Is Jackie Worthy?

With the impending 60th anniversary (Sunday, April 15) of Jackie Robinson's major league debut with the Brooklyn Dodgers, and MLB's concurrent celebration thereof, the question came up: would Jackie Robinson be in the Hall Of Fame if he were not the first black ballplayer?

Overlooking the historical inaccuracy in the question, the quick answer is Yes, absolutely. But let us take a long walk to get there, including some of the sidebar issues that arise.

Here's a look at Jackie, in the format I used for the Veterans Committee 2007 Hall ballot candidates a few weeks ago:

Playing career: 10 seasons; Brooklyn Dodgers (1947-56), plus one season with the Kansas City Monarchs of the Negro Leagues. Robinson spent three years, immediately preceding his professional baseball career, in military service during WWII; this is something that many players did, lose time to the war effort, but it surely took at least a few seasons off his career. No baseball credit earned for this, but he deserves a smart salute for his service.

Standout season(s): 1949 (.342/.432/.528, 16 HR, 12 triples, 124 RBI, 37 SB, 152 adjOPS).

Career stat highlight: .409 OBP (39th all-time, around 30th when he retired).

Major honors and statistical crowns: 1949 NL MVP, 1947 Major League ROY (inaugural award), six All-Star selections, batting average once, OBP once, stolen bases twice. Member of the 1955 World Series champion Dodgers and five other NL champion teams (1947, '49, '52-53, '56). Consistently in the Top Five or Top Ten of many of the good offensive categories. Jersey #42 retired by the Dodgers in 1972 and by all of Major League Baseball in 1997 (50th anniversary of his debut; other than special events like the upcoming 60th anniversary, the last remaining active player grandfathered to wear #42 is Mariano Rivera). The Rookie Of The Year Award is now named in his honor. There's a Jackie Robinson Parkway in Brooklyn. The Mets' new park, scheduled to open in 2009, will include a Jackie Robinson Rotunda at the main entrance. Generally recognized as the first black to play in the major leagues; that's not quite accurate -- the Walker brothers, Moses and Welday, predated him by decades -- but Jackie is the one who had the lasting, profound, and positive effect of destroying the color barrier. I realize that, eventually, it looks like MLB is laying it on with a trowel, so thick are the tributes and commemorations of Jackie Robinson, his career, and his impact, but he really does merit all of it.

Outside of baseball, Robinson was awarded (posthumously, unfortunately, but wherever he is now he probably appreciated them anyway) the Presidential Medal Of Freedom in 1984 and the Congressional Gold Medal in 2003.

Primary position: second base.

BBWAA Hall voting: won election to the Hall on his first ballot in 1962, with 77.50%.

Robinson was also the pre-eminent second baseman of his era. Here's the primary 2Bmen for all 16 major league teams in 1949, Jackie's MVP year (yeah, that makes it a bit easier on him, but I have a point to make after the data).

NL (MVP: Robinson):
Dodgers - Jackie Robinson: .342/.432/.528, 152 adjOPS, 133 runs created.
Braves - Eddie Stanky: .285/.417/.358, 114 adjOPS, 75 RC.
Cardinals - Red Schonedienst: .297/.351/.356, 86 adjOPS, 80 RC.
Cubs - Emil Verban: .289/.309/.327, 73 adjOPS, 34 RC.
Giants - Hank Thompson: .280/.377/.444, 119 adjOPS, 46 RC.
Phillies - Eddie Miller: .207/.294/.320, 67 adjOPS, 24 RC.
Pirates - Monty Basgall: .218/.291/.273, 50 adjOPS, 24 RC.
Reds - Jimmy Bloodworth: .261/.304/.385, 83 adjOPS, 53 RC.

AL (MVP: Ted Williams):
Athletics - Pete Suder: .267/.306/.416, 93 adjOPS, 56 RC.
Browns - Jerry Priddy: .290/.382/.414, 107 adjOPS, 86 RC.
Indians - Joe Gordon: .251/.355/.407, 103 adjOPS, 77 RC.
Red Sox - Bobby Doerr: .309/.393/.497, 128 adjOPS, 106 RC.
Senators - Al Kozar: .269/.321/.357, 81 adjOPS, 40 RC.
Tigers - Neil Berry: .237/.299/.271, 51 adjOPS, 26 RC.
White Sox - Cass Michaels: .308/.417/.421, 125 adjOPS, 98 RC.
Yankees - Jerry Coleman: .275/.367/.358, 92 adjOPS, 58 RC.

Here's the point: it's not even close. Among his second basemen peers (in this one season), only Doerr (also in the Hall) and Michaels are within shouting distance (and they were both in the other league). Robinson was easily the best second baseman in MLB, and he sustained that distinction for several more seasons. And it wasn't just his brilliant hitting; he was pretty much the best with the glove as well, leading the NL in double plays and fielding percentage several times. Jackie retired before the Gold Glove awards were established, but had there been such an award in his time he'd probably have picked up a couple for the home trophy case.

