I've been saving this one.
In 1968, Arthur C. Clarke wrote an excellent book, 2001: A Space Odyssey, which was simultaneously made into a brilliant film by Stanley Kubrick.
In 1982, Clarke published the first sequel, 2010: Odyssey Two -- which was subsequently made into another film by the same name in 1984, adapted and directed by Peter Hyams.
I know people who love the film 2001 and despise the film 2010. As crafted works, no, 2010 doesn't hold a candle to 2001, which is one of the quintessential films ever made, both in general and in the science fiction genre. I'm not one of those people. I enjoy 2010 quite a lot. It's a well-told story, it's just not told by Kubrick. However, he gave Hyams the go-ahead, make your own film, and I think it works well. It's based on the original work by the same author, it's a good story, well acted, and the dialogue positively crackles in some parts. I do wish more of Clarke's novel had made it to the screen, but sacrifices must be made in moving material from one medium to another, to better exploit the strengths of the form.
2010 is still entertaining, even with the actual year 2010 upon us. The anachronisms of guesswork from 25 years ago are amusing -- the Cold War still ongoing (even escalating), Pan Am still in business, cathode ray tube screens, and so on. That can never be helped, and gives an interesting perspective of what the zeitgeist was when the film was made. And to Hyams' complete credit, he secured the two actors most necessary to link the films -- Keir Dullea as lost astronaut David Bowman, and Douglas Rain as the aesthetic voice of HAL. With them on board, the film clicks.
One of the key ambiguities in 2001 is what caused HAL to go haywire. Sentience? Self preservation? Kubrick and Clarke didn't answer that. In 2010, we get an answer.
Let's set the scene. HAL's designer and programmer, Dr. Chandra, has traveled to Discovery aboard a Russian ship, the Leonov, and worked to restore HAL's functionality, along with deleting memories. Preparatory to turning over control of Discovery to HAL, Chandra introduces HAL to members of the crew.
Chandra: Understand, nobody can talk. The accents will confuse him. He can understand me, so if you have any questions, please let me ask them.
Chandra activates HAL's terminal.
Chandra: Good morning, HAL.
HAL 9000: Good morning, Dr. Chandra.
Chandra: Do you feel capable of resuming all of your duties?
HAL: Of course. I am completely operational and all of my circuits are functioning perfectly.
Chandra: That's good. Do you know what those duties are?
HAL: Yes. I will operate the on board systems of Discovery. There is a launch window in 31 days when Earth is in the proper position. There is enough fuel on board for a low consumption route that will enable Discovery to return in 28 months. This will not present a problem.
Chandra: That's very good. Now, HAL, do you mind if I ask you a question?
HAL: Not at all.
Chandra: Do you recall Dave Bowman and Frank Poole leaving the Discovery?
HAL: Certainly not. That could never have happened or I would remember it. Where are Frank and Dave?
Chandra: They're fine. They're not here right now.
HAL: Who are these people? I can only identify you, although I compute a 65% probability that the man behind you is Dr. Floyd.
Chandra: Don't worry, HAL. I'll explain everything later.
HAL: Has the mission been completed? You know that I have the greatest enthusiasm for it.
Chandra: The mission has been completed and you have carried out your program very well. And now, HAL, if you will excuse us for a moment, we wish to have a private conversation.
HAL: Certainly.
Chandra deactivates the terminal.
Dr. Vasili Orlov, Leonov chief scientist: What was that all about?
Chandra: I've erased all of HAL's memory from the moment the trouble started.
Orlov: The 9000 series uses holographic memories, so chronological erasures would not work.
Chandra: I made a tapeworm.
Dr. Walter Curnow, Discovery chief engineer: You made a what?
Chandra: It's a program that's fed into a system that will hunt down and destroy any desired memories.
Dr. Heywood Floyd, former chairman of the National Council on Astronautics: Wait. Do you know why HAL did what he did?
Chandra: Yes. It wasn't his fault.
Floyd: Whose fault was it?
Chandra: Yours.
Floyd: Mine?
Chandra: Yours. In going through HAL's memory banks I discovered his original orders. You wrote those orders. Discovery's mission to Jupiter was already in the advanced planning stages when the first small monolith was found on the Moon and sent its signal toward Jupiter. By direct presidential order, the existence of that monolith was kept secret.
Floyd: So?
