Continuing the review of the writers ballot candidates, #10-18.
The asterisk * by a team the candidate played for indicates which team I think will be on his plaque cap, should he be elected.
10. Eric Karros (playing record)
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 14 seasons, 1991-2004 -- *Los Angeles Dodgers 1991-2002, Chicago Cubs 2003, Oakland Athletics 2004.
Peak season: 1995 -- 32 HR, 105 RBI, .298/.369/.535, 164 hits, 29 doubles, 145 OPS+, 107 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1998, 1999. There's not a lot here, fans.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 1992 NL Rookie Of The Year, one NL Silver Slugger for 1B.
Karros was the first of five consecutive Dodgers to win the NL ROY, followed by Mike Piazza, Raul Mondesi, Hideo Nomo, and Todd Hollandsworth. Winning a ROY is a very unreliable harbinger of future success -- for every Piazza or Jeff Bagwell, there's plenty of Marty Cordova or Pat Listach types. So, while ROY is a positive award to collect, sometimes the winner says more about the quality of the fresh talent in the league than the award says about the recipient.
Karros was a useful player, but he didn't hit enough -- good power, not nearly great, and wasn't much for getting on base, though he was better than, say, Dave Kingman was -- to be a star, certainly not at first base (maybe not even at second base). And he certainly wasn't a Hall-class player. Being named to the ballot is his career endpoint.
He did hit well in the postseason -- .300/.364/.560 in 15 games, 55 plate appearances, with four home runs.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: doesn't get the 5% needed to stay on the ballot. Probably won't get 2%.
11. Ray Lankford (playing record)
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 14 seasons, 1990-2002 & 2004 -- *St. Louis Cardinals 1990-2001 & 2004, San Diego Padres 2001-02.
Peak season: 1998 -- 31 HR, 105 RBI, .293/.391/.540, 37 doubles, 26 stolen bases, 143 OPS+, 123 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 1997.
Primary position: center field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: One All-Star selection (one start), led NL in triples once.
Lankford was a good player, hit well enough for a center fielder, had some power, and could take a walk or swipe a base (though he got caught far too often in his younger days). But there's little in his career that stands up and proclaims greatness. Good-hitting center fielders aren't that hard to find; Lankford was not a rare class of player.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: Just scrapes past the 5% needed to stay on the ballot at least this once.
12. Barry Larkin (playing record)
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 19 seasons, 1986-2004 -- *Cincinnati Reds the whole time.
Peak season: 1996 -- 33 HR, 89 RBI, .298/.410/.567, 117 runs, 32 doubles, 36 stolen bases, 154 OPS+, 124 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1989, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1997, 1998.
Primary position: shorstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Twelve All-Star selections (five starts), 1995 NL MVP, three NL Gold Gloves for shortstop (and probably should have won a few earlier, but Ozzie Smith had a hammerlock on it), nine NL Silver Sluggers for shortstop. Ranks in the Top Five in many Reds franchise hitting records, including second in hits and doubles (behind Pete Rose). Member of the 1990 World Series champion Reds.
It always look a little curious, how Larkin won the 1995 MVP with a good season, then had a much better one, and finished 12th in the 1996 voting, but these things happen.
Larkin was a brilliant shortstop, and filled a unique niche in history. The shortstops of the 1980s were Ozzie Smith, the defensive Wizard, and Cal Ripken, Jr., the slugging Iron Man. Larkin was the next great SS, and just as he was about to take the spotlight -- Ozzie retiring, Rip having taken the consecutive games streak record, the MVP in his pocket -- along came the Trinity of Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez, all young, all exciting, all at least Larkin's equal, and they stole the show.
So Larkin never got the overload of public acclaim he was due, which was too bad. Partly that was his fault, as it were -- he didn't do any one thing with consistent sparkle and flair, like Ozzie with the glove, but he did everything very well. The harshest flaw in Larkin's game was that he didn't have a curveball. This man belongs in the Hall, and I am fully in support of his candidacy.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes!
