Finishing off the ballot candidates.
17. Tim Raines (reviewed for the 2008 ballot)
Years on ballot: 1.
Peak return: 24.3% (2008).
2008 return: 24.3%
Career: 23 seasons, 1979-99 & 2001-02 -- *Montréal Expos 1979-90 & 2001, Chicago White Sox 1991-95, New York Yankees 1996-98, Oakland Athletics 1999, Baltimore Orioles 2001, Florida Marlins 2002.
Peak season: 1987 -- 123 runs, 175 hits, 34 doubles, 18 HR, 68 RBI, 50 stolen bases (against five caught steals!), 90 walks, .330/.429/.526, 149 OPS+, 132 RC (and this, after missing all of April due to the collusion conspiracy).
Other outstanding seasons: 1984, 1985, 1986, 1989, 1993.
Primary position: left field. Leadoff hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: seven All-Star selections (two starts), 1987 All-Star Game MVP, one NL Silver Slugger for Outfield, one NL batting championship, led NL in on-base percentage once, runs twice, stolen bases four times. Career 84.7% stolen base success rate is the highest for anyone with 300+ SB; 808 career SB ranks fifth all-time. Member of the 1996 and 1998 World Series champion Yankees. Jersey #30 retired by the Expos.
Esoteric baseball bonus points: Raines was the last active player to wear a batting helmet without the ear flap, and only the second man to play alongside his son (after the Griffey family).
Rock was an excellent leadoff man who had the awkward timing to play exactly concurrently with the greatest leadoff man in history, Rickey Henderson. Raines' peak was masterful, truly great.
Raines and Dawson are the last real chances for a Hall plaque to show off an Expos cap logo.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes!
Prediction: In hoping that his 2008 return was depressed in part due to a "not a first-ballot guy" notion, I say he bumps up to 35%. That would be pleasingly encouraging.
18. Jim Rice (reviewed for the 2008 ballot)
Years on ballot: 14.
Peak return: 72.2% (2008).
2008 return: 72.2%
Career: 16 seasons, 1974-89 -- all with the *Boston Red Sox.
Peak season: 1978 -- 121 runs, 213 hits, 25 doubles, 15 triples (!), 46 HR, 139 RBI, .315/.370/.600, 406 total bases, 157 OPS+, 147 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1977, 1979, 1983, 1986.
Primary position: left field. He did not play designated hitter as much as his detractors think, seeing majority playing time at DH in only four seasons -- his 1974 cuppa coffee; 1977, when he was injured; 1988, his last full season; and 1989, his final season, when he played only 56 games. He was a league average fielder -- but he was legitimately a fielder, playing LF for 3/4 of his career games.
Honoraria and claims to fame: eight All-Star selections (four starts), 1978 AL MVP, two AL Silver Sluggers for Outfield, led the AL in slugging twice, home runs three times, RBI twice, games played once (1978, an AL-record 163).
Rice had a great peak. What happened to him almost seems unfair -- the rapid fade after age 33; the injury that kept him out of the 1975 postseason; having to play one of the toughest fields in the majors, left in Fenway; following a Hall-class act, Yaz, who had his own Hall-class act to follow, Williams, so there was a tradition to uphold; that he was a shy, soft-spoken, black southern man in a notoriously white, northern city. No matter how much his bat said, the media wanted more.
Like with Morris, fans can see the shining greatness if they want to see it. I see more above-average to very good seasons than Hall-class great ones in Rice's career. If he had had a longer, more graceful career tail to retirement; a full 1981 season; a healthy late-1975 season and postseason... but no, and no credit is given for things not done. Rice had a great peak and a good career. For me it has always fallen short -- but not this time.
The vast amounts written in both defense and denunciation of Rice's Hall candidacy come to an end this year; it is his 15th, and final, time on the BBWAA ballot. In 2008 he fell just short, 2.8 percentage points; ten votes would have unlocked the door. Well, enough, I think. That sort of tease needs consummation and closure this year. If Rice were to get a higher percentage and still fall short, that would be the most ungracious kick in the teeth the writers ever have delivered to a Hall candidate. And Rice doesn't deserve that. It's not rational, but enough is enough. Give him the votes. Give him the plaque. Let's finish this the good way, and move on. The Hall surely has lesser players upon its walls. It doesn't need Rice, and Rice doesn't need it, but I say let's have the happy ending.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes. This is my only vote I have changed among the 2008 holdover candidates, and I've done it for a narrative reason. Had the writers delivered a clearer message about Rice during his stay on the ballot -- kept him much lower, or not kept creeping up -- I'd probably still be against him. No longer. Let's get this one over with.
