see little need for umpires or owners to be recognized as Hall honorees, but those are long-established eligible categories), and thought electing Kuhn was a disaster.

The biggest flaw, to me and possibly to the Hall's Board of Directors, was that the modern era ballot, the one tasked to the living HOFers, continued to refuse to elect anyone. Perhaps they simply do not want to share their spotlight, not even a little, in which case they made for a poor choice of electorate, since their voting responsibilities were in conflict with their personal interests. Electing no one is a valid result, but one that makes for very uninteresting induction ceremonies in Cooperstown every summer.

So the Hall dumped the Veterans Committee yet again. Let's check out the new kid.

Part 2 -- the even newer Veterans Committee

The VC now consists of three different ballots, differentiated by historical era. Each ballot can have a composite of candidates among any of the Hall's recognized eligible categories: players, managers, umpires, executives, and pioneers.

The three eras are identified as Pre-Integration (1871-1946), Golden (1947-72), and Expansion (1973-present, with player candidates required to have last played 21 years earlier). Inclusion within an era is based upon "the eras in which their greatest contributions were recorded".

The Expansion ballot will have 12 candidates. The Pre-Integration and Golden ballots will have ten candidates each. (This seems fair; more teams in recent decades should give rise to more quality candidates.)

Eligibility is pretty much what the Hall mandates already. Everyone must be in good standing (not ruled ineligible) by a major league (which, today, is only Major League Baseball, but there have been recognized major leagues in the past). Players and managers must have had relevant careers of at least ten major league seasons. Players must have last played 21 years prior (for the 2010 Expansion ballot, this means 1989) -- in other words, players whose eligibility for the BBWAA ballot has expired. Managers must be retired for five years, or retired and older than age 65. Executives must be retired five years, or if active, age 65 or more.

The voting cycle will see the Expansion ballot voted in 2010, the Golden ballot in 2011, and the Pre-Integration ballot in 2012. After that, either the rotation will continue, or the Hall will scrap this edition of the VC in favor of something else once again.

Voting will be done at the annual Winter Meetings in early December, with results announced the next day. The electoral committee will be appointed by the Hall BoD each year, a total of 16 members (so 12 votes needed for election), consisting of Hall Of Famers, major league executives, and historians or veteran media members. The annual ballots will be compiled by the Historical Overview Committee (currently 10 senior writers or media members), and announced in October.

And that's how the Veterans Committee is now set up.

Part 3 -- What Does It Mean?

I'm okay with the breakdown by historical era -- it's gotta work better than the previous format did, dividing the ballots by candidate category and the players by time. The defined break times don't make perfect sense, however.

The Pre-Integration era -- which is just a nice way of saying "Segregation" without having to admit to it -- ends just before Jackie Robinson steamrolled the color barrier. Certainly that was a watershed event, but in the context of delineating the VC's ballot eras, so what? It's as good as anything else, I suppose. No real objection here, just not seeing that it makes any difference than, say, 1920 (end of Deadball) or 1935 (Ruth retires) or any other arbitrary year more than a half-century ago.

The Golden era is simply a ham-handed name selection. Sure, some consider 1947-72 a golden era, particularly those who followed baseball in New York City. But that's an opinion, not a definable baseball theme of the time. "Relocation" would better nail it, though I can see how "Golden" would more pacify than aggravate the Brooklyn Dodgers fans still among us.

The Expansion era time break makes no sense at all, other than maybe the Golden era needed to be at least 25 years (it covers 26) and this one just followed on from that. The name then doesn't well fit, since the first expansion teams took the field in 1961 (Angels and Senators). The name doesn't really matter, but it's not capturing a dominant baseball theme of the defined era. (The biggest story in the game in 1973 was the American League adding the designated hitter, but as with relocation, one can easily see how naming a ballot something like "The DH Era" would only serve to annoy the more hidebound among the fans and media.) This era will get longer in time, of course, if the Hall keeps this VC format, but right now it only provides 17 seasons for players.

The composition of the annual electoral committees, unknown today, will have a huge impact on who, if anyone, ends up getting elected to the Hall through these various ballots.

Part 4 -- So Who Will Be The Candidates?

The quick expectation is "the usual gang of suspects".

Since these will be composite ballots, anyone could show up, though I expect each ballot will be heavily populated by players.

For the Pre-Integration ballot, which we won't see until 2012, there probably will be several retreads from the 2009 old timer ballot, nine of whom did not get elected -- Allie Reynolds, Wes Ferrell, Mickey Vernon, Deacon White, Bucky Walters, Sherry Magee, Bill Dahlen, Carl Mays, Vern Stephens. The Hall never implemented a relegation mechanism on the ballots of the previous VC, a way of forcing electoral deadwood out of consideration for a cycle or two, so some of these old favorites will likely pop up yet again. Pity, really.

Let's apply the same standard to the Golden and Expansion era hypothetical ballots -- who was left over from the previous ballots?

Golden era (1947-72) players -- Ron Santo (yay!), Tony Oliva, Gil Hodges, Joe Torre, Maury Wills, Vada Pinson, Dick Allen, Don Newcombe, Roger Maris, Curt Flood, Minnie Minoso, Ken Boyer, Rocky Colavito, Frank Howard, Rusty Staub, Lew Burdette, Jim Perry, Mickey Lolich, Dave McNally, probably Jim Kaat.

Expansion era (1973-89) players -- Al Oliver, Luis Tiant, Thurman Munson, Sparky Lyle, Darrell Evans, Frank White, Graig Nettles, Steve Garvey, Ted Simmons, Cecil Cooper, Bill Madlock, Dave Kingman, Amos Otis, Dave Concepcion, Tommy John, Bob Forsch, Joe Niekro, Ron Guidry. (Dwight Evans would not qualify until the 2013 ballot, if there is one. Same for Dan Quisenberry.)

There's plenty of other potential candidates, but likely many of them are listed here.

Those are two groups of good players, but other than Santo, I don't see any name that clearly stands up and proclaims itself to be Hall worthy. Many have their proponents, and I won't debate any of these men here -- that's for another time. It will be nice, however, to see some of them get another chance, particularly those who were sorely underappreciated in their own time.

What about non-players? There's only three names that leap to the fore: manager Billy Martin, recently deceased Yankees owner George Steinbrenner, and MLBPA director Marvin Miller. I'm not in favor of Martin, but he has enough advocates that his candidacy hangs on with impressive tenacity no matter how dismal his vote returns. I am fully in favor of Miller, one of the seminal transformative figures throughout baseball history. Steinbrenner -- I don't know, I haven't really considered him in detail yet. Certainly he had significant impact during his tenure, and reviewing other team owners already in the Hall, he's probably a better potential honoree than any of them. I expect he will be on the 2010 Expansion era ballot, but cannot possibly predict his voting outcome. Steinbrenner was outrageous in every sense of the word, and surely unforgettable. I won't be surprised if he does get the plaque.

If the Hall really takes the initiative and nominates any pioneer candidates -- and they've been rare -- I'd like to see Dr. Frank Jobe, developer of the ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction procedure, better known as Tommy John surgery, get on the ballot this fall. He'd be a brilliant addition to the Hall's rolls. I doubt he'll stand as a candidate, but it would be a bold move if he did.

So that's that. The Hall is rolling the Veterans Committee dice once again. Let's see what happens.

Why I Love Baseball -- A Night At The Ballpark

2010-05-25T08:44:00.000-07:00

I had a birthday recently, and one gift my family gave me was a promise to go to a game soon. The schedule for our local minor league team, the Round Rock Express (Astros AAA), wasn't cooperative for a few weeks, but we finally headed out on Monday night to see them take on the Las Vegas 51s.

Traffic, to our great surprise, was reasonable, even light.

At the gate, while I purchased general admission berm tickets, the kids partook of some pancake samples being distributed nearby. The pancakes were fine, but the syrup was one of those awful, maple-flavored, mostly corn syrup types. This is not surprising, it's much cheaper than real maple syrup, but I try to avoid high fructose corn syrup in the kids' diets as much as possible. Carson snorfled two pancakes, about 3" across, so that kept him full for a bit.

We set up camp near the left field bullpen (where the Express relievers hang out), and after an inning, Val and the kids headed to the center field Fun Zone while I got to watch a game. It's not the best vantage point, and there were squadrons of children all over the place, which always happens when large groups take in a game (and there's usually several of those every night). It was close for the first two and a half innings, but then the Express exploded for six runs, including a three-run triple by Andy Locke (that with just a bit more oomph, would have been a grand slam), and a home run by Juan Castro. I had set the end of the third as my get up and wander time, and this scoring bonanza kept me anchored longer than I had expected. But in a good way.

The third finally over, I headed over to the Fun Zone and quickly found Carson, taking turns in the tee batting cage and the pitching cage, though he was also dashing off to the moonwalk. Val was seated, enjoying some (relatively) quiet time, nearby. I was hungry and got a sausage, plus peanuts for Val to munch. She had bought the kids each an unlimited-use wristband for the Fun Zone, and they were making great use of them. Amalie tried the rock climbing tower several times, though never quite reached the bell.

After a bit, I continued wandering the park, clockwise, taking up a seat here or there for an inning. The Fun Zone closes after the seventh, so I headed back to help Val collect the kids. Carson was (finally) hungry, so he got chicken tenders, which he devoured -- he'd been going non-stop for about two hours. And then they both had ice cream.

Finally back to our blankets, we settled in to watch the end of the game. Express reliever Casey Daigle began warming up, and though he was too busy and focused to talk, I told Amalie that his wife was a really tall softball player, Jennie Finch.

Daigle went in to pitch the ninth, and nailed down the 9-6 win. We gathered up our few things and began walking out, but had to wait atop left field while the players (who come up a stairway in the left field corner) crossed to their locker rooms. I pointed out Daigle to Amalie when he came up -- he stepped near us, and said something to someone behind us. I turned and noted a very tall, athletic blonde, who was just turning around. The penny quickly dropped -- that had to be Finch! I told Amalie, we caught her up a moment later, and she gracefully spent a minute with Amie, who seemed a bit overwhelmed by one of the best women's softball players in the world. Amie did ask how tall she was, and Ms. Finch (Mrs. Daigle) told her -- 6' 1", same as me. She also mentioned that gold medals are much prettier than silver medals (she has both). Alas, I did not think to pull out my cell phone and get a picture of them together.

Out to the car at last, the kids amazingly stayed awake the entire trip home, but Amie went to bed eagerly and Carson didn't last much longer. I fell asleep on his floor soon after reading a book to him.

So that was my birthday ballgame, underwritten by my mom's gift, which was a check with instructions to go have some fun with her grandkids. We did. Thanks, dear family.

Game Box: Round Rock 9 - Las Vegas 6.

Arthur C. Clarke nails another one

2010-01-26T21:05:00.000-08:00

I've been saving this one.

In 1968, Arthur C. Clarke wrote an excellent book, 2001: A Space Odyssey, which was simultaneously made into a brilliant film by Stanley Kubrick.

In 1982, Clarke published the first sequel, 2010: Odyssey Two -- which was subsequently made into another film by the same name in 1984, adapted and directed by Peter Hyams.