Prediction: doesn't get in the door this time, but does collect a healthy 45%, and makes it by his fifth ballot. I hope I'm predicting low.
13. Edgar Martinez (playing record)
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 18 seasons, 1987-2004 -- all with the *Seattle Mariners.
Peak season: 1995 -- 29 HR, 113 RBI, .356/.479/.628, 182 hits, 52 doubles, 121 runs, 185 OPS+, 161 RC, while playing the entire 145 game schedule.
Other outstanding seasons: 1990, 1991, 1992, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003.
Primary position: designated hitter; was a third baseman in his early seasons.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (four starts), five AL Silver Sluggers (one for 3B, four for DH), two AL batting championships, led the AL in OBP three times, runs scored once, doubles twice, RBI once, runs created once. MLB's award for the season's outstanding designated hitter is named in Martinez's honor, after he won it five times.
Edgar Martinez could hit. Really HIT. The Mariners didn't call him up until he was 24, and didn't keep him up until he was 27, so his career totals never reached some of the sparkly milestones which he surely would have passed. That doesn't make him a lesser hitter, because he was amazing. Every season, Gar was either the best hitter on the team, or right behind Griffey or Rodriguez -- yes, he more than held his own beside two men widely seen as inevitable future Hall Of Famers. In 1995, when Junior missed half the season, he kept the Mariners going, leading them to the franchise's first-ever postseason berth -- and it was Martinez who provided the signature moment against the Yankees in the ALDS, doubling in Griffey with the winning run in extra innings in Game 5. Yeah, Junior had the mile-wide smile at the bottom of the celebratory dogpile, but it was Martinez who brought him around.
In 1996, he was on a ferocious doubles pace -- 44 in 95 games -- when Piniella played him at third base, he collided with Marzano and got injured and missed a few weeks. And when he came back, he didn't have his power. I'm a hardliner on not giving credit for things not done, but I cannot help think about Martinez that season without the injury -- he projected to over 70 doubles, well past Webb's record, and if he had done it, his career would have one very shiny spangle to help boost his candidacy. And it's gonna be an uphill fight, because of The DH Thing.
I have no quibble with designated hitters, either the position as defined or the men who play it. It's been part of baseball for nearly 40 years; those who still think it somehow is wrong or is Not How The Game Should Be Played really need to get past their petty indignation. I take particular issue with anyone claiming that DHs play only half the game and therefore are unworthy of the Hall -- how do they approach AL starting pitchers, or any relief pitcher? Those are no different, from that point of view. I call hogwash. Martinez was a brilliant hitter, the Mariners decided that was his best destiny -- hey, better that than to let him play defense, especially if (a) there were better options and/or (b) he'd have been a liability with the glove. No, to me, he did the job that was asked of him, and he did so with greatness and beauty. It was a joy and a wonder to watch him bat.
Martinez could hit, he did hit a ton, and no one has ever done a better job of being a DH.
If the BBWAA is ever going to come to grips with the reality that is the designated hitter role, there is no better pioneer for opening the doors to the Hall as a DH than Edgar Martinez.
Chipmaker's vote: YES!
Prediction: 30%, as too many writers, including many who have never witnessed an AL game without the DH, hold to their unofficial pre-20th century precepts. I so hope I'm way wrong on this. The story of the 1990s Seattle Mariners' ascension to relevance is incomplete without Martinez in a starring role, and he's earned his plaque.
14. Don Mattingly (playing record| 2009 ballot review)
Years on ballot: 9.
Peak return: 28.2% (2001).
2009 return: 11.9%
Career: 14 seasons, 1982-95 -- all with the *New York Yankees.
