Today, for the first time I can recall in Austin, I paid over $3.00 for a gallon of gas. I knew it was coming for a while now -- but stations had still held out at $2.99 for quite some time (as peak; sometimes it dropped lower), which clearly was for psychological reasons. People just hate seeing that next dollar mark breached. Well, there it goes.
Economic policies of the current administration are proven failures, unless you're already stinking rich. So, stop voting for such meretricious pieces of filth. Especially when they're from Texas.
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Monday, February 11, 2008
...and Three
A quick two weeks later on the calendar, our son Carson's birthday follows Amalie's, as he turns three today. He never did stay "baby" for long -- his face lost the standard baby fat, the rounded softness, after a few months -- but now he's a genuine, full-fledged kid. He's finally old enough to play in the local kid soccer league, which starts in two weeks.
Later tonight, after gymnastics, he'll get to have his Present Hunt around the house -- and he's hoping for many toy cars. Trust me, it is covered. He's also getting a couple of other toys, an Ikea chair that was overlooked at Christmastime, some annual coin sets, a baseball bean bag chair, and a twin-size set of Lightning McQueen sheets for when we get him a bed. He's also getting soccer shinguards, but those are not so much a gift as mandatory equipment. And, to keep things fair, Amie is also getting the same coin sets, and her own bean bag -- pink, of course.
Later we'll have cupcakes. We made banana bread last week and took it to his daycare school on Friday (he doesn't attend on Mondays), and it was completely gone by day's end. This is typical; we make banana bread about once a month or so, contribute it as a treat for the kids, and they love it. So yummy!
After letting myself get badly overwhelmed by Christmas and birthdays in 2006-07, this gift-giving season went much more smoothly. I'm pleased, and not at all stressed like before. Ahhhhh!
Of course, Valentine's Day is later this week, but we make very little fuss about that holiday. Tiny boxes of chocolates and we're done. That's more than enough.
Later tonight, after gymnastics, he'll get to have his Present Hunt around the house -- and he's hoping for many toy cars. Trust me, it is covered. He's also getting a couple of other toys, an Ikea chair that was overlooked at Christmastime, some annual coin sets, a baseball bean bag chair, and a twin-size set of Lightning McQueen sheets for when we get him a bed. He's also getting soccer shinguards, but those are not so much a gift as mandatory equipment. And, to keep things fair, Amie is also getting the same coin sets, and her own bean bag -- pink, of course.
Later we'll have cupcakes. We made banana bread last week and took it to his daycare school on Friday (he doesn't attend on Mondays), and it was completely gone by day's end. This is typical; we make banana bread about once a month or so, contribute it as a treat for the kids, and they love it. So yummy!
After letting myself get badly overwhelmed by Christmas and birthdays in 2006-07, this gift-giving season went much more smoothly. I'm pleased, and not at all stressed like before. Ahhhhh!
Of course, Valentine's Day is later this week, but we make very little fuss about that holiday. Tiny boxes of chocolates and we're done. That's more than enough.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
My 2008 Hugo Nominations
The Hugo Awards are the highest honors in science fiction, announced annually at the World Science Fiction Convention, or WorldCon. I was a member of the 2007 WorldCon (but did not attend, as it was in Japan, and circumstances aligned solidly against it), and so am entitled to make nominations for the 2008 Hugos. Once the final ballot is compiled, members of the 2008 WorldCon -- Denvention 3, to be held in Denver in August -- are eligible to vote. I'm probably going to attend, but haven't yet decided for certain.
Despite being a member of several past WorldCons, I've never before submitted a Hugo nomination ballot, mainly because I wasn't all that interested -- I like SF but I'm more a dabbler or dilettante than hardcore about it. But this year, I have been badgered to submit, as I slightly know one candidate. Okay, that's fair, try to help a friend get on the final ballot, maybe even win. The Hugos are, after all, devastatingly cool.
So here's what I have on my nomination ballot, noting that I made no submissions whatsoever in several categories: Best Novelette, Best Short Story, Best Editor - Short Form, Best Editor - Long Form, Best Fanzine, Best Fan Writer, and Best Fan Artist. I have no ideas, so I simply am passing.
What I did submit:
Best Novel
Terry Pratchett -- Making Money
J.R.R. Tolkien -- The Children Of Húrin
J.K. Rowling -- Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows
I love Pratchett's work, and while MM isn't his best Discworld novel, it is still a pretty good one. I included Tolkien because, heck, when will I ever get another chance to nominate Tolkien? And Rowling, well, she surely won't need my vote to get on the final ballot, but sometimes it's fun to go along with the crowd.
Best Novella
Melanie Fletcher -- "Sabre Dance"
Shameless nepotism here.
Best Related Book
Phil & Kaja Foglio -- Girl Genius Vol. 6: Agatha Heterodyne And The Golden Trilobite
As with Pratchett, I absolutely love the Foglios' work, and the Girl Genius series -- which continues three times weekly on their website -- is a massive, engaging, essentially brilliant work. Whenever it is finished -- or at least, whenever this still-somewhat-introductory storyline reaches a conclusion or significant breakpoint -- it will stand as, no kidding, a masterpiece of the genre and in the field. Girl Genius is THAT good. As a work in the comic style, words and pictures, I didn't think it fit anywhere else on the ballot.
Best Dramatic Presentation, Long Form
Fantastic Four: Rise Of The Silver Surfer
Blade Runner: The Final Cut
Enchanted
Transformers
Ghost Rider
Generically this is the "movies" category but it is open to any presented works of 90 minutes or longer. I enjoyed Surfer a great deal, it was much better than the first FF film and did a respectable job of bringing the original Silver Surfer story to the silver screen. The new, allegedly final edit of Blade Runner was excellent, and just having the chance to nominate it is reason enough to nominate it. Transformers and Ghost Rider were both good fun that treated the material with suitable respect; they told good stories without being dumb or tongue-in-cheek.
Enchanted is probably the best treatment of the archetypal Disney princess tale ever done. It is witty, funny, captivating, is told well, good direction, spot-on acting by the leads, excellent songs. It is -- dare I say it? -- enchanting. I list it here proudly, as it is a genuine treat of a film that anyone can enjoy.
Best Dramatic Presentation, Short Form
Avatar: The Last Airbender -- "The Day Of Black Sun (Parts 1 & 2)"
Avatar: The Last Airbender -- "The Avatar And The Firelord"
Futurama: Bender's Big Score
TMNT
Shrek The Halls
The short form category is for productions of 90 minutes or less, so most television shows will fit in here, but anything is eligible if short enough. I know I'm skirting a bit by including the new Futurama and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles works, but they do come in under the time limit. Despite being canceled in 2003, the Futurama crew came back into action without missing a step, and it was a delight to have them back. The Turtles film was a bit silly but had some brilliant action sequences, and some of the best dramatic character interaction of the year. Avatar is a wonderful show -- my kids, 6 and 3, love it as much as I do, and follow the stories easily despite being well-detailed at times. Unfortunately, Nickelodeon is treating it dismally of late; perhaps getting some deserved recognition for this fine series will encourage the head office to shape up a bit. I picked what I thought were the two (well, three) best episodes that debuted in 2007. And the Shrek Christmas special was excellent, especially after the disappointment of the third feature film; it meshed the irascible ogre with the holiday spirit very well, and I think it's going to be a perennial in the Christmas special pantheon.
Best Professional Artist
Phil Foglio -- Girl Genius
I've already gushed at length. He's won it before, and deserves it again. (To be fair, Foglio won the Best Fan Artist Hugo in 1977 and 1978. I'm sure he's got room on the shelf for a third Hugo.)
Best Semiprozine
Helix SF
Just tossin' in a little bit more nepotism here.
John W. Campbell Award (not a Hugo Award, as the committee always reminds us)
William LedBetter
The sponsored award for best new SF writer. Always remember, it is NOT a Hugo, they just bundle it with the Hugos.
So, that's what I thought was noteworthy in the 2007 world of science fiction. I'm certain I missed a ton. Let's see what makes it to the final ballot.
Despite being a member of several past WorldCons, I've never before submitted a Hugo nomination ballot, mainly because I wasn't all that interested -- I like SF but I'm more a dabbler or dilettante than hardcore about it. But this year, I have been badgered to submit, as I slightly know one candidate. Okay, that's fair, try to help a friend get on the final ballot, maybe even win. The Hugos are, after all, devastatingly cool.
So here's what I have on my nomination ballot, noting that I made no submissions whatsoever in several categories: Best Novelette, Best Short Story, Best Editor - Short Form, Best Editor - Long Form, Best Fanzine, Best Fan Writer, and Best Fan Artist. I have no ideas, so I simply am passing.
What I did submit:
Best Novel
Terry Pratchett -- Making Money
J.R.R. Tolkien -- The Children Of Húrin
J.K. Rowling -- Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows
I love Pratchett's work, and while MM isn't his best Discworld novel, it is still a pretty good one. I included Tolkien because, heck, when will I ever get another chance to nominate Tolkien? And Rowling, well, she surely won't need my vote to get on the final ballot, but sometimes it's fun to go along with the crowd.
Best Novella
Melanie Fletcher -- "Sabre Dance"
Shameless nepotism here.
Best Related Book
Phil & Kaja Foglio -- Girl Genius Vol. 6: Agatha Heterodyne And The Golden Trilobite
As with Pratchett, I absolutely love the Foglios' work, and the Girl Genius series -- which continues three times weekly on their website -- is a massive, engaging, essentially brilliant work. Whenever it is finished -- or at least, whenever this still-somewhat-introductory storyline reaches a conclusion or significant breakpoint -- it will stand as, no kidding, a masterpiece of the genre and in the field. Girl Genius is THAT good. As a work in the comic style, words and pictures, I didn't think it fit anywhere else on the ballot.
Best Dramatic Presentation, Long Form
Fantastic Four: Rise Of The Silver Surfer
Blade Runner: The Final Cut
Enchanted
Transformers
Ghost Rider
Generically this is the "movies" category but it is open to any presented works of 90 minutes or longer. I enjoyed Surfer a great deal, it was much better than the first FF film and did a respectable job of bringing the original Silver Surfer story to the silver screen. The new, allegedly final edit of Blade Runner was excellent, and just having the chance to nominate it is reason enough to nominate it. Transformers and Ghost Rider were both good fun that treated the material with suitable respect; they told good stories without being dumb or tongue-in-cheek.
Enchanted is probably the best treatment of the archetypal Disney princess tale ever done. It is witty, funny, captivating, is told well, good direction, spot-on acting by the leads, excellent songs. It is -- dare I say it? -- enchanting. I list it here proudly, as it is a genuine treat of a film that anyone can enjoy.
Best Dramatic Presentation, Short Form
Avatar: The Last Airbender -- "The Day Of Black Sun (Parts 1 & 2)"
Avatar: The Last Airbender -- "The Avatar And The Firelord"
Futurama: Bender's Big Score
TMNT
Shrek The Halls
The short form category is for productions of 90 minutes or less, so most television shows will fit in here, but anything is eligible if short enough. I know I'm skirting a bit by including the new Futurama and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles works, but they do come in under the time limit. Despite being canceled in 2003, the Futurama crew came back into action without missing a step, and it was a delight to have them back. The Turtles film was a bit silly but had some brilliant action sequences, and some of the best dramatic character interaction of the year. Avatar is a wonderful show -- my kids, 6 and 3, love it as much as I do, and follow the stories easily despite being well-detailed at times. Unfortunately, Nickelodeon is treating it dismally of late; perhaps getting some deserved recognition for this fine series will encourage the head office to shape up a bit. I picked what I thought were the two (well, three) best episodes that debuted in 2007. And the Shrek Christmas special was excellent, especially after the disappointment of the third feature film; it meshed the irascible ogre with the holiday spirit very well, and I think it's going to be a perennial in the Christmas special pantheon.
Best Professional Artist
Phil Foglio -- Girl Genius
I've already gushed at length. He's won it before, and deserves it again. (To be fair, Foglio won the Best Fan Artist Hugo in 1977 and 1978. I'm sure he's got room on the shelf for a third Hugo.)
Best Semiprozine
Helix SF
Just tossin' in a little bit more nepotism here.
John W. Campbell Award (not a Hugo Award, as the committee always reminds us)
William LedBetter
The sponsored award for best new SF writer. Always remember, it is NOT a Hugo, they just bundle it with the Hugos.
So, that's what I thought was noteworthy in the 2007 world of science fiction. I'm certain I missed a ton. Let's see what makes it to the final ballot.
Monday, January 28, 2008
Six
Our oldest, Amalie, turns six today. It's just hard to believe, despite the extremely live evidence before us. A mere six years ago, this li'l baby entered our lives and made everything that much better and more engaging.
She distributed cupcakes to her kindergarten class last Friday, her choice, as a way of giving everyone a special sendoff into the weekend. Her school has an unofficial policy that store-bought are preferred to homemade -- which struck me as a bit odd, but no matter. We procured two dozen chocolate cupcakes (with various colors of frosting, applied in the "huge swirly glob" method) at our local supermarket, and they were met with strong approval. There were even a few leftover, so the calories were available at home until Saturday. (I had hardly a nibble.)
Sunday, she got one present early, a gift card to Build-A-Bear. Val took Amie and Carson to the store, giving me a window to wrap her other presents (which I did). When they finally got home, Amie had a polka-dotted puppy with a host of accouterments, the total cost of which went well beyond the gift card's preset amount. No matter; she turns six but once.
And tonight, after school and gymnastics, she gets her big deal, the home celebration. I have to go bake a cake later, but the highlight is the present hunt. We have a young tradition of scattering (not hiding) presents around the house on birthdays, and the guest of honor has to go forth and find them all. Tonight there will be nine gifts, wrapped in purple Tinkerbell paper, for Amie to find, along with a big present that will be simply under a blanket.
We had intended to get her this thing, a Plan Toys chalet dollhouse, for Christmas, but it simply was not to be found for a reasonable price plus shipping -- so we got her a smaller, still nifty model instead, and decided to postpone the chalet for her birthday. However, when January rolled around, it still wasn't to be found, so I rummaged through Craig's List and, voila, there was one being sold for a reasonable price, and in south Austin. Turns out another couple had gotten the chalet (which comes with furniture, quite a boon) for their 2 1/2 year old for Christmas, but he just hadn't taken to it, so they offered it at a tiny discount from retail. I dropped by to check it out -- they live barely a mile and a half away -- and it was ideal, already assembled, essentially new. I gladly handed over the cash, they were happy, I was happy, and tonight Amalie gets to go nuts over it.
Six. And Carson reaches three in just two weeks. Yes, they really do grow up so fast.
She distributed cupcakes to her kindergarten class last Friday, her choice, as a way of giving everyone a special sendoff into the weekend. Her school has an unofficial policy that store-bought are preferred to homemade -- which struck me as a bit odd, but no matter. We procured two dozen chocolate cupcakes (with various colors of frosting, applied in the "huge swirly glob" method) at our local supermarket, and they were met with strong approval. There were even a few leftover, so the calories were available at home until Saturday. (I had hardly a nibble.)
Sunday, she got one present early, a gift card to Build-A-Bear. Val took Amie and Carson to the store, giving me a window to wrap her other presents (which I did). When they finally got home, Amie had a polka-dotted puppy with a host of accouterments, the total cost of which went well beyond the gift card's preset amount. No matter; she turns six but once.
And tonight, after school and gymnastics, she gets her big deal, the home celebration. I have to go bake a cake later, but the highlight is the present hunt. We have a young tradition of scattering (not hiding) presents around the house on birthdays, and the guest of honor has to go forth and find them all. Tonight there will be nine gifts, wrapped in purple Tinkerbell paper, for Amie to find, along with a big present that will be simply under a blanket.
We had intended to get her this thing, a Plan Toys chalet dollhouse, for Christmas, but it simply was not to be found for a reasonable price plus shipping -- so we got her a smaller, still nifty model instead, and decided to postpone the chalet for her birthday. However, when January rolled around, it still wasn't to be found, so I rummaged through Craig's List and, voila, there was one being sold for a reasonable price, and in south Austin. Turns out another couple had gotten the chalet (which comes with furniture, quite a boon) for their 2 1/2 year old for Christmas, but he just hadn't taken to it, so they offered it at a tiny discount from retail. I dropped by to check it out -- they live barely a mile and a half away -- and it was ideal, already assembled, essentially new. I gladly handed over the cash, they were happy, I was happy, and tonight Amalie gets to go nuts over it.
Six. And Carson reaches three in just two weeks. Yes, they really do grow up so fast.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Sunday, January 13, 2008
The Hall's 2008 Writers Ballot -- Review and Wrap-up
The Hall announced the results of the writers ballot voting on 08-January -- I'm a bit behind on closing this topic -- and congratulations to Rich "Goose" Gossage for his well-earned, and certainly overdue, election to baseball's most exclusive society and highest individual honor.
2008 HOF Voting results (543 ballots returned)
Looking ahead to the 2009 ballot, there'll be 13 holdovers -- one way or another, Rice's and John's candidacies will expire -- and among the newcomers, there's only one Sure Thing, Rickey Henderson, who is bound to deliver one of the most entertaining, and probably perplexing, induction speeches on record.
Keep stumping for Bert, and put in a good word for Raines as well. We can keep campaigning for him through 2022, but let's hope it doesn't take that long.
2008 HOF Voting results (543 ballots returned)
index - candidate - votes - % - my prediction - how'd I do?
