Friday, November 30, 2007

The Hall's 2008 Writers Ballot -- The Player Candidates, Part 2

Continuing with the candidates on the BBWAA's players ballot, voting returns to be announced Tuesday, 08-January-2008.

7. Shawon Dunston

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 18 seasons (1985-2002) with the *Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Indians, St. Louis Cardinals, and New York Mets.
Peak season: 1995 -- 14 HR, 69 RBI, .296/.317/.472, 107 OPS+, 68 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1997 was pretty good by his own standards, but Dunston isn't on the ballot for his hitting.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections. First overall draft pick in 1982.

Dunston is noted for having a rocket of a throwing arm, making the throw across the diamond to first with ease. He was quite good defensively, above league average in range factor for the first part of his career. But he spent a lot of time injured in 1992 and 1993, and was rarely more than a part-time player afterwards. Wouldn't take a walk if spotted a 3-0 count. Defensive-based candidate players need that touch of legend, and Dunston doesn't have it.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: one and out, below 5%, relegated.

8. Chuck Finley

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 17 seasons (1986-2002) with the *California/Anaheim Angels, Cleveland Indians, and St. Louis Cardinals.
Peak season: 1990 -- 18-9, 2.40, 177 K, 7 CG, 2 ShO, 236 IP, 158 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1989, 1993, 1998.
Primary position: LH starting pitcher, though he was a middle reliever for his first two seasons.
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections, led AL in complete games in 1993 (with 13), innings pitched and starts in 1994. The only pitcher in major league history to have a four strikeout inning more than once, and he did it three times. 200 wins, .536 winning percentage, 2610 strikeouts. Used to be married to actress Tawny Kitaen, which makes no difference to his baseball career but a touch of even C-list celebrity never hurts.

Finley was a good and useful pitcher for a long stretch, but other than the four seasons cited above, he never demonstrated greatness (and even those four are not that great). It's good to have a reliable, above-average pitcher to put on the mound, but that doesn't get one into the Hall. There are better starting pitchers than Finley who haven't yet gotten the call.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: 9% return, avoids relegation for a few years.

9. Travis Fryman

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 13 seasons (1990-2002) with the *Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians.
Peak season: 1993 -- 182 hits, 22 HR, 97 RBI, 37 doubles, 77 walks, .300/.379/.486, 133 OPS+, 117 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1990 (short rookie season), 2000.
Primary position: third base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections (one start), one AL Gold Glove at Third Base, one AL Silver Slugger at Shortstop.

A useful player, decent power, a little above league average with the glove and could play shortstop in a pinch. Nothing here indicates Hall-class greatness. This ballot has a woefully thin crop of first-timers, some of whom appear to be filler for the sake of appearances. Fryman wasn't a bad player, but he's nowhere near Hall level.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: under 5%, relegated.

10. Rich "Goose" Gossage

Years on ballot: 8.
Peak return: 71.2% (2007)
2007 return: 71.2%

Career: 22 seasons (1972-89, 1991-94) with the Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, *New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Oakland Athletics, and Seattle Mariners.
Peak season: 1981 -- 3-2, 20 saves, 0.77, 48 K, 461 ERA+ (!), 0.771 WHIP.
Other outstanding seasons: 1975, 1977, 1978, 1980, 1982, 1983, 1985 -- and he's got some other pretty good ones too, but these are his personal cream.
Primary position: RH relief pitcher / closer.
Honoraria and claims to fame: nine All-Star selections, 1978 AL Rolaids Relief Award, finished third in the 1980 AL Cy Young Award voting (a rarity for a reliever) and also third in the AL MVP voting (extremely rare for a reliever). Led the AL in saves three times. Member (key member) of the 1978 World Series champion Yankees. Very good postseason pitcher -- 2-1, 8 saves, 2.87, 29 K (to 7 walks) in 19 games, 31.1 IP.