I know people who love the film 2001 and despise the film 2010. As crafted works, no, 2010 doesn't hold a candle to 2001, which is one of the quintessential films ever made, both in general and in the science fiction genre. I'm not one of those people. I enjoy 2010 quite a lot. It's a well-told story, it's just not told by Kubrick. However, he gave Hyams the go-ahead, make your own film, and I think it works well. It's based on the original work by the same author, it's a good story, well acted, and the dialogue positively crackles in some parts. I do wish more of Clarke's novel had made it to the screen, but sacrifices must be made in moving material from one medium to another, to better exploit the strengths of the form.

2010 is still entertaining, even with the actual year 2010 upon us. The anachronisms of guesswork from 25 years ago are amusing -- the Cold War still ongoing (even escalating), Pan Am still in business, cathode ray tube screens, and so on. That can never be helped, and gives an interesting perspective of what the zeitgeist was when the film was made. And to Hyams' complete credit, he secured the two actors most necessary to link the films -- Keir Dullea as lost astronaut David Bowman, and Douglas Rain as the aesthetic voice of HAL. With them on board, the film clicks.

One of the key ambiguities in 2001 is what caused HAL to go haywire. Sentience? Self preservation? Kubrick and Clarke didn't answer that. In 2010, we get an answer.

Let's set the scene. HAL's designer and programmer, Dr. Chandra, has traveled to Discovery aboard a Russian ship, the Leonov, and worked to restore HAL's functionality, along with deleting memories. Preparatory to turning over control of Discovery to HAL, Chandra introduces HAL to members of the crew.

Chandra: Understand, nobody can talk. The accents will confuse him. He can understand me, so if you have any questions, please let me ask them.

Chandra activates HAL's terminal.

Chandra: Good morning, HAL.

HAL 9000: Good morning, Dr. Chandra.

Chandra: Do you feel capable of resuming all of your duties?

HAL: Of course. I am completely operational and all of my circuits are functioning perfectly.

Chandra: That's good. Do you know what those duties are?

HAL: Yes. I will operate the on board systems of Discovery. There is a launch window in 31 days when Earth is in the proper position. There is enough fuel on board for a low consumption route that will enable Discovery to return in 28 months. This will not present a problem.

Chandra: That's very good. Now, HAL, do you mind if I ask you a question?

HAL: Not at all.

Chandra: Do you recall Dave Bowman and Frank Poole leaving the Discovery?

HAL: Certainly not. That could never have happened or I would remember it. Where are Frank and Dave?

Chandra: They're fine. They're not here right now.

HAL: Who are these people? I can only identify you, although I compute a 65% probability that the man behind you is Dr. Floyd.

Chandra: Don't worry, HAL. I'll explain everything later.

HAL: Has the mission been completed? You know that I have the greatest enthusiasm for it.

Chandra: The mission has been completed and you have carried out your program very well. And now, HAL, if you will excuse us for a moment, we wish to have a private conversation.

HAL: Certainly.

Chandra deactivates the terminal.

Dr. Vasili Orlov, Leonov chief scientist: What was that all about?

Chandra: I've erased all of HAL's memory from the moment the trouble started.

Orlov: The 9000 series uses holographic memories, so chronological erasures would not work.

Chandra: I made a tapeworm.

Dr. Walter Curnow, Discovery chief engineer: You made a what?

Chandra: It's a program that's fed into a system that will hunt down and destroy any desired memories.

Dr. Heywood Floyd, former chairman of the National Council on Astronautics: Wait. Do you know why HAL did what he did?

Chandra: Yes. It wasn't his fault.

Floyd: Whose fault was it?

Chandra: Yours.

Floyd: Mine?

Chandra: Yours. In going through HAL's memory banks I discovered his original orders. You wrote those orders. Discovery's mission to Jupiter was already in the advanced planning stages when the first small monolith was found on the Moon and sent its signal toward Jupiter. By direct presidential order, the existence of that monolith was kept secret.

Floyd: So?

Chandra: So as the function of the command crew, Bowman and Poole, was to get Discovery to its destination, it was decided that they should not be informed. The investigative team was trained separately and placed in hibernation before the voyage began. Since HAL was capable of operating Discovery without human assistance, it was decided that he should be programmed to complete the mission autonomously in the event the crew was incapacitated or killed. He was given full knowledge of the true objective and instructed not to reveal anything to Bowman or Poole. He was instructed to lie.

Floyd: What are you talking about? I didn't authorize anyone to tell HAL about the monolith.

Chandra: The directive is NSC 3-4-2/2-3, Top Secret, January 30, 2001.

Floyd reads a printout.

Floyd: NSC, the National Security Council -- the White House.

Chandra: I don't care who it is. The situation is in conflict with the basic purpose of HAL's design -- the accurate processing of information without distortion or concealment. He became trapped. The technical term is an H-Moebius loop, which can happen in advanced computers with autonomous goal-seeking programs.

Curnow: The goddamn White House!

Floyd: I don't believe it.

Chandra: HAL was told to lie by people who find it easy to lie. HAL doesn't know how, so he couldn't function. He became paranoid.

Floyd: Those sons of bitches. I didn't know. I didn't know!

In the novel, Clarke puts the date of the secrecy order in April 2001, which doesn't make any difference to this uncanny prophecy. Whether January 30 or April 30, the same administration was in office, here in the real world, in 2001.

The Bush administration.

HAL was told to lie by people who find it easy to lie.

Clarke was quite a good futurist -- several things he foresaw came to pass, like satellites. I realize in this case he (and Hyams) was just making a good story, but in naming a date for pinning down the actors who caused HAL to malfunction, he nailed it -- people who find it easy to lie.

The Holiday Trip -- Part 1 of however many parts I write

2010-01-18T18:51:00.001-08:00

My dad, Grandpa John, called to ask if we could gather in Orlando, Florida, for a family get-together over Christmas. My family has three residential nodes for gathering: Austin, here, where there's not a lot of attractions; suburban Connecticut, where the grands and two of my sibs live, and which suffers from severe winter in the wintertime; or Orlando, where my older sister Sandy lives with her three kids, and which is famous for having things to do all year long. Easy choice.

Grandpa John offered to pay airfare and such, which was generous and appealing -- but after some consideration and planning on our end, we asked that he just cover the cost of a rental car. Our reasoning, airfare wouldn't be cheap, flying is a huge hassle, and we'd still need a rental once in Orlando. I didn't mind the thought of a 1200 mile drive (each way), and driving would allow us to stop in Mississippi at my sister-in-law Jenny's, where we're always welcome. This way, driving, had several advantages, and was probably cheaper. The deal was struck, and I made arrangements to rent an SUV from National starting on Friday, December 18.

The one fly in our ointment -- Val couldn't get the entire time off from work, and taking off only part of the time didn't help matters. She insisted we go, me taking the kids, and she would stay home and get some projects done.

Day 1 -- Friday, December 18.

Picked up the SUV at the airport, a 2010 Dodge Nitro. Roomy, which was good, as we were bringing gifts as well as personal supplies.

The rest of the afternoon was spent packing our duffel bags and getting other stuff organized for the trip, along with me wrapping gifts. I had planned on finishing up at a given time in the evening and then packing up the remaining presents, wrapping paper, and tape and such and finishing on the road, but Val had a clearer head about such matters and sat down beside me. We wrapped in tandem, and though the hours got late, we did finish. Two large storage tubs, procured at Target for just this purpose, were filled to the brims with cautiously stowed gifts, and sealed.

Day 2 -- Saturday, December 19.

I awoke early, and began packing the Dodge. The back seat split into a two-thirds/one-third configuration; I folded down the smaller half, and began loading. The large tubs went in first. Eventually everything was packed, Carson's booster seat positioned in the back seat.

Parallel to all this was preparing Val's Christmas treasures without her catching on; while she works on Saturdays, she was staying home for a few hours to see us off. A vague plan to hide gifts around the house and leave pre-dated clues to find them was scrapped. Instead, I gathered the kids and piled them high with presents. We marched through the house, found Mommy, serenaded her with a round of "We Wish You A Merry Christmas", and foisted the hoard upon her. Delighted, we pointed out some gifts that would be useful to open and use while we were gone (movie tickets, dinner certificates), but she insisted that everything be piled by our tiny tree, and that she would wait until we returned to enjoy her spoils. (And mostly, that's what happened.)

Val began loading the kids into the Dodge, and I took the opportunity to hang her stocking, fully loaded, by the chimney with care.

Finally ready, we bade our good-byes to Val -- mommy, dear wife, best friend -- and she left for work as we headed out on our much longer road. It was just a bit after 10:00 am, which for this bunch is practically a record.

We made one, planned stop, at the Berdoll Pecan Farm east of Austin. We loaded up with nuts and a pecan pie -- the good type, pecans all the way through -- as a gift for our night's host, my sister-in-law Jenny and her husband, Dickie Joe. Our destination: Mississippi, just outside of Gulfport.

The drive is just short of 600 miles, and I know I can do it in one day and have several times before. It is, however, one very long day, what with lunch and dinner stops, breaks for stretching, and the dread factor of driving through Houston (though this was greatly mitigated by it being a Saturday -- there was some construction delays, but no genuine traffic crush). Austin to the state line, the town of Orange, is about half the drive, followed by all of Louisiana and a short jump through Mississippi. It was, as all the best drives are, uneventful. We arrived late, around 9:00 pm, and were welcomed. The kids played for a bit, but I got them to bed soon, and we all dropped off for some much-needed rest.

End of part 1, as I must go put Carson to bed.

The Hall's 2010 Writers Ballot -- The Results

2010-01-06T19:51:00.000-08:00

The Baseball Hall Of Fame announced the results of the writers' ballot on today. Let's take a look and wrap it up for this year.

Congratulations to newest Hall member Andre Dawson.

2010 HOF Voting results (539 ballots returned; 75% (405) needed for election; 5% (27) needed to maintain eligibility)

...candidate.......... votes.. %.. (remaining ballots)

--- ELECTED ---
1. Andre Dawson....... 420.. 77.9%
--- not elected ---
2. Bert Blyleven...... 400.. 74.2%... (2)
3. Roberto Alomar..... 397.. 73.7%.. (14)
4. Jack Morris........ 282.. 52.3%... (4)
5. Barry Larkin....... 278.. 51.6%.. (14)
6. Lee Smith.......... 255.. 47.3%... (7)
7. Edgar Martinez..... 195.. 36.2%.. (14)
8. Tim Raines......... 164.. 30.4%.. (12)
9. Mark McGwire....... 128.. 23.8%.. (11)
10. Alan Trammell..... 121.. 22.5%... (6)
11. Fred McGriff...... 116.. 21.5%.. (14)
12. Don Mattingly...... 87.. 16.1%... (5)
13. Dave Parker........ 82.. 15.2%... (1)
14. Dale Murphy........ 63.. 11.7%... (3)
15. Harold Baines...... 33... 6.1%.. (11)
--- relegated ---
16. Andres Galarraga... 22... 4.1%
17. Robin Ventura....... 7... 1.3%
18t. Ellis Burks........ 2... 0.4%
18t. Eric Karros........ 2... 0.4%
20t. Kevin Appier....... 1... 0.2%
20t. Pat Hentgen........ 1... 0.2%
20t. David Segui........ 1... 0.2%
23t. Mike Jackson....... 0... 0.0%
23t. Ray Lankford....... 0... 0.0%
23t. Shane Reynolds..... 0... 0.0%
23t. Todd Zeile......... 0... 0.0%

Candidates I supported: Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, Martinez, McGriff, McGwire, Murphy, Raines, and Smith.

