Friday, November 30, 2007

The Hall's 2008 Writers Ballot -- The Player Candidates, Part 3

Continuing with the writers ballot candidates.

13. Chuck Knoblauch

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 12 seasons (1991-2002) with the *Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, and Kansas City Royals.
Peak season: 1996 -- 197 hits, 140 runs, 13 HR, 72 RBI, 35 doubles, 14 triples, 98 walks, 45 stolen bases, .341/.448/.517, 143 OPS+, 147 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1999.
Primary position: second base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections, 1991 AL ROY, one AL Gold Glove at Second Base, two AL Silver Sluggers at Second Base (amazingly, 1995 and 1997, bookending his peak season), led AL in doubles once and triples once. Member of the 1991 World Series champion Twins and the 1998-1999-2000 World Series champion Yankees.

Knoblauch was an above-average but not brilliant fielder, until late in his career his fielding fell apart and he was moved to left field -- so, to the point, his glovework isn't going to get him into the Hall. And neither is his hitting -- he knew how to take a walk and had good doubles power, but such players are not rare. Useful isn't Hall-class by itself. Knoblauch was a fun player to watch, but Cooperstown is not his final stop.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: relegated on his first ballot.

14. Don Mattingly

Years on ballot: 7.
Peak return: 28.2% (2001).
2007 return: 9.9%

Career: 14 seasons (1982-95) with the *New York Yankees.
Peak season: 1986 -- 238 hits, 117 runs, 31 Hr, 113 RBI, 53 doubles, .352/.394/.573, 161 OPS+, 150 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1984, 1985, 1987.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections (one start), 1985 AL MVP, nine AL Gold Gloves at First Base, three AL Silver Sluggers at First Base, 1984 AL batting champion, 1986 AL slugging champion, led AL in hits twice, doubles three times, RBI once. Set the major league single season record for grand slams with six in 1987 (and never hit another in his entire career). Tied the ML record for consecutive games with a home run, with eight. Tied the ML record for most putouts in a game, with 22. Jersey #23 retired by the Yankees.

Baseball bonus points: Mattingly has been a coach for the Yankees for the last several years. This has (or maybe, had) given rise to hopes among Yankee fandom that some day he would take the manager's seat and earn his Hall plaque the other traditional Yankee way, by piling up trophies. Well, maybe -- but he's now gone, and I don't think we can annoint him a Hall-worthy manager until he actually begins managing.

Donnie Baseball was, along with Dave Winfield and Rickey Henderson, the only bright spots in Bronx baseball for most of the 1980s. The team was good but never good enough to win the division, and Mattingly never saw the postseason until his last year, 1995, when he played great but the Mariners just squeaked by in a five-game, down to the wire classic. And thus was born the Curse of Don Mattingly -- the Yankees never won a championship while he was there, promptly won four after he retired, and stopped winning when he returned as a coach. Go figure.

Mattingly was, without question, one of the two or three hottest players in baseball for a magical four-year stretch, 1984-87, winning one MVP and finishing second another time. Even his 1988 and '89 seasons were pretty good, but then he injured his back and the majestic swing was robbed of its power. Mattingly was pedestrian after that. Position matters; his numbers from a catcher or second baseman would be amazing, but baseball history is littered with good-hitting first baseman. And as great as his four-year peak was, four years is not a Hall-class career. Outside of that, he was merely mortal. The injury was a harsh thing, but sometimes that happens. Illness and injury have felled better players than Donnie, and no credit should be given for things not done. I know there's a generation of Yankees fans who love him, but, well, sorry -- pinstriped glasses might make him look All That, but they don't make him better than he was. And he was not Hall-class.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: his vote totals have been falling, but he bounces back a little bit to 14%. Don't look for the happy ending, Yankees fen -- he either falls below 5% and gets relegated some year, or simply lingers for the full 15 and drops off.

