While we await the Veterans Committee ballots results on Monday, let's get to the BBWAA's 2009 ballot candidates, in the popular alphabetical order. There are 23 candidates, so three posts breaks it up well. Thirteen candidates are returning from last year's ballot, so I will have little to say about them, except in the one case where I have changed my vote. Links to career stats and previous reviews included.
1. Harold Baines (reviewed for the 2008 ballot)
Years on ballot: 2.
Peak return: 5.3% (2007).
2008 return: 5.2%
Career: 22 seasons, 1980-2001 -- *Chicago White Sox 1980-89, '96-97, & 2000-01, Texas Rangers 1989-90, Oakland Athletics 1990-92, Baltimore Orioles 1993-95 & '97-2000, Cleveland Indians 1999.
Peak season: 1984 -- 29 HR (career high), 94 RBI, .304/.361/.541, 142 OPS+, 109 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1989, 1991, 1996.
Primary position: right field for seven seasons, then designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections (one start), one Silver Slugger, led the AL in slugging average in 1984. Good postseason hitter (.324/.378/.510 in 31 G, 102 AB). Jersey #3 retired by the White Sox (while he still was an active player). His 1628 RBI currently grant Baines the title of "Most RBI Not In The Hall", a distinction which eventually got Tony Perez in.
Baines was good, but not great. As primarily a DH, he has negligible defensive value to support his candidacy; his hitting is all he's got, and while good, it's not Hall measure. He has twice now just dodged the relegation bullet, and the relatively weak ballot might let him skirt by one more time, but he's never going to adorn a plaque.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: Just escapes the cutoff, again, by +3 votes.
2. Jay Bell
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 18 seasons, 1986-2003 -- Cleveland Indians 1986-88, *Pittsburgh Pirates 1989-96, Kansas City Royals 1997, Arizona Diamondbacks 1998-2002, New York Mets 2003.
Peak season: 1999 -- 38HR, 112 RBI, .289/.374/.557, 131 OPS+, 127 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1993. 1997.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections (one start), one NL Gold Glove at shortstop, one NL Silver Slugger, led NL in sacrifices twice. Member of the 2001 World Series champion Diamondbacks, and four other postseason teams (1990-92 Pirates, 1999 D'backs).
A league-average hitter for the most of his career, Bell was also a very good fielder, which is important particularly at his position. His one superlative season came during the steroids era, and if he was a higher-profile candidate, there'd probably be a lot more noise about this. Good player, but his offense was not Hall class, and defense only gets a player in if there is some legendary component involved. And there's no legendry here.
This marks the first year wherein I've been consulting the Mitchell Report when considering new candidates. Jay Bell is not mentioned in it.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: This will be Bell's first and last ballot. Under 5%, and relegated.
3. Bert Blyleven (reviewed for the 2008 ballot)
Years on ballot: 11.
Peak return: 61.9% (2008).
2008 return: 61.9%
Career: 22 seasons, 1970-90 & 1992 -- *Minnesota Twins 1970-76 & '85-88, Texas Rangers 1976-77, Pittsburgh Pirates 1978-80, Cleveland Indians 1981-85, California Angels 1989-90 & '92.
Peak season: 1973 -- 20-17, 2.52, 258 K, 158 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1974, 1977, 1984, 1989.
Primary position: RH starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Two All-Star selections, led AL in strikeouts once and shutouts three times. Fifth highest career strikeout total, third highest when he retired. 287 career wins (which, alas, is just short of 300). Member of two World Series champion teams, the 1979 Pirates and the 1987 Twins, and contributed well to both -- excellent postseason pitcher, 5-1, 2.47 in 8 games, 6 starts, 47.1 IP, 36 K, 8 BB.
The worthiest pitcher not in the Hall. Delivered a great deal of on-field value. Bert's 60 career shutouts ranks 4th, behind HOFers Spahn (63), Ryan (61), and Seaver (61), in the post-WWII era, so he's in good company.
Chipmaker's vote: YES!
Prediction: Surpasses 70% but falls short of election, thus entering the Promised Land in 2009 and the Hall proper in 2010.
4. David Cone
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 17 seasons, 1986-2001 & 2003 -- Kansas City Royals 1986 & '93-94, New York Mets 1987-92 & 2003, Toronto Blue Jays 1992 & '95, *New York Yankees 1995-2000, Boston Red Sox 2001.
