The Hall's 2008 Writers Ballot -- Review and Wrap-up

The Hall announced the results of the writers ballot voting on 08-January -- I'm a bit behind on closing this topic -- and congratulations to Rich "Goose" Gossage for his well-earned, and certainly overdue, election to baseball's most exclusive society and highest individual honor.

2008 HOF Voting results (543 ballots returned)

index - candidate - votes - % - my prediction - how'd I do?

--- ELECTED ---
1. Gossage, Goose..... 466.. 85.82....79%.. got "Elected" right.
--- not elected ---
2. Rice, Jim.......... 392.. 72.19... over 70%..... ok
3. Dawson, Andre...... 358.. 65.93... over 68%..... close
4. Blyleven, Bert..... 336.. 61.88... over 60%..... ok
5. Smith, Lee......... 235.. 43.28... 45%.......... ok
6. Morris, Jack....... 233.. 42.91... 46%.......... close
7. John, Tommy........ 158.. 29.10... ~25%......... low
8. Raines, Tim........ 132.. 24.31... 35%.......... foo!
9. McGwire, Mark...... 128.. 23.57... 29%....... a wild guess
10. Trammell, Alan..... 99.. 18.23... 19%.......... ok
11. Concepcion, Davey.. 88.. 16.21... over 20%.. high; last ballot
12. Mattingly, Don..... 86.. 15.84... 14%.......... ok
13. Parker, Dave....... 82.. 15.10... 15%.......... ok
14. Murphy, Dale....... 75.. 13.81... 15%.......... ok
15. Baines, Harold..... 28... 5.16... below 5%..... oh so close
--- relegated ---
16. Beck, Rod........... 2... 0.37... below 5%..... ok
17. Fryman, Travis...... 2... 0.37... below 5%..... ok
18. Nen, Robb........... 2... 0.37... below 5%..... ok
19. Dunston, Shawon..... 1... 0.18... below 5%..... ok
20. Finley, Chuck....... 1... 0.18... 9%........... way off
21. Justice, David...... 1... 0.18... 6%........... similar
22. Knoblauch, Chuck.... 1... 0.18... below 5%..... ok
23. Stottlemyre, Todd... 1... 0.18... 0 or 1 vote.. ok
24. Anderson, Brady..... 0... 0.00... below 5%..... ok
25. Rijo, Jose.......... 0... 0.00... 2 votes...... high

I don't want to hash over my predictions but a little; they weren't that hard -- voting trends are easy enough to spot -- and Raines was the only ballot newcomer who was worthy of any attention by the voters. I thought they'd show Finley and Justice a little more love, but no, and that doesn't upset me.

All of the other ten ballot newcomers were relegated, and Concepcion's eligibility has now expired, so that clears a lot of deadwood from the 2009 ballot. I'm amazed Baines hung on yet again -- he actually got one vote less than last time, and had no room to spare, but he's bound to fall off soon.

Turning to the other interesting candidates:

McGwire got the exact same vote total as in 2007, so it wasn't a one-time rebuke. The controversy surrounding him and his career will keep his Hall candidacy a continuing enigma for the next few years. As other steroid-suspect players reach the ballot, a sea change may yet come, but there is no way to predict at this early stage.

Raines deserves much higher returns -- heck, he deserves election -- so here's hoping this was a one-time "no first ballot for Rock" response and his 2009 return shows a promising, large jump. (Really, waging the Bert PR campaign is hard enough.)

John has one year left. Don't hope for much.

Morris' candidacy makes people stupid -- or perhaps "emotional" is a better description. No matter how his career is studied, the Hall-worthiness just isn't there unless one desperately wants to see it, in which case it's obvious and the rest of us are blind morons. It really gets tiresome.

Blyleven took a nice jump (+14.2 percentage points) so, we can hope, the ball is rolling toward the deserved bronze plaque at last. Bert 2009! Bert 2010! Come on already!

Dawson's gonna make it, probably by 2010.

Rice has one year left, but he'll get it. Just elect him already. Like Morris, the Hall-worthiness is there if you really, really want to see it. Bleah; the treacle in the articles and columns a year from now is going to be troweled on knee-deep.

And the Goose, at last, bringing in the biggest jump on the ballot, +14.6 percentage points. His inclusion raises the bar on what makes a reliever/closer Hall-class, and this is a good thing.

Looking ahead to the 2009 ballot, there'll be 13 holdovers -- one way or another, Rice's and John's candidacies will expire -- and among the newcomers, there's only one Sure Thing, Rickey Henderson, who is bound to deliver one of the most entertaining, and probably perplexing, induction speeches on record.

Keep stumping for Bert, and put in a good word for Raines as well. We can keep campaigning for him through 2022, but let's hope it doesn't take that long.