--- ELECTED ---
1. Gossage, Goose..... 466.. 85.82....79%.. got "Elected" right.
--- not elected ---
2. Rice, Jim.......... 392.. 72.19... over 70%..... ok
3. Dawson, Andre...... 358.. 65.93... over 68%..... close
4. Blyleven, Bert..... 336.. 61.88... over 60%..... ok
5. Smith, Lee......... 235.. 43.28... 45%.......... ok
6. Morris, Jack....... 233.. 42.91... 46%.......... close
7. John, Tommy........ 158.. 29.10... ~25%......... low
8. Raines, Tim........ 132.. 24.31... 35%.......... foo!
9. McGwire, Mark...... 128.. 23.57... 29%....... a wild guess
10. Trammell, Alan..... 99.. 18.23... 19%.......... ok
11. Concepcion, Davey.. 88.. 16.21... over 20%.. high; last ballot
12. Mattingly, Don..... 86.. 15.84... 14%.......... ok
13. Parker, Dave....... 82.. 15.10... 15%.......... ok
14. Murphy, Dale....... 75.. 13.81... 15%.......... ok
15. Baines, Harold..... 28... 5.16... below 5%..... oh so close
--- relegated ---
16. Beck, Rod........... 2... 0.37... below 5%..... ok
17. Fryman, Travis...... 2... 0.37... below 5%..... ok
18. Nen, Robb........... 2... 0.37... below 5%..... ok
19. Dunston, Shawon..... 1... 0.18... below 5%..... ok
20. Finley, Chuck....... 1... 0.18... 9%........... way off
21. Justice, David...... 1... 0.18... 6%........... similar
22. Knoblauch, Chuck.... 1... 0.18... below 5%..... ok
23. Stottlemyre, Todd... 1... 0.18... 0 or 1 vote.. ok
24. Anderson, Brady..... 0... 0.00... below 5%..... ok
25. Rijo, Jose.......... 0... 0.00... 2 votes...... high
I don't want to hash over my predictions but a little; they weren't that hard -- voting trends are easy enough to spot -- and Raines was the only ballot newcomer who was worthy of any attention by the voters. I thought they'd show Finley and Justice a little more love, but no, and that doesn't upset me.
All of the other ten ballot newcomers were relegated, and Concepcion's eligibility has now expired, so that clears a lot of deadwood from the 2009 ballot. I'm amazed Baines hung on yet again -- he actually got one vote less than last time, and had no room to spare, but he's bound to fall off soon.
Turning to the other interesting candidates:
McGwire got the exact same vote total as in 2007, so it wasn't a one-time rebuke. The controversy surrounding him and his career will keep his Hall candidacy a continuing enigma for the next few years. As other steroid-suspect players reach the ballot, a sea change may yet come, but there is no way to predict at this early stage.
Raines deserves much higher returns -- heck, he deserves election -- so here's hoping this was a one-time "no first ballot for Rock" response and his 2009 return shows a promising, large jump. (Really, waging the Bert PR campaign is hard enough.)
John has one year left. Don't hope for much.
Morris' candidacy makes people stupid -- or perhaps "emotional" is a better description. No matter how his career is studied, the Hall-worthiness just isn't there unless one desperately wants to see it, in which case it's obvious and the rest of us are blind morons. It really gets tiresome.
Blyleven took a nice jump (+14.2 percentage points) so, we can hope, the ball is rolling toward the deserved bronze plaque at last. Bert 2009! Bert 2010! Come on already!
Dawson's gonna make it, probably by 2010.
Rice has one year left, but he'll get it. Just elect him already. Like Morris, the Hall-worthiness is there if you really, really want to see it. Bleah; the treacle in the articles and columns a year from now is going to be troweled on knee-deep.
And the Goose, at last, bringing in the biggest jump on the ballot, +14.6 percentage points. His inclusion raises the bar on what makes a reliever/closer Hall-class, and this is a good thing.Looking ahead to the 2009 ballot, there'll be 13 holdovers -- one way or another, Rice's and John's candidacies will expire -- and among the newcomers, there's only one Sure Thing, Rickey Henderson, who is bound to deliver one of the most entertaining, and probably perplexing, induction speeches on record.
Keep stumping for Bert, and put in a good word for Raines as well. We can keep campaigning for him through 2022, but let's hope it doesn't take that long.
Wednesday, January 09, 2008
And Mom and Dad can hardly wait for school to start again.
For this mom and dad, the wait is over. The kids' holiday (i.e., Christmas; I honestly have no preference for the semantics here) break began Friday, 21-December-2007, and ended when Amalie returned to class yesterday (Tuesday 08-January-2008), with Carson resuming his taxing daycare curriculum today.
It was a very good break indeed.
On that first Friday, Amalie had a class at Central Market's cooking school -- decorating her own gingerbread house. Her results were lovely, and we couldn't bring ourselves to so much as touch it.
On Saturday 12/22, Amalie and I made a huge double batch of toll house cookies, making the entire house smell sweetly caloric. On Sunday, Carson and I visited a few friends I hadn't seen in a while, handing out festive tins of the cookies along with cards. It's not something I do often enough, really.
Christmas Day itself was an exciting but leisurely affair. Val and I actually got in some sleep this time, and everyone woke up within ten minutes of each other. The easy chairs in the family room caught Amie's eye, each stacked with gifts, so after quickly sorting out which chair was for her and which was for Carson, away they went. We impose a not-very-strict "one gift at a time, take turns" policy, so it took some time to empty both chairs, followed by a tactical strike by the kids on their stockings (unusual, as the stockings are usually last -- one year we didn't get to them until the 26th -- but we don't usually start in the family room anyway). After that frenzy was over, we broke for breakfast and phone calls, then turned to the tree in the front room. Amalie can guess-read tags, so she was in charge of first distribution (the grownups validated her interpretations) for a while. One large pile of wrapped gifts slowly gave way to four smaller piles of goodies and one tsunami of crumpled paper and ribbons. We did finish before sundown (and this is not because of the sheer volume of stuff -- this was a notably smaller hoard than in years past; but taking turns also takes time). Lunchtime sort of breezed by, with Val providing a snack tray, and around dinnertime no one was hungry, as our Christmases tend to inspire day-long munching of both goodies and conscientiously nutritious stuffs, and the general adrenaline rush just pushes everyone along as well. Finally, we returned to the stockings, and Val and I emptied ours. I found (hadn't paid attention earlier) that I also had a tiny bonus stocking, with moose on it, in which was a small chocolate bar (dark chocolate, of course).
A brief and incomplete summary of the haul:
Amalie: a hand-held game cartridge system, a scooter, dolls and doll clothes and things, a large dollhouse (not for Barbies), some games, and a pink-handled small Swiss Army knife. And a selection of DVD movies, heavily weighted toward Disney Princess material.
Carson: cars -- oh man, lots and lots of cars, Hot Wheels, Matchbox, Tonka, Pixar Cars movie cars, two giant carriers trucks. Hot Wheels track (plain, basic stuff found on eBay, not some tricked-out, branded set all the stores carry). Two RC cars, the noises of which scare him (luckily one has a mute switch). A kid-sized basketball hoop. A Pixar Cars toybox/bench. Larger sweat pants and socks, since he's growing like a weed. And a selection of DVD movies.
Val: an air compressor, pajamas, the traditional Iditarod medallion for 2008, the similarly traditional tiny (four sweets) box of Godiva chocolates (devoured by the whole family in a record two minutes), a laser level (nothing says "I love you" like power tools), and a selection of DVD movies.
me: Red Sox championship card sets, a couple of baseball books (I always get some), two commemorative baseballs, moccasins, a Rubik's new thingie the kids have already confiscated, some hand tools, several kitchen cooking widgets (egg separator, new measuring cups, chopsticks with holders, etc.), and a selection of DVD movies, including the 2007 World Series.
On the 27th, rested and ready, we ventured forth (at 4:00 pm...) toward Mississippi to visit Val's sister Jenny and her husband Dickie Joe. It's a long hike, just short of 600 miles, and even with an early start it makes for a very long day, so on the trip out (we go at least once a year) we plan on one night's stay somewhere. This time it was Beaumont, Texas, almost to the state line; we could have gone further but the kids were tired, and it's not fair to push them to keep traveling without need. We made decent time, mainly because driving through Houston was rather quiet, being holiday time. We set out the next day before 9:00 am (rather amazing, that) but it was slow going -- our breakfast stop ran longer than it should, as we built in a play stop at a very nice park in Jennings, Louisiana. This wasn't as much fun as we'd hoped, owing to heavy rains the night before leaving plenty of puddles, but the kids romped well. Just before leaving, I pulled off the road for a restroom stop, and this was a mistake -- just off the road was quite muddy, and I ignorantly got the car completely off the road by about four inches, which was just enough to mire it down. Four inches! I got out to push, Val took the wheel, but we'd have been there longer were it not for a passing local who understood our issue and offered to help push. Working together, we were back on the road in five seconds; I thanked him dearly, he just nodded graciously, and we were all on our way again. There's still some mud on the front fender where the right side front wheel was kicking it up in futility. Later, some breakdowns on a bridge also slowed things down; what should have been a six-hour drive stretched into almost ten. But we made it at last.
Visiting Jenny and Dickie Joe on their ranch is always relaxing. It is roomy, quiet, they are wonderful hosts, and there are cows to look at. The front pasture, this time, was home to only two bovines, a pair of black Angus bulls they'd bought for breeding in the spring. Both were under two years old, and though they were a bit trepidacious of us, when we watched feeding time from afar they acted like puppies, running and bouncing in delight. This is very entertaining behavior when performed by 1200 pound animals.
Our first full night in Mississippi, there was a tremendous thunderstorm, real roof-rattling, rolling thunderclaps. Some were sufficiently close to be full-fledged booms. I went out on the porch to watch for a bit -- the rain wasn't very heavy, curiously -- and happened to be looking in the right direction to see a direct strike, the clap of which hit me (and I mean hit me) in about 1.5 seconds, so that was plenty close. The storm finally passed sometime after midnight.
We spent one afternoon touring some of the coastline near Gulfport, which had been ravaged by Katrina in 2005. It is slowly recovering; sobering and encouraging at once.
We took our leave early on January 1, hoping that the drunkards were off the roads by now. Since we don't have to worry about arriving too late when getting home, we try to go for the one-day push, and we made it. Houston again gave us little problem, and since New Year's Day is an out-and-about type of holiday, there was no problems finding restaurants. A long and tiring day, but getting home makes it worthwhile.
Val returned to work later in the week, leaving me in charge of the kids for another few days. We ran a few errands, but otherwise finished out the school break in humdrum fashion at home.
School's back in session. Amalie got her second period report card, identical to the first.
It was a very good break indeed.
On that first Friday, Amalie had a class at Central Market's cooking school -- decorating her own gingerbread house. Her results were lovely, and we couldn't bring ourselves to so much as touch it.
On Saturday 12/22, Amalie and I made a huge double batch of toll house cookies, making the entire house smell sweetly caloric. On Sunday, Carson and I visited a few friends I hadn't seen in a while, handing out festive tins of the cookies along with cards. It's not something I do often enough, really.
Christmas Day itself was an exciting but leisurely affair. Val and I actually got in some sleep this time, and everyone woke up within ten minutes of each other. The easy chairs in the family room caught Amie's eye, each stacked with gifts, so after quickly sorting out which chair was for her and which was for Carson, away they went. We impose a not-very-strict "one gift at a time, take turns" policy, so it took some time to empty both chairs, followed by a tactical strike by the kids on their stockings (unusual, as the stockings are usually last -- one year we didn't get to them until the 26th -- but we don't usually start in the family room anyway). After that frenzy was over, we broke for breakfast and phone calls, then turned to the tree in the front room. Amalie can guess-read tags, so she was in charge of first distribution (the grownups validated her interpretations) for a while. One large pile of wrapped gifts slowly gave way to four smaller piles of goodies and one tsunami of crumpled paper and ribbons. We did finish before sundown (and this is not because of the sheer volume of stuff -- this was a notably smaller hoard than in years past; but taking turns also takes time). Lunchtime sort of breezed by, with Val providing a snack tray, and around dinnertime no one was hungry, as our Christmases tend to inspire day-long munching of both goodies and conscientiously nutritious stuffs, and the general adrenaline rush just pushes everyone along as well. Finally, we returned to the stockings, and Val and I emptied ours. I found (hadn't paid attention earlier) that I also had a tiny bonus stocking, with moose on it, in which was a small chocolate bar (dark chocolate, of course).
A brief and incomplete summary of the haul:
Amalie: a hand-held game cartridge system, a scooter, dolls and doll clothes and things, a large dollhouse (not for Barbies), some games, and a pink-handled small Swiss Army knife. And a selection of DVD movies, heavily weighted toward Disney Princess material.
Carson: cars -- oh man, lots and lots of cars, Hot Wheels, Matchbox, Tonka, Pixar Cars movie cars, two giant carriers trucks. Hot Wheels track (plain, basic stuff found on eBay, not some tricked-out, branded set all the stores carry). Two RC cars, the noises of which scare him (luckily one has a mute switch). A kid-sized basketball hoop. A Pixar Cars toybox/bench. Larger sweat pants and socks, since he's growing like a weed. And a selection of DVD movies.
Val: an air compressor, pajamas, the traditional Iditarod medallion for 2008, the similarly traditional tiny (four sweets) box of Godiva chocolates (devoured by the whole family in a record two minutes), a laser level (nothing says "I love you" like power tools), and a selection of DVD movies.
me: Red Sox championship card sets, a couple of baseball books (I always get some), two commemorative baseballs, moccasins, a Rubik's new thingie the kids have already confiscated, some hand tools, several kitchen cooking widgets (egg separator, new measuring cups, chopsticks with holders, etc.), and a selection of DVD movies, including the 2007 World Series.
On the 27th, rested and ready, we ventured forth (at 4:00 pm...) toward Mississippi to visit Val's sister Jenny and her husband Dickie Joe. It's a long hike, just short of 600 miles, and even with an early start it makes for a very long day, so on the trip out (we go at least once a year) we plan on one night's stay somewhere. This time it was Beaumont, Texas, almost to the state line; we could have gone further but the kids were tired, and it's not fair to push them to keep traveling without need. We made decent time, mainly because driving through Houston was rather quiet, being holiday time. We set out the next day before 9:00 am (rather amazing, that) but it was slow going -- our breakfast stop ran longer than it should, as we built in a play stop at a very nice park in Jennings, Louisiana. This wasn't as much fun as we'd hoped, owing to heavy rains the night before leaving plenty of puddles, but the kids romped well. Just before leaving, I pulled off the road for a restroom stop, and this was a mistake -- just off the road was quite muddy, and I ignorantly got the car completely off the road by about four inches, which was just enough to mire it down. Four inches! I got out to push, Val took the wheel, but we'd have been there longer were it not for a passing local who understood our issue and offered to help push. Working together, we were back on the road in five seconds; I thanked him dearly, he just nodded graciously, and we were all on our way again. There's still some mud on the front fender where the right side front wheel was kicking it up in futility. Later, some breakdowns on a bridge also slowed things down; what should have been a six-hour drive stretched into almost ten. But we made it at last.
Visiting Jenny and Dickie Joe on their ranch is always relaxing. It is roomy, quiet, they are wonderful hosts, and there are cows to look at. The front pasture, this time, was home to only two bovines, a pair of black Angus bulls they'd bought for breeding in the spring. Both were under two years old, and though they were a bit trepidacious of us, when we watched feeding time from afar they acted like puppies, running and bouncing in delight. This is very entertaining behavior when performed by 1200 pound animals.
Our first full night in Mississippi, there was a tremendous thunderstorm, real roof-rattling, rolling thunderclaps. Some were sufficiently close to be full-fledged booms. I went out on the porch to watch for a bit -- the rain wasn't very heavy, curiously -- and happened to be looking in the right direction to see a direct strike, the clap of which hit me (and I mean hit me) in about 1.5 seconds, so that was plenty close. The storm finally passed sometime after midnight.
We spent one afternoon touring some of the coastline near Gulfport, which had been ravaged by Katrina in 2005. It is slowly recovering; sobering and encouraging at once.
We took our leave early on January 1, hoping that the drunkards were off the roads by now. Since we don't have to worry about arriving too late when getting home, we try to go for the one-day push, and we made it. Houston again gave us little problem, and since New Year's Day is an out-and-about type of holiday, there was no problems finding restaurants. A long and tiring day, but getting home makes it worthwhile.
Val returned to work later in the week, leaving me in charge of the kids for another few days. We ran a few errands, but otherwise finished out the school break in humdrum fashion at home.
School's back in session. Amalie got her second period report card, identical to the first.
And there was much rejoicing...
The birth certificates came back today, intact, undamaged, and this coming from a bureaucracy, in separate envelopes.
Unusual envelopes, too -- large, brown, 9.5" x 12" envelopes, but with the flap on the long side (and no brad), and taped shut with one, quite long, extra-wide piece of tape, perfectly placed. Either the taping is done mechanically or the passport department has at least one person who has dedicated his or her life to mastering the zen of envelope taping. Being a civil service of the government, could be either.
Happy ending -- we got the passports and the birth certificates in impressively quick time.
Unusual envelopes, too -- large, brown, 9.5" x 12" envelopes, but with the flap on the long side (and no brad), and taped shut with one, quite long, extra-wide piece of tape, perfectly placed. Either the taping is done mechanically or the passport department has at least one person who has dedicated his or her life to mastering the zen of envelope taping. Being a civil service of the government, could be either.
Happy ending -- we got the passports and the birth certificates in impressively quick time.
Monday, January 07, 2008
Passports redux
In my recent post about applying for passports for the kids, I didn't really harp on the return time -- quoted as 4 to 6 weeks, with horror stories of 10 to 13. With the cruise scheduled for March, I had the occasional frightening vision of waiting for the postman with the car running, hoping for one last delivery with the documents before dashing for Galveston. Would we suffer such a nailbiter?
No. Both passports arrived today -- turned around in under three weeks, and ones with several holidays included. While I expect this is because the background checks on a five-year-old and a two-year-old are trivial ("So, kid -- tossing spitballs in nursery school, eh? Did ten minutes of hard timeout for that one, I see. Hope you learned your lesson."), credit where it's due -- the DOS served its actions in impressive time.