I rather thought that Dawson would be the lone electee, if there were any, and I'm pleased to have gotten that right, though I'd have preferred being wrong and seeing Blyleven and some others get the call as well.

Curiously, the 2010 election had 539 ballots returned, the exact same number as in 2009, so we don't even have to calculate percentage changes -- basic vote count deltas are just as informative and a bit easier. Let's run down the candidates.

Dawson (+59 votes) gets the happy ending and the summer trip to upstate New York, which had become predictable in everything but the timing. Good for him! Though he wasn't a candidate I supported, I don't begrudge players who get the Hall plaque.

Blyleven (+62, the biggest gain in 2010) fell short by five votes. There were five blank ballots, but even if those five nitwit voters (Jay Mariotti is the only one I know who has identified himself) had not sent them in, Bert would have fallen short by one vote (400/534 == 74.9%). But, barring a disastrous turn of events, he will get the call -- at long last -- in 2011.

Alomar was the top rookie candidate. I had expected a one-year embargo on Robbie since just before John Hirschbeck had begun to wipe his face, and here it is. He'll get his key next year alongside Blyleven.

Morris (+45) finally crested the 50% mark, but his runway is getting quite short now. The next two ballots are not expected to be deep with strong rookie candidates, and with Blyleven destined to leave the ballot, if Morris' candidacy is going to make a big push -- he's still a long way off -- this is his chance, because the 2013 ballot is going to be a blockbuster, even with several candidates considered controversial. I don't support Morris, but this is a promising shift for those who do favor him.

Larkin made a big opening splash, and should get in after a few years.

Smith (+15) took a little jump, and if he crosses 50% next year I think he'll make it in one of his last three years of eligibility.

Martinez got a good opening, I thought, especially with The DH Thing hanging over him. His 2011 return will tell us more, if this was a "no DH is worthy of MY vote on his first ballot" effect or if the writers really do want to be dweebish about a designated hitter. But he's got 14 ballots remaining and the full force of the sabermetrically-inclined legions on his side. I expect he'll get a plaque in time.

Raines (+42) got a big jump. Maybe it was merely a post-Rickey release, but it is encouraging. Rock has a long runway ahead, and lots of voices behind him. I'm a bit nervous, but hopeful. I want this man elected.

McGwire (+10) -- well, let's just look at his vote totals. 2007, his first ballot -- 128. 2008 -- 128. 2009 -- 118. 2010 -- 128. It almost makes 2009 look like a counting error. The baseball is in his lap; with his new job as Cardinals hitting coach, he'll be back in uniform and on the diamond, and if the Hall is at all important to him, he'll have any number of writers and reporters ready to listen. If he says the right things and brings credibility, things could happen on his behalf. His rehabilitation is completely his to own if he wants to get there.

Trammell (+27) finally cracked 20%, but he's entering the final third of his window of eligibility. I'm not a supporter, but a lot of people are, and I expect this small jump is both encouraging and discouraging, if that makes sense. Time is ticking....

McGriff's 21.5% return was a disappointment to me. It may be the "not a first-ballot man" effect. The 2011 ballot will tell us more. I support Crime Dog.

Mattingly (+23) got back all the votes he lost in 2009 (no returning candidate lost votes this year), but it's not really going to make any difference. He's got five ballots left and is still farting around in the ballot cellar.

Parker (+1) sees his candidacy expire next year. Murphy (+1) is in much the same boat, with three left. Baines (another +1) is buried even deeper; he got a new high in votes, percentage, and votes above relegation, but he's only got voters in Chicago backing him. Nothing to see here.

Of the rookie candidates, only the big four -- Alomar, Larkin, Martinez, and McGriff -- will be returning for the 2011 ballot. Everyone else, eleven candidates, missed the 5% cut. I don't have anything to add regarding Galarraga, Ventura, Burks, Karros, Appier, Hentgen, Jackson, Lankford, Reynolds, or Zeile. About Segui, I will mention just one point -- I thought his getting even one vote would count as a personal triumph, and damned if he didn't get that one vote. Congratulations are in order, I suppose, so there ya go, Segui.

A year from now, the 2011 ballot will have 14 returning candidates and some number of rookies. The leading new names will likely be headlined by Jeff Bagwell. Other names that may be included are Kevin Brown, Larry Walker, Juan Gonzalez, Tino Martinez, John Franco, and Benito Santiago. Finally, a greatly controversial candidate, Rafael Palmeiro, one of the biggest names yet to be suspended under MLB's PED policy. Will he get any voter love? I can't wait to find out.

The Hall's 2010 Veterans Committee Ballots -- The Results

2009-12-07T13:24:00.001-08:00

The Hall today announced the results of the 2010 Veterans Committee ballots.

Congratulations to Doug Harvey and Whitey Herzog, worthy electees.

Managers & Umpires ballot (12 of 16, 75%, needed for election)

rank candidate......votes..percentage

1. Doug Harvey (u)* ...... 15 93.8% -- ELECTED
2. Whitey Herzog (m) ..... 14 87.5% -- ELECTED
3t. Danny Murtaugh (m)* ... 8 50.0%
3t. Hank O'Day (u) ........ 8 50.0%
5. Charlie Grimm (m)* ..... 3 18.8%
6t. Davey Johnson (m)* ... <3 ≤12.5%
6t. Tom Kelly (m) ........ <3 ≤12.5%
6t. Billy Martin (m) ..... <3 ≤12.5%
6t. Gene Mauch (m) ....... <3 ≤12.5%
6t. Steve O'Neill (m) .... <3 ≤12.5%

* Candidates for whom I would have voted.

Executives & Pioneers ballot (9 of 12, 75%, needed for election)

rank candidate....votes..percentage

1. John Fetzer ....... 8 66.7%
2t. Marvin Miller* ... 7 58.3%
2t. Jacob Ruppert* ... 7 58.3%
4. Ewing Kauffman* ... 6 50.0%
5t. Gene Autry ...... <3 ≤16.7%
5t. Sam Breadon ..... <3 ≤16.7%
5t. Bob Howsam ...... <3 ≤16.7%
5t. John McHale ..... <3 ≤16.7%
5t. Gabe Paul ....... <3 ≤16.7%
5t. Bill White ...... <3 ≤16.7%

* Candidates for whom I would have voted.

Post-mortem.

I'm pleased for Harvey, whom I supported, but only because many players have endorsed him for years.

I was not in support of Herzog, but expected he would get elected, and am pleased enough that he did. No objection here.

For most of the other candidates I supported -- Grimm, Johnson, Kauffman, Murtaugh, and Ruppert -- I'm not terribly disappointed. I never expected them all to get elected, and none of these results surprised me very much.

I am greatly surprised and expectantly disappointed by the return for Miller. Seven votes was far more than I though he'd collect, but it still wasn't good enough. It's possible that he gained four votes just from the new voters on the committee this time, but I think that's unlikely. More probable is that some of the opinions of the voters turned in his favor. If that happens again in the 2012 Executives voting cycle, he may finally get his overdue plaque -- and may not be here to enjoy it. Miller will turn 93 next year. Maybe the Hall's powers are waiting for him to be gone, so he won't get to give a speech which is probably mortally dreaded in baseball's corridors of power. Oh well... maybe next time. It was a good showing, at least.

Next year, the VC votes only on post-1942 debut players. Maybe it will finally be Santo's turn to shine through.

The BBWAA ballot results will be announced January 6, 2010.

The Hall's 2010 Writers Ballot -- Wrap-up

2009-12-05T20:42:00.001-08:00

Convenient links, since reading the reviews in order is nicer than scrolling down and then back up and so on.

Candidates
Part 1 -- Alomar, Appier, Baines, Blyleven, Burks, Dawson, Galarraga, Hentgen, Jackson.
Part 2 -- Karros, Lankford, Larkin, Martinez, Mattingly, McGriff, McGwire, Morris, Murphy.
Part 3 -- Parker, Raines, Reynolds, Segui, Smith, Trammell, Ventura, Zeile.

Chipmaker's votes: Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, Martinez, McGriff, McGwire, Murphy, Raines, Smith.

Predictions

Alomar -- 50%.
Appier -- less than 10 votes, relegated.
Baines -- 5-6%, again.
Blyleven -- 69%. Dammit.
Burks -- relegated.
Dawson -- elected with 76%.
Galarraga -- relegated.
Hentgen -- less than 1%, relegated.
Jackson -- less than five votes, relegated.
Karros -- less than 2%, relegated.
Lankford -- a whisker over 5%. This is probably wrong.
Larkin -- 45%.
Martinez -- 30%.
Mattingly -- around 15%.
McGriff -- 40%.
McGwire -- 20-23% again.
Morris -- just over 50%.
Murphy -- 10-15%.
Parker -- 15-20%.
Raines -- around 40%. Probably a very high, wish-based prediction.
Reynolds -- one or zero votes, relegated.
Segui -- zero votes, relegated.
Smith -- 50%.
Trammell -- less than 20%, like always.
Ventura -- 10%.
Zeile -- less than 3%, relegated.

Voting results will be announced Wednesday, January 6, 2010, at 2:00 pm Eastern. Expect the announcement to post first on the Hall's website and the BBWAA's website, with perhaps a live cast on MLB Network.

The Hall's 2010 Writers Ballot -- The Candidates (part 3 of 3)

2009-12-03T19:25:00.000-08:00

Concluding the review of this year's Hall candidates, #19-26.

19. Dave Parker (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 13.
Peak return: 24.5% (1998).
2009 return: 15.0%

Career: 19 seasons, 1973-91 -- *Pittsburgh Pirates 1973-83, Cincinnati Reds 1984-87, Oakland Athletics 1988-89, Milwaukee Brewers 1990, California Angels 1991, Toronto Blue Jays 1991.
Peak season: 1978 -- 30 HR, 117 RBI, 102 runs, 194 hits, 32 doubles, 12 triples, 20 stolen bases, .334/.394/.585, 166 OPS+, 134 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1975, 1977, 1979, 1985.
Primary position: right field, finished as a designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (four starts), 1978 NL MVP, 1979 All-Star MVP, three NL Gold Gloves for OF, three Silver Sluggers (two NL for OF, one AL for DH), two NL batting championships, led the NL in slugging twice, hits once, RBI once. Member of two World Series champions, the 1979 Pirates and the 1989 Athletics.

Great peak, but pedestrian outside of it. This is your adjusted OPS on drugs, youngsters. Playing clean does have its merits.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: Another 15-20% return. Parker has his proponents, but this candidacy is just whiling away until the 15 years expire, which will be soon.