Peak season: 1994 -- 16-5, 2.94, 132 K, 170 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1988 (20-3), 1993, 1996, 1997, 1999.
Primary position: RH starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 1994 AL Cy Young Award, three other Top Five finishes, five All-Star selections, led AL in wins once, NL in winning percentage once, NL in strikeouts twice, and NL in shutouts once. Many other Top Five finishes in good stats in both leagues. Member of five World Series champions -- the 1992 Blue Jays and the 1996 & 1998-2000 Yankees -- and three other postseason teams. Two 20-win seasons. Pitched a perfect game in 1999, only the 16th in major league history.
An excellent pitcher (194-126, .606, 3.46, 120 ERA+, 2668 K, 1.256 WHIP), Cone could produce some brilliant games (crowned, of course, by his perfecto). It took him some years to find himself on the mound, and his best seasons benefited from some devastating offenses (and the 1994-95 strike probably robbed him of some peak stats, though he still took home the Cy Young). But outside of that trophy season, he was never the best -- he'd be among the leaders, but rarely lead, in purely pitcher stats. Cone was a valuable asset and an ideal starter to have in a winning rotation, but not quite Hall class.
Chipmaker's vote: No. I may change this in the future as more 1990s-era starters walk off the diamond and stand before the electorate.
Prediction: 15% -- stays on the ballot, but gives no indication if he'll stay in the low end or build momentum.
5. Andre Dawson (reviewed for the 2008 ballot)
Years on ballot: 7.
Peak return: 65.9% (2008).
2008 return: 65.9%
Career: 21 seasons, 1976-96 -- *Montréal Expos 1976-86, Chicago Cubs 1987-92, Boston Red Sox 1993-94, Florida Marlins 1995-96.
Peak season: 1981 -- 24 HR, 64 RBI, .302/.365/.553 in 103 games (the Expos played only 108 games in the strike-split season, which was the most of any NL East team), 157 OPS+, 83 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1983, 1987, 1988, 1990.
Primary position: center field early, right field later.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 1987 NL MVP, 1977 NL ROY, eight All-Star selections (seven starts, five at CF and two at RF), eight NL Gold Gloves for outfield, four NL Silver Sluggers for outfield, led NL in hits in 1983, home runs and RBI in 1987, and in hit-by-pitch four times (ouch!). Career 438 homers, 1591 RBI, 2774 hits. Jersey #10 retired by the Expos.
Dawson would look good on a plaque, but the Hall is not wanting for his absence. If elected, his .323 career OBP would be the lowest (by about 20 points) by a primary outfielder, which says a lot about how he played his game.
Chipmaker's vote: No. But I could go either way, really, and if he crosses 70% but falls short of election, I'll support him next year.
Prediction: Elected with 76%.
6. Ron Gant
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 16 seasons, 1987-93 & '95-2003 -- *Atlanta Braves 1987-93, Cincinnati Reds 1995, St. Louis Cardinals 1996-98, Philadelphia Phillies 1999-2000, Anaheim Angels 2000, Colorado Rockies 2001, Oakland Athletics 2001 & '03, San Diego Padres 2002.
Peak season: 1990 -- 32 HR, 84 RBI, .303/.357/.539, 139 OPS+, 109 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1991, 1995, 1996, 2002.
Primary position: left field
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections (one start), one NL Silver Slugger for outfield, member of six postseason teams.
A good outfielder but not a great one, Gant was a useful piece to have when he was healthy. He always seemed more talent than production, part of which was due to being on the Braves during the 1990s, when they ascended first to miracle status, then to perennial contenders, and seemed to have the magic touch of turning anyone in the Atlanta uniform into gold -- which was hype. Gant played 150+ games only four times (and 139+ only two other seasons), and missed the entire 1994 season with a leg injury -- health was often an issue with him. Good-hitting outfielders are not too hard to find, and many stay off the DL more than Gant did.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: one ballot and gone, under 5%, relegated.
7. Mark Grace
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 16 seasons, 1988-2003 -- *Chicago Cubs 1988-2000, Arizona Diamondbacks 2001-03.
