Is John Franco A Likely Hall Of Famer?

I'm semi-retired from Yahoo! Answers Baseball, but I still check in and answer a few questions. The interesting ones. Not the old ones, the tired ones, the repetitive ones, the trolling ones, the mindless ones, or even the ones begging for a bit of snark. That doesn't leave a lot from which to select.

But now and then a good one pops up, and sometimes I tear off a long answer worth republishing here. Had one this morning, basically the title question above. Here's what I wrote:

Right now he's not, and he's not going to be for quite some time, if ever.

The Hall and its electorates are only just beginning to get a feel, and it's nowhere yet near strong, for what a relief pitcher (and let's be realistic -- a CLOSER; see mention of middle relievers below) needs to do in order to earn the eternal acclaim of the Hall plaque.

Here's the former MLB players elected primarily for their relief pitching, along with their induction year and winning ballot cycle:

Wilhelm -- 1985 (8th)
Fingers -- 1992 (2nd)
Eckersley -- 2004 (1st)
Sutter -- 2006 (13th)
Gossage -- 2008 (9th)

That's it. Relief pitching has been around forever (though only as a speciality, a role that actually had some respect, for about 40 years), and only five relievers have been found worthy. Well, okay -- closing is a tough position that notoriously burns out players, and rapidly. Few survive in the role, even fewer thrive, and the five names above are pretty darn good representatives for being among the very best at what the job demands. Even so, look at the number of ballots it took them -- Fingers held the saves record (such as it was) for a long time, and Eck, with his unusual career (good starter, then great closer), along with an AL CYA and, very rare for a P, MVP, plus his dashing good looks, managed to convince the voters in just one go. The others took their time, their candidacies needed to mellow and mature.

Further note that three of the five have been in the past six voting cycles, and the other two within the past quarter-century. Relief pitching is still an emerging part of the game. Hall voting always lags such things. It's not a trend, exactly, but one can see where notions and norms are beginning, reluctantly, to shift in directions more favorable to relievers.

Looking ahead, Rivera and HOFfman will get their calls in time, but anyone else? Can't say "no" but can say "not likely". Smith has his proponents.

And this brings us, at last, to Franco. He last played in 2005, and so will first qualify for the 2011 ballot. He recorded 424 saves, currently fourth all time, third when he finished playing. He had some great seasons and plenty of good ones. (Not doing anything resembling a detailed statistical treatment here; for relievers, Saves is the first word, and pretty much the final one, too.)

At a glance, Franco's career looks good, but not Hall good -- but remember, the conceptual Hall reliever is still an emerging portrait. Franco isn't Eck good, and he wasn't really contemporary with the other four Hall relievers, so Eck makes the best comp. Eck made headlines, even when serving up Gibson's famous 1988 WS home run. Franco -- well, there's just not that many memorable moments. A PR campaign could only help his cause.

I don't know how the voters will approach Franco. They might love him. I doubt it, and taking the "not Hall worthy" position certainly is the easy and common view (most players don't measure that highly). But relief pitching (closing) is gaining in respect, gaining in Hall consideration, and maybe, just maybe, the voters will give him some ballot love. Not induction on his first ballot, but perhaps that 5% or more to keep him around and keep fans talking about his career. And as the profile of Hall-worthy closers continues emerging, maybe it'll reach a tipping point, and one day Franco really does look All That and wins the 75% supermajority needed. He can only benefit from getting on the ballot with the timing he will -- and if not benefit him directly, his candidacy will help further define what makes a reliever Hall class and thus benefit others farther down the road.

He probably won't get in, no, but he's in better position than a lot of his peers.

Now, a quick note about middle relievers. It's probably 20 years before any one of this breed even begins to sniff the bronze plaque. Closers have the statistical and historical weight of Saves behind them. Middle relievers have nothing (note, Holds are not yet official). Sure, they do their job, but the undercurrent is "okay, but not durable enough to start and not reliable enough to close". Maybe that is the case, but wouldn't we all benefit from being persuaded about that through debate, rather than take it as received wisdom? This past Hall ballot saw first-timer Jesse Orosco, who holds the record for games pitched, bounced with only one vote. One! Now, I am not claiming Orosco is Hall-worthy -- I don't know. But I really did want to see him get 5%, and get it reliably (like Baines, clearing the bar by some single digit of votes each time), in order to keep him around and begin and maintain a discussion of what makes a middle reliever Hall-worthy, or not Hall-worthy. Orosco, with his extremely long career, made for the PERFECT candidate to spark that discussion -- but he's already been pushed aside, and it'll be a decade before another candidate comes along who could stand up for middle relievers. (Dan Plesac, whose career can be described as "Orosco Lite", was also on the 2009 ballot. He received zero votes.)

It'll be at least ten years before another middle reliever Hall candidate comes along to get that discussion going. And so we wait. And wait.