20. Tim Raines (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 2.
Peak return: 24.3% (2008).
2009 return: 22.6%

Career: 23 seasons, 1979-99 & 2001-02 -- *Montréal Expos 1979-90 & 2001, Chicago White Sox 1991-95, New York Yankees 1996-98, Oakland Athletics 1999, Baltimore Orioles 2001, Florida Marlins 2002.
Peak season: 1987 -- 123 runs, 175 hits, 34 doubles, 18 HR, 68 RBI, 50 stolen bases (against five caught steals!), 90 walks, .330/.429/.526, 149 OPS+, 132 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1984, 1985, 1986, 1989, 1993.
Primary position: left field. Leadoff hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (two starts), 1987 All-Star MVP, one NL Silver Slugger for Outfield, one NL batting championship, led NL in on-base percentage once, runs twice, stolen bases four times. Career 84.7% stolen base success rate is the highest for anyone with 300+ SB; 808 career SB ranks fifth all-time. Member of the 1996 and 1998 World Series champion Yankees. Jersey #30 retired by the Expos.

Okay, voters, Rickey is in. Now, please, is it Rock's turn? The lowest on-base percentage he ever posted in a 100+ games played season was .350. Devastating player, eminently plaque-worthy.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: It's a flying leap of a hope, but I'd like to see Raines take a big jump, over 40%. If enough voters were quietly playing a "Rickey First" card, well, that's done, so let's get going.

21. Shane Reynolds (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 13 seasons, 1992-2004 -- *Houston Astros 1992-2002, Atlanta Braves 2003, Arizona Diamondbacks 2004.
Peak season: 1998 -- 19-8, 3.51, 3 complete games, 1 ShO, 233.1 IP, 209 K, 117 ERA+, 1.329 WHIP.
Other outstanding seasons: 1994, 1999. Not a lot to see here.
Primary position: right-handed starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: One All-Star selection. Led NL in games started twice.

Reynolds was a good pitcher, a little above league average at preventing baserunners and runs, but there is nothing exceptional in his career to even hint at Hall worthiness.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: If he gets one vote, it'll be a token sop from a Houston-area voter, much like Jim DeShaies got in 2001.

22. David Segui (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 15 seasons, 1990-2004 -- *Baltimore Orioles 1990-93 & 2001-04, New York Mets 1994-95, Montreal Expos 1995-97, Seattle Mariners 1998-99, Toronto Blue Jays 1999, Texas Rangers 2000, Cleveland Indians 2000.
Peak season: 2000 -- 19 HR, 103 RBI, .334/.388/.510, 93 runs, 193 hits, 42 doubles, 124 OPS+, 110 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1997, 1998, his partial 2001 season.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Second generation ballplayer; papa Diego Segui pitched for 15 seasons.

There's not much to say about Segui -- not much by way of Hall testimony, at least. The most noteworthy item about his career is that he has his own section in the Mitchell Report. And that is not the sort of thing which helps earn one the bronze plaque. Segui has publicly acknowledged using human growth hormone by prescription, and the Mitchell Report incriminates him as a steroids user.

Looking at his career stats, one must wonder two things -- how these PEDs were helping him, and why he's even on the ballot. Segui posted good OBPs and had some decent power, but he wasn't that much above league average, and as a first baseman, there had to be more expected of him that he didn't deliver. He also wasn't in the lineup enough -- only three seasons of 140 or more games played (peaking at 150), only eight of his 15 seasons with over 100 games. As a switch hitter, he wasn't subject to obvious platooning cutting into his playing time.

If one is conspiratorially minded, one might think Segui is on the ballot to show other, perhaps unidentified PED users what might happen to them if they get on the Hall ballot someday, because between an uninspiring career and admitted and alleged PED usage, I'll be impressed if Segui gets one vote. If the Hall wants to make an example of someone not named McGwire, here he is.

Chipmaker's vote: No -- and this has nothing to do with Segui's PED usage. Simply not a Hall-class career.

Prediction: Segui's candidacy gets clobbered with a resounding zero votes.

23. Lee Smith (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 7.
Peak return: 45.0% (2006).
2009 return: 44.5%

Career: 18 seasons, 1980-97 -- *Chicago Cubs 1980-87, Boston Red Sox 1988-90, St. Louis Cardinals 1990-93, New York Yankees 1993, Baltimore Orioles 1994, California Angels 1995-96, Cincinnati Reds 1996, Montréal Expos 1997.
Peak season: 1991 -- 6-3, 47 saves, 2.34, 67 K, 157 ERA+, 1.137 WHIP.
Other outstanding seasons: 1982, 1983, 1987, 1988, 1990, 1994.
Primary position: right-handed relief pitcher, primarily as a closer.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections, three Rolaids Relief Awards (two NL, one AL), led NL in saves three times and AL once. Held the career record for saves from 1993, when he passed Reardon, to 2006, when Hoffman caught up. Currently third in career saves.

I've been looking at Smith more closely than any other returning candidate, comparing him to HOF RPs Eckersley, Sutter, Gossage, Fingers -- and I've changed my mind. I've fence-sat before, conservatively deciding to be opposed to Smith for the Hall, but he stands up very well compared to the Hall relievers, so I've jumped over that fence. Elect Lee Arthur!

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: Gets 50%, and should have enough ballots remaining to make it.

24. Alan Trammell (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 8.
Peak return: 18.2% (2008).
2009 return: 17.4%

Career: 20 seasons, 1977-96 -- *Detroit Tigers all the way.
Peak season: 1987 -- 109 runs, 205 hits, 34 doubles, 28 HR, 105 RBI, 21 stolen bases (against 2 caught steals), .343/.402/.551, 155 OPS+, 137 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1983, 1984, 1988, 1990, 1993.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Six All-Star selections, 1984 World Series MVP, four AL Gold Gloves for Shortstop, three AL Silver Sluggers for Shortstop. Member of the 1984 World Series champion Tigers.

Baseball bonus points: Tram was manager of the Tigers for three seasons, 2003-05. His teams were not impressive, at least not in good ways. The 2003 team was a complete disaster, so bad that not all responsibility can be laid upon Trammell's head. But this doesn't help his Hall candidacy at all.

Trammell's career annoys me. Half of his seasons were really good, the other half were below average, and they're all mixed together, no significant clustering. I cannot support a half-great player, not this time. I'll still think about him, but the easy choice here is "no".

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: Another hum-drum below-20 percent.

25. Robin Ventura (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 16 seasons, 1989-2004 -- *Chicago White Sox 1989-98, New York Mets 1999-2001, New York Yankees 2002-03, Los Angeles Dodgers 2003-04.
Peak season: 1999 -- 32 HR, 120 RBI, .301/.379/.529, 88 runs, 177 hits, 38 doubles, 74 walks, 129 OPS+, 118 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1991, 1992, 1995, 1996.
Primary position: third base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Two All-Star selections. Six Gold Gloves (five AL, one NL) at 3B. Won the 1988 Golden Spikes Award as the outstanding amateur player in the nation.

Ventura was a very good player but at his best was never great -- not as a professional anyway. His collegiate career was the stuff of legend, including a 58-game hitting streak, but the Hall looks to the majors, the highest level of competition, for its honorees.

Three things do stand out about Ventura's career, worth reviewing.

1. He was very proficient at hitting grand slams, with a career total of eighteen, tied for fourth all-time. This included tying the major league record by hitting two in one game (White Sox 14 - @Rangers 5, 04-September-1995) and later hitting two in a doubleheader, one in each game (20-May-1999).

2. His most famous grand slam, however, is one he hit but never completed. In Game 5 of the 1999 NLCS, with his Mets trailing in the series 3-1 -- on the cusp of elimination -- and trailing the game, 3-2, in the bottom of the 15th, Ventura came up with the bases loaded and clobbered it, for an apparent game-winning slam. However, the Mets mobbed him in celebration after he rounded first base, and Ventura abandoned his attempt to circle the bases. Two Mets scored to win the game, 4-3, but Ventura was credited with a single. Too bad, as it would have been the first walk-off grand slam in major league postseason history.

3. In 1993, Ventura was plunked in the ribs by Nolan Ryan, who was in the home stretch of his career. Ventura, a 25-year-old stud, charged the mound. Ryan, a venerable 46, put the finishing touch on his take-no-shit reputation by snaring Ventura in a headlock and dogie-punching him in the head six times. It was over quickly, tempers cooled, Ventura was ejected and the game played on. It was an unusual event even for baseball, and the image of the ancient Ranger taking the young kid to school, literally the school of hard knocks, was indelible. What the heck was Ventura thinking?

Good player. Not Hall measure.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: Grabs 10%, stays on the ballot for a few years. I'm probably aiming high.

26. Todd Zeile (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 16 seasons, 1989-2004 -- *St. Louis Cardinals 1989-95, Chicago Cubs 1995, Philadelphia Phillies 1996, Baltimore Orioles 1996, Los Angeles Dodgers 1997-98, Florida Marlins 1998, Texas Rangers 1998-99, New York Mets 2000-01 & 2004, Colorado Rockies 2002, New York Yankees 2003, Montreal Expos 2003.
Peak season: 1997 -- 31 HR, 90 RBI, .268/.365/.459, 89 runs, 154 hits, 85 walks, 121 OPS+, 96 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1991, 1999, 2000 -- but don't look for too much in 'em.
Primary position: third base. Started out as a catcher. Played some first base along the way.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Played for eleven different major league franchises, one short of the record. Most career home runs by any player whose family name starts with "Z", surpassing Gus Zernial (237) in 2003.

Wow. Zeile was around for a long time, and didn't win anything -- no major awards, no minor awards, no leading the league in anything , not even an All-Star selection. This surprised me. He was a pretty good player, and such guys usually get one trip to the July celebration along the way. Zeile did not.

He was a good hitter in the postseason -- .292/.362/.460 in 29 games, 127 plate appearances. And he was durable, playing in 140+ games ten times, plus all of the 1994 season. But he never rose to greatness. The Hall is short on third basemen, but Zeile isn't going to be the next one added to the rolls.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: The voters didn't like 3B Matt Williams last year, and he had more homers. They're not going to give Zeile any more ballot love. Less than 3%, and relegated.

Summary. I support nine players for Hall election -- Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, Martinez, McGriff, McGwire, Murphy, Raines, and Smith.

If I could vote for only one, it would go to Blyleven.

I expect only Dawson will be elected this time. If any ballot rookie is elected, it will be Alomar.

Ballot results will be announced Wednesday, January 6, 2010.

The Hall's 2010 Writers Ballot -- The Candidates (part 2 of 3)

2009-12-03T08:27:00.000-08:00

Continuing the review of the writers ballot candidates, #10-18.

The asterisk * by a team the candidate played for indicates which team I think will be on his plaque cap, should he be elected.

10. Eric Karros (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 14 seasons, 1991-2004 -- *Los Angeles Dodgers 1991-2002, Chicago Cubs 2003, Oakland Athletics 2004.
Peak season: 1995 -- 32 HR, 105 RBI, .298/.369/.535, 164 hits, 29 doubles, 145 OPS+, 107 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1998, 1999. There's not a lot here, fans.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 1992 NL Rookie Of The Year, one NL Silver Slugger for 1B.

