Onward through the ballot.
9. Tommy John (reviewed for the 2008 ballot)
Years on ballot: 14.
Peak return: 29.6% (2006).
2008 return: 29.1%
Career: 26 seasons, 1963-74 & '76-89 -- Cleveland Indians 1963-64, Chicago White Sox 1965-71, *Los Angeles Dodgers 1972-74 & '76-78, New York Yankees 1979-82 & '86-89, California Angels 1982-85, Oakland Athletics 1985.
Peak season: 1968 -- 10-5, 1.98, 117 K, 161 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1974, 1977, 1979, 1981. But his most important season was 1976, as no one ever expected him to pitch at all.
Primary position: LH starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections, three coming after 1975. Led the AL in shutouts three times, winning percentage once. First baseball player to undergo ligament replacement surgery, a procedure which now informally bears his name: Tommy John surgery.
John was a good pitcher for a very long time, but being best known as the answer to a trivia question is not what the Hall seeks to honor. John didn't have any great seasons (maybe 1968, but every pitcher rocked that year), and 26 seasons gave him ample opportunity to put up a few.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: last-ballot sympathy nets him 30%, and then it's on to the Veterans Committee.
10. Don Mattingly (reviewed for the 2008 ballot)
Years on ballot: 8.
Peak return: 28.2% (2001).
2008 return: 15.8%
Career: 14 seasons, 1982-95 -- all with the *New York Yankees.
Peak season: 1986 -- 238 hits, 117 runs, 31 Hr, 113 RBI, 53 doubles, .352/.394/.573, 161 OPS+, 150 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1984, 1985, 1987.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections (one start), 1985 AL MVP, nine AL Gold Gloves at First Base, three AL Silver Sluggers at First Base, 1984 AL batting champion, 1986 AL slugging champion, led AL in hits twice, doubles three times, RBI once. Set the major league single season record for grand slams with six in 1987 (and never hit another in his entire career). Tied the ML record for consecutive games with a home run, with eight. Tied the ML record for most putouts in a game, with 22. Jersey #23 retired by the Yankees.
Donnie Baseball was one of the few Yankees bright spots of the 1980s. Teammate Dave Winfield is in the Hall, and Rickey Henderson is going to storm the gates from this ballot. That's already lot of Hall-class talent from a team that never won its division. Mattingly was one of the hottest players in baseball in 1984-87, but he was league-average after the back injury, and a first baseman isn't going to earn the plaque that way.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: 18%, but that's noise in the signal, not the start of a seismic shift. Legends may grow but the player's career stays the same.
11. Mark McGwire (reviewed for the 2008 ballot)
Years on ballot: 2.
Peak return: 23.6% (2008).
2008 return: 23.6%
Career: 16 seasons, 1986-2001 -- *Oakland Athletics 1986-97, St. Louis Cardinals 1997-2001.
Peak season: 1998 -- 130 runs, then-record 70 HR, 147 RBI, then-NL record 162 walks, .299/.470/.752, 216 OPS+, 193 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, and 2000 even though he played only 89 games.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 12 All-Star selections (six starts), 1987 AL ROY, one AL Gold Glove at First Base, three Silver Sluggers at First Base (one AL, two NL), led his league in OBP twice, SLG four times, home runs four times, RBI once, walks twice. Rookie record 49 HR. Record 70 HR in 1998, since surpassed once. Member of the 1989 World Series champion Athletics. Member of the 500 Home Runs Club (583 career).
People dismissive of McGwire like to claim he was "one-dimensional", though if you ask them about this they never have a firm definition of what that means. What they really want to say is that they think he was a steroid-fueled, Godzilla-class slugger who had the mobility of a concrete block.
McGwire's name is all over the Mitchell Report, but all it really says about him is (a) McGwire used androstenedione, a then-legal and MLB-permitted steroidal precursor, and it was no secret, and (b) teammate Jose Canseco says he introduced Mac to 'roids, and was a user. Well, Joser's credibility is garbage no matter that he's been right sometimes. To the point, I do not at all care what anyone was using prior to the ban enacted in 2003. Baseball is a competitive enterprise that attracts competitive people, and they all love to gain an edge so they can play better and win more. I'm strict on things like rule-breaking, and prior to the ban there were no rules to break.