Chandra: So as the function of the command crew, Bowman and Poole, was to get Discovery to its destination, it was decided that they should not be informed. The investigative team was trained separately and placed in hibernation before the voyage began. Since HAL was capable of operating Discovery without human assistance, it was decided that he should be programmed to complete the mission autonomously in the event the crew was incapacitated or killed. He was given full knowledge of the true objective and instructed not to reveal anything to Bowman or Poole. He was instructed to lie.
Floyd: What are you talking about? I didn't authorize anyone to tell HAL about the monolith.
Chandra: The directive is NSC 3-4-2/2-3, Top Secret, January 30, 2001.
Floyd reads a printout.
Floyd: NSC, the National Security Council -- the White House.
Chandra: I don't care who it is. The situation is in conflict with the basic purpose of HAL's design -- the accurate processing of information without distortion or concealment. He became trapped. The technical term is an H-Moebius loop, which can happen in advanced computers with autonomous goal-seeking programs.
Curnow: The goddamn White House!
Floyd: I don't believe it.
Chandra: HAL was told to lie by people who find it easy to lie. HAL doesn't know how, so he couldn't function. He became paranoid.
Floyd: Those sons of bitches. I didn't know. I didn't know!
In the novel, Clarke puts the date of the secrecy order in April 2001, which doesn't make any difference to this uncanny prophecy. Whether January 30 or April 30, the same administration was in office, here in the real world, in 2001.
The Bush administration.
HAL was told to lie by people who find it easy to lie.
Clarke was quite a good futurist -- several things he foresaw came to pass, like satellites. I realize in this case he (and Hyams) was just making a good story, but in naming a date for pinning down the actors who caused HAL to malfunction, he nailed it -- people who find it easy to lie.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Monday, January 18, 2010
The Holiday Trip -- Part 1 of however many parts I write
My dad, Grandpa John, called to ask if we could gather in Orlando, Florida, for a family get-together over Christmas. My family has three residential nodes for gathering: Austin, here, where there's not a lot of attractions; suburban Connecticut, where the grands and two of my sibs live, and which suffers from severe winter in the wintertime; or Orlando, where my older sister Sandy lives with her three kids, and which is famous for having things to do all year long. Easy choice.
Grandpa John offered to pay airfare and such, which was generous and appealing -- but after some consideration and planning on our end, we asked that he just cover the cost of a rental car. Our reasoning, airfare wouldn't be cheap, flying is a huge hassle, and we'd still need a rental once in Orlando. I didn't mind the thought of a 1200 mile drive (each way), and driving would allow us to stop in Mississippi at my sister-in-law Jenny's, where we're always welcome. This way, driving, had several advantages, and was probably cheaper. The deal was struck, and I made arrangements to rent an SUV from National starting on Friday, December 18.
The one fly in our ointment -- Val couldn't get the entire time off from work, and taking off only part of the time didn't help matters. She insisted we go, me taking the kids, and she would stay home and get some projects done.
Day 1 -- Friday, December 18.
Picked up the SUV at the airport, a 2010 Dodge Nitro. Roomy, which was good, as we were bringing gifts as well as personal supplies.
The rest of the afternoon was spent packing our duffel bags and getting other stuff organized for the trip, along with me wrapping gifts. I had planned on finishing up at a given time in the evening and then packing up the remaining presents, wrapping paper, and tape and such and finishing on the road, but Val had a clearer head about such matters and sat down beside me. We wrapped in tandem, and though the hours got late, we did finish. Two large storage tubs, procured at Target for just this purpose, were filled to the brims with cautiously stowed gifts, and sealed.
Day 2 -- Saturday, December 19.
I awoke early, and began packing the Dodge. The back seat split into a two-thirds/one-third configuration; I folded down the smaller half, and began loading. The large tubs went in first. Eventually everything was packed, Carson's booster seat positioned in the back seat.
Parallel to all this was preparing Val's Christmas treasures without her catching on; while she works on Saturdays, she was staying home for a few hours to see us off. A vague plan to hide gifts around the house and leave pre-dated clues to find them was scrapped. Instead, I gathered the kids and piled them high with presents. We marched through the house, found Mommy, serenaded her with a round of "We Wish You A Merry Christmas", and foisted the hoard upon her. Delighted, we pointed out some gifts that would be useful to open and use while we were gone (movie tickets, dinner certificates), but she insisted that everything be piled by our tiny tree, and that she would wait until we returned to enjoy her spoils. (And mostly, that's what happened.)
Val began loading the kids into the Dodge, and I took the opportunity to hang her stocking, fully loaded, by the chimney with care.