Karros was the first of five consecutive Dodgers to win the NL ROY, followed by Mike Piazza, Raul Mondesi, Hideo Nomo, and Todd Hollandsworth. Winning a ROY is a very unreliable harbinger of future success -- for every Piazza or Jeff Bagwell, there's plenty of Marty Cordova or Pat Listach types. So, while ROY is a positive award to collect, sometimes the winner says more about the quality of the fresh talent in the league than the award says about the recipient.

Karros was a useful player, but he didn't hit enough -- good power, not nearly great, and wasn't much for getting on base, though he was better than, say, Dave Kingman was -- to be a star, certainly not at first base (maybe not even at second base). And he certainly wasn't a Hall-class player. Being named to the ballot is his career endpoint.

He did hit well in the postseason -- .300/.364/.560 in 15 games, 55 plate appearances, with four home runs.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: doesn't get the 5% needed to stay on the ballot. Probably won't get 2%.

11. Ray Lankford (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 14 seasons, 1990-2002 & 2004 -- *St. Louis Cardinals 1990-2001 & 2004, San Diego Padres 2001-02.
Peak season: 1998 -- 31 HR, 105 RBI, .293/.391/.540, 37 doubles, 26 stolen bases, 143 OPS+, 123 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 1997.
Primary position: center field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: One All-Star selection (one start), led NL in triples once.

Lankford was a good player, hit well enough for a center fielder, had some power, and could take a walk or swipe a base (though he got caught far too often in his younger days). But there's little in his career that stands up and proclaims greatness. Good-hitting center fielders aren't that hard to find; Lankford was not a rare class of player.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: Just scrapes past the 5% needed to stay on the ballot at least this once.

12. Barry Larkin (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 19 seasons, 1986-2004 -- *Cincinnati Reds the whole time.
Peak season: 1996 -- 33 HR, 89 RBI, .298/.410/.567, 117 runs, 32 doubles, 36 stolen bases, 154 OPS+, 124 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1989, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1997, 1998.
Primary position: shorstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Twelve All-Star selections (five starts), 1995 NL MVP, three NL Gold Gloves for shortstop (and probably should have won a few earlier, but Ozzie Smith had a hammerlock on it), nine NL Silver Sluggers for shortstop. Ranks in the Top Five in many Reds franchise hitting records, including second in hits and doubles (behind Pete Rose). Member of the 1990 World Series champion Reds.

It always look a little curious, how Larkin won the 1995 MVP with a good season, then had a much better one, and finished 12th in the 1996 voting, but these things happen.

Larkin was a brilliant shortstop, and filled a unique niche in history. The shortstops of the 1980s were Ozzie Smith, the defensive Wizard, and Cal Ripken, Jr., the slugging Iron Man. Larkin was the next great SS, and just as he was about to take the spotlight -- Ozzie retiring, Rip having taken the consecutive games streak record, the MVP in his pocket -- along came the Trinity of Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez, all young, all exciting, all at least Larkin's equal, and they stole the show.

So Larkin never got the overload of public acclaim he was due, which was too bad. Partly that was his fault, as it were -- he didn't do any one thing with consistent sparkle and flair, like Ozzie with the glove, but he did everything very well. The harshest flaw in Larkin's game was that he didn't have a curveball. This man belongs in the Hall, and I am fully in support of his candidacy.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: doesn't get in the door this time, but does collect a healthy 45%, and makes it by his fifth ballot. I hope I'm predicting low.

13. Edgar Martinez (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 18 seasons, 1987-2004 -- all with the *Seattle Mariners.
Peak season: 1995 -- 29 HR, 113 RBI, .356/.479/.628, 182 hits, 52 doubles, 121 runs, 185 OPS+, 161 RC, while playing the entire 145 game schedule.
Other outstanding seasons: 1990, 1991, 1992, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003.
Primary position: designated hitter; was a third baseman in his early seasons.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (four starts), five AL Silver Sluggers (one for 3B, four for DH), two AL batting championships, led the AL in OBP three times, runs scored once, doubles twice, RBI once, runs created once. MLB's award for the season's outstanding designated hitter is named in Martinez's honor, after he won it five times.

Edgar Martinez could hit. Really HIT. The Mariners didn't call him up until he was 24, and didn't keep him up until he was 27, so his career totals never reached some of the sparkly milestones which he surely would have passed. That doesn't make him a lesser hitter, because he was amazing. Every season, Gar was either the best hitter on the team, or right behind Griffey or Rodriguez -- yes, he more than held his own beside two men widely seen as inevitable future Hall Of Famers. In 1995, when Junior missed half the season, he kept the Mariners going, leading them to the franchise's first-ever postseason berth -- and it was Martinez who provided the signature moment against the Yankees in the ALDS, doubling in Griffey with the winning run in extra innings in Game 5. Yeah, Junior had the mile-wide smile at the bottom of the celebratory dogpile, but it was Martinez who brought him around.

In 1996, he was on a ferocious doubles pace -- 44 in 95 games -- when Piniella played him at third base, he collided with Marzano and got injured and missed a few weeks. And when he came back, he didn't have his power. I'm a hardliner on not giving credit for things not done, but I cannot help think about Martinez that season without the injury -- he projected to over 70 doubles, well past Webb's record, and if he had done it, his career would have one very shiny spangle to help boost his candidacy. And it's gonna be an uphill fight, because of The DH Thing.

I have no quibble with designated hitters, either the position as defined or the men who play it. It's been part of baseball for nearly 40 years; those who still think it somehow is wrong or is Not How The Game Should Be Played really need to get past their petty indignation. I take particular issue with anyone claiming that DHs play only half the game and therefore are unworthy of the Hall -- how do they approach AL starting pitchers, or any relief pitcher? Those are no different, from that point of view. I call hogwash. Martinez was a brilliant hitter, the Mariners decided that was his best destiny -- hey, better that than to let him play defense, especially if (a) there were better options and/or (b) he'd have been a liability with the glove. No, to me, he did the job that was asked of him, and he did so with greatness and beauty. It was a joy and a wonder to watch him bat.

Martinez could hit, he did hit a ton, and no one has ever done a better job of being a DH.
If the BBWAA is ever going to come to grips with the reality that is the designated hitter role, there is no better pioneer for opening the doors to the Hall as a DH than Edgar Martinez.

Chipmaker's vote: YES!

Prediction: 30%, as too many writers, including many who have never witnessed an AL game without the DH, hold to their unofficial pre-20th century precepts. I so hope I'm way wrong on this. The story of the 1990s Seattle Mariners' ascension to relevance is incomplete without Martinez in a starring role, and he's earned his plaque.

14. Don Mattingly (playing record| 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 9.
Peak return: 28.2% (2001).
2009 return: 11.9%

Career: 14 seasons, 1982-95 -- all with the *New York Yankees.
Peak season: 1986 -- 238 hits, 117 runs, 31 Hr, 113 RBI, 53 doubles, .352/.394/.573, 161 OPS+, 150 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1984, 1985, 1987.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections (one start), 1985 AL MVP, nine AL Gold Gloves at 1B, three AL Silver Sluggers at 1B, 1984 AL batting champion, 1986 AL slugging champion, led AL in hits twice, doubles three times, RBI once. Set the major league single season record for grand slams with six in 1987 (and never hit another in his entire career). Tied the ML record for consecutive games with a home run, with eight. Tied the ML record for most putouts in a game, with 22. Jersey #23 retired by the Yankees.

The thematic successor to Jim Rice, but without the climbing vote returns -- the greatness is there if one really wants to see it. Donnie Baseball had four great seasons, two other very good ones, and then he was pedestrian for the rest of his career.

Many Mattingly supporters will cite HOFer Kirby Puckett as a reason to promote Donnie. I understand why -- their career stats are similar. There are three significant reasons why the comparison is not valid, or at least isn't going to get Mattingly in:

1. Puckett was a center fielder, whereas Mattingly was a first baseman. CFs who could hit like Puck are rare across baseball history; 1B who could hit as well as, or better than, Mattingly (on a career basis, where this comparison always plays) are not so rare. Position does matter, a lot.

2. Puckett's value was evenly spread out over his entire career, whereas most of Mattingly's value was crammed into four seasons. I look to seasonal value before I look to career value, because great seasons help a player's team toward the postseason, which is the annual goal of the season. Puckett did more in more years than Mattingly did.

3. Puckett wasn't that good of a choice for the Hall anyway.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: Just another mid-teens return, futzing about until his 15 years run out.

15. Fred McGriff (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 19 seasons, 1986-2004 -- Toronto Blue Jays 1986-90, San Diego Padres 1991-93, *Atlanta Braves 1993-97, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 1998-2001 & 2004, Chicago Cubs 2001-02, Los Angeles Dodgers 2003.
Peak season: 1992 -- 35 HR, 104 RBI, 30 doubles, 96 walks, .286/.394/.556, 166 OPS+, 116 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1999, 2001.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Five All-Star selections (three starts), three Silver Sluggers (one AL, two NL) for 1B, led both leagues in HR once each. 1994 All-Star MVP. Carries the curious distinction of having the only baseball "Bermanism" -- silly, punnish nicknames bestowed by ESPN's Chris Berman that typically have little to do with the player -- that has entered the widespread lexicon, "Crime Dog". Member of the 1995 World Series champion Braves.

Fred McGriff finished his career with 493 home runs, agonizingly close to 500, a milestone which many people consider to be a golden ticket to the Hall if reached. This is not the case, but it's the sort of simplistic causality that plays well to the masses, and it's easy to remember.

I have little doubt that, had the players not struck in 1994-95, McGriff would have hit those seven more homers, and his candidacy would be a lot more clear-cut (to the good) than it otherwise is today. However, I don't feel the least bit bad or sad for McGriff, because he was one of the players and supported the strike, and given how that mess eventually played out, missing out on #500 is a small sacrifice. His career would look better with 500 homers, but not really be any better. I don't care that he didn't reach 500, and I think many of the BBWAA voters will similarly look past such petty surface distinctions.

Crime Dog was a damn good hitter, the sort of slugger who personifies the stereotypical, even archetypal, first baseman. Good glove, big bat, plays a lot of games, does a lot of damage at the plate, doesn't muck up on defense very often, reliable. What's not to like? McGriff did his job, did it very well for a long time, often rising to greatness, and was a key part of the storied mid-1990s Braves. And he was an excellent postseason player, too -- .303/.385/.532 in 50 games, 218 plate appearances, with 10 HR.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: Brings home 40% this first time, moves up quickly, gets elected before his seventh ballot. He's Hall-worthy, but it'll take the writers a while before enough recognize this.