Peak season: 1986 -- 238 hits, 117 runs, 31 Hr, 113 RBI, 53 doubles, .352/.394/.573, 161 OPS+, 150 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1984, 1985, 1987.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections (one start), 1985 AL MVP, nine AL Gold Gloves at 1B, three AL Silver Sluggers at 1B, 1984 AL batting champion, 1986 AL slugging champion, led AL in hits twice, doubles three times, RBI once. Set the major league single season record for grand slams with six in 1987 (and never hit another in his entire career). Tied the ML record for consecutive games with a home run, with eight. Tied the ML record for most putouts in a game, with 22. Jersey #23 retired by the Yankees.
The thematic successor to Jim Rice, but without the climbing vote returns -- the greatness is there if one really wants to see it. Donnie Baseball had four great seasons, two other very good ones, and then he was pedestrian for the rest of his career.
Many Mattingly supporters will cite HOFer Kirby Puckett as a reason to promote Donnie. I understand why -- their career stats are similar. There are three significant reasons why the comparison is not valid, or at least isn't going to get Mattingly in:
1. Puckett was a center fielder, whereas Mattingly was a first baseman. CFs who could hit like Puck are rare across baseball history; 1B who could hit as well as, or better than, Mattingly (on a career basis, where this comparison always plays) are not so rare. Position does matter, a lot.
2. Puckett's value was evenly spread out over his entire career, whereas most of Mattingly's value was crammed into four seasons. I look to seasonal value before I look to career value, because great seasons help a player's team toward the postseason, which is the annual goal of the season. Puckett did more in more years than Mattingly did.
3. Puckett wasn't that good of a choice for the Hall anyway.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: Just another mid-teens return, futzing about until his 15 years run out.
15. Fred McGriff (playing record)
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 19 seasons, 1986-2004 -- Toronto Blue Jays 1986-90, San Diego Padres 1991-93, *Atlanta Braves 1993-97, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 1998-2001 & 2004, Chicago Cubs 2001-02, Los Angeles Dodgers 2003.
Peak season: 1992 -- 35 HR, 104 RBI, 30 doubles, 96 walks, .286/.394/.556, 166 OPS+, 116 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1999, 2001.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Five All-Star selections (three starts), three Silver Sluggers (one AL, two NL) for 1B, led both leagues in HR once each. 1994 All-Star MVP. Carries the curious distinction of having the only baseball "Bermanism" -- silly, punnish nicknames bestowed by ESPN's Chris Berman that typically have little to do with the player -- that has entered the widespread lexicon, "Crime Dog". Member of the 1995 World Series champion Braves.
Fred McGriff finished his career with 493 home runs, agonizingly close to 500, a milestone which many people consider to be a golden ticket to the Hall if reached. This is not the case, but it's the sort of simplistic causality that plays well to the masses, and it's easy to remember.
I have little doubt that, had the players not struck in 1994-95, McGriff would have hit those seven more homers, and his candidacy would be a lot more clear-cut (to the good) than it otherwise is today. However, I don't feel the least bit bad or sad for McGriff, because he was one of the players and supported the strike, and given how that mess eventually played out, missing out on #500 is a small sacrifice. His career would look better with 500 homers, but not really be any better. I don't care that he didn't reach 500, and I think many of the BBWAA voters will similarly look past such petty surface distinctions.
Crime Dog was a damn good hitter, the sort of slugger who personifies the stereotypical, even archetypal, first baseman. Good glove, big bat, plays a lot of games, does a lot of damage at the plate, doesn't muck up on defense very often, reliable. What's not to like? McGriff did his job, did it very well for a long time, often rising to greatness, and was a key part of the storied mid-1990s Braves. And he was an excellent postseason player, too -- .303/.385/.532 in 50 games, 218 plate appearances, with 10 HR.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes!
Prediction: Brings home 40% this first time, moves up quickly, gets elected before his seventh ballot. He's Hall-worthy, but it'll take the writers a while before enough recognize this.
16. Mark McGwire (playing record| 2009 ballot review)
Years on ballot: 3.
Peak return: 23.6% (2008).
2009 return: 21.9%
Career: 16 seasons, 1986-2001 -- *Oakland Athletics 1986-97, St. Louis Cardinals 1997-2001.
