Continuing with the 2011 ballot candidates....
9. Juan Gonzalez (career stats)
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 17 seasons, 1989-2005 -- *Texas Rangers 1989-99 & 2002-03, Detroit Tigers 2000, Cleveland Indians 2001 & 2005, Kansas City Royals 2004.
Peak season: 1993 -- 166 hits, 33 doubles, 46 HR, 118 RBI, 105 runs scored, .310 / .368 / .632, 169 OPS+, 6.7 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2001.
Career WAR: 33.5.
Primary position: right fielder. Lots of fans remember him as a DH, and he certainly was no asset with the glove, but he didn't DH that much -- only 370 games out of nearly 1700 in his career.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (two starts), two AL MVP Awards (1996 and 1998), six AL Silver Sluggers. Led league in home runs twice, doubles once, RBI once. Member of the Rangers' first three postseason teams ever (1996, '98, '99), and while each ended in a Division Series defeat to the Yankees, Gonzalez saved team face by being pretty much the only Texas batter who did anything at all in the ten total games.
Mitchell Report: A bag belonging to one of Gonzalez's trainers was seized at Canadian customs (his team was heading to Toronto) with steroids inside.
Juan Gone was fun to watch, because he could hit. He couldn't -- hell, he wouldn't -- take a walk and his defense was adequate at best, but he sure could hit. And slug. From 1993 through 2001, his posted a season batting average below .289 only once -- that was 1994, which was also the only time in that span he slugged below .500. When he was in the lineup, he made big things happen.
Unfortunately he wasn't always in the lineup, with only two seasons of 150+ games played. He always had nagging injuries, little things (or sometimes big things) like pulled muscles, probably related to his obsessive weight training regimen. The Rangers traded him to Detroit after the '99 season, and while I was sorry to see him go, these things happen. He had an okay season with the Tigers, turned down a massive contract offer, and went to Cleveland where he showed a lot of his younger self -- power, average, refusal to stand there waiting for ball four. It seemed like he still had something left -- but then he came back to the Rangers and fell to pieces, two seasons totaling 152 games. Good enough when he played, but he didn't play enough, much too injured. A train wreck in KC and a bad joke ending -- one at-bat for the 2005 Indians -- and he was done. He poked about for another year in independent ball, but it was over -- and Gonzalez is only a month older than Griffey. It was a long, slow, but inexorable slide down the mountain and into the ocean, just dismal. If he'd stayed healthy, he could have hit 600 home runs. We got to see only 434 of those.
Sigh. I so enjoyed watching Gonzalez hit. If he had had anything more to his career -- plate patience, a decent glove and arm, a longer and more graceful (wouldn't have taken much) tail to his career, I'd feel that much better about his candidacy. Regards the possible steroid usage -- yeah, probably so, but if he was using after 2001 they were doing more harm than good, because he couldn't stay healthy at all. What is in the Mitchell Report doesn't disqualify Gonzalez in my view; his career, with the significant shortcomings and the messy ending, does that. Home runs and power are great assets, but not enough by themselves, not for the honor of the Hall.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: stays on the ballot, but not by much -- ends up with Palmeiro as his percentage neighbor, around 12%.
10. Marquis Grissom (career stats)
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 17 seasons, 1989-2005 -- *Montreal Expos 1989-94, Atlanta Braves 1995-96, Cleveland Indians 1997, Milwaukee Brewers 1998-2000, Los Angeles Dodgers 2001-02, San Francisco Giants 2003-05.
Peak season: 1992 -- 180 hits, 39 doubles, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 78 stolen bases, 99 runs scored, .276 / .322 / .418, 110 OPS+, 5.6 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1993, 1994, 1996, 2002.
Career WAR: 25.6.
Primary position: center fielder.
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections (one start), 1997 ALCS MVP, four NL Gold Gloves. Led league in stolen bases twice, center field putouts once, center field assists twice. Had zero errors in 2001, 123 games, 233 chances. Member of the 1995 World Series champion and 1996 NL champion Braves and the 1997 AL champion Indians, and not many guys get to play in the World Series three years in a row with two different teams, so that must have been nice.
