19. Dave Parker (playing record | 2009 ballot review)
Years on ballot: 13.
Peak return: 24.5% (1998).
2009 return: 15.0%
Career: 19 seasons, 1973-91 -- *Pittsburgh Pirates 1973-83, Cincinnati Reds 1984-87, Oakland Athletics 1988-89, Milwaukee Brewers 1990, California Angels 1991, Toronto Blue Jays 1991.
Peak season: 1978 -- 30 HR, 117 RBI, 102 runs, 194 hits, 32 doubles, 12 triples, 20 stolen bases, .334/.394/.585, 166 OPS+, 134 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1975, 1977, 1979, 1985.
Primary position: right field, finished as a designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (four starts), 1978 NL MVP, 1979 All-Star MVP, three NL Gold Gloves for OF, three Silver Sluggers (two NL for OF, one AL for DH), two NL batting championships, led the NL in slugging twice, hits once, RBI once. Member of two World Series champions, the 1979 Pirates and the 1989 Athletics.
Great peak, but pedestrian outside of it. This is your adjusted OPS on drugs, youngsters. Playing clean does have its merits.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: Another 15-20% return. Parker has his proponents, but this candidacy is just whiling away until the 15 years expire, which will be soon.
20. Tim Raines (playing record | 2009 ballot review)
Years on ballot: 2.
Peak return: 24.3% (2008).
2009 return: 22.6%
Career: 23 seasons, 1979-99 & 2001-02 -- *Montréal Expos 1979-90 & 2001, Chicago White Sox 1991-95, New York Yankees 1996-98, Oakland Athletics 1999, Baltimore Orioles 2001, Florida Marlins 2002.
Peak season: 1987 -- 123 runs, 175 hits, 34 doubles, 18 HR, 68 RBI, 50 stolen bases (against five caught steals!), 90 walks, .330/.429/.526, 149 OPS+, 132 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1984, 1985, 1986, 1989, 1993.
Primary position: left field. Leadoff hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (two starts), 1987 All-Star MVP, one NL Silver Slugger for Outfield, one NL batting championship, led NL in on-base percentage once, runs twice, stolen bases four times. Career 84.7% stolen base success rate is the highest for anyone with 300+ SB; 808 career SB ranks fifth all-time. Member of the 1996 and 1998 World Series champion Yankees. Jersey #30 retired by the Expos.
Okay, voters, Rickey is in. Now, please, is it Rock's turn? The lowest on-base percentage he ever posted in a 100+ games played season was .350. Devastating player, eminently plaque-worthy.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes!
Prediction: It's a flying leap of a hope, but I'd like to see Raines take a big jump, over 40%. If enough voters were quietly playing a "Rickey First" card, well, that's done, so let's get going.
21. Shane Reynolds (playing record)
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 13 seasons, 1992-2004 -- *Houston Astros 1992-2002, Atlanta Braves 2003, Arizona Diamondbacks 2004.
Peak season: 1998 -- 19-8, 3.51, 3 complete games, 1 ShO, 233.1 IP, 209 K, 117 ERA+, 1.329 WHIP.
Other outstanding seasons: 1994, 1999. Not a lot to see here.
Primary position: right-handed starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: One All-Star selection. Led NL in games started twice.
Reynolds was a good pitcher, a little above league average at preventing baserunners and runs, but there is nothing exceptional in his career to even hint at Hall worthiness.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: If he gets one vote, it'll be a token sop from a Houston-area voter, much like Jim DeShaies got in 2001.
22. David Segui (playing record)
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 15 seasons, 1990-2004 -- *Baltimore Orioles 1990-93 & 2001-04, New York Mets 1994-95, Montreal Expos 1995-97, Seattle Mariners 1998-99, Toronto Blue Jays 1999, Texas Rangers 2000, Cleveland Indians 2000.
Peak season: 2000 -- 19 HR, 103 RBI, .334/.388/.510, 93 runs, 193 hits, 42 doubles, 124 OPS+, 110 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1997, 1998, his partial 2001 season.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Second generation ballplayer; papa Diego Segui pitched for 15 seasons.