Now if only their birth certificates make it back as well.
No. Both passports arrived today -- turned around in under three weeks, and ones with several holidays included. While I expect this is because the background checks on a five-year-old and a two-year-old are trivial ("So, kid -- tossing spitballs in nursery school, eh? Did ten minutes of hard timeout for that one, I see. Hope you learned your lesson."), credit where it's due -- the DOS served its actions in impressive time.
Now if only their birth certificates make it back as well.
Friday, December 21, 2007
Passports
My folks are offering (threatening, really, as they've been wanting to do this for years) to take us on a cruise in the Gulf of Mexico next year -- and since Amalie is now in public school, we plan on taking her spring break week in March, though if she had to miss a week of kindergarten I really wouldn't worry too much. Anyway, the plan is underway, and thanks to a bunch of idiots a few years ago coupled with way too much bureaucratic overreaction, even our children now need passports. Ah, brave new world, indeed.
And the lead time takes longer than ever before too. Gotta love that "smaller government" that the Bush administration claimed it would deliver.
We visited the AAA office last week and got the kids' portraits shots taken, which was a much longer experience than it should have been, but finally completed. Then I picked up the forms at the post office -- and promptly dropped them in a puddle later that day. sigh. Picked up new ones a few days ago, and filled them out this morning. Despite being six pages long, only two pages actually require information, and even then it's pretty basic stuff -- name, addy, DOB, parental info, the usual drivel. I did have to stand up the kids and measure their heights, which was about as far afield as the data collection went.
Off to the local USPO, where the hours are soooo convenient: 10:00 am to 1:00 pm, and 1:30 pm to 3:00 pm. Apparently, these are State Department requirements, though how these insanely restrictive windows serve the public good is a complete mystery. We had to wait for another customer to finish, and finally got our turn.
Now, remember, the passport application is six pages long, four pages of which are rather dense instructions, caveats, warnings, and the rest of the typical legal blather. With so many trees laying down their carbon dioxide-converting lives for this cause, wouldn't one think that all details, at least the fairly common ones, would be covered? Sure, but that's because we're rational people and don't work for the government.
Missing detail #1: Val, being a working mom, couldn't attend this little paper-processing ceremony, but the DOS is good enough to allow for a notarized statement of permission to cover this matter. Yesterday I had her type up a simple, two-line statement, print it out at work, and have the in-house notary take care of the legal bit (many large employers have an in-house notary). Even printed and notarized two copies just to be sure, with the kids' full names, in CAPITALS. The agent read the statement, and expressed concern that, since we hadn't included Amalie's and Carson's dates of birth, their might be delays. Um, okay, but... well... since the application did not mention, anywhere, exactly what information this notarized statement should include, how the hell important could that be? "Well, it could cause delays..." -- this really was not helpful. I decided to take the risk rather than waste more time on our end re-doing this little statement, as our kids have quite distinctive names that would be hard to confuse. But why the fark cannot the entire State Department bother getting this little detail -- dates of birth -- on this massive form? Thanks a lot, Condi. Medal of Freedom coming up for you, girl.
Missing detail #2. I had smartly brought along the kids' Social Security cards and birth certificates. The agent said I had to include the certificates in the application package. Um, what? Those are the only copies I have! "Not to worry, you'll get them back, separate from the passports of course." There was no choice in this matter, and again, surrender of birth certificates is mentioned nowhere on this huge, six-page portfolio. Why isn't this mentioned, State Department? Why are we paying these peoples' salaries? Oh, right -- in the Bushist government, incompetence is a virtue.
Feh.
But wait! The crowning touch -- thankfully I was allowed to pay by personal check. Actually, by three checks -- two different checks, each for $52, made out to "Department of State", one for each application, and another for $60 to the US Postmaster, some mandated service fee (at least I got to cover this with one check, as it does break down to $30 per application).
I don't see where anyone, ever, gets the notion that government can be run like a streamlined corporation. Well, other than through outright lying, always popular in political circles. Government isn't intended to be a for-profit enterprise, and no one yet has ever offered a servicable plan for limiting the bloat. It probably could be done in limited circumstances, but no one much in position to do something about it finds it in their interests to do so. And so, we have six-page forms and need three different checks.
I hope this cruise is worth the preparatory nonsense.
And the lead time takes longer than ever before too. Gotta love that "smaller government" that the Bush administration claimed it would deliver.
We visited the AAA office last week and got the kids' portraits shots taken, which was a much longer experience than it should have been, but finally completed. Then I picked up the forms at the post office -- and promptly dropped them in a puddle later that day. sigh. Picked up new ones a few days ago, and filled them out this morning. Despite being six pages long, only two pages actually require information, and even then it's pretty basic stuff -- name, addy, DOB, parental info, the usual drivel. I did have to stand up the kids and measure their heights, which was about as far afield as the data collection went.
Off to the local USPO, where the hours are soooo convenient: 10:00 am to 1:00 pm, and 1:30 pm to 3:00 pm. Apparently, these are State Department requirements, though how these insanely restrictive windows serve the public good is a complete mystery. We had to wait for another customer to finish, and finally got our turn.
Now, remember, the passport application is six pages long, four pages of which are rather dense instructions, caveats, warnings, and the rest of the typical legal blather. With so many trees laying down their carbon dioxide-converting lives for this cause, wouldn't one think that all details, at least the fairly common ones, would be covered? Sure, but that's because we're rational people and don't work for the government.
Missing detail #1: Val, being a working mom, couldn't attend this little paper-processing ceremony, but the DOS is good enough to allow for a notarized statement of permission to cover this matter. Yesterday I had her type up a simple, two-line statement, print it out at work, and have the in-house notary take care of the legal bit (many large employers have an in-house notary). Even printed and notarized two copies just to be sure, with the kids' full names, in CAPITALS. The agent read the statement, and expressed concern that, since we hadn't included Amalie's and Carson's dates of birth, their might be delays. Um, okay, but... well... since the application did not mention, anywhere, exactly what information this notarized statement should include, how the hell important could that be? "Well, it could cause delays..." -- this really was not helpful. I decided to take the risk rather than waste more time on our end re-doing this little statement, as our kids have quite distinctive names that would be hard to confuse. But why the fark cannot the entire State Department bother getting this little detail -- dates of birth -- on this massive form? Thanks a lot, Condi. Medal of Freedom coming up for you, girl.
Missing detail #2. I had smartly brought along the kids' Social Security cards and birth certificates. The agent said I had to include the certificates in the application package. Um, what? Those are the only copies I have! "Not to worry, you'll get them back, separate from the passports of course." There was no choice in this matter, and again, surrender of birth certificates is mentioned nowhere on this huge, six-page portfolio. Why isn't this mentioned, State Department? Why are we paying these peoples' salaries? Oh, right -- in the Bushist government, incompetence is a virtue.
Feh.
But wait! The crowning touch -- thankfully I was allowed to pay by personal check. Actually, by three checks -- two different checks, each for $52, made out to "Department of State", one for each application, and another for $60 to the US Postmaster, some mandated service fee (at least I got to cover this with one check, as it does break down to $30 per application).
I don't see where anyone, ever, gets the notion that government can be run like a streamlined corporation. Well, other than through outright lying, always popular in political circles. Government isn't intended to be a for-profit enterprise, and no one yet has ever offered a servicable plan for limiting the bloat. It probably could be done in limited circumstances, but no one much in position to do something about it finds it in their interests to do so. And so, we have six-page forms and need three different checks.
I hope this cruise is worth the preparatory nonsense.
Monday, December 03, 2007
The Hall's New Veterans Committee -- The Results
The Hall Of Fame has announced the results from the two ballots considered by different delegations of the revamped Veterans Committee. Electors are limited to no more than four votes among the ten candidates per ballot. Different electorates vote on each ballot.
Managers & Umpires (12 of 16, 75%, needed for election)
Interesting that the Hall now uses a "less than" mimimum return, which I suppose is a face-saving gesture for the bottom down-ballot candidates, as a return of zero really is very dismissive. Looking at the votes, and noting that each elector was limited to four votes maximum, 58 of a possible 64 votes on the M&U ballot, and 44 of a possible 48 votes on the Executives ballot, are accountable. If every vote was cast, that leaves six votes for the four M&U candidates and four votes for the three Executives candidates who went indeterminately reported. So there's a good chance someone, or more than one, did get zero votes. I think it is irresponsible of the Hall not to specify those downballot returns, but I suppose it isn't that important. Maybe this "less than three votes" notation is a way of backhandedly indicating that these candidates won't be on the ballot again any time soon (and reviewing the seven names, I don't think this sort of unofficial relegation would be a bad thing, at least for one cycle of the ballots).
Congratulations to the five newest Hall Of Famers, of whom only Williams is alive to appreciate the honor. I supported Southworth and (wanly) O'Malley already, so those are, to me, sound selections. I have no real objections to the elections of Williams and Dreyfuss. And among my choices not elected, I feel little disappointment for Harvey, Murtaugh, Johnson, or Kauffman.
The election of Kuhn does nothing to improve the Hall's execution of its mission. His administration was lengthy and effected some good changes to the great game, but he had more liabilities than assets. The Hall was not a lesser repository and chronicler of baseball history without him.
The omission of Marvin Miller is a sore point, though I cannot summon genuine outrage because the composition of the voting committee was so obviously stacked against his candidacy. The Hall does suffer for Miller's absence; among off-field personnel, he is one of the two or three biggest influences across all of baseball history. Not honoring the person responsible for that sort of enormous impact is detrimental to the entire institution. Perhaps the Hall board, when appointing the voting committee for executives next time (2009), will take this into consideration and compose a more equitable electorate.
An update -- the Executives ballot was composed by the same committee members who ultimately voted on that ballot. The Hall hadn't made this readily apparent before, or if so I simply missed it. This strikes me as somewhat fishy (although the Hall can, and does, charter these things however it wants), as one thing the final vote does is shine brighter light on the election agenda of some subset of the committee -- the entire process appears to be for show. The Hall board should know better -- and in fact, it does -- and I'd rather not go down the pathway of conspiracies, but electing Kuhn does help pave the way for eventually electing sitting Commissioner Selig, and right now I'm not at all sure if I'd support his candidacy. But, no doubt, he's got friends. Such a two-iterative ballot process should use separate delegations.
Managers & Umpires (12 of 16, 75%, needed for election)
rank candidate...........votes..percentage
1t. Billy Southworth* (M)...13 81.3% -- ELECTED
1t. Dick Williams (M).......13 81.3% -- ELECTED
3t. Doug Harvey* (U)........11 68.8%
3t. Whitey Herzog (M).......11 68.8%
5. Danny Murtaugh* (M).......6 37.5%
6. Hank O'Day (U)............4 25.0%
7t. Davey Johnson* (M)......<3 ≤12.5%
7t. Billy Martin (M)........<3 ≤12.5%
7t. Gene Mauch (M)..........<3 ≤12.5%
7t. Cy Rigler (U)...........<3 ≤12.5%
* Candidates for whom I would have voted.
Executives (9 of 12, 75%, needed for election)
rank candidate.....votes..percentage
1t. Barney Dreyfuss....10 83.3% -- ELECTED
1t. Bowie Kuhn.........10 83.3% -- ELECTED
3. Walter O'Malley*.....9 75.0% -- ELECTED
4. Ewing Kauffman*......5 41.7%
5. John Fetzer..........4 33.3%
6t. Bob Howsam..........3 25.0%
6t. Marvin Miller*......3 25.0%
8t. Buzzie Bavasi......<3 ≤16.7%
8t. John McHale........<3 ≤16.7%
8t. Gabe Paul..........<3 ≤16.7%
Interesting that the Hall now uses a "less than" mimimum return, which I suppose is a face-saving gesture for the bottom down-ballot candidates, as a return of zero really is very dismissive. Looking at the votes, and noting that each elector was limited to four votes maximum, 58 of a possible 64 votes on the M&U ballot, and 44 of a possible 48 votes on the Executives ballot, are accountable. If every vote was cast, that leaves six votes for the four M&U candidates and four votes for the three Executives candidates who went indeterminately reported. So there's a good chance someone, or more than one, did get zero votes. I think it is irresponsible of the Hall not to specify those downballot returns, but I suppose it isn't that important. Maybe this "less than three votes" notation is a way of backhandedly indicating that these candidates won't be on the ballot again any time soon (and reviewing the seven names, I don't think this sort of unofficial relegation would be a bad thing, at least for one cycle of the ballots).
Congratulations to the five newest Hall Of Famers, of whom only Williams is alive to appreciate the honor. I supported Southworth and (wanly) O'Malley already, so those are, to me, sound selections. I have no real objections to the elections of Williams and Dreyfuss. And among my choices not elected, I feel little disappointment for Harvey, Murtaugh, Johnson, or Kauffman.
The election of Kuhn does nothing to improve the Hall's execution of its mission. His administration was lengthy and effected some good changes to the great game, but he had more liabilities than assets. The Hall was not a lesser repository and chronicler of baseball history without him.
The omission of Marvin Miller is a sore point, though I cannot summon genuine outrage because the composition of the voting committee was so obviously stacked against his candidacy. The Hall does suffer for Miller's absence; among off-field personnel, he is one of the two or three biggest influences across all of baseball history. Not honoring the person responsible for that sort of enormous impact is detrimental to the entire institution. Perhaps the Hall board, when appointing the voting committee for executives next time (2009), will take this into consideration and compose a more equitable electorate.
An update -- the Executives ballot was composed by the same committee members who ultimately voted on that ballot. The Hall hadn't made this readily apparent before, or if so I simply missed it. This strikes me as somewhat fishy (although the Hall can, and does, charter these things however it wants), as one thing the final vote does is shine brighter light on the election agenda of some subset of the committee -- the entire process appears to be for show. The Hall board should know better -- and in fact, it does -- and I'd rather not go down the pathway of conspiracies, but electing Kuhn does help pave the way for eventually electing sitting Commissioner Selig, and right now I'm not at all sure if I'd support his candidacy. But, no doubt, he's got friends. Such a two-iterative ballot process should use separate delegations.
Sunday, December 02, 2007
The Hall's 2008 Writers Ballot -- Wrap-up
A link set so one can read the entire ballot review without a lot of scrolling down and up again.
The Hall's 2008 Writers Ballot
Introduction
Candidates Part 1 (Anderson, Baines, Beck, Blyleven, Concepcíon, Dawson)
Candidates Part 2 (Dunston, Finley, Fryman, Gossage, John, Justice)
Candidates Part 3 (Knoblauch, Mattingly, McGwire, Morris, Murphy, Nen)
Candidates Part 4 (Parker, Raines, Rice, Rijo, Smith, Stottlemyre, Trammell)
Chipmaker's votes: Blyleven, Gossage, McGwire, Murphy, Raines.
Predictions
Anderson -- below 5%, relegated.
Baines -- below 5%, relegated.
Beck -- below 5%, relegated.
Blyleven -- over 60%.
Concepcíon -- slightly over 20%, and his writers ballot candidacy expires.
Dawson -- over 68%.
Dunston -- below 5%, relegated.
Finley -- 9%.
Fryman -- below 5%, relegated.
Gossage -- 79%, and elected!
John -- around 25%.
Justice -- 6%.
Knoblauch -- below 5%, relegated.
Mattingly -- 14%.
McGwire -- 29%, but this is a complete guess. Has enough blood been spilled?
Morris -- 46%.
Murphy -- 15%.
Nen -- below 5%, relegated.
Parker -- 15%.
Raines -- 35%, though I hope I aimed low.
Rice -- over 70% but just not enough.
Rijo -- two votes, relegated.
Smith -- 45%.
Stottlemyre -- zero or one vote, relegated.
Trammell -- 19%.
That's it, baseball fans. The writers ballot results are announced Tuesday, January 8, at 2:00 pm Eastern. Check back then to see how we did.
The Hall's 2008 Writers Ballot
Introduction
Candidates Part 1 (Anderson, Baines, Beck, Blyleven, Concepcíon, Dawson)
Candidates Part 2 (Dunston, Finley, Fryman, Gossage, John, Justice)
Candidates Part 3 (Knoblauch, Mattingly, McGwire, Morris, Murphy, Nen)
Candidates Part 4 (Parker, Raines, Rice, Rijo, Smith, Stottlemyre, Trammell)
Chipmaker's votes: Blyleven, Gossage, McGwire, Murphy, Raines.
Predictions
Anderson -- below 5%, relegated.
Baines -- below 5%, relegated.
Beck -- below 5%, relegated.
Blyleven -- over 60%.
Concepcíon -- slightly over 20%, and his writers ballot candidacy expires.
Dawson -- over 68%.
Dunston -- below 5%, relegated.
Finley -- 9%.
Fryman -- below 5%, relegated.
Gossage -- 79%, and elected!
John -- around 25%.
Justice -- 6%.
Knoblauch -- below 5%, relegated.
Mattingly -- 14%.
McGwire -- 29%, but this is a complete guess. Has enough blood been spilled?
Morris -- 46%.
Murphy -- 15%.
Nen -- below 5%, relegated.
Parker -- 15%.
Raines -- 35%, though I hope I aimed low.
Rice -- over 70% but just not enough.
Rijo -- two votes, relegated.
Smith -- 45%.
Stottlemyre -- zero or one vote, relegated.
Trammell -- 19%.
That's it, baseball fans. The writers ballot results are announced Tuesday, January 8, at 2:00 pm Eastern. Check back then to see how we did.
Saturday, December 01, 2007
The Hall's 2008 Writers Ballot -- The Player Candidates, Part 4
Finishing up the player candidates on the writers ballot.
19. Dave Parker
Years on ballot: 11.
Peak return: 24.5% (1998).