Grissom was a very good player -- not with his bat, which was league average most of the time, but with his glove he was excellent. He was durable, too -- from 1991 through 2000, he never played fewer than 139 games (except the short 1994 season, when he played in 110 of Montreal's 114). His range factor was typically above, sometimes well above, the league average. Good arm. And he could hit some -- Grissom was mostly a singles hitter, but he could rattle some doubles and poke a few homers every year, though he slugged over .450 only four times.
Grissom was an amazing base stealer in his youth, as well, twice leading the NL with 76 and 78 thefts, nabbing 53 another time. His speed faded after 1995, but for a while he was brilliant.
And, though no postseason glory attaches, he was a member of the amazing 1994 Expos, a team that was likely destined for a World Series, possibly a championship -- and speculating on what might have happened, had that been the case, is a long story for another time. (Worth noting, two other teammates, Walker and Rueter, are on this ballot.) Grissom was a key part of that squad, and that should be remembered and acknowledged.
Very good player, but that's the most we can say of him.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: I hope he stays on the ballot, but I fear he won't -- 3% and relegated.
11. Lenny Harris (career stats)
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 18 seasons, 1988-2005 -- Cincinnati Reds 1988-89 & '94-98, *Los Angeles Dodgers 1989-93, New York Mets 1998 & 2000-01, Colorado Rockies 1999, Arizona Diamondbacks 1999, Milwaukee Brewers 2002, Chicago Cubs 2003, Florida Marlins 2003-05.
Peak season: 1990 -- 131 hits, 16 doubles, 4 triples, 2 HR, 29 RBI, 61 runs scored, .304/.348/.374, 15 stolen bases, 101 OPS+, 2.8 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1991, 2000 -- and we're really stretching here.
Career WAR: -0.9 (1.8 batting, -2.7 defense).
Primary position: When he took the field, it was at third base, or maybe second base, right field, or left field. But Harris' primary role was as a pinch-hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Holds the major league record for most pinch-hits in a career, with 212. Also holds associated PH records -- most PH AB in a career, most games PH in during a career, most games PH in a season. You get the idea.
Harris was a pinch-hitter. Of his 1903 career major league games, he started 770, just over 40%. All the others saw him enter as a substitute, and usually as a pinch-hitter. That was his job. He was pretty good at it, certainly not great, but he wasn't very good at much of anything else -- he didn't keep a starting job -- so this is what there is to consider.
Pinch-hitting is not like designated hitting. The DH is a starting position, and the best ones can keep on doing it, and doing it well, for a long time. Pinch hitting regularly is for those who can't cut it doing anything else. Or maybe they're buds with the manager, or something. The pinch hitter takes over for a guy who needs a rest, or has a short-term injury, or needs to get up there when the pitcher's slot is due at the plate.
I'm okay with DHs getting in the Hall, and relief pitchers. Those are specialty roles, but established ones. Pinch hitting, however, is for guys who can cause a bit of trouble for the opponents but cannot sustain it. I can't really see it happening, but perhaps some day a great pinch hitter will earn the plaque. Harris, however, will not be that man.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: two votes, relegated.
12. Bobby Higginson (career stats)
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 11 seasons, 1995-2005 -- all with the *Detroit Tigers.
Peak season: 2000 -- 179 hits, 44 doubles, 30 HR, 102 RBI, 104 runs scored, .300 / .377 / .538, 134 OPS+, 4.6 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1996, 1997, 2001.
Career WAR: 21.4.
Primary position: left fielder and right fielder.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Played his entire career with only one team, which is held in some esteem by fans and writers. Led the league in putouts by a left fielder twice, and in assists by a left fielder four times and by a right fielder twice, so that's uncommon. Not a lot to mine here.