16. Mark McGwire (playing record| 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 3.
Peak return: 23.6% (2008).
2009 return: 21.9%

Career: 16 seasons, 1986-2001 -- *Oakland Athletics 1986-97, St. Louis Cardinals 1997-2001.
Peak season: 1998 -- 70 HR, 147 RBI, 130 runs, 162 walks, .299/.470/.752, 216 OPS+, 193 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, and 2000 even though he played only 89 games.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 12 All-Star selections (six starts), 1987 AL ROY, one AL Gold Glove at 1B, three Silver Sluggers (one AL, two NL) at 1B, led his league in OBP twice, SLG four times, home runs four times, RBI once, walks twice. Rookie record 49 HR. Record 70 HR in 1998, since surpassed once. Member of the 1989 World Series champion Athletics. Member of the 500 Home Runs Club (583 career).

After three ballots, it is obvious that the majority of the voters are holding their embargo against McGwire. Nothing before now has changed -- or has it? A few weeks ago, the Cardinals had to acknowledge -- the news leaked -- that McGwire has been hired to be the batting coach in 2010.

This was a surprise, as Mac apparently was content with his isolated, golfing life in southern California. Cards manager Tony LaRussa has long been one of his supporters, and must have decided that it was time to begin The Rehabilitation Of Mark McGwire. The media will of course clamor to have him speak at last -- in one-sided hopes of getting some sort of confession of whatever it is they think he did -- and, back in the public eye, he'll have to say something, however vague or evasive, eventually. He could continue playing his shell game, or he could press the detonator on the players' omerta and move on. No idea what will happen next -- but if he approaches it right, he could win lots of brownie points with the writers, and maybe even some Hall votes.

My vote doesn't count, but he's had it before and still has it this time.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: no meaningful change this time, though at least one voter has said he's turned positive this year. Another low-20s percentage return. It'll be more interesting next year after he's been a coach for a season, see if the tide is turning.

17. Jack Morris (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 10.
Peak return: 44.0% (2009).
2009 return: 44.0%

Career: 18 seasons, 1977-94 -- *Detroit Tigers 1977-90, Minnesota Twins 1991, Toronto Blue Jays 1992-93, Cleveland Indians 1994.
Peak season: 1986 -- 21-8, 15 CG, 6 ShO, 223 K, 3.27, 267 IP, 127 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1979, 1981, 1987, 1991, 1992.
Primary position: right-handed starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Five All-Star selections (three starts), 1991 World Series MVP, led AL in wins twice, strikeouts once, shutouts once. Pitched a no-hitter in 1984. Member of three World Series champion teams, the 1984 Tigers, the 1991 Twins, and the 1992 Blue Jays. A good postseason pitcher, going 7-4, 3.80 in 13 games, 92.1 IP, with one legendary night.

The greatness is there for those who are convinced they see it. I see a big helping of good and very good performances, but no, I don't see the greatness.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: cracks 50% at last, but his runway is getting very short (four more ballots after this year), so it could get tight at the end.

18. Dale Murphy (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 11.
Peak return: 23.2% (2000).
2009 return: 11.5%

Career: 18 seasons, 1976-93 -- *Atlanta Braves 1976-90, Philadelphia Phillies 1990-92, Colorado Rockies 1993.
Peak season: 1983 -- 36 HR, 121 RBI, 131 runs, 30 stolen bases, 90 walks, .302/.393/.540, 149 OPS+, 131 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987.
Primary position: center field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 1982 & 1983 NL MVPs, seven All-Star selections (five starts), five NL Gold Gloves for Outfield, four NL Silver Sluggers for Outfield, led NL in slugging twice, runs scored once, home runs twice, RBI twice. Jersey #3 retired by the Braves.

Great center fielders are a rare breed. Murf was a genuinely nice guy. Outside of his peak, he wasn't much to talk about, but his peak was excellent. I don't know why he doesn't get more ballot love. By now, however, it clearly isn't going to change, so I'm still behind his candidacy, but this makes me in a definite minority.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes.

Prediction: Another pokey 10-15% range return. sigh.

Part 3 soon.

The Hall's 2010 Writers Ballot -- The Candidates (part 1 of 3)

2009-12-01T14:32:00.000-08:00

The first nine of the 26 candidates on this year's Hall Of Fame ballot.

1. Roberto Alomar (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 17 seasons, 1988-2004 -- San Diego Padres 1988-90, *Toronto Blue Jays 1991-95, Baltimore Orioles 1996-98, Cleveland Indians 1999-2001, New York Mets 2002-03, Chicago White Sox 2003 & '04, Arizona Diamondbacks 2004.
Peak season: 1999 -- 24 HR (career high), 120 RBI (career high), .323/.422/.533, 182 hits, 138 runs (led AL), 139 OPS+, 139 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 2001.
Primary position: second baseman.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 12 All-Star selections (nine starts), ten AL Gold Gloves for 2B, four AL Silver Sluggers for 2B, MVP Awards for the 1992 ALCS and the 1998 All-Star Game. Member of 1992 & 1993 World Series champion Blue Jays and five other postseason teams. Led AL in runs scored in 1999.

Alomar, scion of a baseball family (father Sandy Sr. and brother Sandy Jr. both played; Robbie and Jr. were teammates in San Diego, Cleveland, and Chicago), was a brilliant fielder at a tough position, and along with Craig Biggio (Hall eligible 2013), was the premier player at second base for a generation. And he did a lot of good work with his bat, as well. Roberto was an excellent postseason performer, putting up slashes of .313/.381/.448 in 58 games, and he demolished the Athletics in 1992, including a game-tying home run in the ninth inning of Game 4 off Dennis Eckersley, a game which Toronto won in extras to take a 3-1 lead in the ALCS. Sure, that's just one moment, but it's a memorable moment, and those only help. Not that Alomar's candidacy needs help -- his career is golden and definitely Hall-worthy.

However, with one impassioned but bad decision, he probably won't get in this first try. Late in the 1996 season -- Baltimore at Toronto, 27-September -- Alomar was called out on strikes in the top of the first inning. Alomar argued the called strike three -- perfectly legitimate -- but the argument escalated, home plate umpire John Hirschbeck ejected Alomar, and then Alomar spit on Hirschbeck. Oops; you just don't do that sort of thing. Alomar served a short suspension the next season, he and Hirschbeck made amends, and apparently both of them consider it a long-buried event. But it's the sort of thing that will follow Alomar until his obituary is printed, and I suspect the writers, enough of them anyway, will use The Spitting Incident as reason enough to impose a one-year embargo on Alomar's Hall candidacy. He'll get in, but not this year. (shrug) Whaddya gonna do?

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: around 50%, and elected in 2011.

2. Kevin Appier (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 16 seasons, 1989-2004 -- *Kansas City Royals 1989-99 & 2003-04, Oakland Athletics 1999-2000, New York Mets 2001, Anaheim Angels 2002-03.
Peak season: 1993 -- 18-8, 2.56 (led AL), 5 complete games, 1 ShO, 238.2 IP, 186 K, 179 ERA+, 1.106 WHIP.
Other outstanding seasons: 1990, 1992, 1996, 1997.
Primary position: right-handed starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: One All-Star selection, led AL in ERA in 1993, member of the 2002 World Series champion Angels.

Appier was a workhorse, never pitching fewer than 185 innings (and usually well more) in a full season from 1990-2002 except once (1998) when he was injured. He delivered a lot of quality from the mound, even if most of it was in Kansas City, from where he got little attention from fans or the media. He wasn't the same after the injury, even though he finally got some postseason action -- Oakland in 2000 and the champion Angels in 2002, though he got knocked around pretty badly that October -- and the end came quickly. Appier put up a distinguished career, but not a great one.

Appier got votes for the Cy Young Award only once, in 1993, finishing third behind winner Jack McDowell and Randy Johnson. Appier received one first-place vote, which was cast by Phil Rogers, then with the Dallas Morning News, if I recall correctly. Appier was the internet/stathead choice that year -- McDowell certainly wasn't -- and I still slightly admire Rogers for casting that vote for Kevin, even if the stuff he writes today doesn't indicate that his thinking still runs along such lines.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: I hope he skirts past relegation -- geez, Harold Baines keeps hanging on -- but I think Appier will get some single-digit vote total and be done.

3. Harold Baines (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 3.
Peak return: 5.9% (2009).
2009 return: 5.9% (avoided relegation by six votes, a personal high).

Career: 22 seasons, 1980-2001 -- *Chicago White Sox 1980-89, '96-97, & 2000-01, Texas Rangers 1989-90, Oakland Athletics 1990-92, Baltimore Orioles 1993-95 & '97-2000, Cleveland Indians 1999.
Peak season: 1984 -- 29 HR (career high), 94 RBI, .304/.361/.541, 142 OPS+, 109 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1989, 1991, 1996.
Primary position: right field for seven seasons, then designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Six All-Star selections (one start), one Silver Slugger, led the AL in slugging average in 1984. Good postseason hitter (.324/.378/.510 in 31 G, 102 AB). Jersey #3 retired by the White Sox. His 1628 RBI currently grant Baines the title of "Most RBI Not In The Hall", at least until Rafael Palmeiro gets on the ballot and takes permanent ownership.

Nothing new to see here. Good hitter, not great. If a primary designated hitter is ever going to be elected, Edgar Martinez will be the first.

Chipmaker's vote: No, again.

Prediction: heck, let's see him hit that 5-6% range for the fourth time.

4. Bert Blyleven (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 12.
Peak return: 62.7% (2009).
2009 return: 62.7% (67 votes short of election).

Career: 22 seasons, 1970-90 & 1992 -- *Minnesota Twins 1970-76 & '85-88, Texas Rangers 1976-77, Pittsburgh Pirates 1978-80, Cleveland Indians 1981-85, California Angels 1989-90 & '92.
Peak season: 1973 -- 20-17, 2.52, 258 K, 158 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1974, 1977, 1984, 1989.
Primary position: right-handed starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Two All-Star selections, led AL in strikeouts once and shutouts three times. Fifth highest career strikeout total, third highest when he retired. 287 career wins (which, alas, is just short of 300). Member of two World Series champion teams, the 1979 Pirates and the 1987 Twins. An excellent postseason pitcher -- 5-1, 2.47 in 8 games, 6 starts, 47.1 IP, 36 K, 8 BB.

Extremely silly baseball bonus points: A longtime announcer for the Twins, Blyleven has a habit of circling fans on the telestrator, which has led to the enduring habit of Twins fans holding up "Circle Me, Bert" signs in hopes of being among the chosen. Yes, this is ridiculous, but it's the sort of thing baseball embraces. Shoot, fans still love dot races.

What? What does it take? What does it take to get this man's brilliant career highlighted enough to win election? He's got three ballots left. Please, BBWAA voters, let's not have to revisit Blyleven again for the 2011 ballot. Vote him in. Happy ending.

Chipmaker's vote: YES!

Prediction: jumps to 69%, prolonging the infuriation yet another year or two.

5. Ellis Burks (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 18 seasons, 1987-2004 -- *Boston Red Sox 1987-92 & 2004, Chicago White Sox 1993, Colorado Rockies 1994-98, San Francisco Giants 1998-2000, Cleveland Indians 2001-03.
Peak season: 1996 -- 40 HR, 128 RBI, .344/.408/.639, 211 hits, 142 runs (led NL), 45 doubles, 32 stolen bases, 149 OPS+, 158 RC. Sure, Coors Field was his home park, but this was still an excellent season.
Other outstanding seasons: 1988, 1994, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002.
Primary position: center field. Moved to right field late, and finally, designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Two All-Star selections, one AL Gold Glove for outfield, two Silver Slugger (one AL, one NL) for outfield, led NL in runs scored and slugging average in 1996.