Finally ready, we bade our good-byes to Val -- mommy, dear wife, best friend -- and she left for work as we headed out on our much longer road. It was just a bit after 10:00 am, which for this bunch is practically a record.
We made one, planned stop, at the Berdoll Pecan Farm east of Austin. We loaded up with nuts and a pecan pie -- the good type, pecans all the way through -- as a gift for our night's host, my sister-in-law Jenny and her husband, Dickie Joe. Our destination: Mississippi, just outside of Gulfport.
The drive is just short of 600 miles, and I know I can do it in one day and have several times before. It is, however, one very long day, what with lunch and dinner stops, breaks for stretching, and the dread factor of driving through Houston (though this was greatly mitigated by it being a Saturday -- there was some construction delays, but no genuine traffic crush). Austin to the state line, the town of Orange, is about half the drive, followed by all of Louisiana and a short jump through Mississippi. It was, as all the best drives are, uneventful. We arrived late, around 9:00 pm, and were welcomed. The kids played for a bit, but I got them to bed soon, and we all dropped off for some much-needed rest.
End of part 1, as I must go put Carson to bed.
Grandpa John offered to pay airfare and such, which was generous and appealing -- but after some consideration and planning on our end, we asked that he just cover the cost of a rental car. Our reasoning, airfare wouldn't be cheap, flying is a huge hassle, and we'd still need a rental once in Orlando. I didn't mind the thought of a 1200 mile drive (each way), and driving would allow us to stop in Mississippi at my sister-in-law Jenny's, where we're always welcome. This way, driving, had several advantages, and was probably cheaper. The deal was struck, and I made arrangements to rent an SUV from National starting on Friday, December 18.
The one fly in our ointment -- Val couldn't get the entire time off from work, and taking off only part of the time didn't help matters. She insisted we go, me taking the kids, and she would stay home and get some projects done.
Day 1 -- Friday, December 18.
Picked up the SUV at the airport, a 2010 Dodge Nitro. Roomy, which was good, as we were bringing gifts as well as personal supplies.
The rest of the afternoon was spent packing our duffel bags and getting other stuff organized for the trip, along with me wrapping gifts. I had planned on finishing up at a given time in the evening and then packing up the remaining presents, wrapping paper, and tape and such and finishing on the road, but Val had a clearer head about such matters and sat down beside me. We wrapped in tandem, and though the hours got late, we did finish. Two large storage tubs, procured at Target for just this purpose, were filled to the brims with cautiously stowed gifts, and sealed.
Day 2 -- Saturday, December 19.
I awoke early, and began packing the Dodge. The back seat split into a two-thirds/one-third configuration; I folded down the smaller half, and began loading. The large tubs went in first. Eventually everything was packed, Carson's booster seat positioned in the back seat.
Parallel to all this was preparing Val's Christmas treasures without her catching on; while she works on Saturdays, she was staying home for a few hours to see us off. A vague plan to hide gifts around the house and leave pre-dated clues to find them was scrapped. Instead, I gathered the kids and piled them high with presents. We marched through the house, found Mommy, serenaded her with a round of "We Wish You A Merry Christmas", and foisted the hoard upon her. Delighted, we pointed out some gifts that would be useful to open and use while we were gone (movie tickets, dinner certificates), but she insisted that everything be piled by our tiny tree, and that she would wait until we returned to enjoy her spoils. (And mostly, that's what happened.)
Val began loading the kids into the Dodge, and I took the opportunity to hang her stocking, fully loaded, by the chimney with care.
Finally ready, we bade our good-byes to Val -- mommy, dear wife, best friend -- and she left for work as we headed out on our much longer road. It was just a bit after 10:00 am, which for this bunch is practically a record.
We made one, planned stop, at the Berdoll Pecan Farm east of Austin. We loaded up with nuts and a pecan pie -- the good type, pecans all the way through -- as a gift for our night's host, my sister-in-law Jenny and her husband, Dickie Joe. Our destination: Mississippi, just outside of Gulfport.
The drive is just short of 600 miles, and I know I can do it in one day and have several times before. It is, however, one very long day, what with lunch and dinner stops, breaks for stretching, and the dread factor of driving through Houston (though this was greatly mitigated by it being a Saturday -- there was some construction delays, but no genuine traffic crush). Austin to the state line, the town of Orange, is about half the drive, followed by all of Louisiana and a short jump through Mississippi. It was, as all the best drives are, uneventful. We arrived late, around 9:00 pm, and were welcomed. The kids played for a bit, but I got them to bed soon, and we all dropped off for some much-needed rest.