And we don't know what McGwire was using, if anything, besides androstenedione. Suspect, think, imagine, but not know. And that is an important distinction. The voting writers probably factor in their suspicions. I do not.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes.
Prediction: McGwire got the exact same vote total, 128, in both 2007 and 2008, so clearly the writers' embargo was not a one-time thing. He's probably going to get trashed again, so I'll predict, what the heck, he gets exactly 128 votes a third straight time, and that works out to whatever percentage it does. Unless Mac gets a significant increase, say +20 votes, he clearly will be doomed with only one hope -- that after Palmeiro gets demolished on the 2011 ballot, the writers will think they have at last shed enough blood. That's not at all a strong hope, but it's the only one out there -- unless new evidence (of anything) comes to light.
12. Jack Morris (reviewed for the 2008 ballot)
Years on ballot: 9.
Peak return: 42.9% (2008).
2008 return: 42.9%
Career: 18 seasons, 1977-94 -- *Detroit Tigers 1977-90, Minnesota Twins 1991, Toronto Blue Jays 1992-93, Cleveland Indians 1994.
Peak season: 1986 -- 21-8, 15 CG, 6 ShO, 223 K, 3.27, 267 IP, 127 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1979, 1981, 1987, 1991, 1992.
Primary position: RH starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections (three starts), 1991 World Series MVP, led AL in wins twice, strikeouts once, shutouts once. Pitched a no-hitter in 1984. Member of three World Series champion teams, the 1984 Tigers, the 1991 Twins, and the 1992 Blue Jays. A good postseason pitcher, going 7-4, 3.80 in 13 games, 92.1 IP, with one legendary night.
Morris was a good pitcher, but he never delivered a great season. His ERA and WHIP never led the league, rarely in the top five. One game does not make a career Hall-worthy. The greatness is there if the viewer really, really wants to see it; I don't squint that hard.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: 45%. (If he cracks 50%, the tease will gain Tiger teeth.)
13. Dale Murphy (reviewed for the 2008 ballot)
Years on ballot: 10.
Peak return: 23.2% (2000).
2008 return: 13.8%
Career: 18 seasons, 1976-93 -- *Atlanta Braves 1976-90, Philadelphia Phillies 1990-92, Colorado Rockies 1993.
Peak season: 1983 -- 131 runs, 36 HR, 121 RBI, 30 stolen bases, 90 walks, .302/.393/.540, 149 OPS+, 131 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987.
Primary position: center field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 1982 & 1983 NL MVPs, seven All-Star selections (five starts), five NL Gold Gloves for Outfield, four NL Silver Sluggers for Outfield, led NL in slugging twice, runs scored once, home runs twice, RBI twice. Jersey #3 retired by the Braves.
I consider Murf similar to Dawson -- he'd look good on a plaque, but the Hall is not wanting without him. I won't dispute any voter on how he views Murphy, I can go either way (and have), but I genuinely am stunned at how little consideration he gets when the returns are announced. Under 14% (and he slipped below 10% recently)? Ouch.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes. I supported him last year and I'll do so again, but clearly I'm in the minority opinion.
Prediction: climbs up to 15%, but is going nowhere.
14. Jesse Orosco
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 24 seasons, 1979 & 1981-2003 -- *New York Mets 1979 & '81-87, Los Angeles Dodgers 1988 & 2001-02, Cleveland Indians 1989-91, Milwaukee Brewers 1992-94, Baltimore Orioles 1995-99, St. Louis Cardinals 2000, San Diego Padres 2003, New York Yankees 2003, Minnesota Twins 2003.
Peak season: 1983 -- 13-7, 17 saves, 110.0 IP, 84 K, 1.47, 247 ERA+, 1.036 WHIP.
Other outstanding seasons: 1982, 1984, 1986, 1989, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998.
Primary position: LH relief pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections, led AL in games pitched once. Member of the 1986 World Series champion Mets and three other postseason teams. Major league record for most games pitched (1252) and most games pitched in relief (1248 -- geez, why'd he ever start four?).