Jackie really was that good a player. Add in his immense social value, and it's no contest; he is eminently Hall worthy.

And now, some of the sidebars...

What about Jackie's years in the Negro Leagues?

Robinson only played one season in the Negro Leagues, with the 1945 Kansas City Monarchs. You can check here to see his recorded stats for that year. He was, no surprise really, devastatingly good; in addition to that .387 AVG, his SLG was .613, and we cannot know (from this limited data) what his exact OBP was but it was likely well above .400 for the season. Jackie only played in 47 games -- whether that was a function of the official league schedule or him not joining the team until later in the summer isn't clear -- and there's no precedent for simply adding his 1945 stats to his later MLB stats. That's not important anyway; it's but one season, it was (typically) excellent, and it certainly doesn't weaken his playing legacy.

Jackie played 1945 with the Monarchs and debuted with the Dodgers in 1947 -- what about his 1946 season?

Dodgers GM Branch Rickey broke in Robinson with his top minor league affiliate, the Montreal Royals of the International League, in 1946, partly on the basis that Canada wouldn't be so racially harsh on the man. Jackie won the league batting title with a .349 AVG (.462 SLG, approximately .461 OBP -- had 92 walks), led in runs scored with 113, and was second in stolen bases with 40. The Royals stormed the league, finishing with a 100-54 record for first place by +18.5 games, knocked off Newark (four games to two) in the first round of the playoffs, pushed aside Syracuse (4-1) for the league title, and then defeated the Louisville Colonels of the American Association, 4-2, for the Junior World Series championship. Jackie doesn't get all the credit for this spectacular season (scroll down for Royals player stats), but he was a huge (and league leading; always good) contributor. As history records, he didn't come back in 1947.

All of which is just that much more evidence that Jackie Robinson could play and do so exceptionally well. Jackie was 27 in 1946, and studies have shown this to be the most typical peak playing age.

In evaluating Robinson for the Hall, should his Negro League stats count? What about modern-day Japanese expatriate players? Is their situation comparable?

The Hall's mission statement (which is, I suppose, as close as we can get to an actual charter, at least on line), declares that it "...(honors) those who have made outstanding contributions to our National Pastime" -- and Robinson certainly did that, with a magnitude of impact equalled by few others -- and "(h)onoring, by enshrinement, those individuals who had exceptional careers, and recognizing others for their significant achievements" -- and no matter how we define "exceptional", Robinson nails this slightly different version as well.

Under the Rules For Election, one of the requirements for eligibility is "(p)layer must have played in each of ten (10) Major League championship seasons..." -- there's a couple of conditions this and the other requirements define, but one thing we can boil out is that a candidate must have played in a major league as considered by the Hall. In 2007, this includes only the two constituent leagues within the organization known as Major League Baseball; other, long-defunct leagues have also been recognized as holding "major league" status, such as the Federal League and several different leagues in the 19th century. Don't ask me how such distinctions are made; it's not really clear. But, what is clear is that the various leagues which operated under the general Negro Leagues banner (there were specific league names; Robinson's 1945 Monarchs were in the Negro American League), and the various leagues in Japan, have not been granted that recognition. The Hall, to its credit, has made earnest and welcome outreach efforts to recognize, elect, and induct the best players from the Negro Leagues, for the past several decades; but candidates considered specifically for their careers in the Negro Leagues (unlike short-timers like Robinson or Hank Aaron) have never appeared on the annual Baseball Writers of America Association ballot. The Hall's primary electoral college (the BBWAA) considers players from major leagues, and the various Negro Leagues have not been recognized as such, at least for the Hall's purposes. I do think this is a good thing for the purpose it serves, that primary Negro League players have not been conflated with MLB players on the ballot, as comparison and contrast between the two player pools would have been, not exactly difficult (challenging, certainly, but possible), but somewhat awkward. Primary Negro League players have been considered under separate committee formats, and while it's not the sort of system that pleases everyone, it has worked pretty well and honored some more than deserving individuals.