15. Mark McGwire

Years on ballot: 1.
Peak return: 23.5% (2007).
2007 return: 23.5%

Career: 16 seasons (1986-2001) with the *Oakland Athletics and St. Louis Cardinals.
Peak season: 1998 -- 130 runs, then-record 70 HR, 147 RBI, then-NL record 162 walks, .299/.470/.752, 216 OPS+, 193 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, and 2000 even though he played only 89 games.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 12 All-Star selections (six starts), 1987 AL ROY, one AL Gold Glove at First Base, three Silver Sluggers at First Base (one AL, two NL), led his league in OBP twice, SLG four times, home runs four times, RBI once, walks twice. Rookie record 49 HR. Record 70 HR in 1998, since surpassed once. Member of the 1989 World Series champion Athletics. Member of the 500 Home Runs Club (583 career).

Big Mac finished second, to Sammy Sosa, in the 1998 NL MVP voting, one of the worst and least justifiable results in recent history. McGwire was penalized for having lesser teammates than Sosa did, as the Cubs crawled into the postseason while Mac's Cardinals finished in third place. Make no mistake, Sosa had a great season, but McGwire had a historic one; the voting should not have been close -- and it wasn't, but in the wrong way. Damn mediots.

People dismissive of McGwire like to claim he was "one-dimensional", though if you ask them about this they never have a firm definition of what that means. It is nonsense anyway, when applied to McGwire -- his best-known dimension, power, came in league-leading servings, which is not at all a bad thing, but he also provided league-leading on-base ability -- he knew how to take a walk -- and that combination, power and on-base, is deadly. And highly desirable -- general managers will pay a lot for players who can provide both in the massive amounts McGwire could. He was more than just 583 homers, and those 583 homers alone are considerable. Homers are good things. On his stats alone, McGwire is unquestionably Hall-worthy.

But... yeah, you knew this was coming... McGwire's candidacy doesn't get to testify based on just his statistics and gameplay style. He is known to have used androstenedione (which, at the time, was both legal and not prohibited by MLB), and there is wide suspicion that he was using other, stronger magic waters as well. No one knows that, not publicly, and we may never have the full story. I honestly do not care -- MLB is a competitive enterprise that attracts competitive people, who are all, always, looking for an edge, a (preferably permitted) way to play better and win more, and if they find something which the sanctioning body has not outlawed, that something will get used. So if McGwire was using something to play better and win more, he was being a smart player, and I'm not going to frown upon him for that.

But the writers, the Hall electors, will, and did.

I have no flaming idea what his 2008 ballot return will look like, since it was well-known his 2007 return would amount to an unofficial rebuke, both for the magic waters rumors and his uninspiring Congressional testimony in March 2005. Some writers may now consider that withholding their vote once was sufficient sanction, and he'll gain some ground. But it's just a guess.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes.

Prediction: jumps a few points to, oh, 29%. But honestly I have no idea.

16. Jack Morris

Years on ballot: 8.
Peak return: 41.2% (2006).
2007 return: 37.1%

Career: 18 seasons (1977-94) with the *Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins, Toronto Blue Jays, and Cleveland Indians.
Peak season: 1986 -- 21-8, 15 CG, 6 ShO, 223 K, 3.27, 267 IP, 127 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1979, 1981, 1987, 1991, 1992.
Primary position: RH starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections (three starts), 1991 World Series MVP, led AL in wins twice, strikeouts once, shutouts once. Pitched a no-hitter in 1984. Member of three World Series champion teams, the 1984 Tigers, the 1991 Twins, and the 1992 Blue Jays. A good postseason pitcher, going 7-4, 3.80 in 13 games, 92.1 IP, with one legendary night.

Morris was a good pitcher, no doubt, but he never put up a truly great season. Fat wins totals, yes, because he played on (and strongly contributed to) good teams. But his ERA and WHIP were never in the elite -- never led the league in either, and his best seasonal ranking ever was 4th in WHIP, 5th in ERA. Durable and dependable are very good things but not enough for the Hall.

And then we have his legendary night, Game 7 of the 1991 World Series, wherein Morris outlasted a young John Smoltz, kept the Braves scoreless into the tenth inning, and finished with an extra-inning complete game shutout to win the championship. No question it was a brilliant, gutsy performance in a high-pressure environment, probably the second-best postseason pitching performance ever (edging in just behind Larsen's perfect game). It was a game for the ages -- if you didn't see it or weren't yet born, I feel a little sorry for you -- but ultimately, it was one game, and one game does not make a career Hall-worthy.