Gossage at his peak brought a palpable sense of doom with him when he came out of the bullpen. That's it, show's over, the Goose is coming in to do the cooking. And he did so, more often than not. Devastating fastball. Finished with 310 career saves, which doesn't look amazing today but was something special back then (ranked fourth all-time when he retired after the 1994 season). Probably hung on longer than he should have; after his peak was over, around 1986, he was still a good pitcher but stopped closing games a few years later. None of that, however, diminishes what he did do in his long, amazing peak. Received votes for the CYA and MVP Awards in five different seasons (always in the same season), and relievers just don't pull that sort of recognition today. Gossage was a brilliant reliever and practically a force of nature when he was on his game.

He was also the last pitcher active who had played (and batted) in the pre-designated hitter AL, going 0-16 with 11 strikeouts for the 1972 Chicago White Sox. Means nothing here, but someday maybe you'll win a trivia contest with this tidbit.

Oh, one more bit of trivia -- Gossage recorded his 308th save in the same game that Nolan Ryan recorded his 308th win. You could look it up.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: the happy ending at last, elected to the Hall Of Fame with 79%.

11. Tommy John

Years on ballot: 13.
Peak return: 29.6% (2006).
2007 return: 22.9%

Career: 26 seasons (1963-74, '76-89) with the Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, *Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, California Angels, and Oakland Athletics.
Peak season: 1968 (wasn't it for just about any pitcher?) -- 10-5, 1.98, 117 K, 161 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1974, 1977, 1979, 1981. But in one way, his 1976 season was his most amazing, as no one ever expected him to pitch at all.
Primary position: LH starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections, three coming after 1975. Led the AL in shutouts three times, winning percentage once. First baseball player to undergo ligament replacement surgery, a procedure which now informally bears his name: Tommy John surgery.

John was a good pitcher for a very long time, but let's cut to the chase -- his lasting claim to fame was his reconstructed elbow, a procedure pioneered by Dr. Frank Jobe, which caused him to miss the entire 1975 season but put him back on the diamond in 1976. John himself is known to joke about his left arm being 30 years younger than he is. The procedure is now essentially routine, and rehab is down to about nine months. John deserves credit for trying it and making a successful return, but that alone isn't enough to get him into the Hall, nor does he have any great seasons of the sort I like to see. John had his only three 20+ win seasons in the five years after his return, but after that he faded to league average (or worse) and, although he made a good attempt at reaching 300 wins, it was not to be, ending with 288. Some people don't like "accumulators", and John was one of those (I don't have a strong opinion either way, as I prefer to look for great seasons than career summary stats.) Good pitcher and an all-time trivia answer, but not Hall-class.

I selected the Dodgers as John's primary team despite his spending more seasons with the White Sox and Yankees, because it was his one year in LA when he did not play that gives him a lot of his historical weight. Not enough, though.

If the Hall ever decides to stand Dr. Jobe for consideration, however, I'll be foursquare behind his candidacy. The impact his procedure and subsequent research has had on the game (and other sports, and so many people) has been enormous and positive. He'd look great on a plaque.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: another ho-hum, around 25% return, with one final ballot next year before his candidacy expires.

12. David Justice

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 14 seasons (1989-2002) with the *Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Indians, New York Yankees, and Oakland Athletics.
Peak season: 1997 -- 33 HR, 101 RBI, 80 walks, .329/.418/.596, 158 OPS+, 124 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 2000.
Primary position: right field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (two starts), 1990 NL ROY, two Silver Sluggers for Outfield (one NL, one AL), 2000 ALCS MVP. Member of the 1995 World Series champion Braves, smacking a solo homer for the entire scoring in the 1-0 Game 6 clincher. Also a member of the 2000 World Series champion Yankees. Briefly married to actress Halle Berry (touch of celebrity, again).

By virtue of joining the Braves just as the team's ascendancy began, and then moving to the Indians, Yankees, and Athletics, Justice played in the postseason ten of his 14 seasons -- missing the first two when the Braves were poor, 1994 when there was no playoffs, and 1996 when he was injured. As a result, his 112 postseason games played rank third (behind Derek Jeter and Bernie Williams).

Aside from the Cy Young Award-winning pitchers, Justice was the star of the first half of the Braves dynasty. Very good hitter, average defensively. He was the right man in the right place at the right time for the Braves. But he was never a Hall-class, great player.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: just dodges relegation with 6% return.

Just under half complete... more soon.

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