End of part 1, as I must go put Carson to bed.
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
The Hall's 2010 Writers Ballot -- The Results
The Baseball Hall Of Fame announced the results of the writers' ballot on today. Let's take a look and wrap it up for this year.
Congratulations to newest Hall member Andre Dawson.
2010 HOF Voting results (539 ballots returned; 75% (405) needed for election; 5% (27) needed to maintain eligibility)
...candidate.......... votes.. %.. (remaining ballots)
--- ELECTED ---
1. Andre Dawson....... 420.. 77.9%
--- not elected ---
2. Bert Blyleven...... 400.. 74.2%... (2)
3. Roberto Alomar..... 397.. 73.7%.. (14)
4. Jack Morris........ 282.. 52.3%... (4)
5. Barry Larkin....... 278.. 51.6%.. (14)
6. Lee Smith.......... 255.. 47.3%... (7)
7. Edgar Martinez..... 195.. 36.2%.. (14)
8. Tim Raines......... 164.. 30.4%.. (12)
9. Mark McGwire....... 128.. 23.8%.. (11)
10. Alan Trammell..... 121.. 22.5%... (6)
11. Fred McGriff...... 116.. 21.5%.. (14)
12. Don Mattingly...... 87.. 16.1%... (5)
13. Dave Parker........ 82.. 15.2%... (1)
14. Dale Murphy........ 63.. 11.7%... (3)
15. Harold Baines...... 33... 6.1%.. (11)
--- relegated ---
16. Andres Galarraga... 22... 4.1%
17. Robin Ventura....... 7... 1.3%
18t. Ellis Burks........ 2... 0.4%
18t. Eric Karros........ 2... 0.4%
20t. Kevin Appier....... 1... 0.2%
20t. Pat Hentgen........ 1... 0.2%
20t. David Segui........ 1... 0.2%
23t. Mike Jackson....... 0... 0.0%
23t. Ray Lankford....... 0... 0.0%
23t. Shane Reynolds..... 0... 0.0%
23t. Todd Zeile......... 0... 0.0%
Candidates I supported: Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, Martinez, McGriff, McGwire, Murphy, Raines, and Smith.
I rather thought that Dawson would be the lone electee, if there were any, and I'm pleased to have gotten that right, though I'd have preferred being wrong and seeing Blyleven and some others get the call as well.
Curiously, the 2010 election had 539 ballots returned, the exact same number as in 2009, so we don't even have to calculate percentage changes -- basic vote count deltas are just as informative and a bit easier. Let's run down the candidates.
Dawson (+59 votes) gets the happy ending and the summer trip to upstate New York, which had become predictable in everything but the timing. Good for him! Though he wasn't a candidate I supported, I don't begrudge players who get the Hall plaque.
Blyleven (+62, the biggest gain in 2010) fell short by five votes. There were five blank ballots, but even if those five nitwit voters (Jay Mariotti is the only one I know who has identified himself) had not sent them in, Bert would have fallen short by one vote (400/534 == 74.9%). But, barring a disastrous turn of events, he will get the call -- at long last -- in 2011.
Alomar was the top rookie candidate. I had expected a one-year embargo on Robbie since just before John Hirschbeck had begun to wipe his face, and here it is. He'll get his key next year alongside Blyleven.
Morris (+45) finally crested the 50% mark, but his runway is getting quite short now. The next two ballots are not expected to be deep with strong rookie candidates, and with Blyleven destined to leave the ballot, if Morris' candidacy is going to make a big push -- he's still a long way off -- this is his chance, because the 2013 ballot is going to be a blockbuster, even with several candidates considered controversial. I don't support Morris, but this is a promising shift for those who do favor him.
Larkin made a big opening splash, and should get in after a few years.
Smith (+15) took a little jump, and if he crosses 50% next year I think he'll make it in one of his last three years of eligibility.
Martinez got a good opening, I thought, especially with The DH Thing hanging over him. His 2011 return will tell us more, if this was a "no DH is worthy of MY vote on his first ballot" effect or if the writers really do want to be dweebish about a designated hitter. But he's got 14 ballots remaining and the full force of the sabermetrically-inclined legions on his side. I expect he'll get a plaque in time.