So, no, Robinson's stats from his one season with the Monarchs really shouldn't "count", and in his particular case it's such a small amount of data that it doesn't really change his candidacy (though it was a great year, and so if considered, would simply make him look better), but to be honest, I have no idea if the BBWAA electors either can, or want to, ignore such "non major league" data when it is available. The Negro Leagues folded in the early 1960s (and, in a way, Jackie helped bring about this demise), so there's not really any more candidates that the BBWAA could consider who have Negro League stats buried within the far reaches of their careers (Aaron was the last former Negro League player to retire from MLB). But what about future candidates from Japan or other parts of Asia/Pacifica where organized baseball is played? Park arrived in 1994, Nomo in 1995, and Suzuki became the first significant non-pitcher import in 2001; and some of these men, the Asian Invasion, bring along sterling professional careers in their homelands before hooking up with MLB teams. If and when any of them reach the Hall ballot, what weight will their pre-MLB careers carry? Strictly speaking, it should be no weight at all, but right now there's no telling what the voters might do, or if the Hall might expand its mission to encourage such consideration of international playing careers. (Note, I don't think Park or Nomo is Hall-worthy, even factoring in some pioneering value; I mention them as being the first of the invasion, and sufficiently recent that no one has yet arrived on the Hall's ballot screening committee's agenda. It'll be a few years still before any Asian import player stands as a viable future candidate. Ichiro certainly looks to be on the right path though, and it really wouldn't shock me if he plays long enough within MLB to seal the deal, maybe reach 3000 hits, his previous 1278 hits in Japan notwithstanding. His years with Orix simply won't matter. It's likely that some other player will have to be the acid test for offshore playing time factoring in, officially or not.)

(Tangential topic: the official name of the Hall is The National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. It's purview is baseball as played within the United States, hence "National". Yes, there is a team in Toronto and there was one in Montreal, but MLB and its franchises operate under governance of New York State law for league-wide matters. So Blue Jays players or former Expos players will have full consideration by the Hall in each man's due time. Even Vladimir Guerrero, the man with the Russian given name, the Latino surname, who played the American game in the French part of Canada, can earn a Hall plaque. And probably will, too.)

If Jackie is Hall-class, isn't Don Mattingly also?

In general I really despise the "if Player A, then Player B" type of argument for supporting Player B for the Hall (and when Player B is Pete Rose, it should be a hanging offense). It's a cheap method and tends to be applied to players whom are very much not similar, except that a few of their career totals match up. So let's destroy the notion that Mattingly can get in because Robinson did.

First, position matters. Robinson actually made his famous debut at first base, but played the bulk of his career at second, and played more at third than he did at first. The Hall recognizes him as a second baseman. Good-hitting 2Bmen are harder to find than good-hitting 1Bmen, so the general level of excellence with the bat is higher at first than at second when the Hall takes a look. Robinson was one of the best-hitting second basemen in major league history; among first basemen, Mattingly makes a rather faint showing. So, Robinson worthy, Mattingly not.

Second, era matters. Robinson's time, the 1950s, was a time of lesser offense (though not nearly as much as the 1960s were). Mattingly's 1980s were a low point between the 1970s and the 1990s, but there were a few more runs scored (comparing their MVP seasons: 1949 NL, 4.54 runs/game; 1985 AL, 4.56 runs/game. It's close enough to call it a wash for our purposes). Don had a few really great peak seasons, but then the back injury derailed him and, when the powerball 90s came along, he was league average and unimpressive. Jackie made his mark (six great seasons, offensively, out of ten). Mattingly had four great seasons and two very good ones (out of 14, though one was a cuppa coffee), but there's an obvious cliff in the middle of his career where he got injured and fell off. Robinson sustained his peak better.

Best full seasons by adjusted OPS:
Robinson: 154, 152, 150, 140, 139, 136.
Mattingly: 161, 156, 156, 146, 133, 128.

Best Runs Created per 27 outs:
Robinson: 8.51, 8.37, 7.90, 7.79, 7.33, 7.14.
Mattingly: 8.96, 8.01, 7.96, 7.87, 6.21, 6.10.

Getting those numbers from a second baseman is harder than getting them from a first baseman.

On a career basis (and not adjusting for era or anything else), Robinson edges Mattingly in slugging, .474 to .471, and utterly tramples him in on-base percentage, .409 to .358. That career OBP alone indicates that Robinson is a seriously good player -- currently it ranks 39th in history, and was around 30th when Jackie retired.

Would Jackie be in the Hall if he were a white man?

I think so, though it probably would have taken a few more ballots -- he was a genuinely great player, though his career was short.

It counts for nothing, but thinking "what if" -- as in, what if Jackie hadn't had to encounter the color barrier? -- would have given him only two more seasons, at most, in the major leagues. Prior to 1945, he was in the military, and I refuse to consider taking that away from him and postulating more seasons on the field. Two more seasons would have looked good, to be sure, but Robinson didn't and doesn't need them. Great player; Hall worthy. Then add in the impact he made on baseball (all for the better) and society in general, and his candidacy is overwhelming.

But, as a Hall honoree, he doesn't need that enormous bonus value, and it's worth noting that his Hall plaque doesn't mention it. And really, it doesn't have to. He earned that plaque, fairly, on the field. That MLB continues to honor him and celebrate his lasting impact on the game underscores his greater influence beyond his hitting and fielding. The Hall plaque honors his playing greatness. The continuing fanning of the Robinson flame, while somewhat smacking of marketing, is worthwhile, because his story is important enough to tell and re-tell, and keep in living memory.