Higginson was a good player -- good hitter, pretty good fielder. Was the primary RF for the 2003 Tigers, one of the worst train-wreck teams of all time, so he must have a pretty high tolerance for pain and suffering. Unfortunately "good" is all we can say about him, there's nothing great here. Alas, he tailed off quickly after age 30, done after a cameo appearance (10 games) in 2005, and so was not around when the Kitties finally grabbed an October golden ticket again in 2006. A nice player to remember, but the Hall ballot is his last stop.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: one vote, because every candidate should get at least one vote. (Of course, many do not.)
13. Charles Johnson (career stats)
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 12 seasons, 1994-2005 -- *Florida Marlins 1994-98 & 2001-02, Los Angeles Dodgers 1998, Baltimore Orioles 1999-2000, Chicago White Sox 2000, Colorado Rockies 2003-04, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 2005.
Peak season: 1997 -- 104 hits, 26 doubles, 19 HR, 63 RBI, .250/.347/.454, 43 runs, 113 OPS+, 4.4 WAR (2.5 batting, 1.9 defense).
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1999, 2000.
Career WAR: 22.0 (about 1/3 of that, 7.1, for defense).
Primary position: catcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections, four NL Gold Gloves for catcher (consecutive). Led league in caught steals once, fielding percentage for a catcher twice. Member of the 1997 World Series champion Marlins.
Not a very long career, but a pretty good one as catchers go. It's a tough position that exacts a harsh physical toll -- several nagging injuries and the general punishment that catchers take limited his playing time, only twice exceeding 130 games in a season (and peaking at 135). Johnson could hit a bit and take a walk, all to the good, but his ticket to the big leagues was his glove and defensive prowess. And here, he shone, while the vigor of youth allowed him. He wore down before age 30 and quickly wore out after, sputtering to an end at 33. But he never gave up being a catcher, strapping on the tools of ignorance to the last. Baseball is a tough game. Johnson gave it all he had and all he could. A player worth recalling -- but not a Hall of Famer.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: won't stay on the ballot, 2% and gone. Ah well.
14. Barry Larkin (career stats | reviewed on 2010 ballot)
Year on ballot: 2nd (13 remaining).
Peak return: 51.6% (2010).
2010 return: 51.6%.
Career: 19 seasons, 1986-2004 -- *Cincinnati Reds the whole time.
Peak season: 1996 -- 33 HR, 89 RBI, .298/.410/.567, 117 runs, 32 doubles, 36 stolen bases, 154 OPS+, 7.4 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999.
Career WAR: 68.9.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Twelve All-Star selections (five starts), 1995 NL MVP, three NL Gold Gloves for shortstop, nine NL Silver Sluggers for shortstop. Ranks in the Top Five in many Reds franchise hitting records, including second in hits and doubles (behind Pete Rose). Member of the 1990 World Series champion Reds.
Larkin fell smack between the peaks of two different shortstop groups -- Ripken, Smith, and Trammell before him, and the troika of Garciaparra, Jeter, and Rodriguez after. So he never had a chance to grab the spotlight for but the briefest of spans; he's easy to overlook. But he should not be overlooked, because Larkin was a great shortstop. The media knows this -- they did give him a well-earned MVP and over 50% of the Hall vote last year. He needs to get to 75% or better. I think it will happen, but the sooner, the better, because he doesn't deserve to have to wait. C'mon, he's Hall worthy, so no need to futz around here.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes! ...and will remain Yes until he gets in.
Prediction: takes a jump to 60%, but induction will take a few more years, drat the luck.
15. Al Leiter (career stats)
Writers ballot rookie.
Career: 19 seasons, 1987-2005 -- New York Yankees 1987-89 & 2005, Toronto Blue Jays 1989-95, Florida Marlins 1996-97 & 2005, *New York Mets 1998-2004.
Peak season: 1998 -- 17-6, 2.47, 28 starts, 4 CG, 193.0 innings, 174 K, 170 ERA+, 1.150 WHIP, 6.5 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1996, 2000.
Career WAR: 38.8 as a pitcher (-2.7 as a batter).