Prediction: Squeaks in, over 75% but below 80%.
19. Lee Smith (reviewed for the 2008 ballot)
Years on ballot: 6.
Peak return: 45.0% (2006).
2008 return: 43.3%
Career: 18 seasons, 1980-97 -- *Chicago Cubs 1980-87, Boston Red Sox 1988-90, St. Louis Cardinals 1990-93, New York Yankees 1993, Baltimore Orioles 1994, California Angels 1995-96, Cincinnati Reds 1996, Montréal Expos 1997.
Peak season: 1991 -- 6-3, 47 saves, 2.34, 67 K (to 13 walks), 157 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1982, 1983, 1987, 1988, 1990, 1994.
Primary position: RH relief pitcher / closer.
Honoraria and claims to fame: seven All-Star selections, three Rolaids Relief Awards (two NL, one AL), led NL in saves three times and AL once. Held the career record for saves from 1993, when he passed Reardon, to 2006, when Hoffman surpassed him, and Smith is still second all-time.
Smith always looked like he had just woken up from a nice nap, and then he'd slam that fastball, get a few strikeouts, and end the game. He moved between teams a lot, and it's not clear why. He put up good numbers until his last season. Teams treated him as being a bit more valuable in trade than on the field, though the trade returns were never impressive. Many closers burn out quickly; Smith endured, and excelled.
I'm not a big Smith proponent for the Hall. Gossage got in last year, and that's a good sign for Smith, but I'm not ready for him.
Chipmaker's vote: No. But I'll vote for Smith before I vote for Orosco.
Prediction: After Gossage helped sharpen the Hall definition for closers, Smith will get an increase to 51%, and over half is very good.
20. Alan Trammell (reviewed for the 2008 ballot)
Years on ballot: 7.
Peak return: 18.2% (2008).
2008 return: 18.2%
Career: 20 seasons, 1977-96 -- all with the *Detroit Tigers.
Peak season: 1987 -- 109 runs, 205 hits, 34 doubles, 28 HR, 105 RBI, 21 stolen bases (against 2 caught steals), .343/.402/.551, 155 OPS+, 137 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1983, 1984, 1988, 1990, 1993.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections, 1984 World Series MVP, four AL Gold Gloves for Shortstop, three AL Silver Sluggers for Shortstop. Member of the 1984 World Series champion Tigers.
Trammell suffers due to two contemporary shortstops -- Ripken, who was a superior hitter, and Smith, who provided excellent (even legendary) defense. Trammell was good at hitting and good at defense but not as extreme as either of his peers, and so doesn't stand out. Some seasons he was well above league-average, others he was below.
I'm still torn. Trammell had a very good career, but not a great one.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: 20%.
21. Greg Vaughn
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 15 seasons, 1989-2003 -- *Milwaukee Brewers 1989-96, San Diego Padres 1996-98, Cincinnati Reds 1999, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 2000-02, Colorado Rockies 2003.
Peak season: 1998 -- 50 HR, 119 RBI, .272/.363/.597, 112 runs, 156 hits, 28 doubles, 156 OPS+, 128 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1993, 1996.
Primary position: left field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections, one NL Silver Slugger for outfield.
Vaughn was a good outfielder but not the sort that could elevate a team to a championship. There is nothing rare nor Hall-class about his career. Good slugging, corner outfielders are not too hard to find. Vaughn had a good career, but not a Hall-worthy, great one.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: With 1475 hits and a .242 career batting average, the writers won't show him much love. One and done, under 5%, relegated.
22. Mo Vaughn
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 12 seasons, 1991-2000 & '02-03 -- *Boston Red Sox 1991-98, Anaheim Angels 1999-2000, New York Mets 2002-03.