Morris' ballot returns are futzing around the midway mark, slowly growing, but not yet showing any inevitable momentum. If the writers vote him in, well done -- but if they never do I don't think it will be a shame.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: uninspiring ballot (much like 2006) gives Morris' candidacy a little giddyup, bringing home 46% -- promising but still mostly tease for Tigers fans.

17. Dale Murphy

Years on ballot: 9.
Peak return: 23.2% (2000).
2007 return: 9.2%

Career: 18 seasons (1976-93) with the *Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, and Colorado Rockies.
Peak season: 1983 -- 131 runs, 36 HR, 121 RBI, 30 stolen bases, 90 walks, .302/.393/.540, 149 OPS+, 131 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987.
Primary position: center field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: seven All-Star selections (five starts), 1982 and 1983 NL MVP, five NL Gold Gloves for Outfield, four NL Silver Sluggers for Outfield, led NL in slugging twice, runs scored once, home runs twice, RBI twice. Jersey #3 retired by the Braves.

I place Murf alongside Dawson -- he'd look good on a plaque, but the Hall is not a lesser institution without him. Had a brilliant, six-year peak, hotter than Mattingly even without accounting for position (great CFs are harder to find than great 1Bmen). Defensively he was very good, and merited being in center. And then, after 1987, he fell off a cliff, became a league-average player for the rest of his career, and fell short of the 400 home run milestone (398; makes little difference, but 400 looks better). The writers have been giving him far less love than I have expected.

Two other points to note. One, among the voting criteria is that a player's character, integrity, and sportsmanship should be taken in to consideration. Dale Murphy is, from all accounts, one of the finest human beings ever to walk the diamond, a genuinely nice guy and kind person. If anyone would ever earn some bonus points for character, it'd be Murf -- and yet his vote returns keep dropping. So either the "character and integrity" concepts are mainly included for use as an excuse against voting for a player, or the writers simply don't bother putting in that sort of consideration. Not that being a nice guy should earn Murf the plaque, but below 10%? Come on, his character should be worth a little love.

Second, in the still-turbulent wake of the steroids era scandal, many people have proffered that the many suspicions surrounding the inflated powerball stats of the 1990s will start to make the 1980s guys look a lot better -- mainly Dawson, Murphy, and Jim Rice (who's coming up later), men who have gained the Hall ballot but not yet the plaque. Well, that's a nice theory, but it hasn't borne much fruit -- Rice and Dawson are still lingering, and Murphy's candidacy is fading badly.

I don't know what the writers are thinking, and I could change my mind next week, but right now I'm going to say that with his scorching peak, tough fielding position, and type of person is just enough to convince me to move just past the borderline.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes.

Prediction: gets a "weak ballot" bounce back up to 15%, but it just isn't showing any real hope for the happy ending.

18. Robb Nen

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 10 seasons (1993-2002) with the Texas Rangers, Florida Marlins, and *San Francisco Giants.
Peak season: 2000 -- 4-3, 41 saves, 1.50, 92 K in 66 IP, 284 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1996, 1998, 2002.
Primary position: RH relief pitcher / closer.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections, led NL in saves once. Member of the 1997 World Series champion Marlins and the 2002 NL champion Giants.

Nen was a very good closer with flashes of greatness. The Hall, however, still hasn't built a reliable notion of what makes a Hall-class relief pitcher, as there are few already in, and they're not all that similar -- Wilhelm, Eckersley, Fingers, Sutter. And the leading future candidates -- Gossage, Rivera, Hoffman -- won't really improve the issue right away. Nen, however, is not of the same cut as the men just named. Maybe someday, as the concept of a Hall-class reliever starts to gel, he'll look a lot better, but right now there are better closers waiting ahead of him.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: below 5%, relegated. Though I'll be quite happy if he skirts past and gets on the ballot again next year.

More to come, should finish up the candidates in one more post.

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