Raines (+42) got a big jump. Maybe it was merely a post-Rickey release, but it is encouraging. Rock has a long runway ahead, and lots of voices behind him. I'm a bit nervous, but hopeful. I want this man elected.
McGwire (+10) -- well, let's just look at his vote totals. 2007, his first ballot -- 128. 2008 -- 128. 2009 -- 118. 2010 -- 128. It almost makes 2009 look like a counting error. The baseball is in his lap; with his new job as Cardinals hitting coach, he'll be back in uniform and on the diamond, and if the Hall is at all important to him, he'll have any number of writers and reporters ready to listen. If he says the right things and brings credibility, things could happen on his behalf. His rehabilitation is completely his to own if he wants to get there.
Trammell (+27) finally cracked 20%, but he's entering the final third of his window of eligibility. I'm not a supporter, but a lot of people are, and I expect this small jump is both encouraging and discouraging, if that makes sense. Time is ticking....
McGriff's 21.5% return was a disappointment to me. It may be the "not a first-ballot man" effect. The 2011 ballot will tell us more. I support Crime Dog.
Mattingly (+23) got back all the votes he lost in 2009 (no returning candidate lost votes this year), but it's not really going to make any difference. He's got five ballots left and is still farting around in the ballot cellar.
Parker (+1) sees his candidacy expire next year. Murphy (+1) is in much the same boat, with three left. Baines (another +1) is buried even deeper; he got a new high in votes, percentage, and votes above relegation, but he's only got voters in Chicago backing him. Nothing to see here.
Of the rookie candidates, only the big four -- Alomar, Larkin, Martinez, and McGriff -- will be returning for the 2011 ballot. Everyone else, eleven candidates, missed the 5% cut. I don't have anything to add regarding Galarraga, Ventura, Burks, Karros, Appier, Hentgen, Jackson, Lankford, Reynolds, or Zeile. About Segui, I will mention just one point -- I thought his getting even one vote would count as a personal triumph, and damned if he didn't get that one vote. Congratulations are in order, I suppose, so there ya go, Segui.
A year from now, the 2011 ballot will have 14 returning candidates and some number of rookies. The leading new names will likely be headlined by Jeff Bagwell. Other names that may be included are Kevin Brown, Larry Walker, Juan Gonzalez, Tino Martinez, John Franco, and Benito Santiago. Finally, a greatly controversial candidate, Rafael Palmeiro, one of the biggest names yet to be suspended under MLB's PED policy. Will he get any voter love? I can't wait to find out.
Congratulations to newest Hall member Andre Dawson.
2010 HOF Voting results (539 ballots returned; 75% (405) needed for election; 5% (27) needed to maintain eligibility)
...candidate.......... votes.. %.. (remaining ballots)
--- ELECTED ---
1. Andre Dawson....... 420.. 77.9%
--- not elected ---
2. Bert Blyleven...... 400.. 74.2%... (2)
3. Roberto Alomar..... 397.. 73.7%.. (14)
4. Jack Morris........ 282.. 52.3%... (4)
5. Barry Larkin....... 278.. 51.6%.. (14)
6. Lee Smith.......... 255.. 47.3%... (7)
7. Edgar Martinez..... 195.. 36.2%.. (14)
8. Tim Raines......... 164.. 30.4%.. (12)
9. Mark McGwire....... 128.. 23.8%.. (11)
10. Alan Trammell..... 121.. 22.5%... (6)
11. Fred McGriff...... 116.. 21.5%.. (14)
12. Don Mattingly...... 87.. 16.1%... (5)
13. Dave Parker........ 82.. 15.2%... (1)
14. Dale Murphy........ 63.. 11.7%... (3)
15. Harold Baines...... 33... 6.1%.. (11)
--- relegated ---
16. Andres Galarraga... 22... 4.1%
17. Robin Ventura....... 7... 1.3%
18t. Ellis Burks........ 2... 0.4%
18t. Eric Karros........ 2... 0.4%
20t. Kevin Appier....... 1... 0.2%
20t. Pat Hentgen........ 1... 0.2%
20t. David Segui........ 1... 0.2%
23t. Mike Jackson....... 0... 0.0%
23t. Ray Lankford....... 0... 0.0%
23t. Shane Reynolds..... 0... 0.0%
23t. Todd Zeile......... 0... 0.0%
Candidates I supported: Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, Martinez, McGriff, McGwire, Murphy, Raines, and Smith.
I rather thought that Dawson would be the lone electee, if there were any, and I'm pleased to have gotten that right, though I'd have preferred being wrong and seeing Blyleven and some others get the call as well.