Peak season: 1995 -- 16 HR, 92 RBI, .326/.395/.516, 141 OPS+, 115 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1989, 1993, 1997, 1998.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (one start), four NL Gold Gloves at first base, led NL in doubles once and sacrifice flies once. Member of the 2001 World Series champion Diamondbacks, and three other postseason teams -- including two Cubs playoff teams, and there weren't many other guys since the 1930s who could claim that. Career .303 batting average. Most hits in the 1990s decade (1754), which I do not at all find significant, but this factoid is out there so readers will get annoyed if I don't include it.
Grace was a very good hitter who drew enough walks to maintain excellent on-base percentages. He was an excellent defensive player, but at the least-demanding defensive position. And he didn't have a lot of power, even playing in Wrigley Field for nearly half his career. First basemen just cannot get away with that. He was an above-average hitter but not a great one.
Grace did have a brilliant 1989 National League Championship Series, batting .647/.682/1.118 in the five games, but this got largely ignored because (a) the Cubs lost and (b) NLCS MVP Will Clark actually hit slightly better.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: popularity will grant Grace 18%, so he'll stay on the ballot, but he's not going anywhere.
8. Rickey Henderson
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 25 seasons, 1979-2003 -- *Oakland Athletics 1979-84, '89-95, & '98, New York Yankees 1985-89, Toronto Blue Jays 1993, San Diego Padres 1996-97 & 2001, Anaheim Angels 1997, New York Mets 1999-2000, Seattle Mariners 2000, Boston Red Sox 2002, Los Angeles Dodgers 2003.
Peak season: 1990 -- 28 HR, 61 RBI, .325/.439/.577, 188 OPS+, 137 RC. Even for Rickey, that's a Yow! season.
Other outstanding seasons: 1981, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1987, 1992, 1993... this gets a little tedious.
Primary position: left field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: ...where to start? 1990 AL MVP, ten All-Star selections (seven starts), one AL Gold Glove for outfield, three AL Silver Sluggers. Led AL in on-base percentage once with many other Top Five finishes, runs five times, hits once, walks four times, stolen bases twelve times. Member of the 3000 Hits Club (3055). Major league record holder for runs scored (2295) and stolen bases (1406, with a huge margin, +468 over Brock), and single season stolen bases (130, 1982). Held the ML record for walks for three seasons (2001-03), taking it from Ruth, until Bonds walked past. Member of two World Series champions, the 1989 Athletics and the 1993 Blue Jays, and six other postseason teams.
Rickey was not only supremely great a player, he was entertaining as wildfire. Someone, probably Bill James, once wrote that if you could split Rickey in two, you'd have two Hall Of Fame players. Rickey is best known by his first name, a rare public distinction. Rickey destroyed, destroyed the Blue Jays in the 1989 ALCS. Rickey spoke of himself in the third person more often than not. Rickey made snatch catches in the outfield. Rickey posted a .401 career OBP, which ranks 13th over his career seasons, and is behind a bunch of HOFers or future HOFers (in order, Bonds, Thomas, Edgar Martinez, Giles, Giambi, Boggs, Manny Ramirez, Bagwell, Thome, Abreu, Chipper Jones, Olerud -- and if some of these guys play to age 44, they'll probably drop a good bit). Rickey not only stole by the bushel, he rarely got caught, 80.8% successful. Rickey proclaimed himself "the greatest" when he stole third to break Brock's career mark (a quote largely taken out of context, but for Rickey, it fit). Rickey was Ryan's 5000th strikeout victim. Rickey picked up his 3000th hit on the last day of the 2001 season, teammate Gwynn's last game, and Rickey asked if he should sit out and not possibly upstage the day (Gwynn told him to play). Rickey did this, Rickey did that... I'm sure I'm leaving out a lot of entertaining bits that probably only Rickey ever could have done.
Rickey Henderson could beat you in many ways, and often did. He was an electric player to watch on the diamond, a giver of good and confounding quote in the papers, and you never knew what he might do next, but it would help his team win.
I look forward to the most perplexing acceptance speech in Hall history next summer. God Bless Rickey Henderson. We need another like him in uniform -- but he was a one-and-only.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes.
Prediction: This will be Rickey's only ballot, as he storms in with 93%.
Part 2 soon.
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