Primary position: starting pitcher (left handed).
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections. Led league in H/9IP once. Member of two World Series champions, the 1993 Blue Jays and 1997 Marlins, as well as the 2000 NL champion Mets.
Leiter could eat up innings, but he was never remotely an ace pitcher. Only won 15 games four times, peaking at 17 (and yes, while I give pitcher wins very little consideration in evaluating the player's quality, they remain stubbornly popular, and not having sparkly win numbers can doom a candidate, so I mention them in recognition of this; low win totals cannot disguise the pitcher's lackings in the rest of his game). Walked too many guys, didn't strike out enough. Leiter was usually an above-average pitcher and often a useful part of whichever staff he was on; but if he hadn't been on several World Series teams and spent time in New York in eleven different seasons, he probably wouldn't be on the ballot, where he's only acting as filler. "Just being named on the ballot is an honor" has been heard before, and will be again, and here it fits.
Chipmaker's vote: No.
Prediction: one and out, four votes.
16. Edgar Martinez (career stats | reviewed on 2010 ballot)
Year on ballot: 2nd (13 remaining).
Peak return: 36.2% (2010).
2010 return: 36.2%.
Career: 18 seasons, 1987-2004 -- all with the *Seattle Mariners.
Peak season: 1995 -- 29 HR, 113 RBI, .356/.479/.628, 182 hits, 52 doubles, 121 runs, 185 OPS+, 7.7 WAR, while playing the entire 145 game schedule.
Other outstanding seasons: 1990, 1991, 1992, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003.
Career WAR: 67.2.
Primary position: designated hitter; was a third baseman in his early seasons.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (four starts), five AL Silver Sluggers (one for 3B, four for DH), two AL batting championships, led the league in OBP three times, runs scored once, doubles twice, RBI once. MLB's award for the season's outstanding designated hitter is named in Martinez's honor, after he won it five times.
Goodness gracious, Edgar Martinez could hit. He hit so well that, in short order, that's all that the Mariners asked him to do. And he did it, brilliantly, and for a very long time.
There are those who still decry the designated hitter, now approaching 40 years established and not going away. I don't see the point (and am continually curious how they evaluate pitchers if they cling to their "players should play offense AND defense" credo, but they always duck that line of inquiry). The DH role is here, and players who DH should be evaluated on their job description. Martinez remains one of the very best, probably the very best, to perform as a designated hitter, and he did so with amazing and worthy endurance. Seriously, find a better DH, ever. Maybe Frank Thomas, but if it takes Frank Thomas to trump Martinez as a DH, Martinez is in truly elite company.
But let's indulge the "whole player"ists and take a look at Martinez' defense. Y'know what? He wasn't that bad. Going by defensive wins above replacement (dWAR), he had a couple of pretty good seasons, and no really bad ones, only once dipping below -0.4 (to -0.6). He usually had to take up his glove a few games every season, interleague play saw to that, and he didn't do any meaningful harm. Over his career, he was a defensive positive, +0.3 dWAR. Sure, had he played defense more he might have been a liability, but as a DH, the Mariners didn't let that happen -- the team leveraged him to avoid that. Smart move. Take that, naysayers. (Besides, when did a monster hitter ever have to worry about his defensive contributions when it comes to the Hall ballot? Please. Martinez was a monster hitter, and could not possibly have significantly damaged his offensive contributions through poor defense, even if he was stationed at shortstop.)
Edgar Martinez deserves a plaque in Cooperstown because he was a great hitter, and because someone, eventually, has to be the first primary DH in the Hall, and we may as well pioneer that with the very best.
Chipmaker's vote: Yes! ...for however long it takes.
Prediction: jumps to 40%, but it could be another Blyleven campaign ahead. Willing to undertake the task, though annoyed that it may come to that.
Of these eight candidates: Larkin and Edgar Martinez. That makes seven so far. Definitely gonna have to throw some names off the lifeboat when I'm done. Oh well....
More candidates tomorrow.
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