The Hall's 2010 Writers Ballot -- The Results

The Baseball Hall Of Fame announced the results of the writers' ballot on today. Let's take a look and wrap it up for this year.

Congratulations to newest Hall member Andre Dawson.

2010 HOF Voting results (539 ballots returned; 75% (405) needed for election; 5% (27) needed to maintain eligibility)

...candidate.......... votes.. %.. (remaining ballots)

--- ELECTED ---
1. Andre Dawson....... 420.. 77.9%
--- not elected ---
2. Bert Blyleven...... 400.. 74.2%... (2)
3. Roberto Alomar..... 397.. 73.7%.. (14)
4. Jack Morris........ 282.. 52.3%... (4)
5. Barry Larkin....... 278.. 51.6%.. (14)
6. Lee Smith.......... 255.. 47.3%... (7)
7. Edgar Martinez..... 195.. 36.2%.. (14)
8. Tim Raines......... 164.. 30.4%.. (12)
9. Mark McGwire....... 128.. 23.8%.. (11)
10. Alan Trammell..... 121.. 22.5%... (6)
11. Fred McGriff...... 116.. 21.5%.. (14)
12. Don Mattingly...... 87.. 16.1%... (5)
13. Dave Parker........ 82.. 15.2%... (1)
14. Dale Murphy........ 63.. 11.7%... (3)
15. Harold Baines...... 33... 6.1%.. (11)
--- relegated ---
16. Andres Galarraga... 22... 4.1%
17. Robin Ventura....... 7... 1.3%
18t. Ellis Burks........ 2... 0.4%
18t. Eric Karros........ 2... 0.4%
20t. Kevin Appier....... 1... 0.2%
20t. Pat Hentgen........ 1... 0.2%
20t. David Segui........ 1... 0.2%
23t. Mike Jackson....... 0... 0.0%
23t. Ray Lankford....... 0... 0.0%
23t. Shane Reynolds..... 0... 0.0%
23t. Todd Zeile......... 0... 0.0%

Candidates I supported: Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, Martinez, McGriff, McGwire, Murphy, Raines, and Smith.

I rather thought that Dawson would be the lone electee, if there were any, and I'm pleased to have gotten that right, though I'd have preferred being wrong and seeing Blyleven and some others get the call as well.

Curiously, the 2010 election had 539 ballots returned, the exact same number as in 2009, so we don't even have to calculate percentage changes -- basic vote count deltas are just as informative and a bit easier. Let's run down the candidates.

Dawson (+59 votes) gets the happy ending and the summer trip to upstate New York, which had become predictable in everything but the timing. Good for him! Though he wasn't a candidate I supported, I don't begrudge players who get the Hall plaque.

Blyleven (+62, the biggest gain in 2010) fell short by five votes. There were five blank ballots, but even if those five nitwit voters (Jay Mariotti is the only one I know who has identified himself) had not sent them in, Bert would have fallen short by one vote (400/534 == 74.9%). But, barring a disastrous turn of events, he will get the call -- at long last -- in 2011.

Alomar was the top rookie candidate. I had expected a one-year embargo on Robbie since just before John Hirschbeck had begun to wipe his face, and here it is. He'll get his key next year alongside Blyleven.

Morris (+45) finally crested the 50% mark, but his runway is getting quite short now. The next two ballots are not expected to be deep with strong rookie candidates, and with Blyleven destined to leave the ballot, if Morris' candidacy is going to make a big push -- he's still a long way off -- this is his chance, because the 2013 ballot is going to be a blockbuster, even with several candidates considered controversial. I don't support Morris, but this is a promising shift for those who do favor him.

Larkin made a big opening splash, and should get in after a few years.

Smith (+15) took a little jump, and if he crosses 50% next year I think he'll make it in one of his last three years of eligibility.

Martinez got a good opening, I thought, especially with The DH Thing hanging over him. His 2011 return will tell us more, if this was a "no DH is worthy of MY vote on his first ballot" effect or if the writers really do want to be dweebish about a designated hitter. But he's got 14 ballots remaining and the full force of the sabermetrically-inclined legions on his side. I expect he'll get a plaque in time.

Raines (+42) got a big jump. Maybe it was merely a post-Rickey release, but it is encouraging. Rock has a long runway ahead, and lots of voices behind him. I'm a bit nervous, but hopeful. I want this man elected.

McGwire (+10) -- well, let's just look at his vote totals. 2007, his first ballot -- 128. 2008 -- 128. 2009 -- 118. 2010 -- 128. It almost makes 2009 look like a counting error. The baseball is in his lap; with his new job as Cardinals hitting coach, he'll be back in uniform and on the diamond, and if the Hall is at all important to him, he'll have any number of writers and reporters ready to listen. If he says the right things and brings credibility, things could happen on his behalf. His rehabilitation is completely his to own if he wants to get there.

Trammell (+27) finally cracked 20%, but he's entering the final third of his window of eligibility. I'm not a supporter, but a lot of people are, and I expect this small jump is both encouraging and discouraging, if that makes sense. Time is ticking....

McGriff's 21.5% return was a disappointment to me. It may be the "not a first-ballot man" effect. The 2011 ballot will tell us more. I support Crime Dog.

Mattingly (+23) got back all the votes he lost in 2009 (no returning candidate lost votes this year), but it's not really going to make any difference. He's got five ballots left and is still farting around in the ballot cellar.

Parker (+1) sees his candidacy expire next year. Murphy (+1) is in much the same boat, with three left. Baines (another +1) is buried even deeper; he got a new high in votes, percentage, and votes above relegation, but he's only got voters in Chicago backing him. Nothing to see here.

Of the rookie candidates, only the big four -- Alomar, Larkin, Martinez, and McGriff -- will be returning for the 2011 ballot. Everyone else, eleven candidates, missed the 5% cut. I don't have anything to add regarding Galarraga, Ventura, Burks, Karros, Appier, Hentgen, Jackson, Lankford, Reynolds, or Zeile. About Segui, I will mention just one point -- I thought his getting even one vote would count as a personal triumph, and damned if he didn't get that one vote. Congratulations are in order, I suppose, so there ya go, Segui.

A year from now, the 2011 ballot will have 14 returning candidates and some number of rookies. The leading new names will likely be headlined by Jeff Bagwell. Other names that may be included are Kevin Brown, Larry Walker, Juan Gonzalez, Tino Martinez, John Franco, and Benito Santiago. Finally, a greatly controversial candidate, Rafael Palmeiro, one of the biggest names yet to be suspended under MLB's PED policy. Will he get any voter love? I can't wait to find out.