Peak season: 1998 -- 70 HR, 147 RBI, 130 runs, 162 walks, .299/.470/.752, 216 OPS+, 193 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, and 2000 even though he played only 89 games.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 12 All-Star selections (six starts), 1987 AL ROY, one AL Gold Glove at 1B, three Silver Sluggers (one AL, two NL) at 1B, led his league in OBP twice, SLG four times, home runs four times, RBI once, walks twice. Rookie record 49 HR. Record 70 HR in 1998, since surpassed once. Member of the 1989 World Series champion Athletics. Member of the 500 Home Runs Club (583 career).
After three ballots, it is obvious that the majority of the voters are holding their embargo against McGwire. Nothing before now has changed -- or has it? A few weeks ago, the Cardinals had to acknowledge -- the news leaked -- that McGwire has been hired to be the batting coach in 2010.
This was a surprise, as Mac apparently was content with his isolated, golfing life in southern California. Cards manager Tony LaRussa has long been one of his supporters, and must have decided that it was time to begin The Rehabilitation Of Mark McGwire. The media will of course clamor to have him speak at last -- in one-sided hopes of getting some sort of confession of whatever it is they think he did -- and, back in the public eye, he'll have to say something, however vague or evasive, eventually. He could continue playing his shell game, or he could press the detonator on the players' omerta and move on. No idea what will happen next -- but if he approaches it right, he could win lots of brownie points with the writers, and maybe even some Hall votes.
My vote doesn't count, but he's had it before and still has it this time.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes!
Prediction: no meaningful change this time, though at least one voter has said he's turned positive this year. Another low-20s percentage return. It'll be more interesting next year after he's been a coach for a season, see if the tide is turning.
17. Jack Morris (playing record | 2009 ballot review)
Years on ballot: 10.
Peak return: 44.0% (2009).
2009 return: 44.0%
Career: 18 seasons, 1977-94 -- *Detroit Tigers 1977-90, Minnesota Twins 1991, Toronto Blue Jays 1992-93, Cleveland Indians 1994.
Peak season: 1986 -- 21-8, 15 CG, 6 ShO, 223 K, 3.27, 267 IP, 127 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1979, 1981, 1987, 1991, 1992.
Primary position: right-handed starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Five All-Star selections (three starts), 1991 World Series MVP, led AL in wins twice, strikeouts once, shutouts once. Pitched a no-hitter in 1984. Member of three World Series champion teams, the 1984 Tigers, the 1991 Twins, and the 1992 Blue Jays. A good postseason pitcher, going 7-4, 3.80 in 13 games, 92.1 IP, with one legendary night.
The greatness is there for those who are convinced they see it. I see a big helping of good and very good performances, but no, I don't see the greatness.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: cracks 50% at last, but his runway is getting very short (four more ballots after this year), so it could get tight at the end.
18. Dale Murphy (playing record | 2009 ballot review)
Years on ballot: 11.
Peak return: 23.2% (2000).
2009 return: 11.5%
Career: 18 seasons, 1976-93 -- *Atlanta Braves 1976-90, Philadelphia Phillies 1990-92, Colorado Rockies 1993.
Peak season: 1983 -- 36 HR, 121 RBI, 131 runs, 30 stolen bases, 90 walks, .302/.393/.540, 149 OPS+, 131 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987.
Primary position: center field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 1982 & 1983 NL MVPs, seven All-Star selections (five starts), five NL Gold Gloves for Outfield, four NL Silver Sluggers for Outfield, led NL in slugging twice, runs scored once, home runs twice, RBI twice. Jersey #3 retired by the Braves.
Great center fielders are a rare breed. Murf was a genuinely nice guy. Outside of his peak, he wasn't much to talk about, but his peak was excellent. I don't know why he doesn't get more ballot love. By now, however, it clearly isn't going to change, so I'm still behind his candidacy, but this makes me in a definite minority.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes.
Prediction: Another pokey 10-15% range return. sigh.
Part 3 soon.
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