2007 return: 11.4%
Career: 19 seasons (1973-91) with the *Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds, Oakland Athletics, Milwaukee Brewers, California Angels, and Toronto Blue Jays.
Peak season: 1978 -- 102 runs, 194 hits, 32 doubles, 12 triples, 30 HR, 117 RBI, 20 stolen bases, .334/.394/.585, 166 OPS+, 134 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1975, 1977, 1979, 1985.
Primary position: right field, though he finished up (3 1/2 seasons) as a designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: seven All-Star selections (four starts), 1978 NL MVP, 1979 All-Star Game MVP, three NL Gold Gloves for Outfield, three Silver Sluggers (two NL for Outfield, one AL for DH), two NL batting championships, led the NL in slugging twice, hits once, RBI once. Member of two World Series champions, the 1979 Pirates and the 1989 Athletics.
Parker's peak was fantastic, but it was over quickly -- he fell off a cliff between 1979 and 1980, and except for one resurgent season (1985) never saw those heady heights again. Maybe it was the cocaine, which Parker was known to have a problem with at the time. The Cobra was, for those late-70s seasons, a stunningly powerful hitter, and if he deprived us the fans of seeing all he could have done because of drug abuse, well, I'm not very sympathetic. Bad choices can have bad consequences.
Parker is one of the few players, perhaps the only player, to win an All-Star Game MVP because of his defense. He made two brilliant throws from deep right field in 1979, nailing Rice at third trying to stretch a double, and Downing at home, who would have scored the go-ahead run. A sterling performance, but one game does not make a career Hall-class.
Very good fielder and, for a short time, a fantastic hitter. But the last 2/3 of his career was league average; when we should have been blown away, he blew it.
Utterly irrelevant to his Hall candidacy, but I've always loved this Sports Illustrated cover, the 09-April-1979 issue, with the defending MVPs standing back to back. Rice is a big guy, 6'2", and the way he is looking up at Parker was, to me, an indelible image. Rice is big, but Parker is huge.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: 15%, but he's going nowhere.
20. Tim Raines
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 23 seasons (1979-99, 2001-02) with the *Montréal Expos, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Baltimore Orioles, and Florida Marlins.
Peak season: 1987 -- 123 runs, 175 hits, 34 doubles, 18 HR, 68 RBI, 50 stolen bases (against five caught steals!), 90 walks, .330/.429/.526, 149 OPS+, 132 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1984, 1985, 1986, 1989, 1993.
Primary position: left field. Leadoff hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: seven All-Star selections (two starts), 1987 All-Star Game MVP, one NL Silver Slugger for Outfield, one NL batting championship, led NL in on-base percentage once, runs twice, stolen bases four times. Career 84.7% stolen base success rate is the highest for anyone with 300+ SB; 808 career SB ranks fifth all-time, with no one threatening passing any time soon. One of only two fathers to play alongside his son in a major league game (the other being Ken Griffey, Sr., and I'm not yet counting out Roger Clemens doing it). Member of the 1996 and 1998 World Series champion Yankees. Jersey #30 retired by the Expos.
Bonus baseball points: Raines was a coach for the 2005 World Series champion White Sox. There's only so much credit one can appoint to a coach, but he was there.
Esoteric baseball bonus points: Raines was the last active player (thanks to grandfathering players active before 1983) to wear a batting helmet without the ear flap. (Yes, Julio Franco is still active, but he has always worn flap-style helmets.)
Rock was one of the most brilliant leadoff men in baseball history, though it's hard to appreciate that since he played exactly contemporary with the greatest leadoff man in history, Rickey Henderson. His peak was masterful, and realize that his 1987 season didn't begin until May 2, since the Collusion conspiracy prevented him from signing elsewhere, and the silly re-signing regulations prevented him from returning to the Expos until May. But when he did, he picked right up and stormed the NL all season (Raines played 139 games). He had a long, slow decline, being a useful player for the rest of his career and an above-league average one for all but two seasons, one when he was suffering from lupus (and missed the next season altogether) and his last, tired gasp in Miami. Raines played like 93% of Henderson his entire career, and that definitely deserves the eternal bronze plaque.
Besides, Rock and Dawson are the last chances for an Expos cap logo to adorn a plaque.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes! And proud to cast it.
Prediction: Raines is a tough candidate to forecast. Some writers will like him, others will not (there's usually a small "never on the first ballot, never unanimous" faction), still others simply won't yet have seen the light. I think he gets elected eventually, but not this year, so I'll go with 35%, and I truly hope I've aimed low.
21. Jim Rice
Years on ballot: 13.
Peak return: 64.8% (2006).
2007 return: 63.5%
Career: 16 seasons (1974-89) with the *Boston Red Sox.
Peak season: 1978 -- 121 runs, 213 hits, 25 doubles, 15 triples (!), 46 HR, 139 RBI, .315/.370/.600, 406 total bases, 157 OPS+, 147 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1977, 1979, 1983, 1986.
Primary position: left field. Those who claim he DH'd a lot should know that he was a primary DH in only four seasons -- his little cuppa coffee in 1974; 1977, when he was injured; 1988, his last full season, and badly faded; and 1989, his last year, when he played only 56 games, or 1/3 of a season. He wasn't a great fielder -- league average, mainly -- but he was legitimately a fielder, playing LF for 3/4 of his career games.
Honoraria and claims to fame: eight All-Star selections (four starts), 1978 AL MVP, two AL Silver Sluggers for Outfield, led the AL in slugging twice, home runs three times, RBI twice, games played once (1978, the full 163 including the playoff game, still the AL record).
Rice had a great peak and fully deserved that MVP Award. In some ways it's not fair what happened to him -- the fast fade after age 33; the injury that kept him out of the 1975 postseason (what would the World Series have been like with Rice swinging away?); having to play one of the toughest fields in the majors, left in Fenway; following a Hall-class act, Yaz, who had his own Hall-class act to follow, Williams, so there was a tradition to uphold; that he was a shy, soft-spoken, black southern man in a very, even notoriously, white, northern city. No matter how much his bat said, the media wanted more.
I'm a Red Sox fan, and for all that Rice delivered, I still see more above-average to good performances (nice to have, certainly) than Hall-class great ones. Had he a longer, more graceful cruise to retirement; had the 1981 season been played in full; had he finished the 1975 season healthily... such what-ifs tantalize, but no credit can be given for things not done. Rice had a great peak and a good career, but it falls short for me.
Chipmaker's vote: No, and I'm not happy about it, but it is honest.
Prediction: with only two ballots left, Rice surpasses 70%, leaving a huge cliffhanger for the December 2008 ballot. Look for the Summer 2008 bestseller, Rice For The Hall?, co-written by Willie Makit and Betty Wont. (This is, yes, a very bad pun.) If the writers elect him, I will consider that a happy day, a plaque not only earned on the diamond, but also with agony throughout the electoral process.
22. Jose Rijo
Years on ballot: 1.
Peak return: 0.2% (2001).
Career: 14 seasons (1984-95, 2001-02) with the New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, and *Cincinnati Reds.
Peak season: 1993 -- 14-9, 2.48, 227 K, 163 ERA+. And he hit a home run, one of only two in his career.
Other outstanding seasons: 1988, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994.
Primary position: RH starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: one All-Star selection. 1990 World Series MVP for an absolutely brilliant performance. Led NL in winning percentage once,WHIP once, strikeouts once. Member of the 1990 World Series champion Reds.
Rijo is an odd case. After he last played in the majors in 1995, he qualified and was selected for the December 2000 (2001 Induction) writers ballot, where he received one vote. He then made a comeback for two seasons, which has reset his Hall eligibility. Whether he is allowed another 14 years, counting off his one previous ballot appearance, or the full 15 restarted, is not to my knowledge a resolved question, but it is certainly an irrelevant one. Those two additional seasons were nothing to change more than a handful of opinions, if any. To his credit, he was absolutely masterful in the 1990 World Series against a frightfully strong Athletics team, and he sat them down with authority, allowing one run and nine hits in 15.1 innings as the Reds stunningly swept to the championship.
But we've already seen his Hall ballot destiny -- relegation, again.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: two votes; relegation redux.
23. Lee Smith
Years on ballot: 5.
Peak return: 45.0% (2006).
2007 return: 39.8%
Career: 18 seasons (1980-97) with the *Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, California Angels, Cincinnati Reds, and Montréal Expos.
Peak season: 1991 -- 6-3, 47 saves, 2.34, 67 K (to 13 walks), 157 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1982, 1983, 1987, 1988, 1990, 1994.
Primary position: RH relief pitcher / closer.
Honoraria and claims to fame: seven All-Star selections, three Rolaids Relief Awards (two NL, one AL), led NL in saves three times and AL once. Held the career record for saves from 1993, when he passed Reardon, to 2006, when Hoffman surpassed him, and Smith is still second all-time.
Smith was great fun to watch. When he trundled out of the bullpen and ambled toward the mound, he always gave the impression that he'd just woken up from a relaxing nap. He entered the game at his own lazy pace, but on the mound he was all business. He'd pound in that monster fastball, strike out a few guys, get his outs, end the game, and amble off toward the dugout.
And yet, he bounced around a lot, and it's not certain why this was. He didn't lose his stuff until his last, partial season with the Expos, though he'd lost his closer job the year before. Sometimes a reliever is just that bit more valuable as a trading chit than as an in-game pitcher, though some of the talent he was traded for suggests that his present team never valued him appropriately highly. He did his job and did it very well for a long time, in a role that is notorious for burning out even the best and toughest. Smith endured and excelled, and for that, he held the career record for well over a decade.
Coming off their 1986 AL championship and heartbreaking World Series, the 1987 Red Sox seemed brimming with promise, but it quickly fell apart. One reason -- there were many -- was the terrible bullpen. They picked up only 16 saves all season. The entire 1987 season was painful, outside of Clemens' starts. So when Smith was picked up over the winter, there was rejoicing; no longer would games be blown! I was in the Fenway bleachers that rainy Opening Day 1988, and when the relievers strolled out to the bullpen before the game, we gave Lee Arthur a standing ovation. He tipped his cap -- and later blew the game by serving up a tenth-inning HR to Alan Trammell, but we didn't care that much. Boston had a real, ace closer again, and (after that day) he delivered.
For all that, I'm not a big Smith proponent for the Hall. I could see him getting in, and the writers are sort-of leaning toward that someday, but right now there are better relievers (hint: Goose) waiting ahead of him. All good men in turn, I suppose. Right now, I let him wait, but with strong hopes.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: 45%, but after Gossage gets in this time, he takes a bigger leap next year.
24. Todd Stottlemyre
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 14 seasons (1988-2000, 2002) with the *Toronto Blue Jays, Oakland Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers, and Arizona Diamondbacks.
Peak season: 1991 -- 15-8, 3.78, 116 K, 112 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1998. It's pretty slim pickings, fans.
Primary position: RH starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Member of the 1992-93 World Series champion Blue Jays. Technically a member of the 2001 World Series champion Diamondbacks, but he was injured and on the DL the entire season. Son of Mel Stottlemyre.
sigh. I try to find positive things about everyone on the Hall ballot, and for most candidates that's pretty easy (and for some, the raft of accomplishments and honors needs to be edited judiciously). These men played the great game at the highest level; they were, at the minimum, good.
Todd Stottlemyre throws a huge wrench into that approach. The best -- really, the best -- that can be said about him is that he pitched pretty good innings totals. A team needs about 1400 IP a year, someone's gotta throw them, and Stottlemyre was good for 150-200 for the bulk of his seasons. Not especially good innings, mind you, but he'd get the outs eventually.
I cannot imagine what one or more nominators were thinking when they offered up this name, unless they were thinking more about his father, because aside from the name, there is nothing whatsoever to suggest a Hall-class career. I don't like to dismiss anyone as "ballot filler" but there's no other worthwhile conclusion here.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: either zero or one vote, and relegated.
25. Alan Trammell
Years on ballot: 6.
Peak return: 17.7% (2006).
2007 return: 13.4%
Career: 20 seasons (1977-96) with the *Detroit Tigers.
Peak season: 1987 -- 109 runs, 205 hits, 34 doubles, 28 HR, 105 RBI, 21 stolen bases (against 2 caught steals), .343/.402/.551, 155 OPS+, 137 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1983, 1984, 1988, 1990, 1993.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections, 1984 World Series MVP, four AL Gold Gloves for Shortstop, three AL Silver Sluggers for Shortstop. Member of the 1984 World Series champion Tigers.
Trammell no doubt was a very good player, but as a shortstop, he suffers in comparison to two of his contemporaries -- Ripken, who proved a big man could play short and was a better hitter, and Smith, who earned his nickname, The Wizard, for his sparkling defense. Trammell was more of a median, good at offense and defense but not as extreme as either of his HOFer peers, and so simply doesn't stand out. (Watch for Barry Larkin to run into this same scenario when he reaches the ballot in a few years.) Had as many below-league average seasons, offensively, as he did above-league average ones, though overall he ended up above. A nice peak for a shortstop, but not a brilliant one.
I'm torn, though from his ballot returns, the writers have not been. Trammell put up a very good career, but not a great one like the Hall seeks to honor. Servings of greatness leavened with equivalent amounts of mediocrity. Nothing here stands up and proclaims Hall-worthiness. I might change my mind next time, but for now, I go with the conservative, status-quo choice, and leave him out.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: 19%, a new high, but not giving much hope to Tigers fans.
And that's it for the players on the writers ballot. A short summary will follow.
19. Dave Parker
Years on ballot: 11.
Peak return: 24.5% (1998).
2007 return: 11.4%
Career: 19 seasons (1973-91) with the *Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds, Oakland Athletics, Milwaukee Brewers, California Angels, and Toronto Blue Jays.
Peak season: 1978 -- 102 runs, 194 hits, 32 doubles, 12 triples, 30 HR, 117 RBI, 20 stolen bases, .334/.394/.585, 166 OPS+, 134 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1975, 1977, 1979, 1985.
Primary position: right field, though he finished up (3 1/2 seasons) as a designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: seven All-Star selections (four starts), 1978 NL MVP, 1979 All-Star Game MVP, three NL Gold Gloves for Outfield, three Silver Sluggers (two NL for Outfield, one AL for DH), two NL batting championships, led the NL in slugging twice, hits once, RBI once. Member of two World Series champions, the 1979 Pirates and the 1989 Athletics.
Parker's peak was fantastic, but it was over quickly -- he fell off a cliff between 1979 and 1980, and except for one resurgent season (1985) never saw those heady heights again. Maybe it was the cocaine, which Parker was known to have a problem with at the time. The Cobra was, for those late-70s seasons, a stunningly powerful hitter, and if he deprived us the fans of seeing all he could have done because of drug abuse, well, I'm not very sympathetic. Bad choices can have bad consequences.
Parker is one of the few players, perhaps the only player, to win an All-Star Game MVP because of his defense. He made two brilliant throws from deep right field in 1979, nailing Rice at third trying to stretch a double, and Downing at home, who would have scored the go-ahead run. A sterling performance, but one game does not make a career Hall-class.
Very good fielder and, for a short time, a fantastic hitter. But the last 2/3 of his career was league average; when we should have been blown away, he blew it.
Utterly irrelevant to his Hall candidacy, but I've always loved this Sports Illustrated cover, the 09-April-1979 issue, with the defending MVPs standing back to back. Rice is a big guy, 6'2", and the way he is looking up at Parker was, to me, an indelible image. Rice is big, but Parker is huge.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: 15%, but he's going nowhere.
20. Tim Raines
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 23 seasons (1979-99, 2001-02) with the *Montréal Expos, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Baltimore Orioles, and Florida Marlins.
Peak season: 1987 -- 123 runs, 175 hits, 34 doubles, 18 HR, 68 RBI, 50 stolen bases (against five caught steals!), 90 walks, .330/.429/.526, 149 OPS+, 132 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1984, 1985, 1986, 1989, 1993.
Primary position: left field. Leadoff hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: seven All-Star selections (two starts), 1987 All-Star Game MVP, one NL Silver Slugger for Outfield, one NL batting championship, led NL in on-base percentage once, runs twice, stolen bases four times. Career 84.7% stolen base success rate is the highest for anyone with 300+ SB; 808 career SB ranks fifth all-time, with no one threatening passing any time soon. One of only two fathers to play alongside his son in a major league game (the other being Ken Griffey, Sr., and I'm not yet counting out Roger Clemens doing it). Member of the 1996 and 1998 World Series champion Yankees. Jersey #30 retired by the Expos.
Bonus baseball points: Raines was a coach for the 2005 World Series champion White Sox. There's only so much credit one can appoint to a coach, but he was there.
Esoteric baseball bonus points: Raines was the last active player (thanks to grandfathering players active before 1983) to wear a batting helmet without the ear flap. (Yes, Julio Franco is still active, but he has always worn flap-style helmets.)
Rock was one of the most brilliant leadoff men in baseball history, though it's hard to appreciate that since he played exactly contemporary with the greatest leadoff man in history, Rickey Henderson. His peak was masterful, and realize that his 1987 season didn't begin until May 2, since the Collusion conspiracy prevented him from signing elsewhere, and the silly re-signing regulations prevented him from returning to the Expos until May. But when he did, he picked right up and stormed the NL all season (Raines played 139 games). He had a long, slow decline, being a useful player for the rest of his career and an above-league average one for all but two seasons, one when he was suffering from lupus (and missed the next season altogether) and his last, tired gasp in Miami. Raines played like 93% of Henderson his entire career, and that definitely deserves the eternal bronze plaque.
Besides, Rock and Dawson are the last chances for an Expos cap logo to adorn a plaque.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes! And proud to cast it.
Prediction: Raines is a tough candidate to forecast. Some writers will like him, others will not (there's usually a small "never on the first ballot, never unanimous" faction), still others simply won't yet have seen the light. I think he gets elected eventually, but not this year, so I'll go with 35%, and I truly hope I've aimed low.