There's not much to say about Segui -- not much by way of Hall testimony, at least. The most noteworthy item about his career is that he has his own section in the Mitchell Report. And that is not the sort of thing which helps earn one the bronze plaque. Segui has publicly acknowledged using human growth hormone by prescription, and the Mitchell Report incriminates him as a steroids user.
Looking at his career stats, one must wonder two things -- how these PEDs were helping him, and why he's even on the ballot. Segui posted good OBPs and had some decent power, but he wasn't that much above league average, and as a first baseman, there had to be more expected of him that he didn't deliver. He also wasn't in the lineup enough -- only three seasons of 140 or more games played (peaking at 150), only eight of his 15 seasons with over 100 games. As a switch hitter, he wasn't subject to obvious platooning cutting into his playing time.
If one is conspiratorially minded, one might think Segui is on the ballot to show other, perhaps unidentified PED users what might happen to them if they get on the Hall ballot someday, because between an uninspiring career and admitted and alleged PED usage, I'll be impressed if Segui gets one vote. If the Hall wants to make an example of someone not named McGwire, here he is.
Chipmaker's vote: No -- and this has nothing to do with Segui's PED usage. Simply not a Hall-class career.
Prediction: Segui's candidacy gets clobbered with a resounding zero votes.
23. Lee Smith (playing record | 2009 ballot review)
Years on ballot: 7.
Peak return: 45.0% (2006).
2009 return: 44.5%
Career: 18 seasons, 1980-97 -- *Chicago Cubs 1980-87, Boston Red Sox 1988-90, St. Louis Cardinals 1990-93, New York Yankees 1993, Baltimore Orioles 1994, California Angels 1995-96, Cincinnati Reds 1996, Montréal Expos 1997.
Peak season: 1991 -- 6-3, 47 saves, 2.34, 67 K, 157 ERA+, 1.137 WHIP.
Other outstanding seasons: 1982, 1983, 1987, 1988, 1990, 1994.
Primary position: right-handed relief pitcher, primarily as a closer.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections, three Rolaids Relief Awards (two NL, one AL), led NL in saves three times and AL once. Held the career record for saves from 1993, when he passed Reardon, to 2006, when Hoffman caught up. Currently third in career saves.
I've been looking at Smith more closely than any other returning candidate, comparing him to HOF RPs Eckersley, Sutter, Gossage, Fingers -- and I've changed my mind. I've fence-sat before, conservatively deciding to be opposed to Smith for the Hall, but he stands up very well compared to the Hall relievers, so I've jumped over that fence. Elect Lee Arthur!
Chipmaker's vote: Yes!
Prediction: Gets 50%, and should have enough ballots remaining to make it.
24. Alan Trammell (playing record | 2009 ballot review)
Years on ballot: 8.
Peak return: 18.2% (2008).
2009 return: 17.4%
Career: 20 seasons, 1977-96 -- *Detroit Tigers all the way.
Peak season: 1987 -- 109 runs, 205 hits, 34 doubles, 28 HR, 105 RBI, 21 stolen bases (against 2 caught steals), .343/.402/.551, 155 OPS+, 137 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1983, 1984, 1988, 1990, 1993.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Six All-Star selections, 1984 World Series MVP, four AL Gold Gloves for Shortstop, three AL Silver Sluggers for Shortstop. Member of the 1984 World Series champion Tigers.
Baseball bonus points: Tram was manager of the Tigers for three seasons, 2003-05. His teams were not impressive, at least not in good ways. The 2003 team was a complete disaster, so bad that not all responsibility can be laid upon Trammell's head. But this doesn't help his Hall candidacy at all.
Trammell's career annoys me. Half of his seasons were really good, the other half were below average, and they're all mixed together, no significant clustering. I cannot support a half-great player, not this time. I'll still think about him, but the easy choice here is "no".
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: Another hum-drum below-20 percent.
25. Robin Ventura (playing record)
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 16 seasons, 1989-2004 -- *Chicago White Sox 1989-98, New York Mets 1999-2001, New York Yankees 2002-03, Los Angeles Dodgers 2003-04.
