There's 25 names on the BBWAA players ballot. I'll try to knock them all out in four posts or less, but we'll see.
Let us use the ever-popular alphabetical order. Where a team played for is marked with an asterisk "*", that's the team I consider to be the player's primary team, the one that would be on the plaque cap if elected. Some of these are obvious (single-team players, or those with one particularly long tenure), but I'll explain the few that are a bit slipperier.
Some background points: I tend to put more emphasis on seasons (especially great seasons) than career summary statistics. And I'll say more about those I support for the Hall than those I do not, as there's little point in arguing against a player for the Hall, since that is the default state.
Onward.
1. Brady Anderson
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 15 seasons (1988-2002) with the Boston Red Sox, *Baltimore Orioles, and Cleveland Indians.
Peak season: 1996, by a mile -- 117 runs, 50 HR, 110 RBI, .297/.396/.637, 156 OPS+, 150 runs created.
Primary position: center field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (two starts), led the AL in hit-by-pitch three times (ouch!), darn good hitter in the postseason (.300/.380/.575 in 19 games, 80 AB).
A good outfielder for a long span of seasons, but only one genuinely great year, and coming as it did during the steroids-suspicion era, maybe he was using the magic waters (I really do not care, but many others do). But outside of his 1996 monster year, he was around league-average (sometimes above, sometimes below). Above average fielder but nothing great. Good player, sure, but the Hall looks for greatness.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: one and out; gets below 5% return and is relegated.
2. Harold Baines
Years on ballot: 1.
Peak return: 5.3% (2007).
2007 return: 5.3%
Career: 22 seasons (1980-2001) with the *Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Oakland Athletics, Baltimore Orioles, and Cleveland Indians.
Peak season: 1984 -- 29 HR (career high), 94 RBI, .304/.361/.541, 142 OPS+, 109 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1989, 1991, 1996.
Primary position: right field for seven seasons, then designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections (one start), one Silver Slugger, led the AL in slugging average in 1984. Good postseason hitter (.324/.378/.510 in 31 G, 102 AB). Jersey #3 retired by the White Sox (before he had retired as a player, so he wore it again when he returned to the South Side later in his career). His career 1628 RBI currently enable Baines to hold the title of "Most RBI Not In The Hall", a title which eventually got Tony Perez in, and one which Baines is likely to hold until Rafael Palmeiro reaches the ballot.
Baines was a good hitter, but not a great one -- even his best seasons were not earth-shaking -- and as a DH, he doesn't have any defensive value to fall back upon. His candidacy barely scraped past relegation on his first ballot, and I don't think it's going to survive a second.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: below 5% return, and relegated.
3. Rod Beck
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 13 seasons (1991-2001, 2003-04) with the *San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, and San Diego Padres.
Peak season: 1993 -- 48 saves, 3-1, 2.16 ERA, 86 K, 180 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 2000, 2003.
Primary position: RH relief pitcher / closer (704 games pitched, zero starts).
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (obviously, zero starts), 1994 National League Rolaids Relief Award (yes, this is a real, MLB-sanctioned award). Career 286 saves. Well-earned reputation for being a "regular guy" who liked yakking with the fans and enjoyed a can or two of beer. Swung his pitching arm like a pendulum while checking the signs, which was an entertaining quirk.
Let's first clear up a misconception. Beck, sadly, died earlier this year; had he lived, he wouldn't have qualified for the Hall ballot until the 2010 election. His candidacy was not, however, granted a waiver, or any other special conditions as inaccurately described in the media. The Hall's rules for the BBWAA elections includes Rule 3, which defines eligibility, and while 3(C) spells out the standard five-year waiting period before consideration, it also includes 3(D), which grants accelerated consideration in the event of the death of a potential candidate. The exact language:
In case of the death of an active player or a player who has been retired for less than five (5) full years, a candidate who is otherwise eligible shall be eligible in the next regular election held at least six (6) months after the date of death or after the end of the five (5) year period, whichever occurs first.
Beck died on 23-June-2007, so the six month window is almost expired (ballots have to be returned by 31-December, IIRC, so this is good enough), and he is eligible for the December 2007 ballot (considered the 2008 election). The rules cover his rare case -- this was first codified following Roberto Clemente's special election, and has since been used for Thurman Munson and Darryl Kile as well -- and no waiver is necessary. Just clarifying that; Beck gets accelerated consideration, but this is already defined. RIP, Rod.
Moving on from administrivia, Beck was a very good reliever and a darn good showman, and the Hall's notions of worthy relievers is still in flux, but Beck isn't going to help define that notion from the inside. Not a Hall-worthy career. Sorry, Rod.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: one and out; below 5%, relegated.
4. Bert Blyleven
Years on ballot: 10.
Peak return: 53.3% (2006).
2007 return: 47.7%
Career: 22 seasons (1970-90, 1992) with the *Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Indians, and California Angels.
Peak season: 1973 -- 20-17, 2.52, 258 K, 158 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1974, 1977, 1984, 1989.
Primary position: RH starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Let's start with his current title -- Best Eligible Pitcher Not In The Hall -- and get back to this in a bit. Two All-Star selections, led AL in strikeouts once and shutouts three times. Fifth highest career strikeout total, third highest when he retired. 287 career wins, which is tantalizingly close to 300. Member of two World Series champion teams, the 1979 Pirates and the 1987 Twins, and contributed well to both -- excellent postseason pitcher, 5-1, 2.47 in 8 games, 6 starts, 47.1 IP, 36 K, 8 BB.