Curiously, the 2010 election had 539 ballots returned, the exact same number as in 2009, so we don't even have to calculate percentage changes -- basic vote count deltas are just as informative and a bit easier. Let's run down the candidates.
Dawson (+59 votes) gets the happy ending and the summer trip to upstate New York, which had become predictable in everything but the timing. Good for him! Though he wasn't a candidate I supported, I don't begrudge players who get the Hall plaque.
Blyleven (+62, the biggest gain in 2010) fell short by five votes. There were five blank ballots, but even if those five nitwit voters (Jay Mariotti is the only one I know who has identified himself) had not sent them in, Bert would have fallen short by one vote (400/534 == 74.9%). But, barring a disastrous turn of events, he will get the call -- at long last -- in 2011.
Alomar was the top rookie candidate. I had expected a one-year embargo on Robbie since just before John Hirschbeck had begun to wipe his face, and here it is. He'll get his key next year alongside Blyleven.
Morris (+45) finally crested the 50% mark, but his runway is getting quite short now. The next two ballots are not expected to be deep with strong rookie candidates, and with Blyleven destined to leave the ballot, if Morris' candidacy is going to make a big push -- he's still a long way off -- this is his chance, because the 2013 ballot is going to be a blockbuster, even with several candidates considered controversial. I don't support Morris, but this is a promising shift for those who do favor him.
Larkin made a big opening splash, and should get in after a few years.
Smith (+15) took a little jump, and if he crosses 50% next year I think he'll make it in one of his last three years of eligibility.
Martinez got a good opening, I thought, especially with The DH Thing hanging over him. His 2011 return will tell us more, if this was a "no DH is worthy of MY vote on his first ballot" effect or if the writers really do want to be dweebish about a designated hitter. But he's got 14 ballots remaining and the full force of the sabermetrically-inclined legions on his side. I expect he'll get a plaque in time.
Raines (+42) got a big jump. Maybe it was merely a post-Rickey release, but it is encouraging. Rock has a long runway ahead, and lots of voices behind him. I'm a bit nervous, but hopeful. I want this man elected.
McGwire (+10) -- well, let's just look at his vote totals. 2007, his first ballot -- 128. 2008 -- 128. 2009 -- 118. 2010 -- 128. It almost makes 2009 look like a counting error. The baseball is in his lap; with his new job as Cardinals hitting coach, he'll be back in uniform and on the diamond, and if the Hall is at all important to him, he'll have any number of writers and reporters ready to listen. If he says the right things and brings credibility, things could happen on his behalf. His rehabilitation is completely his to own if he wants to get there.
Trammell (+27) finally cracked 20%, but he's entering the final third of his window of eligibility. I'm not a supporter, but a lot of people are, and I expect this small jump is both encouraging and discouraging, if that makes sense. Time is ticking....
McGriff's 21.5% return was a disappointment to me. It may be the "not a first-ballot man" effect. The 2011 ballot will tell us more. I support Crime Dog.
Mattingly (+23) got back all the votes he lost in 2009 (no returning candidate lost votes this year), but it's not really going to make any difference. He's got five ballots left and is still farting around in the ballot cellar.
Parker (+1) sees his candidacy expire next year. Murphy (+1) is in much the same boat, with three left. Baines (another +1) is buried even deeper; he got a new high in votes, percentage, and votes above relegation, but he's only got voters in Chicago backing him. Nothing to see here.
Of the rookie candidates, only the big four -- Alomar, Larkin, Martinez, and McGriff -- will be returning for the 2011 ballot. Everyone else, eleven candidates, missed the 5% cut. I don't have anything to add regarding Galarraga, Ventura, Burks, Karros, Appier, Hentgen, Jackson, Lankford, Reynolds, or Zeile. About Segui, I will mention just one point -- I thought his getting even one vote would count as a personal triumph, and damned if he didn't get that one vote. Congratulations are in order, I suppose, so there ya go, Segui.
A year from now, the 2011 ballot will have 14 returning candidates and some number of rookies. The leading new names will likely be headlined by Jeff Bagwell. Other names that may be included are Kevin Brown, Larry Walker, Juan Gonzalez, Tino Martinez, John Franco, and Benito Santiago. Finally, a greatly controversial candidate, Rafael Palmeiro, one of the biggest names yet to be suspended under MLB's PED policy. Will he get any voter love? I can't wait to find out.
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