Peak season: 1999 -- 32 HR, 120 RBI, .301/.379/.529, 88 runs, 177 hits, 38 doubles, 74 walks, 129 OPS+, 118 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1991, 1992, 1995, 1996.
Primary position: third base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Two All-Star selections. Six Gold Gloves (five AL, one NL) at 3B. Won the 1988 Golden Spikes Award as the outstanding amateur player in the nation.
Ventura was a very good player but at his best was never great -- not as a professional anyway. His collegiate career was the stuff of legend, including a 58-game hitting streak, but the Hall looks to the majors, the highest level of competition, for its honorees.
Three things do stand out about Ventura's career, worth reviewing.
1. He was very proficient at hitting grand slams, with a career total of eighteen, tied for fourth all-time. This included tying the major league record by hitting two in one game (White Sox 14 - @Rangers 5, 04-September-1995) and later hitting two in a doubleheader, one in each game (20-May-1999).
2. His most famous grand slam, however, is one he hit but never completed. In Game 5 of the 1999 NLCS, with his Mets trailing in the series 3-1 -- on the cusp of elimination -- and trailing the game, 3-2, in the bottom of the 15th, Ventura came up with the bases loaded and clobbered it, for an apparent game-winning slam. However, the Mets mobbed him in celebration after he rounded first base, and Ventura abandoned his attempt to circle the bases. Two Mets scored to win the game, 4-3, but Ventura was credited with a single. Too bad, as it would have been the first walk-off grand slam in major league postseason history.
3. In 1993, Ventura was plunked in the ribs by Nolan Ryan, who was in the home stretch of his career. Ventura, a 25-year-old stud, charged the mound. Ryan, a venerable 46, put the finishing touch on his take-no-shit reputation by snaring Ventura in a headlock and dogie-punching him in the head six times. It was over quickly, tempers cooled, Ventura was ejected and the game played on. It was an unusual event even for baseball, and the image of the ancient Ranger taking the young kid to school, literally the school of hard knocks, was indelible. What the heck was Ventura thinking?
Good player. Not Hall measure.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: Grabs 10%, stays on the ballot for a few years. I'm probably aiming high.
26. Todd Zeile (playing record)
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 16 seasons, 1989-2004 -- *St. Louis Cardinals 1989-95, Chicago Cubs 1995, Philadelphia Phillies 1996, Baltimore Orioles 1996, Los Angeles Dodgers 1997-98, Florida Marlins 1998, Texas Rangers 1998-99, New York Mets 2000-01 & 2004, Colorado Rockies 2002, New York Yankees 2003, Montreal Expos 2003.
Peak season: 1997 -- 31 HR, 90 RBI, .268/.365/.459, 89 runs, 154 hits, 85 walks, 121 OPS+, 96 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1991, 1999, 2000 -- but don't look for too much in 'em.
Primary position: third base. Started out as a catcher. Played some first base along the way.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Played for eleven different major league franchises, one short of the record. Most career home runs by any player whose family name starts with "Z", surpassing Gus Zernial (237) in 2003.
Wow. Zeile was around for a long time, and didn't win anything -- no major awards, no minor awards, no leading the league in anything , not even an All-Star selection. This surprised me. He was a pretty good player, and such guys usually get one trip to the July celebration along the way. Zeile did not.
He was a good hitter in the postseason -- .292/.362/.460 in 29 games, 127 plate appearances. And he was durable, playing in 140+ games ten times, plus all of the 1994 season. But he never rose to greatness. The Hall is short on third basemen, but Zeile isn't going to be the next one added to the rolls.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: The voters didn't like 3B Matt Williams last year, and he had more homers. They're not going to give Zeile any more ballot love. Less than 3%, and relegated.
Summary. I support nine players for Hall election -- Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, Martinez, McGriff, McGwire, Murphy, Raines, and Smith.
If I could vote for only one, it would go to Blyleven.
I expect only Dawson will be elected this time. If any ballot rookie is elected, it will be Alomar.
Ballot results will be announced Wednesday, January 6, 2010.
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