21. Jim Rice
Years on ballot: 13.
Peak return: 64.8% (2006).
2007 return: 63.5%
Career: 16 seasons (1974-89) with the *Boston Red Sox.
Peak season: 1978 -- 121 runs, 213 hits, 25 doubles, 15 triples (!), 46 HR, 139 RBI, .315/.370/.600, 406 total bases, 157 OPS+, 147 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1977, 1979, 1983, 1986.
Primary position: left field. Those who claim he DH'd a lot should know that he was a primary DH in only four seasons -- his little cuppa coffee in 1974; 1977, when he was injured; 1988, his last full season, and badly faded; and 1989, his last year, when he played only 56 games, or 1/3 of a season. He wasn't a great fielder -- league average, mainly -- but he was legitimately a fielder, playing LF for 3/4 of his career games.
Honoraria and claims to fame: eight All-Star selections (four starts), 1978 AL MVP, two AL Silver Sluggers for Outfield, led the AL in slugging twice, home runs three times, RBI twice, games played once (1978, the full 163 including the playoff game, still the AL record).
Rice had a great peak and fully deserved that MVP Award. In some ways it's not fair what happened to him -- the fast fade after age 33; the injury that kept him out of the 1975 postseason (what would the World Series have been like with Rice swinging away?); having to play one of the toughest fields in the majors, left in Fenway; following a Hall-class act, Yaz, who had his own Hall-class act to follow, Williams, so there was a tradition to uphold; that he was a shy, soft-spoken, black southern man in a very, even notoriously, white, northern city. No matter how much his bat said, the media wanted more.
I'm a Red Sox fan, and for all that Rice delivered, I still see more above-average to good performances (nice to have, certainly) than Hall-class great ones. Had he a longer, more graceful cruise to retirement; had the 1981 season been played in full; had he finished the 1975 season healthily... such what-ifs tantalize, but no credit can be given for things not done. Rice had a great peak and a good career, but it falls short for me.
Chipmaker's vote: No, and I'm not happy about it, but it is honest.
Prediction: with only two ballots left, Rice surpasses 70%, leaving a huge cliffhanger for the December 2008 ballot. Look for the Summer 2008 bestseller, Rice For The Hall?, co-written by Willie Makit and Betty Wont. (This is, yes, a very bad pun.) If the writers elect him, I will consider that a happy day, a plaque not only earned on the diamond, but also with agony throughout the electoral process.
22. Jose Rijo
Years on ballot: 1.
Peak return: 0.2% (2001).
Career: 14 seasons (1984-95, 2001-02) with the New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, and *Cincinnati Reds.
Peak season: 1993 -- 14-9, 2.48, 227 K, 163 ERA+. And he hit a home run, one of only two in his career.
Other outstanding seasons: 1988, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994.
Primary position: RH starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: one All-Star selection. 1990 World Series MVP for an absolutely brilliant performance. Led NL in winning percentage once,WHIP once, strikeouts once. Member of the 1990 World Series champion Reds.
Rijo is an odd case. After he last played in the majors in 1995, he qualified and was selected for the December 2000 (2001 Induction) writers ballot, where he received one vote. He then made a comeback for two seasons, which has reset his Hall eligibility. Whether he is allowed another 14 years, counting off his one previous ballot appearance, or the full 15 restarted, is not to my knowledge a resolved question, but it is certainly an irrelevant one. Those two additional seasons were nothing to change more than a handful of opinions, if any. To his credit, he was absolutely masterful in the 1990 World Series against a frightfully strong Athletics team, and he sat them down with authority, allowing one run and nine hits in 15.1 innings as the Reds stunningly swept to the championship.
But we've already seen his Hall ballot destiny -- relegation, again.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: two votes; relegation redux.
23. Lee Smith
Years on ballot: 5.
Peak return: 45.0% (2006).
2007 return: 39.8%
Career: 18 seasons (1980-97) with the *Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, California Angels, Cincinnati Reds, and Montréal Expos.
Peak season: 1991 -- 6-3, 47 saves, 2.34, 67 K (to 13 walks), 157 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1982, 1983, 1987, 1988, 1990, 1994.
Primary position: RH relief pitcher / closer.
Honoraria and claims to fame: seven All-Star selections, three Rolaids Relief Awards (two NL, one AL), led NL in saves three times and AL once. Held the career record for saves from 1993, when he passed Reardon, to 2006, when Hoffman surpassed him, and Smith is still second all-time.
Smith was great fun to watch. When he trundled out of the bullpen and ambled toward the mound, he always gave the impression that he'd just woken up from a relaxing nap. He entered the game at his own lazy pace, but on the mound he was all business. He'd pound in that monster fastball, strike out a few guys, get his outs, end the game, and amble off toward the dugout.
And yet, he bounced around a lot, and it's not certain why this was. He didn't lose his stuff until his last, partial season with the Expos, though he'd lost his closer job the year before. Sometimes a reliever is just that bit more valuable as a trading chit than as an in-game pitcher, though some of the talent he was traded for suggests that his present team never valued him appropriately highly. He did his job and did it very well for a long time, in a role that is notorious for burning out even the best and toughest. Smith endured and excelled, and for that, he held the career record for well over a decade.
Coming off their 1986 AL championship and heartbreaking World Series, the 1987 Red Sox seemed brimming with promise, but it quickly fell apart. One reason -- there were many -- was the terrible bullpen. They picked up only 16 saves all season. The entire 1987 season was painful, outside of Clemens' starts. So when Smith was picked up over the winter, there was rejoicing; no longer would games be blown! I was in the Fenway bleachers that rainy Opening Day 1988, and when the relievers strolled out to the bullpen before the game, we gave Lee Arthur a standing ovation. He tipped his cap -- and later blew the game by serving up a tenth-inning HR to Alan Trammell, but we didn't care that much. Boston had a real, ace closer again, and (after that day) he delivered.
For all that, I'm not a big Smith proponent for the Hall. I could see him getting in, and the writers are sort-of leaning toward that someday, but right now there are better relievers (hint: Goose) waiting ahead of him. All good men in turn, I suppose. Right now, I let him wait, but with strong hopes.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: 45%, but after Gossage gets in this time, he takes a bigger leap next year.
24. Todd Stottlemyre
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 14 seasons (1988-2000, 2002) with the *Toronto Blue Jays, Oakland Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers, and Arizona Diamondbacks.
Peak season: 1991 -- 15-8, 3.78, 116 K, 112 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1998. It's pretty slim pickings, fans.
Primary position: RH starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Member of the 1992-93 World Series champion Blue Jays. Technically a member of the 2001 World Series champion Diamondbacks, but he was injured and on the DL the entire season. Son of Mel Stottlemyre.
sigh. I try to find positive things about everyone on the Hall ballot, and for most candidates that's pretty easy (and for some, the raft of accomplishments and honors needs to be edited judiciously). These men played the great game at the highest level; they were, at the minimum, good.
Todd Stottlemyre throws a huge wrench into that approach. The best -- really, the best -- that can be said about him is that he pitched pretty good innings totals. A team needs about 1400 IP a year, someone's gotta throw them, and Stottlemyre was good for 150-200 for the bulk of his seasons. Not especially good innings, mind you, but he'd get the outs eventually.
I cannot imagine what one or more nominators were thinking when they offered up this name, unless they were thinking more about his father, because aside from the name, there is nothing whatsoever to suggest a Hall-class career. I don't like to dismiss anyone as "ballot filler" but there's no other worthwhile conclusion here.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: either zero or one vote, and relegated.
25. Alan Trammell
Years on ballot: 6.
Peak return: 17.7% (2006).
2007 return: 13.4%
Career: 20 seasons (1977-96) with the *Detroit Tigers.
Peak season: 1987 -- 109 runs, 205 hits, 34 doubles, 28 HR, 105 RBI, 21 stolen bases (against 2 caught steals), .343/.402/.551, 155 OPS+, 137 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1983, 1984, 1988, 1990, 1993.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections, 1984 World Series MVP, four AL Gold Gloves for Shortstop, three AL Silver Sluggers for Shortstop. Member of the 1984 World Series champion Tigers.
Trammell no doubt was a very good player, but as a shortstop, he suffers in comparison to two of his contemporaries -- Ripken, who proved a big man could play short and was a better hitter, and Smith, who earned his nickname, The Wizard, for his sparkling defense. Trammell was more of a median, good at offense and defense but not as extreme as either of his HOFer peers, and so simply doesn't stand out. (Watch for Barry Larkin to run into this same scenario when he reaches the ballot in a few years.) Had as many below-league average seasons, offensively, as he did above-league average ones, though overall he ended up above. A nice peak for a shortstop, but not a brilliant one.
I'm torn, though from his ballot returns, the writers have not been. Trammell put up a very good career, but not a great one like the Hall seeks to honor. Servings of greatness leavened with equivalent amounts of mediocrity. Nothing here stands up and proclaims Hall-worthiness. I might change my mind next time, but for now, I go with the conservative, status-quo choice, and leave him out.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: 19%, a new high, but not giving much hope to Tigers fans.
And that's it for the players on the writers ballot. A short summary will follow.
Friday, November 30, 2007
The Hall's 2008 Writers Ballot -- The Player Candidates, Part 3
Continuing with the writers ballot candidates.
13. Chuck Knoblauch
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 12 seasons (1991-2002) with the *Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, and Kansas City Royals.
Peak season: 1996 -- 197 hits, 140 runs, 13 HR, 72 RBI, 35 doubles, 14 triples, 98 walks, 45 stolen bases, .341/.448/.517, 143 OPS+, 147 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1999.
Primary position: second base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections, 1991 AL ROY, one AL Gold Glove at Second Base, two AL Silver Sluggers at Second Base (amazingly, 1995 and 1997, bookending his peak season), led AL in doubles once and triples once. Member of the 1991 World Series champion Twins and the 1998-1999-2000 World Series champion Yankees.
Knoblauch was an above-average but not brilliant fielder, until late in his career his fielding fell apart and he was moved to left field -- so, to the point, his glovework isn't going to get him into the Hall. And neither is his hitting -- he knew how to take a walk and had good doubles power, but such players are not rare. Useful isn't Hall-class by itself. Knoblauch was a fun player to watch, but Cooperstown is not his final stop.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: relegated on his first ballot.
14. Don Mattingly
Years on ballot: 7.
Peak return: 28.2% (2001).
2007 return: 9.9%
Career: 14 seasons (1982-95) with the *New York Yankees.
Peak season: 1986 -- 238 hits, 117 runs, 31 Hr, 113 RBI, 53 doubles, .352/.394/.573, 161 OPS+, 150 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1984, 1985, 1987.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections (one start), 1985 AL MVP, nine AL Gold Gloves at First Base, three AL Silver Sluggers at First Base, 1984 AL batting champion, 1986 AL slugging champion, led AL in hits twice, doubles three times, RBI once. Set the major league single season record for grand slams with six in 1987 (and never hit another in his entire career). Tied the ML record for consecutive games with a home run, with eight. Tied the ML record for most putouts in a game, with 22. Jersey #23 retired by the Yankees.
Baseball bonus points: Mattingly has been a coach for the Yankees for the last several years. This has (or maybe, had) given rise to hopes among Yankee fandom that some day he would take the manager's seat and earn his Hall plaque the other traditional Yankee way, by piling up trophies. Well, maybe -- but he's now gone, and I don't think we can annoint him a Hall-worthy manager until he actually begins managing.
Donnie Baseball was, along with Dave Winfield and Rickey Henderson, the only bright spots in Bronx baseball for most of the 1980s. The team was good but never good enough to win the division, and Mattingly never saw the postseason until his last year, 1995, when he played great but the Mariners just squeaked by in a five-game, down to the wire classic. And thus was born the Curse of Don Mattingly -- the Yankees never won a championship while he was there, promptly won four after he retired, and stopped winning when he returned as a coach. Go figure.
Mattingly was, without question, one of the two or three hottest players in baseball for a magical four-year stretch, 1984-87, winning one MVP and finishing second another time. Even his 1988 and '89 seasons were pretty good, but then he injured his back and the majestic swing was robbed of its power. Mattingly was pedestrian after that. Position matters; his numbers from a catcher or second baseman would be amazing, but baseball history is littered with good-hitting first baseman. And as great as his four-year peak was, four years is not a Hall-class career. Outside of that, he was merely mortal. The injury was a harsh thing, but sometimes that happens. Illness and injury have felled better players than Donnie, and no credit should be given for things not done. I know there's a generation of Yankees fans who love him, but, well, sorry -- pinstriped glasses might make him look All That, but they don't make him better than he was. And he was not Hall-class.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: his vote totals have been falling, but he bounces back a little bit to 14%. Don't look for the happy ending, Yankees fen -- he either falls below 5% and gets relegated some year, or simply lingers for the full 15 and drops off.
15. Mark McGwire
Years on ballot: 1.
Peak return: 23.5% (2007).
2007 return: 23.5%
Career: 16 seasons (1986-2001) with the *Oakland Athletics and St. Louis Cardinals.
Peak season: 1998 -- 130 runs, then-record 70 HR, 147 RBI, then-NL record 162 walks, .299/.470/.752, 216 OPS+, 193 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, and 2000 even though he played only 89 games.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 12 All-Star selections (six starts), 1987 AL ROY, one AL Gold Glove at First Base, three Silver Sluggers at First Base (one AL, two NL), led his league in OBP twice, SLG four times, home runs four times, RBI once, walks twice. Rookie record 49 HR. Record 70 HR in 1998, since surpassed once. Member of the 1989 World Series champion Athletics. Member of the 500 Home Runs Club (583 career).
Big Mac finished second, to Sammy Sosa, in the 1998 NL MVP voting, one of the worst and least justifiable results in recent history. McGwire was penalized for having lesser teammates than Sosa did, as the Cubs crawled into the postseason while Mac's Cardinals finished in third place. Make no mistake, Sosa had a great season, but McGwire had a historic one; the voting should not have been close -- and it wasn't, but in the wrong way. Damn mediots.
People dismissive of McGwire like to claim he was "one-dimensional", though if you ask them about this they never have a firm definition of what that means. It is nonsense anyway, when applied to McGwire -- his best-known dimension, power, came in league-leading servings, which is not at all a bad thing, but he also provided league-leading on-base ability -- he knew how to take a walk -- and that combination, power and on-base, is deadly. And highly desirable -- general managers will pay a lot for players who can provide both in the massive amounts McGwire could. He was more than just 583 homers, and those 583 homers alone are considerable. Homers are good things. On his stats alone, McGwire is unquestionably Hall-worthy.
But... yeah, you knew this was coming... McGwire's candidacy doesn't get to testify based on just his statistics and gameplay style. He is known to have used androstenedione (which, at the time, was both legal and not prohibited by MLB), and there is wide suspicion that he was using other, stronger magic waters as well. No one knows that, not publicly, and we may never have the full story. I honestly do not care -- MLB is a competitive enterprise that attracts competitive people, who are all, always, looking for an edge, a (preferably permitted) way to play better and win more, and if they find something which the sanctioning body has not outlawed, that something will get used. So if McGwire was using something to play better and win more, he was being a smart player, and I'm not going to frown upon him for that.
But the writers, the Hall electors, will, and did.
I have no flaming idea what his 2008 ballot return will look like, since it was well-known his 2007 return would amount to an unofficial rebuke, both for the magic waters rumors and his uninspiring Congressional testimony in March 2005. Some writers may now consider that withholding their vote once was sufficient sanction, and he'll gain some ground. But it's just a guess.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes.
Prediction: jumps a few points to, oh, 29%. But honestly I have no idea.
16. Jack Morris
Years on ballot: 8.
Peak return: 41.2% (2006).
2007 return: 37.1%
Career: 18 seasons (1977-94) with the *Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins, Toronto Blue Jays, and Cleveland Indians.
Peak season: 1986 -- 21-8, 15 CG, 6 ShO, 223 K, 3.27, 267 IP, 127 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1979, 1981, 1987, 1991, 1992.
Primary position: RH starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections (three starts), 1991 World Series MVP, led AL in wins twice, strikeouts once, shutouts once. Pitched a no-hitter in 1984. Member of three World Series champion teams, the 1984 Tigers, the 1991 Twins, and the 1992 Blue Jays. A good postseason pitcher, going 7-4, 3.80 in 13 games, 92.1 IP, with one legendary night.
Morris was a good pitcher, no doubt, but he never put up a truly great season. Fat wins totals, yes, because he played on (and strongly contributed to) good teams. But his ERA and WHIP were never in the elite -- never led the league in either, and his best seasonal ranking ever was 4th in WHIP, 5th in ERA. Durable and dependable are very good things but not enough for the Hall.
And then we have his legendary night, Game 7 of the 1991 World Series, wherein Morris outlasted a young John Smoltz, kept the Braves scoreless into the tenth inning, and finished with an extra-inning complete game shutout to win the championship. No question it was a brilliant, gutsy performance in a high-pressure environment, probably the second-best postseason pitching performance ever (edging in just behind Larsen's perfect game). It was a game for the ages -- if you didn't see it or weren't yet born, I feel a little sorry for you -- but ultimately, it was one game, and one game does not make a career Hall-worthy.
Morris' ballot returns are futzing around the midway mark, slowly growing, but not yet showing any inevitable momentum. If the writers vote him in, well done -- but if they never do I don't think it will be a shame.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: uninspiring ballot (much like 2006) gives Morris' candidacy a little giddyup, bringing home 46% -- promising but still mostly tease for Tigers fans.
17. Dale Murphy
Years on ballot: 9.
Peak return: 23.2% (2000).
2007 return: 9.2%
Career: 18 seasons (1976-93) with the *Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, and Colorado Rockies.