Blyleven -- ah, Blyleven. The worthiest pitcher not in the Hall, and well deserving of being moved to the other side of the velvet rope. Underappreciated in his own time and still today. If he'd reached 300 wins -- and given back a full 1981 or a healthy 1982 or 1991 (which he missed entirely, coming back for one last season at age 41), he probably would have -- he'd have been ushered in long ago. Instead, he lingers, high in ballot returns but not yet enough, and running short on the ballot clock. While I think there are few injustices of players overlooked for the Hall across the long span of baseball history, Blyleven is, alas, one of those few. Had some genuinely great seasons, and a lot of good ones. Delivered a lot of on-field value. Devastating curveball, textbook class. Sixty career shutouts, which ranks 9th all time, and in the post-WWII era, he ranks 4th, behind HOFers Spahn (63), Ryan (61), and Seaver (61), so he's right in the neighborhood of some very good company. "Only" won 20 games once (1973) but put up plenty of Ws regardless. Comparisons to Kaat or John are superficial and based upon nothing but proximal career win totals (Kitty had 283, John 288), as Blyleven beats both of them soundly in just about any other stat; he was a definitively better pitcher. I don't know what it is that the voters do not see in this man's career that doesn't appear to measure up, unless it's that damnable "fell short of 300 wins" thing, which hasn't prevented other, certainly worthy, pitchers from winning election. Blyleven's plaque is long overdue. As noted, he is The Best Eligible Pitcher Not In The Hall, and he needs to pass on that title (probably to Jack Morris) with the happy ending (election!) and not the sad ending (ballot eligibility expiration). Bert For The Hall!!!
Chipmaker's vote: YES!
Prediction: surpasses 60%. That the next few ballots are weak on platinum candidates only helps the cause.
5. Dave Concepcíon
Years on ballot: 14.
Peak return: 16.9% (1998).
2007 return: 13.6%
Career: 19 seasons (1970-88) with the *Cincinnati Reds.
Peak season: 1978 -- 170 hits, 6 HR, 33 doubles (career high), .301/.357/.405, 114 OPS+, 82 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1974, 1976, 1981, but let's not pretend that this man was on the field for his hitting.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: nine All-Star selections (five starts), 1982 All-Star Game MVP, five NL Gold Gloves for Shortstop, two NL Silver Sluggers for Shortstop, member (and a valuable one) of the legendary Big Red Machine, the 1970s Reds dreadnought, which won two World Series championships (1975-76), two other NL pennants (1970, '72), and two other NL West titles (1973, when Concepcíon was injured, and the last gasp in 1979). Jersey #13 retired by the Reds.
Concepcíon was a decent hitter, but that's all he had to be when surrounded by Bench and Morgan and Foster and Griffey and Rose. He was a player for his glove, and he was very good on defense, the sort a champion team likes to have and sometimes even needs. And, for his efforts, he was awarded a plurality of Gold Gloves and even more All-Star selections. All of that, I think, is the right amount of honoraria for Concepcíon -- the Hall should be about more than offense (and his bat certainly isn't why he's on the ballot), but defense is still sufficiently slippery to evaluate that defense-dominant players need a measure of legend to convince voters (and unbiased fans) that their candidacy is worthy of the bronze plaque. I'm not at all sure that this is how defensive players should be approached, but it is how the writer electorate treats such players. Concepcíon has only once convinced 1/6 of the electorate that he merits their votes, and even in this election, his last time on the writers ballot, I don't think he'll improve on that, certainly not enough. I agree with the writers -- good player, very good defensive shortstop, but not enough for the Hall.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: "last ballot" sympathy lets him crack 20%, but that's all, folks.
6. Andre Dawson
Years on ballot: 6.
Peak return: 61.0% (2006).
2007 return: 56.7%
Career: 21 seasons (1976-96) with the *Montréal Expos, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, and Florida Marlins.
Peak season: 1981 -- 24 HR, 64 RBI, .302/.365/.553 in 103 games (the Expos played only 108 games in the strike-split season, which was the most of any NL East team), 157 OPS+, 83 RC (which would pro-rate to around 124 RC in 154 games played).
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1983, 1987, 1988, 1990.
Primary position: center field when he was younger, right field when he was older.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 1987 NL MVP, 1977 NL ROY, eight All-Star selections (seven starts, five at CF and two at RF), eight NL Gold Gloves for outfield, four NL Silver Sluggers for outfield, led NL in hits in 1983, home runs and RBI in 1987, and in hit-by-pitch four times (ouch!). Career 438 homers, 1591 RBI, 2774 hits. Jersey #10 retired by the Expos.
I have a standing evaluation of Dawson and a few other players: he'd look good on a plaque, but the Hall is not a lesser institution for his absence. The thing about Dawson's career that bothers me the most is his on-base percentage -- peak season of .365, career .323. If elected, that would be the lowest OBP by a primary outfielder by about 20 points (Brock and Yount are in the low .340s). It's not the number itself that irritates me, but rather what it indicates about how he played his game. Dawson made a LOT of outs, and outs are bad. He currently ranks 21st in career outs, and while all the men above him are either in the Hall, will be some day (Henderson, Biggio), are ineligible (Rose), or are doomed (Palmeiro), being in such good company doesn't give him an automatic induction. I realize his 438 homers are a lot shinier than his .323 OBP, and everyone likes him, and expect some day the writers will vote him in. I'm just not convinced; truly great players should know how to take a walk. I'll be happy for him the day he gets the nod, though.
I realize I did not select his 1987 NL MVP season as his peak performance season. While it certainly was an impressive season, it wasn't really a great one, and if I'd had a vote for the NL MVP Award that year it probably would have gone to Ozzie Smith. Well, someone had to win it.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: surpasses 68%, essentially entering the electoral promised land, and gets elected either in 2009 or 2010. (Which will be a good thing, because Dawson and Raines are the last chances for an Expos player to be honored in the Hall. Yes, eventually there's Guerrero and Martinez, but they'll go in under other team logos.)
More soon....
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