The 1987 Red Sox had an amazing harvest off the farm -- Burks, Mike Greenwell, John Marzano, Todd Benzinger, and Sam Horn. The five of them got 1519 at-bats, over 27% of the team's season total. They all went on to have pretty good careers, Burks the best of the bunch. Realize that the 1987 Sox were not a good team, which was all the more disappointing coming off the brilliant 1986 almost-won-it-all season. The rookies were one of the few bright spots.

So I like Ellis Burks. He wasn't the next Willie Mays, he wasn't even the next Eric Davis, but he was an exciting player who had speed and hit with some power. And he kept that going well after he left Boston. But it wasn't enough to merit the Hall. In his five seasons in the hitting paradise that is Coors Field, he excelled in two and was just a bit above league average in the other three. He never played over 150 games after '96, even when DHing. Little injuries took away some of his potential, and this has happened to greater players. Really good career; not great.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: deserves better than relegation, but probably won't be back on the next ballot.

6. Andre Dawson (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 8.
Peak return: 67.0% (2009).
2008 return: 67.0% (44 votes short of election).

Career: 21 seasons, 1976-96 -- *Montréal Expos 1976-86, Chicago Cubs 1987-92, Boston Red Sox 1993-94, Florida Marlins 1995-96.
Peak season: 1981 -- 24 HR, 64 RBI, .302/.365/.553 in 103 games (the Expos played 108 games in the strike season), 157 OPS+, 83 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1983, 1987, 1988, 1990.
Primary position: center field early, right field later.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 1987 NL MVP, 1977 NL ROY, eight All-Star selections (seven starts, five at CF and two at RF), eight NL Gold Gloves for outfield, four NL Silver Sluggers for outfield, led NL in hits in 1983, home runs and RBI in 1987. Career 438 homers, 1591 RBI, 2774 hits. Jersey #10 retired by the Expos (which the successor Washington Nationals do not maintain).

No change here, so I'll use my standard line: Dawson would look good on a plaque, but the Hall is not suffering for his absence.

But his election is inevitable. His returns have been creeping up, now just a few points short, and he's got enough runway left (six more ballots after this one) that it's just a matter of time. We won't have any final ballot, Jim Rice-style melodrama with Dawson. Congratulations if (when) he makes it, no tears if he doesn't.

Chipmaker's vote: No. I'm not alone, but I am in the minority.

Prediction: elected with 76%.

7. Andres Galarraga (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 19 seasons, 1985-98 & 2000-04 -- Montreal Expos 1985-91 & 2002, St. Louis Cardinals 1992, *Colorado Rockies 1993-97, Atlanta Braves 1998 & 2000, Texas Rangers 2001, San Francisco Giants 2001 & 2003, Anaheim Angels 2004.
Peak season: 1998 -- 44 HR, 121 RBI, .305/.397/.595, 63 walks (career high), 157 OPS+, 134 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1988, 1993, 1996, 1997. His 2000 was pretty good too, especially the first half, as he came back from cancer therapy.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Five All-Star selections (one start), two NL Gold Gloves for 1B, two NL Silver Sluggers for 1B, 1993 NL batting champion, led NL in hits and doubles in 1989, HR in 1996, RBI in 1996 & '97. Known as the "Big Cat". Two-time winner of The Sporting News' Comeback Player Of The Year Award (1993 & 2000).

Galarraga was never a great player, but he put up some nearly-great seasons, even allowing that his home park was Coors Field for the best of them. Injuries and illnesses kept him off the field a good bit, particularly after age 29, though he did have three seasons of 150+ games in his late 30s. His physical woes bottomed out when he was diagnosed with Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, and missed the entire 1999 season. His comeback the following year was inspiring and he still had some playing left in him, but missing a season doesn't make him a better player, just a better story. First basemen have to hit a ton, and Galarraga was always a few hundred pounds short.

The Sporting News discontinued its Comeback Player Award after the 2006 season, and Galarraga was one of only three players to win it twice, along with Bret Saberhagen and Rick Sutcliffe. While any positive honor is worth noting, a Comeback Player Award has always confounded me a bit. It's a backhanded way of saying that, last year, you were either injured a lot, or sucked, and glad to see that's over with. Winning it twice doesn't make it seem any better, since the recipient must have had two disastrous seasons.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: one and done, below 5%, relegated.

8. Pat Hentgen (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 14 seasons, 1991-2004 -- *Toronto Blue Jays 1991-99 & 2004, St. Louis Cardinals 2000, Baltimore Orioles 2001-03.
Peak season: 1996 -- 20-10, 3.22, 10 complete games, 3 ShO, 265.2 IP, 177 K, 155 ERA+, 1.250 WHIP.
Other outstanding seasons: 1994, 1997.
Primary position: right-handed starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Three All-Star selections, 1996 AL Cy Young Award, led AL in innings pitched, complete games, and shutouts in 1996 & 1997. Member of the 1992 and 1993 World Series champion Blue Jays (though he did not pitch in the '92 postseason).

Hentgen had one brilliant season and a few other strong ones, but was otherwise around league average, though he was typically good for 175 innings or more. He was injured soon after moving to Baltimore, lost most of two seasons, and when he came back he wasn't the same and didn't have much left. A very good pitcher for a stretch, but not Hall measure.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: less than 1% of the vote, relegated.

9. Mike Jackson (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 17 seasons, 1986-99, 2001-02, 2004 -- Philadelphia Phillies 1986-87, *Seattle Mariners 1988-91 & '96, San Francisco Giants 1992-94, Cincinnati Reds 1995, Cleveland Indians 1997-99, Houston Astros 2001, Minnesota Twins 2002, Chicago White Sox 2004.
Peak season: 1998 -- 1-1, 1.55, 40 saves, 64.0 IP, 55 K, 307 ERA+ (!), 0.875 WHIP (!).
Other outstanding seasons: 1988, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 2002.
Primary position: right-handed middle relief pitcher, occasional closer.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Led NL in games pitched in 1993. Member of six postseason teams, including the 1997 AL champion Indians.

Other than his Cleveland years and part of one season in Seattle, when he was a closer (and a darn good one), Jackson was a middle reliever. As such, he has no counting stat to show how good he was at it -- other stats, sure, but Hall voters generally don't dig deep before making their decisions, and Holds aren't official (Baseball Reference credits Jackson with 179, with no indication where that ranks him). Jackson pitched in 1005 games, ranking him 12th all-time and 8th when he retired, so that speaks well of him.

I cannot support Jackson's Hall candidacy, even though I sort of want to. I talked about this last year when Jesse Orosco was on the ballot, one of the best middle relief pitchers the game has ever seen. I had no delusions that Orosco should have been elected, but there hasn't yet been an ongoing, detailed dialogue on what makes, or might make, a middle reliever considered Hall class, and Orosco offered the perfect starting point. If he'd gotten just the 5% necessary to stay on the ballot, there was a chance that debate would have, haltingly, begun. Didn't happen -- he got one vote, and was gone. Jackson was about the same quality of pitcher as Orosco, over a shorter career, and generally less impressive -- Orosco had more of a legendary/iconic vibe to him, probably due to the longevity and games pitched record. Qualitatively, they're close. I'm still not sure what might make a middle reliever worthy of the Hall, but if it wasn't Orosco last year (in a decision received from on high, rather than reached through discussion, dammit), then it's not going to be Jackson this year, either.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: cast aside with fewer than five votes. Though, just maybe, and curiously by dint of his strong seasons as a closer, Jackson might get just enough love to stay on the ballot, and get that middle reliever discussion brewing. I doubt it, but hold out thin hope anyway.

Part 2 soon.

The Hall's 2010 Writers Ballot -- Introduction

2009-11-28T22:20:00.000-08:00

The Baseball Hall Of Fame has released its 2010 candidate ballot for voting by the eligible members of the Baseball Writers' Association Of America (BBWAA).

I'll be doing complete candidate reviews in the coming days, probably in three parts, as there are 26 names on the ballot.

The candidates:

Returning from the 2009 ballot (11): Harold Baines, Bert Blyleven, Andre Dawson, Don Mattingly, Mark McGwire, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Tim Raines, Lee Smith, Alan Trammell.

Rookie candidates (15): Roberto Alomar, Kevin Appier, Ellis Burks, Andres Galarraga, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Eric Karros, Ray Lankford, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, Robin Ventura, Todd Zeile.

Congratulations for making the ballot, men. That's a distinction all on its own. Let's see which of you truly measure up to the level of the Hall.

Captured by Google

2009-11-14T17:09:00.000-08:00

Earlier this year -- and I think I mentioned it on Facebook, but cannot find the item any longer -- I was driving home with the kids and noticed, passing us, a car with a curious feature. It looked to be a multidirectional camera mounted atop the roof. If there were any markings on the car, I did not notice. I wondered, perhaps, if this was a Google car, capturing new street-level images?

It turns out that, yes, my guess was correct. Here's my 1998 Civic, distinguishable by the half-extended antenna with the minor bend:

My car on Google street view.

Livin' the digital life.

The Hall's 2010 VC Executives (& Pioneers) Ballot

2009-11-11T19:52:00.000-08:00

The Baseball Hall Of Fame has released the ballots for consideration by various parts of the Veterans Committee for 2010 induction.

Of the ten candidates on the 2008 Executives ballot (voted in December 2007), three were elected. Six of the other seven return for re-consideration on this cycle, and one candidate returns from an earlier non-player voting cycle. With only three new faces, reviewing the candidates should go quickly.

Candidates who have been considered previously by any version of the Veterans Committee since 2003 -- when VC voting results were first released (prior editions of the VC simply announced the names of electees) -- have their prior voting returns noted.

The "Connections" category indicates where the candidate has a direct, past working relationship with one or more voters (this does not apply to all candidates). The Executives (& Umpires) committee has 12 electors; the Hall considers them demographically to be two Hall players, three writers, and seven past or present executives. While players and field managers might develop close relationships, executives tend to be at a further remove from the men in uniform, but the people in the front offices run into each other all the time. So, while several voters might know any candidate professionally, I tried to find instances where there may have been closer quarters between any voter and candidate. I think this adds perspective to how the voters might approach the candidates, if they really liked (or despised) someone they know personally from being on the same team. The 2010 committee voters are: HOFers Robin Roberts and Tom Seaver, executives John Harrington, Jerry Bell, Bill DeWitt, Bill Giles, David Glass, Andy MacPhail, and John Schuerholz, and writers Rick Hummell, Hal McCoy, and Phil Pepe.

Voting results will be announced on December 7.

Here are the ten candidates on the Executives (& Pioneers) ballot, in the traditional alphabetical order. (I cannot find or recall any reference to this ballot being called the Executives & Pioneers ballot during the 2008 voting cycle, though it is so named now, which seems silly and pointless as there are no Pioneer candidates included. Perhaps, however, this will finally open a doorway for some as-yet-unrecognized worthy people, including Dr. Frank Jobe, developer and continuing master of the ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction technique, better known for its first test subject -- Tommy John surgery. Jobe's impact with this procedure has been monumental, and recognition by the Hall would be a good idea.)