Peak season: 1996 -- 44 HR, 143 RBI, .326/.420/.583, 118 runs, 207 hits, 29 doubles, 150 OPS+, 158 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1993, 1994, 1995, 1997, 1998.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 1995 AL MVP, three All-Star selections (one start), one AL Silver Slugger for first base. Led AL in RBI once.
Mitchell report: claimed to have purchased human growth hormone.
Mo was a better hitter than his cousin Greg, and had six seasons that can be considered Hall-worthy from a hitting perspective. He was good defensively. Left Boston in a mess -- dodged a DUI ticket, bickered in the media, signed a huge deal with Anaheim, got injured on Opening Day, missed an entire season (which, coincidentally, I predicted, 13-November-1998*), and was essentially deadwood during his brief Mets tenure. Geez, that's a sloppy way to spend the second half of one's career.
* You can click through, but here's the money quote: "Should Vaughn sign with Anaheim, you'll enjoy two productive seasons (zero postseason appearances), followed by four increasingly poor years with at least one half-season DL stay, and end up praying for the end of the albatross that is the Vaughn contract. " I'd say I nailed it.
But all of that isn't completely germane to his Hall candidacy. Yes, he hit great for six seasons, but not historically great -- I look for OPS+ stats of 140 or higher, and Vaughn wasn't much higher -- and he had a short career. After Boston, he was much less a player, and ended up a train wreck. It just doesn't proclaim Hall worthiness to me, and I cannot support him.
For what it's worth, I'd have voted for Edgar Martinez for the 1995 AL MVP Award, and Albert Belle was a better choice too.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: Mo just avoids relegation with 7%, but I'm probably aiming high and he won't be back on the 2010 ballot.
23. Matt Williams
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 17 seasons, 1987-2003 -- *San Francisco Giants 1987-96, Cleveland Indians 1997, Arizona Diamondbacks 1998-2003.
Peak season: 1994 -- 43 HR, 96 RBI, .267/.319/.607, 74 runs, 199 hits, 141 OPS+, 83 RC, in 112 games. This of course was a strike-shortened season, but if we project his numbers -- 43 HR, 483 plate appearances, 112 of 115 team games played -- he comes out very close to 61 home runs. And had he reached that, tied Maris or broken the record, how exciting would the McGwire-Sosa chase have been a mere four years later? Maris' mark was 37 years old; Williams' would have been only four, a show seen recently. Just something to think about.
Other outstanding seasons: 1991, 1993, 1995, 1996.
Primary position: third base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections (three starts), four Gold Gloves (three NL, one AL) for third base, four Silver Sluggers (again three NL, one AL). Led NL in home runs once, RBI once. Member of the 2001 World Series champion Diamondbacks, and four other postseason teams.
Mitchell report: claimed to have purchased human growth hormone.
Williams was one of the premier third baseman in baseball during his career, a position which has produced fewer HOFers except designated hitter or relief pitcher (both of which are much newer roles; 3Bmen have been around forever). He had a couple of very good years (1995 was a half-season) but otherwise was around league average, and had some injury issues over the years. Williams couldn't take a walk -- his career high was 43 -- and that kept his OBP unpleasantly low. A good player at a tough position (one he played well), but not the sort around which to build a contender team outside of his very best seasons.
Completely irrelevant to his candidacy, but a touch of C-list celebrity always entertains: Williams was married to actress Michelle Johnson for a few years, and if you were a red-blooded male in the right age range to see Blame It On Rio in theaters, you'll always think fondly of Michelle Johnson. I do.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: Williams will get some respect for being good at the hot corner to the tune of 20%. I'm probably very high here. The Hall doesn't need him, but if he ends up getting elected ten years from now, I won't feel at all upset about it.
Summing up.
I support Blyleven, Henderson, McGwire, Murphy, Raines, and Rice for election. If I could vote for only one -- I couldn't. I gotta vote for Henderson, he's easy, and Blyleven, because he deserves it.
Results of the BBWAA ballot are scheduled to be announced on Monday, 12-January-2009, at 1:00 pm Central (because I live in that time zone; if you live elsewhere, do the math).
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