Peak season: 1983 -- 131 runs, 36 HR, 121 RBI, 30 stolen bases, 90 walks, .302/.393/.540, 149 OPS+, 131 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987.
Primary position: center field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: seven All-Star selections (five starts), 1982 and 1983 NL MVP, five NL Gold Gloves for Outfield, four NL Silver Sluggers for Outfield, led NL in slugging twice, runs scored once, home runs twice, RBI twice. Jersey #3 retired by the Braves.
I place Murf alongside Dawson -- he'd look good on a plaque, but the Hall is not a lesser institution without him. Had a brilliant, six-year peak, hotter than Mattingly even without accounting for position (great CFs are harder to find than great 1Bmen). Defensively he was very good, and merited being in center. And then, after 1987, he fell off a cliff, became a league-average player for the rest of his career, and fell short of the 400 home run milestone (398; makes little difference, but 400 looks better). The writers have been giving him far less love than I have expected.
Two other points to note. One, among the voting criteria is that a player's character, integrity, and sportsmanship should be taken in to consideration. Dale Murphy is, from all accounts, one of the finest human beings ever to walk the diamond, a genuinely nice guy and kind person. If anyone would ever earn some bonus points for character, it'd be Murf -- and yet his vote returns keep dropping. So either the "character and integrity" concepts are mainly included for use as an excuse against voting for a player, or the writers simply don't bother putting in that sort of consideration. Not that being a nice guy should earn Murf the plaque, but below 10%? Come on, his character should be worth a little love.
Second, in the still-turbulent wake of the steroids era scandal, many people have proffered that the many suspicions surrounding the inflated powerball stats of the 1990s will start to make the 1980s guys look a lot better -- mainly Dawson, Murphy, and Jim Rice (who's coming up later), men who have gained the Hall ballot but not yet the plaque. Well, that's a nice theory, but it hasn't borne much fruit -- Rice and Dawson are still lingering, and Murphy's candidacy is fading badly.
I don't know what the writers are thinking, and I could change my mind next week, but right now I'm going to say that with his scorching peak, tough fielding position, and type of person is just enough to convince me to move just past the borderline.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes.
Prediction: gets a "weak ballot" bounce back up to 15%, but it just isn't showing any real hope for the happy ending.
18. Robb Nen
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 10 seasons (1993-2002) with the Texas Rangers, Florida Marlins, and *San Francisco Giants.
Peak season: 2000 -- 4-3, 41 saves, 1.50, 92 K in 66 IP, 284 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1996, 1998, 2002.
Primary position: RH relief pitcher / closer.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections, led NL in saves once. Member of the 1997 World Series champion Marlins and the 2002 NL champion Giants.
Nen was a very good closer with flashes of greatness. The Hall, however, still hasn't built a reliable notion of what makes a Hall-class relief pitcher, as there are few already in, and they're not all that similar -- Wilhelm, Eckersley, Fingers, Sutter. And the leading future candidates -- Gossage, Rivera, Hoffman -- won't really improve the issue right away. Nen, however, is not of the same cut as the men just named. Maybe someday, as the concept of a Hall-class reliever starts to gel, he'll look a lot better, but right now there are better closers waiting ahead of him.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: below 5%, relegated. Though I'll be quite happy if he skirts past and gets on the ballot again next year.
More to come, should finish up the candidates in one more post.
13. Chuck Knoblauch
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 12 seasons (1991-2002) with the *Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, and Kansas City Royals.
Peak season: 1996 -- 197 hits, 140 runs, 13 HR, 72 RBI, 35 doubles, 14 triples, 98 walks, 45 stolen bases, .341/.448/.517, 143 OPS+, 147 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1999.
Primary position: second base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections, 1991 AL ROY, one AL Gold Glove at Second Base, two AL Silver Sluggers at Second Base (amazingly, 1995 and 1997, bookending his peak season), led AL in doubles once and triples once. Member of the 1991 World Series champion Twins and the 1998-1999-2000 World Series champion Yankees.
Knoblauch was an above-average but not brilliant fielder, until late in his career his fielding fell apart and he was moved to left field -- so, to the point, his glovework isn't going to get him into the Hall. And neither is his hitting -- he knew how to take a walk and had good doubles power, but such players are not rare. Useful isn't Hall-class by itself. Knoblauch was a fun player to watch, but Cooperstown is not his final stop.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: relegated on his first ballot.
14. Don Mattingly
Years on ballot: 7.
Peak return: 28.2% (2001).
2007 return: 9.9%
Career: 14 seasons (1982-95) with the *New York Yankees.
Peak season: 1986 -- 238 hits, 117 runs, 31 Hr, 113 RBI, 53 doubles, .352/.394/.573, 161 OPS+, 150 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1984, 1985, 1987.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections (one start), 1985 AL MVP, nine AL Gold Gloves at First Base, three AL Silver Sluggers at First Base, 1984 AL batting champion, 1986 AL slugging champion, led AL in hits twice, doubles three times, RBI once. Set the major league single season record for grand slams with six in 1987 (and never hit another in his entire career). Tied the ML record for consecutive games with a home run, with eight. Tied the ML record for most putouts in a game, with 22. Jersey #23 retired by the Yankees.
Baseball bonus points: Mattingly has been a coach for the Yankees for the last several years. This has (or maybe, had) given rise to hopes among Yankee fandom that some day he would take the manager's seat and earn his Hall plaque the other traditional Yankee way, by piling up trophies. Well, maybe -- but he's now gone, and I don't think we can annoint him a Hall-worthy manager until he actually begins managing.
Donnie Baseball was, along with Dave Winfield and Rickey Henderson, the only bright spots in Bronx baseball for most of the 1980s. The team was good but never good enough to win the division, and Mattingly never saw the postseason until his last year, 1995, when he played great but the Mariners just squeaked by in a five-game, down to the wire classic. And thus was born the Curse of Don Mattingly -- the Yankees never won a championship while he was there, promptly won four after he retired, and stopped winning when he returned as a coach. Go figure.
Mattingly was, without question, one of the two or three hottest players in baseball for a magical four-year stretch, 1984-87, winning one MVP and finishing second another time. Even his 1988 and '89 seasons were pretty good, but then he injured his back and the majestic swing was robbed of its power. Mattingly was pedestrian after that. Position matters; his numbers from a catcher or second baseman would be amazing, but baseball history is littered with good-hitting first baseman. And as great as his four-year peak was, four years is not a Hall-class career. Outside of that, he was merely mortal. The injury was a harsh thing, but sometimes that happens. Illness and injury have felled better players than Donnie, and no credit should be given for things not done. I know there's a generation of Yankees fans who love him, but, well, sorry -- pinstriped glasses might make him look All That, but they don't make him better than he was. And he was not Hall-class.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: his vote totals have been falling, but he bounces back a little bit to 14%. Don't look for the happy ending, Yankees fen -- he either falls below 5% and gets relegated some year, or simply lingers for the full 15 and drops off.
15. Mark McGwire
Years on ballot: 1.
Peak return: 23.5% (2007).
2007 return: 23.5%
Career: 16 seasons (1986-2001) with the *Oakland Athletics and St. Louis Cardinals.
Peak season: 1998 -- 130 runs, then-record 70 HR, 147 RBI, then-NL record 162 walks, .299/.470/.752, 216 OPS+, 193 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, and 2000 even though he played only 89 games.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 12 All-Star selections (six starts), 1987 AL ROY, one AL Gold Glove at First Base, three Silver Sluggers at First Base (one AL, two NL), led his league in OBP twice, SLG four times, home runs four times, RBI once, walks twice. Rookie record 49 HR. Record 70 HR in 1998, since surpassed once. Member of the 1989 World Series champion Athletics. Member of the 500 Home Runs Club (583 career).
Big Mac finished second, to Sammy Sosa, in the 1998 NL MVP voting, one of the worst and least justifiable results in recent history. McGwire was penalized for having lesser teammates than Sosa did, as the Cubs crawled into the postseason while Mac's Cardinals finished in third place. Make no mistake, Sosa had a great season, but McGwire had a historic one; the voting should not have been close -- and it wasn't, but in the wrong way. Damn mediots.
People dismissive of McGwire like to claim he was "one-dimensional", though if you ask them about this they never have a firm definition of what that means. It is nonsense anyway, when applied to McGwire -- his best-known dimension, power, came in league-leading servings, which is not at all a bad thing, but he also provided league-leading on-base ability -- he knew how to take a walk -- and that combination, power and on-base, is deadly. And highly desirable -- general managers will pay a lot for players who can provide both in the massive amounts McGwire could. He was more than just 583 homers, and those 583 homers alone are considerable. Homers are good things. On his stats alone, McGwire is unquestionably Hall-worthy.
But... yeah, you knew this was coming... McGwire's candidacy doesn't get to testify based on just his statistics and gameplay style. He is known to have used androstenedione (which, at the time, was both legal and not prohibited by MLB), and there is wide suspicion that he was using other, stronger magic waters as well. No one knows that, not publicly, and we may never have the full story. I honestly do not care -- MLB is a competitive enterprise that attracts competitive people, who are all, always, looking for an edge, a (preferably permitted) way to play better and win more, and if they find something which the sanctioning body has not outlawed, that something will get used. So if McGwire was using something to play better and win more, he was being a smart player, and I'm not going to frown upon him for that.
But the writers, the Hall electors, will, and did.
I have no flaming idea what his 2008 ballot return will look like, since it was well-known his 2007 return would amount to an unofficial rebuke, both for the magic waters rumors and his uninspiring Congressional testimony in March 2005. Some writers may now consider that withholding their vote once was sufficient sanction, and he'll gain some ground. But it's just a guess.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes.
Prediction: jumps a few points to, oh, 29%. But honestly I have no idea.
16. Jack Morris
Years on ballot: 8.
Peak return: 41.2% (2006).
2007 return: 37.1%
Career: 18 seasons (1977-94) with the *Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins, Toronto Blue Jays, and Cleveland Indians.
Peak season: 1986 -- 21-8, 15 CG, 6 ShO, 223 K, 3.27, 267 IP, 127 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1979, 1981, 1987, 1991, 1992.
Primary position: RH starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections (three starts), 1991 World Series MVP, led AL in wins twice, strikeouts once, shutouts once. Pitched a no-hitter in 1984. Member of three World Series champion teams, the 1984 Tigers, the 1991 Twins, and the 1992 Blue Jays. A good postseason pitcher, going 7-4, 3.80 in 13 games, 92.1 IP, with one legendary night.
Morris was a good pitcher, no doubt, but he never put up a truly great season. Fat wins totals, yes, because he played on (and strongly contributed to) good teams. But his ERA and WHIP were never in the elite -- never led the league in either, and his best seasonal ranking ever was 4th in WHIP, 5th in ERA. Durable and dependable are very good things but not enough for the Hall.
And then we have his legendary night, Game 7 of the 1991 World Series, wherein Morris outlasted a young John Smoltz, kept the Braves scoreless into the tenth inning, and finished with an extra-inning complete game shutout to win the championship. No question it was a brilliant, gutsy performance in a high-pressure environment, probably the second-best postseason pitching performance ever (edging in just behind Larsen's perfect game). It was a game for the ages -- if you didn't see it or weren't yet born, I feel a little sorry for you -- but ultimately, it was one game, and one game does not make a career Hall-worthy.
Morris' ballot returns are futzing around the midway mark, slowly growing, but not yet showing any inevitable momentum. If the writers vote him in, well done -- but if they never do I don't think it will be a shame.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: uninspiring ballot (much like 2006) gives Morris' candidacy a little giddyup, bringing home 46% -- promising but still mostly tease for Tigers fans.
17. Dale Murphy
Years on ballot: 9.
Peak return: 23.2% (2000).
2007 return: 9.2%
Career: 18 seasons (1976-93) with the *Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, and Colorado Rockies.
Peak season: 1983 -- 131 runs, 36 HR, 121 RBI, 30 stolen bases, 90 walks, .302/.393/.540, 149 OPS+, 131 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987.
Primary position: center field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: seven All-Star selections (five starts), 1982 and 1983 NL MVP, five NL Gold Gloves for Outfield, four NL Silver Sluggers for Outfield, led NL in slugging twice, runs scored once, home runs twice, RBI twice. Jersey #3 retired by the Braves.
I place Murf alongside Dawson -- he'd look good on a plaque, but the Hall is not a lesser institution without him. Had a brilliant, six-year peak, hotter than Mattingly even without accounting for position (great CFs are harder to find than great 1Bmen). Defensively he was very good, and merited being in center. And then, after 1987, he fell off a cliff, became a league-average player for the rest of his career, and fell short of the 400 home run milestone (398; makes little difference, but 400 looks better). The writers have been giving him far less love than I have expected.
Two other points to note. One, among the voting criteria is that a player's character, integrity, and sportsmanship should be taken in to consideration. Dale Murphy is, from all accounts, one of the finest human beings ever to walk the diamond, a genuinely nice guy and kind person. If anyone would ever earn some bonus points for character, it'd be Murf -- and yet his vote returns keep dropping. So either the "character and integrity" concepts are mainly included for use as an excuse against voting for a player, or the writers simply don't bother putting in that sort of consideration. Not that being a nice guy should earn Murf the plaque, but below 10%? Come on, his character should be worth a little love.
Second, in the still-turbulent wake of the steroids era scandal, many people have proffered that the many suspicions surrounding the inflated powerball stats of the 1990s will start to make the 1980s guys look a lot better -- mainly Dawson, Murphy, and Jim Rice (who's coming up later), men who have gained the Hall ballot but not yet the plaque. Well, that's a nice theory, but it hasn't borne much fruit -- Rice and Dawson are still lingering, and Murphy's candidacy is fading badly.
I don't know what the writers are thinking, and I could change my mind next week, but right now I'm going to say that with his scorching peak, tough fielding position, and type of person is just enough to convince me to move just past the borderline.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes.
Prediction: gets a "weak ballot" bounce back up to 15%, but it just isn't showing any real hope for the happy ending.
18. Robb Nen
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 10 seasons (1993-2002) with the Texas Rangers, Florida Marlins, and *San Francisco Giants.
Peak season: 2000 -- 4-3, 41 saves, 1.50, 92 K in 66 IP, 284 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1996, 1998, 2002.
Primary position: RH relief pitcher / closer.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections, led NL in saves once. Member of the 1997 World Series champion Marlins and the 2002 NL champion Giants.
Nen was a very good closer with flashes of greatness. The Hall, however, still hasn't built a reliable notion of what makes a Hall-class relief pitcher, as there are few already in, and they're not all that similar -- Wilhelm, Eckersley, Fingers, Sutter. And the leading future candidates -- Gossage, Rivera, Hoffman -- won't really improve the issue right away. Nen, however, is not of the same cut as the men just named. Maybe someday, as the concept of a Hall-class reliever starts to gel, he'll look a lot better, but right now there are better closers waiting ahead of him.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: below 5%, relegated. Though I'll be quite happy if he skirts past and gets on the ballot again next year.
More to come, should finish up the candidates in one more post.
The Hall's 2008 Writers Ballot -- The Player Candidates, Part 2
Continuing with the candidates on the BBWAA's players ballot, voting returns to be announced Tuesday, 08-January-2008.
7. Shawon Dunston
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 18 seasons (1985-2002) with the *Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Indians, St. Louis Cardinals, and New York Mets.
Peak season: 1995 -- 14 HR, 69 RBI, .296/.317/.472, 107 OPS+, 68 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1997 was pretty good by his own standards, but Dunston isn't on the ballot for his hitting.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections. First overall draft pick in 1982.
Dunston is noted for having a rocket of a throwing arm, making the throw across the diamond to first with ease. He was quite good defensively, above league average in range factor for the first part of his career. But he spent a lot of time injured in 1992 and 1993, and was rarely more than a part-time player afterwards. Wouldn't take a walk if spotted a 3-0 count. Defensive-based candidate players need that touch of legend, and Dunston doesn't have it.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: one and out, below 5%, relegated.
8. Chuck Finley
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 17 seasons (1986-2002) with the *California/Anaheim Angels, Cleveland Indians, and St. Louis Cardinals.
Peak season: 1990 -- 18-9, 2.40, 177 K, 7 CG, 2 ShO, 236 IP, 158 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1989, 1993, 1998.
Primary position: LH starting pitcher, though he was a middle reliever for his first two seasons.
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections, led AL in complete games in 1993 (with 13), innings pitched and starts in 1994. The only pitcher in major league history to have a four strikeout inning more than once, and he did it three times. 200 wins, .536 winning percentage, 2610 strikeouts. Used to be married to actress Tawny Kitaen, which makes no difference to his baseball career but a touch of even C-list celebrity never hurts.
Finley was a good and useful pitcher for a long stretch, but other than the four seasons cited above, he never demonstrated greatness (and even those four are not that great). It's good to have a reliable, above-average pitcher to put on the mound, but that doesn't get one into the Hall. There are better starting pitchers than Finley who haven't yet gotten the call.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: 9% return, avoids relegation for a few years.
9. Travis Fryman
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 13 seasons (1990-2002) with the *Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians.
Peak season: 1993 -- 182 hits, 22 HR, 97 RBI, 37 doubles, 77 walks, .300/.379/.486, 133 OPS+, 117 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1990 (short rookie season), 2000.
Primary position: third base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections (one start), one AL Gold Glove at Third Base, one AL Silver Slugger at Shortstop.
A useful player, decent power, a little above league average with the glove and could play shortstop in a pinch. Nothing here indicates Hall-class greatness. This ballot has a woefully thin crop of first-timers, some of whom appear to be filler for the sake of appearances. Fryman wasn't a bad player, but he's nowhere near Hall level.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: under 5%, relegated.
10. Rich "Goose" Gossage
Years on ballot: 8.