Orosco was used as a closer early in his career and racked up 100+ innings in 1982 and '83, but after leaving the Mets he shifted to a middle-inning LOOGY -- a lefty one-out guy, tasked with getting out one or two tough LH batters, and that'd be it. The last time Orosco pitched more innings than games was 1990 (though he came close in a few later seasons). Not a lot was asked of him (though what was asked of him, tended to be critical work), and he delivered more good than damaging performances. He picked up saves here and there, career total 144, but that's not a big part of his pitching credentials. Career ERA+ of 125 is very good. He retired at age 46, mostly just tired of the long slog of the season, but he could have kept going (though his last season wasn't very good).
No, teams wanted Jesse to get one, maybe two outs, and even with specialization being a real part of roster construction, I'm not sure today that being excellent in such a tightly defined role merits election to the Hall. The BBWAA electorate has only recently begun getting a worthwhile grasp on what makes a great closer; I'm certain they won't know what to do about a middle reliever (even though Orosco probably represents the best, strongest case for starting to build a Hall-worthiness framework), and right now I don't either. So I'm going to take the conservative, status-quo approach and vote No this time.
Chipmaker's vote: No. But I'll be quite willing to change this next year. This isn't very logical, no, but Orosco may have to pioneer for middle relievers, so bizarre, irrational, non-linear thinking is appropriate.
Prediction: No idea, so let's say 10%. I hope he gets enough to stay on the ballot.
15. Dave Parker (reviewed for the 2008 ballot)
Years on ballot: 12.
Peak return: 24.5% (1998).
2008 return: 15.1%
Career: 19 seasons, 1973-91 -- *Pittsburgh Pirates 1973-83, Cincinnati Reds 1984-87, Oakland Athletics 1988-89, Milwaukee Brewers 1990, California Angels 1991, Toronto Blue Jays 1991.
Peak season: 1978 -- 102 runs, 194 hits, 32 doubles, 12 triples, 30 HR, 117 RBI, 20 stolen bases, .334/.394/.585, 166 OPS+, 134 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1975, 1977, 1979, 1985.
Primary position: right field, finished as a designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 1978 NL MVP, seven All-Star selections (four starts), 1979 All-Star Game MVP, three NL Gold Gloves for Outfield, three Silver Sluggers (two NL for Outfield, one AL for DH), two NL batting championships, led the NL in slugging twice, hits once, RBI once. Member of two World Series champions, the 1979 Pirates and the 1989 Athletics.
Excellent peak but when it ended, it ended quickly, falling off a cliff instead of making a slow decline. Probably blown away by cocaine, though he had one last noteworthy season in him, 1985. I'm not sympathetic, and I do not give credit for things not done. Bad choices can have bad consequences. Parker should have put up more 1979-ish years.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: 15%, just dragging along until the 15 years are up.
16. Dan Plesac
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 18 seasons, 1986-2003 -- *Milwaukee Brewers 1986-92, Chicago Cubs 1993-94, Pittsburgh Pirates 1995-96, Toronto Blue Jays 1997-99 & 2001-02, Arizona Diamondbacks 1999-2000, Philadelphia Phillies 2002-03.
Peak season: 1988 -- 1-2, 30 saves, 52.1 IP, 52 K, 2.31, 165 ERA+, 1.108 WHIP.
Other outstanding seasons: 1986, 1987, 1989, 2000.
Primary position: LH relief pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections. Sixth all-time in games pitched (1064), fourth when he retired.
Very similar to Orosco, really -- Plesac was used as a closer early in his career but soon moved to being a LOOGY, last pitching more innings than games in 1995. Recorded 158 career saves, with 124 coming in his first five seasons. I don't know what to add that I didn't already write about Orosco -- Plesac had an identical, tightly-defined job description, and did it pretty well. Orosco did it better, and I don't mind being hierarchical when two very similar candidates are on the ballot, particularly when they are both first-timers. If either is Hall-worthy, it would have to be Orosco, who was the somewhat better pitcher -- so he'd have to go first.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: Below 5%, and relegated. If the voters don't know what to do about Orosco, they're not going to give Plesac any bigger love.
Part 3 soon.
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