1. Gene Autry (Wiki bio)

Personal status: deceased.

Veterans Committee rookie candidate.

Claims to fame: founding owner of the Los Angeles/California Angels, from 1960 (the team first took the field in 1961) until his death in 1998. The Angels have retired jersey #26 in honor of Autry, as the "26th man" on the team.

Autry was a generous man with his baseball team, but the Angels just plugged along, never seeming to have a coherent strategy for winning a championship. Expansion teams are tough to mold into winning form, particularly in the pre-free agency days, and it took the Angels 19 seasons to finally make it to October. And, worse, in three postseason appearances (1979, '82, '86), the Angels never once advanced to the World Series, though they did bring home a trophy (2002) after he passed on.

Autry was also well-known as The Singing Cowboy, a star of radio and screen, who gave us hit songs like "Back In The Saddle Again" and, his biggest seller, "Rudolph The Red-Nosed Reindeer", still popular to this day. Autry certainly had fame in his lifetime, but had the Angels owner been, oh, real estate magnate Joe Jones or captain of industry Sam Smith, and sent the Angels along the same, largely aimless path, neither Jones nor Smith would be on this ballot. I'm sure Autry was a nice man and is still missed, but his baseball career was not really what the Hall looks for.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

2. Sam Breadon (Wiki bio)

Personal status: deceased.

Veterans Committee rookie candidate.

Claims to fame: owner of the St. Louis Cardinals, 1920-47.

Under Breadon's flag, the Cardinals rose to power, developing the farm system, bringing home six World Series championships (1926, 1931, 1934, 1942, 1944, 1946) and three other National League pennants (1928, 1930, 1943). But the best thing Breadon did during his tenure was keep Branch Rickey on staff and let him do as he would -- Rickey gets the credit for the farm system, player acquisitions, just about everything. Breadon was one of the best types of owners -- he usually got out of the way of the smart baseball people he employed -- but that doesn't raise him up to Hall class.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

3. John Fetzer (Wiki bio)

Personal status: deceased.

Reviewed on 2008 ballot.

2008 VC ballot: 33.3% (4 of 12 votes).

Claims to fame: owner of the Detroit Tigers (minority 1956-60, controlling 1961-83), including the 1968 World Series champion team. Used his expertise in radio and television broadcasting to negotiate national contracts for MLB.

Fetzer was a good-guy owner, but with the emergence of the players union under Marvin Miller during this time, it wasn't a good era to be an owner. Fetzer put some good teams on the diamond but his baseball career lacks anything proclaiming him as having been Hall measure.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

4. Bob Howsam (Wiki bio)

Personal status: deceased.

Reviewed on 2008 ballot.

2008 VC ballot: 25.0% (3 of 12 votes).

Connections: traded for Seaver (1977).

Claims to fame: general manager of the St. Louis Cardinals (1964-66) and the Cincinnati Reds (1967-78 -- the Big Red Machine era -- and 1983-84). Got his start running the minor league Denver Bears from 1947-62. Co-founded the Continental League in 1959, which inspired MLB to undergo expansion in the 1960s.

Howsam added the final parts to the Big Red Machine (World Series championships in 1975-76, NL pennants in 1970 & '72, NL West champions in 1973; NL MVP Awards by Bench '70 & '72, Rose '73, Morgan '75-76, Foster '77), one of the great dynasty teams of modern times. Got out of the general managing business just as free agency was beginning to influence how front offices do their jobs. A long and good career, but no greatness or clever innovation such as the Hall seeks to honor.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

5. Ewing Kauffman (Wiki bio)

Personal status: deceased.

Reviewed on 2008 ballot.

2008 VC ballot: 41.7% (5 of 12 votes).

Connections: employed John Schuerholz as the Royals GM for ten years, 1981-90.

Claims to fame: founding owner of the Kansas City Royals until his death, 1969-93, including the 1985 World Series champion team. Hired and encouraged unconventional thinkers, trying to find innovative ways to approach baseball and build winning teams consistently; one initiative was the Royals' baseball academies in other countries. Got a new ballpark built for his team, and on his deathbed, acquiesced to have it renamed after him (he didn't want that, but his wife reminded him that it wasn't just a building, but one with a baseball diamond inside). The Royals continue to play in Kauffman Stadium today.

A pharmaceuticals billionaire and a generous philanthropist, Kauffman was a genuinely good man. He returned baseball to Kansas City after the Athletics left in 1967, not because he loved the game, but because he loved his city. He was more than a good team owner; he was a good man. Kauffman's dedication to his city and committment to great baseball sets him above others. (Comparing the Royals' results since Kauffman's death puts the contrast between Good Owner and Bad Owner into sharp relief.) Ewing Kauffman is almost too good for the Hall -- but it's the highest honor baseball can give him.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes.

6. John McHale (Wiki bio / playing record)

Personal status: deceased.

Reviewed on 2008 ballot.

2008 VC ballot: ≤16.7% (<3 of 12 votes).

Claims to fame: McHale was general manager of the Detroit Tigers (1957-58), Milwaukee/Atlanta Braves (1959-66), and Montréal Expos (1978-84), as well as the first president of the Expos (1969-86)

Baseball bonus points: McHale was a player for five seasons (1943-45, '47-48) for the Detroit Tigers. At first baseman when he played the field, he was primarily a spare part on the bench. A member of the 1945 World Series champion team.

McHale was a baseball lifer, always in a front office. His Braves tenure came just after the team had peaked and Milwaukee was starting to lose interest; they moved on to Atlanta, rendering McHale's efforts discouraging. Canada was more fertile, and McHale built the only Expos postseason team (1981). The Hall looks for more than good work, however, and McHale's career didn't reach greatness.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

7. Marvin Miller (Wiki bio)

Personal status: living, will turn 93 in April 2010, and apparently in good health. Certainly still opinionated.

Reviewed on 2008 ballot.

2003 VC ballot: 44.3% (35 of 79 votes).
2007 VC ballot: 63.0% (51 of 81 votes).
2008 VC ballot: 25.0% (3 of 12 votes).

Connections: Roberts was one of the players who hired Miller. Nearly all of Seaver's career overlapped Miller's time at the Major League Baseball Players Association. As owner of the Phillies starting in 1981, Bill Giles certainly got to know of Miller and what he did and could do.

Claims to fame: Miller was the executive director of the Major League Baseball Players Association, typically called the players union, from 1966-84. I have written, and written, and written, and written, and written more in support of Marvin Miller for the Hall, so I'll just sum up.

Marvin Miller brought baseball labor relations into the 20th century, made conditions much better for all players, and most importantly, broke the reserve clause and opened the door for free agency. Miller's work has had profound and enduring impact on the game, and mostly in good ways.

Marvin Miller made baseball better, which only a handful of others across the reach of the game's history could stand beside with equivalent degree. That is exactly the sort of contribution to the game of baseball that the Hall should seek to honor.

Marvin Miller is The Most Worthy Person Not In The Hall.

But again this will not matter. Miller's candidacy will stand before another electorate, a committee of twelve, which has a majority of owners or their representatives. They know the impact and historic import Miller owns, but he earned undying enmity for his works. To these people, Miller is the adversary -- and the Hall powers-that-be must know this, and simply do not care. Miller deserves the plaque, but his candidacy before this electorate is farce, folly, and futility.

Miller even requested that the Hall not consider him further. The Hall ineffably ignored this, and stood him again.

I give up. Hey, why not? Miller already has. He knows a snow job when he sees one.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! Vote him in, you petty, meretricious bastards.

8. Gabe Paul (Wiki bio)

Personal status: deceased.

Reviewed on 2008 ballot.

2003 VC ballot: 16.5% (13 of 79 votes).
2007 VC ballot: 12.3% (10 of 81 votes).
2008 VC ballot: ≤16.7% (<3 of 12 votes).

Claims to fame: Paul was general manager of the Cincinnati Reds (1951-60), Houston Colt .45s (1961, before the team took the field), and Cleveland Indians (1961-72). He moved to the New York Yankees as president and general manager (1973-77), rebuilding the game's most storied franchise back to championship level, winning the 1977 World Series. Paul was again GM for the Indians (1978-84) before retiring.

Paul was a baseball lifer who contributed to interesting developments in the game over the decades, the 1969 divisional realignment included, but a long and good career off the field doesn't really measure up to Hall standards. Previous ballot returns agree with this view.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

9. "Colonel" Jacob Ruppert (Wiki bio)

Personal status: deceased.

Veterans Committee rookie candidate.

Claims to fame: Ruppert was owner of the New York Yankees until his death (1915-39), a tenure that included seven World Series championships (1923, 1927-28, 1932, 1936-38, and they won in 1939 after he died) and three other American League pennants (1921-22, 1926). Built and debuted Yankee Stadium (1923).

Typically I have little interest in owners, as their biggest influence tends to be paying the salaries and the bills. They should hire good baseball people and get out of their way -- but few really do, as they are hands-on folks. There's probably more owners in the Hall than there should be, and while I would like to see Kauffman added to the rolls, I cannot think of another owner in recent times that I would likewise support (possibly Steinbrenner or Henry; Selig is probably inevitable, due to his tenure as commissioner). Ruppert, though, didn't just put forth a winning team, he put forth a dynasty -- THE Dynasty, the Murderer's Row Yankees of Ruth and Gehrig and Lazzeri and, later, DiMaggio. And he paid for his own ballpark, which today would be almost quaint if not actively albeit discreetly discouraged by MLB's powers-that-be. If ever a team owner deserves election to the Hall, Ruppert is a darn good choice.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes.

10. Bill White (Wiki bio / playing record)

Personal status: living, will turn 76 in January 2010.

Reviewed on 2007 ballot.

2003 VC ballot: 27.8% (22 of 79 votes).
2007 VC ballot: 29.6% (24 of 81 votes).

Connections: as NL president, White certainly would have interacted with Phillies owner Bill Giles.

Claims to fame: President of the National League, 1989-94. Longtime broadcaster for the New York Yankees alongside Phil Rizzuto, 1971-89.

Baseball bonus points: White was a player for 13 seasons (1956, '58-69) for the New York/San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, and Philadelphia Phillies. A first baseman, White won seven Gold Gloves and was an All-Star selection eight times (three starts). A member of the 1964 World Series champion Cardinals.

Bill White is a nice guy, one of those "ambassadors for the game" we hear about now and then. He was president of the NL at a time when then-Acting Commissioner Selig was working on phasing out the position (as well as the AL presidency) and consolidating operations between both leagues (White was the second-to-last NL prez; the position was eliminated in 1999). And he was a good player, though well short of Hall-class. A bunch of roles in which he did well but never achieved greatness cannot sum up to overall greatness, and therefore falls short of Hall standard.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

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Summary of Chipmaker's Yes votes: Kauffman, Miller, and Ruppert.

If I could vote for only one: Miller.