Peak return: 71.2% (2007)
2007 return: 71.2%
Career: 22 seasons (1972-89, 1991-94) with the Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, *New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Oakland Athletics, and Seattle Mariners.
Peak season: 1981 -- 3-2, 20 saves, 0.77, 48 K, 461 ERA+ (!), 0.771 WHIP.
Other outstanding seasons: 1975, 1977, 1978, 1980, 1982, 1983, 1985 -- and he's got some other pretty good ones too, but these are his personal cream.
Primary position: RH relief pitcher / closer.
Honoraria and claims to fame: nine All-Star selections, 1978 AL Rolaids Relief Award, finished third in the 1980 AL Cy Young Award voting (a rarity for a reliever) and also third in the AL MVP voting (extremely rare for a reliever). Led the AL in saves three times. Member (key member) of the 1978 World Series champion Yankees. Very good postseason pitcher -- 2-1, 8 saves, 2.87, 29 K (to 7 walks) in 19 games, 31.1 IP.
Gossage at his peak brought a palpable sense of doom with him when he came out of the bullpen. That's it, show's over, the Goose is coming in to do the cooking. And he did so, more often than not. Devastating fastball. Finished with 310 career saves, which doesn't look amazing today but was something special back then (ranked fourth all-time when he retired after the 1994 season). Probably hung on longer than he should have; after his peak was over, around 1986, he was still a good pitcher but stopped closing games a few years later. None of that, however, diminishes what he did do in his long, amazing peak. Received votes for the CYA and MVP Awards in five different seasons (always in the same season), and relievers just don't pull that sort of recognition today. Gossage was a brilliant reliever and practically a force of nature when he was on his game.
He was also the last pitcher active who had played (and batted) in the pre-designated hitter AL, going 0-16 with 11 strikeouts for the 1972 Chicago White Sox. Means nothing here, but someday maybe you'll win a trivia contest with this tidbit.
Oh, one more bit of trivia -- Gossage recorded his 308th save in the same game that Nolan Ryan recorded his 308th win. You could look it up.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes!
Prediction: the happy ending at last, elected to the Hall Of Fame with 79%.
11. Tommy John
Years on ballot: 13.
Peak return: 29.6% (2006).
2007 return: 22.9%
Career: 26 seasons (1963-74, '76-89) with the Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, *Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, California Angels, and Oakland Athletics.
Peak season: 1968 (wasn't it for just about any pitcher?) -- 10-5, 1.98, 117 K, 161 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1974, 1977, 1979, 1981. But in one way, his 1976 season was his most amazing, as no one ever expected him to pitch at all.
Primary position: LH starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections, three coming after 1975. Led the AL in shutouts three times, winning percentage once. First baseball player to undergo ligament replacement surgery, a procedure which now informally bears his name: Tommy John surgery.
John was a good pitcher for a very long time, but let's cut to the chase -- his lasting claim to fame was his reconstructed elbow, a procedure pioneered by Dr. Frank Jobe, which caused him to miss the entire 1975 season but put him back on the diamond in 1976. John himself is known to joke about his left arm being 30 years younger than he is. The procedure is now essentially routine, and rehab is down to about nine months. John deserves credit for trying it and making a successful return, but that alone isn't enough to get him into the Hall, nor does he have any great seasons of the sort I like to see. John had his only three 20+ win seasons in the five years after his return, but after that he faded to league average (or worse) and, although he made a good attempt at reaching 300 wins, it was not to be, ending with 288. Some people don't like "accumulators", and John was one of those (I don't have a strong opinion either way, as I prefer to look for great seasons than career summary stats.) Good pitcher and an all-time trivia answer, but not Hall-class.
I selected the Dodgers as John's primary team despite his spending more seasons with the White Sox and Yankees, because it was his one year in LA when he did not play that gives him a lot of his historical weight. Not enough, though.
If the Hall ever decides to stand Dr. Jobe for consideration, however, I'll be foursquare behind his candidacy. The impact his procedure and subsequent research has had on the game (and other sports, and so many people) has been enormous and positive. He'd look great on a plaque.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: another ho-hum, around 25% return, with one final ballot next year before his candidacy expires.
12. David Justice
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 14 seasons (1989-2002) with the *Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Indians, New York Yankees, and Oakland Athletics.
Peak season: 1997 -- 33 HR, 101 RBI, 80 walks, .329/.418/.596, 158 OPS+, 124 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 2000.
Primary position: right field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (two starts), 1990 NL ROY, two Silver Sluggers for Outfield (one NL, one AL), 2000 ALCS MVP. Member of the 1995 World Series champion Braves, smacking a solo homer for the entire scoring in the 1-0 Game 6 clincher. Also a member of the 2000 World Series champion Yankees. Briefly married to actress Halle Berry (touch of celebrity, again).
By virtue of joining the Braves just as the team's ascendancy began, and then moving to the Indians, Yankees, and Athletics, Justice played in the postseason ten of his 14 seasons -- missing the first two when the Braves were poor, 1994 when there was no playoffs, and 1996 when he was injured. As a result, his 112 postseason games played rank third (behind Derek Jeter and Bernie Williams).
Aside from the Cy Young Award-winning pitchers, Justice was the star of the first half of the Braves dynasty. Very good hitter, average defensively. He was the right man in the right place at the right time for the Braves. But he was never a Hall-class, great player.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: just dodges relegation with 6% return.
Just under half complete... more soon.
7. Shawon Dunston
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 18 seasons (1985-2002) with the *Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Indians, St. Louis Cardinals, and New York Mets.
Peak season: 1995 -- 14 HR, 69 RBI, .296/.317/.472, 107 OPS+, 68 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1997 was pretty good by his own standards, but Dunston isn't on the ballot for his hitting.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections. First overall draft pick in 1982.
Dunston is noted for having a rocket of a throwing arm, making the throw across the diamond to first with ease. He was quite good defensively, above league average in range factor for the first part of his career. But he spent a lot of time injured in 1992 and 1993, and was rarely more than a part-time player afterwards. Wouldn't take a walk if spotted a 3-0 count. Defensive-based candidate players need that touch of legend, and Dunston doesn't have it.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: one and out, below 5%, relegated.
8. Chuck Finley
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 17 seasons (1986-2002) with the *California/Anaheim Angels, Cleveland Indians, and St. Louis Cardinals.
Peak season: 1990 -- 18-9, 2.40, 177 K, 7 CG, 2 ShO, 236 IP, 158 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1989, 1993, 1998.
Primary position: LH starting pitcher, though he was a middle reliever for his first two seasons.
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections, led AL in complete games in 1993 (with 13), innings pitched and starts in 1994. The only pitcher in major league history to have a four strikeout inning more than once, and he did it three times. 200 wins, .536 winning percentage, 2610 strikeouts. Used to be married to actress Tawny Kitaen, which makes no difference to his baseball career but a touch of even C-list celebrity never hurts.
Finley was a good and useful pitcher for a long stretch, but other than the four seasons cited above, he never demonstrated greatness (and even those four are not that great). It's good to have a reliable, above-average pitcher to put on the mound, but that doesn't get one into the Hall. There are better starting pitchers than Finley who haven't yet gotten the call.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: 9% return, avoids relegation for a few years.
9. Travis Fryman
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 13 seasons (1990-2002) with the *Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians.
Peak season: 1993 -- 182 hits, 22 HR, 97 RBI, 37 doubles, 77 walks, .300/.379/.486, 133 OPS+, 117 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1990 (short rookie season), 2000.
Primary position: third base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections (one start), one AL Gold Glove at Third Base, one AL Silver Slugger at Shortstop.
A useful player, decent power, a little above league average with the glove and could play shortstop in a pinch. Nothing here indicates Hall-class greatness. This ballot has a woefully thin crop of first-timers, some of whom appear to be filler for the sake of appearances. Fryman wasn't a bad player, but he's nowhere near Hall level.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: under 5%, relegated.
10. Rich "Goose" Gossage
Years on ballot: 8.
Peak return: 71.2% (2007)
2007 return: 71.2%
Career: 22 seasons (1972-89, 1991-94) with the Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, *New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Texas Rangers, Oakland Athletics, and Seattle Mariners.
Peak season: 1981 -- 3-2, 20 saves, 0.77, 48 K, 461 ERA+ (!), 0.771 WHIP.
Other outstanding seasons: 1975, 1977, 1978, 1980, 1982, 1983, 1985 -- and he's got some other pretty good ones too, but these are his personal cream.
Primary position: RH relief pitcher / closer.
Honoraria and claims to fame: nine All-Star selections, 1978 AL Rolaids Relief Award, finished third in the 1980 AL Cy Young Award voting (a rarity for a reliever) and also third in the AL MVP voting (extremely rare for a reliever). Led the AL in saves three times. Member (key member) of the 1978 World Series champion Yankees. Very good postseason pitcher -- 2-1, 8 saves, 2.87, 29 K (to 7 walks) in 19 games, 31.1 IP.
Gossage at his peak brought a palpable sense of doom with him when he came out of the bullpen. That's it, show's over, the Goose is coming in to do the cooking. And he did so, more often than not. Devastating fastball. Finished with 310 career saves, which doesn't look amazing today but was something special back then (ranked fourth all-time when he retired after the 1994 season). Probably hung on longer than he should have; after his peak was over, around 1986, he was still a good pitcher but stopped closing games a few years later. None of that, however, diminishes what he did do in his long, amazing peak. Received votes for the CYA and MVP Awards in five different seasons (always in the same season), and relievers just don't pull that sort of recognition today. Gossage was a brilliant reliever and practically a force of nature when he was on his game.
He was also the last pitcher active who had played (and batted) in the pre-designated hitter AL, going 0-16 with 11 strikeouts for the 1972 Chicago White Sox. Means nothing here, but someday maybe you'll win a trivia contest with this tidbit.
Oh, one more bit of trivia -- Gossage recorded his 308th save in the same game that Nolan Ryan recorded his 308th win. You could look it up.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes!
Prediction: the happy ending at last, elected to the Hall Of Fame with 79%.
11. Tommy John
Years on ballot: 13.
Peak return: 29.6% (2006).
2007 return: 22.9%
Career: 26 seasons (1963-74, '76-89) with the Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, *Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, California Angels, and Oakland Athletics.
Peak season: 1968 (wasn't it for just about any pitcher?) -- 10-5, 1.98, 117 K, 161 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1974, 1977, 1979, 1981. But in one way, his 1976 season was his most amazing, as no one ever expected him to pitch at all.
Primary position: LH starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections, three coming after 1975. Led the AL in shutouts three times, winning percentage once. First baseball player to undergo ligament replacement surgery, a procedure which now informally bears his name: Tommy John surgery.
John was a good pitcher for a very long time, but let's cut to the chase -- his lasting claim to fame was his reconstructed elbow, a procedure pioneered by Dr. Frank Jobe, which caused him to miss the entire 1975 season but put him back on the diamond in 1976. John himself is known to joke about his left arm being 30 years younger than he is. The procedure is now essentially routine, and rehab is down to about nine months. John deserves credit for trying it and making a successful return, but that alone isn't enough to get him into the Hall, nor does he have any great seasons of the sort I like to see. John had his only three 20+ win seasons in the five years after his return, but after that he faded to league average (or worse) and, although he made a good attempt at reaching 300 wins, it was not to be, ending with 288. Some people don't like "accumulators", and John was one of those (I don't have a strong opinion either way, as I prefer to look for great seasons than career summary stats.) Good pitcher and an all-time trivia answer, but not Hall-class.
I selected the Dodgers as John's primary team despite his spending more seasons with the White Sox and Yankees, because it was his one year in LA when he did not play that gives him a lot of his historical weight. Not enough, though.
If the Hall ever decides to stand Dr. Jobe for consideration, however, I'll be foursquare behind his candidacy. The impact his procedure and subsequent research has had on the game (and other sports, and so many people) has been enormous and positive. He'd look great on a plaque.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: another ho-hum, around 25% return, with one final ballot next year before his candidacy expires.
12. David Justice
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 14 seasons (1989-2002) with the *Atlanta Braves, Cleveland Indians, New York Yankees, and Oakland Athletics.
Peak season: 1997 -- 33 HR, 101 RBI, 80 walks, .329/.418/.596, 158 OPS+, 124 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 2000.
Primary position: right field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (two starts), 1990 NL ROY, two Silver Sluggers for Outfield (one NL, one AL), 2000 ALCS MVP. Member of the 1995 World Series champion Braves, smacking a solo homer for the entire scoring in the 1-0 Game 6 clincher. Also a member of the 2000 World Series champion Yankees. Briefly married to actress Halle Berry (touch of celebrity, again).
By virtue of joining the Braves just as the team's ascendancy began, and then moving to the Indians, Yankees, and Athletics, Justice played in the postseason ten of his 14 seasons -- missing the first two when the Braves were poor, 1994 when there was no playoffs, and 1996 when he was injured. As a result, his 112 postseason games played rank third (behind Derek Jeter and Bernie Williams).
Aside from the Cy Young Award-winning pitchers, Justice was the star of the first half of the Braves dynasty. Very good hitter, average defensively. He was the right man in the right place at the right time for the Braves. But he was never a Hall-class, great player.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: just dodges relegation with 6% return.
Just under half complete... more soon.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
The Hall's 2008 Writers Ballot -- The Player Candidates, Part 1
There's 25 names on the BBWAA players ballot. I'll try to knock them all out in four posts or less, but we'll see.
Let us use the ever-popular alphabetical order. Where a team played for is marked with an asterisk "*", that's the team I consider to be the player's primary team, the one that would be on the plaque cap if elected. Some of these are obvious (single-team players, or those with one particularly long tenure), but I'll explain the few that are a bit slipperier.
Some background points: I tend to put more emphasis on seasons (especially great seasons) than career summary statistics. And I'll say more about those I support for the Hall than those I do not, as there's little point in arguing against a player for the Hall, since that is the default state.
Onward.
1. Brady Anderson
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 15 seasons (1988-2002) with the Boston Red Sox, *Baltimore Orioles, and Cleveland Indians.
Peak season: 1996, by a mile -- 117 runs, 50 HR, 110 RBI, .297/.396/.637, 156 OPS+, 150 runs created.
Primary position: center field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (two starts), led the AL in hit-by-pitch three times (ouch!), darn good hitter in the postseason (.300/.380/.575 in 19 games, 80 AB).
A good outfielder for a long span of seasons, but only one genuinely great year, and coming as it did during the steroids-suspicion era, maybe he was using the magic waters (I really do not care, but many others do). But outside of his 1996 monster year, he was around league-average (sometimes above, sometimes below). Above average fielder but nothing great. Good player, sure, but the Hall looks for greatness.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: one and out; gets below 5% return and is relegated.
2. Harold Baines
Years on ballot: 1.
Peak return: 5.3% (2007).
2007 return: 5.3%
Career: 22 seasons (1980-2001) with the *Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Oakland Athletics, Baltimore Orioles, and Cleveland Indians.
Peak season: 1984 -- 29 HR (career high), 94 RBI, .304/.361/.541, 142 OPS+, 109 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1989, 1991, 1996.
Primary position: right field for seven seasons, then designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections (one start), one Silver Slugger, led the AL in slugging average in 1984. Good postseason hitter (.324/.378/.510 in 31 G, 102 AB). Jersey #3 retired by the White Sox (before he had retired as a player, so he wore it again when he returned to the South Side later in his career). His career 1628 RBI currently enable Baines to hold the title of "Most RBI Not In The Hall", a title which eventually got Tony Perez in, and one which Baines is likely to hold until Rafael Palmeiro reaches the ballot.
Baines was a good hitter, but not a great one -- even his best seasons were not earth-shaking -- and as a DH, he doesn't have any defensive value to fall back upon. His candidacy barely scraped past relegation on his first ballot, and I don't think it's going to survive a second.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: below 5% return, and relegated.
3. Rod Beck
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 13 seasons (1991-2001, 2003-04) with the *San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, and San Diego Padres.
Peak season: 1993 -- 48 saves, 3-1, 2.16 ERA, 86 K, 180 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 2000, 2003.
Primary position: RH relief pitcher / closer (704 games pitched, zero starts).
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (obviously, zero starts), 1994 National League Rolaids Relief Award (yes, this is a real, MLB-sanctioned award). Career 286 saves. Well-earned reputation for being a "regular guy" who liked yakking with the fans and enjoyed a can or two of beer. Swung his pitching arm like a pendulum while checking the signs, which was an entertaining quirk.
Let's first clear up a misconception. Beck, sadly, died earlier this year; had he lived, he wouldn't have qualified for the Hall ballot until the 2010 election. His candidacy was not, however, granted a waiver, or any other special conditions as inaccurately described in the media. The Hall's rules for the BBWAA elections includes Rule 3, which defines eligibility, and while 3(C) spells out the standard five-year waiting period before consideration, it also includes 3(D), which grants accelerated consideration in the event of the death of a potential candidate. The exact language:
In case of the death of an active player or a player who has been retired for less than five (5) full years, a candidate who is otherwise eligible shall be eligible in the next regular election held at least six (6) months after the date of death or after the end of the five (5) year period, whichever occurs first.
Beck died on 23-June-2007, so the six month window is almost expired (ballots have to be returned by 31-December, IIRC, so this is good enough), and he is eligible for the December 2007 ballot (considered the 2008 election). The rules cover his rare case -- this was first codified following Roberto Clemente's special election, and has since been used for Thurman Munson and Darryl Kile as well -- and no waiver is necessary. Just clarifying that; Beck gets accelerated consideration, but this is already defined. RIP, Rod.
Moving on from administrivia, Beck was a very good reliever and a darn good showman, and the Hall's notions of worthy relievers is still in flux, but Beck isn't going to help define that notion from the inside. Not a Hall-worthy career. Sorry, Rod.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: one and out; below 5%, relegated.
4. Bert Blyleven
Years on ballot: 10.
Peak return: 53.3% (2006).
2007 return: 47.7%
Career: 22 seasons (1970-90, 1992) with the *Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Indians, and California Angels.
Peak season: 1973 -- 20-17, 2.52, 258 K, 158 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1974, 1977, 1984, 1989.
Primary position: RH starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Let's start with his current title -- Best Eligible Pitcher Not In The Hall -- and get back to this in a bit. Two All-Star selections, led AL in strikeouts once and shutouts three times. Fifth highest career strikeout total, third highest when he retired. 287 career wins, which is tantalizingly close to 300. Member of two World Series champion teams, the 1979 Pirates and the 1987 Twins, and contributed well to both -- excellent postseason pitcher, 5-1, 2.47 in 8 games, 6 starts, 47.1 IP, 36 K, 8 BB.
Blyleven -- ah, Blyleven. The worthiest pitcher not in the Hall, and well deserving of being moved to the other side of the velvet rope. Underappreciated in his own time and still today. If he'd reached 300 wins -- and given back a full 1981 or a healthy 1982 or 1991 (which he missed entirely, coming back for one last season at age 41), he probably would have -- he'd have been ushered in long ago. Instead, he lingers, high in ballot returns but not yet enough, and running short on the ballot clock. While I think there are few injustices of players overlooked for the Hall across the long span of baseball history, Blyleven is, alas, one of those few. Had some genuinely great seasons, and a lot of good ones. Delivered a lot of on-field value. Devastating curveball, textbook class. Sixty career shutouts, which ranks 9th all time, and in the post-WWII era, he ranks 4th, behind HOFers Spahn (63), Ryan (61), and Seaver (61), so he's right in the neighborhood of some very good company. "Only" won 20 games once (1973) but put up plenty of Ws regardless. Comparisons to Kaat or John are superficial and based upon nothing but proximal career win totals (Kitty had 283, John 288), as Blyleven beats both of them soundly in just about any other stat; he was a definitively better pitcher. I don't know what it is that the voters do not see in this man's career that doesn't appear to measure up, unless it's that damnable "fell short of 300 wins" thing, which hasn't prevented other, certainly worthy, pitchers from winning election. Blyleven's plaque is long overdue. As noted, he is The Best Eligible Pitcher Not In The Hall, and he needs to pass on that title (probably to Jack Morris) with the happy ending (election!) and not the sad ending (ballot eligibility expiration). Bert For The Hall!!!
Chipmaker's vote: YES!
Prediction: surpasses 60%. That the next few ballots are weak on platinum candidates only helps the cause.
5. Dave Concepcíon
Years on ballot: 14.
Peak return: 16.9% (1998).
2007 return: 13.6%
Career: 19 seasons (1970-88) with the *Cincinnati Reds.
Peak season: 1978 -- 170 hits, 6 HR, 33 doubles (career high), .301/.357/.405, 114 OPS+, 82 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1974, 1976, 1981, but let's not pretend that this man was on the field for his hitting.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: nine All-Star selections (five starts), 1982 All-Star Game MVP, five NL Gold Gloves for Shortstop, two NL Silver Sluggers for Shortstop, member (and a valuable one) of the legendary Big Red Machine, the 1970s Reds dreadnought, which won two World Series championships (1975-76), two other NL pennants (1970, '72), and two other NL West titles (1973, when Concepcíon was injured, and the last gasp in 1979). Jersey #13 retired by the Reds.
Concepcíon was a decent hitter, but that's all he had to be when surrounded by Bench and Morgan and Foster and Griffey and Rose. He was a player for his glove, and he was very good on defense, the sort a champion team likes to have and sometimes even needs. And, for his efforts, he was awarded a plurality of Gold Gloves and even more All-Star selections. All of that, I think, is the right amount of honoraria for Concepcíon -- the Hall should be about more than offense (and his bat certainly isn't why he's on the ballot), but defense is still sufficiently slippery to evaluate that defense-dominant players need a measure of legend to convince voters (and unbiased fans) that their candidacy is worthy of the bronze plaque. I'm not at all sure that this is how defensive players should be approached, but it is how the writer electorate treats such players. Concepcíon has only once convinced 1/6 of the electorate that he merits their votes, and even in this election, his last time on the writers ballot, I don't think he'll improve on that, certainly not enough. I agree with the writers -- good player, very good defensive shortstop, but not enough for the Hall.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: "last ballot" sympathy lets him crack 20%, but that's all, folks.
6. Andre Dawson
Years on ballot: 6.
Peak return: 61.0% (2006).
2007 return: 56.7%
Career: 21 seasons (1976-96) with the *Montréal Expos, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, and Florida Marlins.
Peak season: 1981 -- 24 HR, 64 RBI, .302/.365/.553 in 103 games (the Expos played only 108 games in the strike-split season, which was the most of any NL East team), 157 OPS+, 83 RC (which would pro-rate to around 124 RC in 154 games played).
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1983, 1987, 1988, 1990.
Primary position: center field when he was younger, right field when he was older.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 1987 NL MVP, 1977 NL ROY, eight All-Star selections (seven starts, five at CF and two at RF), eight NL Gold Gloves for outfield, four NL Silver Sluggers for outfield, led NL in hits in 1983, home runs and RBI in 1987, and in hit-by-pitch four times (ouch!). Career 438 homers, 1591 RBI, 2774 hits. Jersey #10 retired by the Expos.
I have a standing evaluation of Dawson and a few other players: he'd look good on a plaque, but the Hall is not a lesser institution for his absence. The thing about Dawson's career that bothers me the most is his on-base percentage -- peak season of .365, career .323. If elected, that would be the lowest OBP by a primary outfielder by about 20 points (Brock and Yount are in the low .340s). It's not the number itself that irritates me, but rather what it indicates about how he played his game. Dawson made a LOT of outs, and outs are bad. He currently ranks 21st in career outs, and while all the men above him are either in the Hall, will be some day (Henderson, Biggio), are ineligible (Rose), or are doomed (Palmeiro), being in such good company doesn't give him an automatic induction. I realize his 438 homers are a lot shinier than his .323 OBP, and everyone likes him, and expect some day the writers will vote him in. I'm just not convinced; truly great players should know how to take a walk. I'll be happy for him the day he gets the nod, though.
I realize I did not select his 1987 NL MVP season as his peak performance season. While it certainly was an impressive season, it wasn't really a great one, and if I'd had a vote for the NL MVP Award that year it probably would have gone to Ozzie Smith. Well, someone had to win it.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: surpasses 68%, essentially entering the electoral promised land, and gets elected either in 2009 or 2010. (Which will be a good thing, because Dawson and Raines are the last chances for an Expos player to be honored in the Hall. Yes, eventually there's Guerrero and Martinez, but they'll go in under other team logos.)
More soon....
Let us use the ever-popular alphabetical order. Where a team played for is marked with an asterisk "*", that's the team I consider to be the player's primary team, the one that would be on the plaque cap if elected. Some of these are obvious (single-team players, or those with one particularly long tenure), but I'll explain the few that are a bit slipperier.
Some background points: I tend to put more emphasis on seasons (especially great seasons) than career summary statistics. And I'll say more about those I support for the Hall than those I do not, as there's little point in arguing against a player for the Hall, since that is the default state.
Onward.
1. Brady Anderson
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 15 seasons (1988-2002) with the Boston Red Sox, *Baltimore Orioles, and Cleveland Indians.
Peak season: 1996, by a mile -- 117 runs, 50 HR, 110 RBI, .297/.396/.637, 156 OPS+, 150 runs created.
Primary position: center field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (two starts), led the AL in hit-by-pitch three times (ouch!), darn good hitter in the postseason (.300/.380/.575 in 19 games, 80 AB).
A good outfielder for a long span of seasons, but only one genuinely great year, and coming as it did during the steroids-suspicion era, maybe he was using the magic waters (I really do not care, but many others do). But outside of his 1996 monster year, he was around league-average (sometimes above, sometimes below). Above average fielder but nothing great. Good player, sure, but the Hall looks for greatness.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: one and out; gets below 5% return and is relegated.
2. Harold Baines
Years on ballot: 1.
Peak return: 5.3% (2007).
2007 return: 5.3%
Career: 22 seasons (1980-2001) with the *Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Oakland Athletics, Baltimore Orioles, and Cleveland Indians.
Peak season: 1984 -- 29 HR (career high), 94 RBI, .304/.361/.541, 142 OPS+, 109 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1989, 1991, 1996.
Primary position: right field for seven seasons, then designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections (one start), one Silver Slugger, led the AL in slugging average in 1984. Good postseason hitter (.324/.378/.510 in 31 G, 102 AB). Jersey #3 retired by the White Sox (before he had retired as a player, so he wore it again when he returned to the South Side later in his career). His career 1628 RBI currently enable Baines to hold the title of "Most RBI Not In The Hall", a title which eventually got Tony Perez in, and one which Baines is likely to hold until Rafael Palmeiro reaches the ballot.
Baines was a good hitter, but not a great one -- even his best seasons were not earth-shaking -- and as a DH, he doesn't have any defensive value to fall back upon. His candidacy barely scraped past relegation on his first ballot, and I don't think it's going to survive a second.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: below 5% return, and relegated.
3. Rod Beck
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 13 seasons (1991-2001, 2003-04) with the *San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, and San Diego Padres.
Peak season: 1993 -- 48 saves, 3-1, 2.16 ERA, 86 K, 180 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 2000, 2003.
Primary position: RH relief pitcher / closer (704 games pitched, zero starts).
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (obviously, zero starts), 1994 National League Rolaids Relief Award (yes, this is a real, MLB-sanctioned award). Career 286 saves. Well-earned reputation for being a "regular guy" who liked yakking with the fans and enjoyed a can or two of beer. Swung his pitching arm like a pendulum while checking the signs, which was an entertaining quirk.
Let's first clear up a misconception. Beck, sadly, died earlier this year; had he lived, he wouldn't have qualified for the Hall ballot until the 2010 election. His candidacy was not, however, granted a waiver, or any other special conditions as inaccurately described in the media. The Hall's rules for the BBWAA elections includes Rule 3, which defines eligibility, and while 3(C) spells out the standard five-year waiting period before consideration, it also includes 3(D), which grants accelerated consideration in the event of the death of a potential candidate. The exact language:
In case of the death of an active player or a player who has been retired for less than five (5) full years, a candidate who is otherwise eligible shall be eligible in the next regular election held at least six (6) months after the date of death or after the end of the five (5) year period, whichever occurs first.
Beck died on 23-June-2007, so the six month window is almost expired (ballots have to be returned by 31-December, IIRC, so this is good enough), and he is eligible for the December 2007 ballot (considered the 2008 election). The rules cover his rare case -- this was first codified following Roberto Clemente's special election, and has since been used for Thurman Munson and Darryl Kile as well -- and no waiver is necessary. Just clarifying that; Beck gets accelerated consideration, but this is already defined. RIP, Rod.
Moving on from administrivia, Beck was a very good reliever and a darn good showman, and the Hall's notions of worthy relievers is still in flux, but Beck isn't going to help define that notion from the inside. Not a Hall-worthy career. Sorry, Rod.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: one and out; below 5%, relegated.
4. Bert Blyleven
Years on ballot: 10.
Peak return: 53.3% (2006).
2007 return: 47.7%
Career: 22 seasons (1970-90, 1992) with the *Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Indians, and California Angels.
Peak season: 1973 -- 20-17, 2.52, 258 K, 158 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1974, 1977, 1984, 1989.
Primary position: RH starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Let's start with his current title -- Best Eligible Pitcher Not In The Hall -- and get back to this in a bit. Two All-Star selections, led AL in strikeouts once and shutouts three times. Fifth highest career strikeout total, third highest when he retired. 287 career wins, which is tantalizingly close to 300. Member of two World Series champion teams, the 1979 Pirates and the 1987 Twins, and contributed well to both -- excellent postseason pitcher, 5-1, 2.47 in 8 games, 6 starts, 47.1 IP, 36 K, 8 BB.
Blyleven -- ah, Blyleven. The worthiest pitcher not in the Hall, and well deserving of being moved to the other side of the velvet rope. Underappreciated in his own time and still today. If he'd reached 300 wins -- and given back a full 1981 or a healthy 1982 or 1991 (which he missed entirely, coming back for one last season at age 41), he probably would have -- he'd have been ushered in long ago. Instead, he lingers, high in ballot returns but not yet enough, and running short on the ballot clock. While I think there are few injustices of players overlooked for the Hall across the long span of baseball history, Blyleven is, alas, one of those few. Had some genuinely great seasons, and a lot of good ones. Delivered a lot of on-field value. Devastating curveball, textbook class. Sixty career shutouts, which ranks 9th all time, and in the post-WWII era, he ranks 4th, behind HOFers Spahn (63), Ryan (61), and Seaver (61), so he's right in the neighborhood of some very good company. "Only" won 20 games once (1973) but put up plenty of Ws regardless. Comparisons to Kaat or John are superficial and based upon nothing but proximal career win totals (Kitty had 283, John 288), as Blyleven beats both of them soundly in just about any other stat; he was a definitively better pitcher. I don't know what it is that the voters do not see in this man's career that doesn't appear to measure up, unless it's that damnable "fell short of 300 wins" thing, which hasn't prevented other, certainly worthy, pitchers from winning election. Blyleven's plaque is long overdue. As noted, he is The Best Eligible Pitcher Not In The Hall, and he needs to pass on that title (probably to Jack Morris) with the happy ending (election!) and not the sad ending (ballot eligibility expiration). Bert For The Hall!!!
Chipmaker's vote: YES!
Prediction: surpasses 60%. That the next few ballots are weak on platinum candidates only helps the cause.
5. Dave Concepcíon
Years on ballot: 14.
Peak return: 16.9% (1998).
2007 return: 13.6%
Career: 19 seasons (1970-88) with the *Cincinnati Reds.
Peak season: 1978 -- 170 hits, 6 HR, 33 doubles (career high), .301/.357/.405, 114 OPS+, 82 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1974, 1976, 1981, but let's not pretend that this man was on the field for his hitting.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: nine All-Star selections (five starts), 1982 All-Star Game MVP, five NL Gold Gloves for Shortstop, two NL Silver Sluggers for Shortstop, member (and a valuable one) of the legendary Big Red Machine, the 1970s Reds dreadnought, which won two World Series championships (1975-76), two other NL pennants (1970, '72), and two other NL West titles (1973, when Concepcíon was injured, and the last gasp in 1979). Jersey #13 retired by the Reds.
Concepcíon was a decent hitter, but that's all he had to be when surrounded by Bench and Morgan and Foster and Griffey and Rose. He was a player for his glove, and he was very good on defense, the sort a champion team likes to have and sometimes even needs. And, for his efforts, he was awarded a plurality of Gold Gloves and even more All-Star selections. All of that, I think, is the right amount of honoraria for Concepcíon -- the Hall should be about more than offense (and his bat certainly isn't why he's on the ballot), but defense is still sufficiently slippery to evaluate that defense-dominant players need a measure of legend to convince voters (and unbiased fans) that their candidacy is worthy of the bronze plaque. I'm not at all sure that this is how defensive players should be approached, but it is how the writer electorate treats such players. Concepcíon has only once convinced 1/6 of the electorate that he merits their votes, and even in this election, his last time on the writers ballot, I don't think he'll improve on that, certainly not enough. I agree with the writers -- good player, very good defensive shortstop, but not enough for the Hall.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: "last ballot" sympathy lets him crack 20%, but that's all, folks.
6. Andre Dawson
Years on ballot: 6.
Peak return: 61.0% (2006).
2007 return: 56.7%
Career: 21 seasons (1976-96) with the *Montréal Expos, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, and Florida Marlins.
Peak season: 1981 -- 24 HR, 64 RBI, .302/.365/.553 in 103 games (the Expos played only 108 games in the strike-split season, which was the most of any NL East team), 157 OPS+, 83 RC (which would pro-rate to around 124 RC in 154 games played).
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1983, 1987, 1988, 1990.
Primary position: center field when he was younger, right field when he was older.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 1987 NL MVP, 1977 NL ROY, eight All-Star selections (seven starts, five at CF and two at RF), eight NL Gold Gloves for outfield, four NL Silver Sluggers for outfield, led NL in hits in 1983, home runs and RBI in 1987, and in hit-by-pitch four times (ouch!). Career 438 homers, 1591 RBI, 2774 hits. Jersey #10 retired by the Expos.
I have a standing evaluation of Dawson and a few other players: he'd look good on a plaque, but the Hall is not a lesser institution for his absence. The thing about Dawson's career that bothers me the most is his on-base percentage -- peak season of .365, career .323. If elected, that would be the lowest OBP by a primary outfielder by about 20 points (Brock and Yount are in the low .340s). It's not the number itself that irritates me, but rather what it indicates about how he played his game. Dawson made a LOT of outs, and outs are bad. He currently ranks 21st in career outs, and while all the men above him are either in the Hall, will be some day (Henderson, Biggio), are ineligible (Rose), or are doomed (Palmeiro), being in such good company doesn't give him an automatic induction. I realize his 438 homers are a lot shinier than his .323 OBP, and everyone likes him, and expect some day the writers will vote him in. I'm just not convinced; truly great players should know how to take a walk. I'll be happy for him the day he gets the nod, though.
I realize I did not select his 1987 NL MVP season as his peak performance season. While it certainly was an impressive season, it wasn't really a great one, and if I'd had a vote for the NL MVP Award that year it probably would have gone to Ozzie Smith. Well, someone had to win it.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: surpasses 68%, essentially entering the electoral promised land, and gets elected either in 2009 or 2010. (Which will be a good thing, because Dawson and Raines are the last chances for an Expos player to be honored in the Hall. Yes, eventually there's Guerrero and Martinez, but they'll go in under other team logos.)
More soon....
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