The Hall's 2011 BBWAA ballot -- Candidates Review (part 1 of 4)

There are 33 candidates on the Hall ballot this year -- 14 returning, and 19 rookies.

Two items about how I review candidates. First, I tend to put more weight on great seasons than on shiny career totals, because the annual goal of the baseball season is to earn a postseason berth, and a great season does more toward helping achieve that than do a number of good seasons. This doesn't always make a great difference in my candidate assessment, but sometimes it does. Second, regards PEDs -- usage of such (and I don't constrain my considerations to steroids and/or HGH, though these remain the popular memes in baseball) tends not to bother me. In particular, usage (established or, in far more cases, merely suspected) prior to the 2004 steroid ban makes very little difference here. Baseball is a competitive enterprise that attracts competitive people, all of whom are continuously looking for an edge over the other guys. If it wasn't against baseball policy, it was not only available, but expected and tacitly encouraged on a cultural level. If it was against the law, that would be a matter for the relevant district attorney. Playing baseball at the major league level is hard, and talent never came out of a bottle. Magic waters might make a player better, but anyone in the big leagues was pretty damn good to begin with. And, lastly, if steroid usage was as widespread as some sources claim -- well over half of the major league population -- than advantages were largely negated, and relative greatness on the field still shone through. I'm okay with that.

Anyone caught using steroids after the 2004 ban, however, is an idiot, and I have no problem factoring in that as well. If any player is mentioned (other than incidentally) in the Mitchell Report, that is noted.

With that, let's go to the first eight candidates on this year's ballot, using the traditional alphabetical order. The asterisk * indicates the team which, if elected, I expect would be on the player's plaque cap.


1. Roberto Alomar (career stats | reviewed on 2010 ballot)

Year on ballot: 2nd (13 remaining).
Peak return: 73.7% (2010).
2010 return: 73.7% (eight votes short of election).

Career: 17 seasons, 1988-2004 -- San Diego Padres 1988-90, *Toronto Blue Jays 1991-95, Baltimore Orioles 1996-98, Cleveland Indians 1999-2001, New York Mets 2002-03, Chicago White Sox 2003 & '04, Arizona Diamondbacks 2004.
Peak season: 1999 -- 24 HR (career high), 120 RBI (career high), .323/ .422/ .533, 182 hits, 138 runs (led AL), 139 OPS+, 7.9 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 2001.
Career WAR: 63.5.
Primary position: second baseman.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 12 All-Star selections (nine starts), ten AL Gold Gloves for 2B, four AL Silver Sluggers for 2B, MVP Awards for the 1992 ALCS and the 1998 All-Star Game. Member of 1992 & 1993 World Series champion Blue Jays and five other postseason teams. Led AL in runs scored in 1999. Member of the Blue Jays Ring of Excellence.

Okay, writers, you delivered your slap on Alomar's wrist for spitting on the umpire long ago. We get it. Message received. Now, vote this man in like he deserves and like you know he deserves.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: 81%, elected.


2. Carlos Baerga (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 14 seasons, 1990-99, 2002-05 -- *Cleveland Indians 1990-96 & '99, New York Mets 1996-98, San Diego Padres 1999, Boston Red Sox 2002, Arizona Diamondbacks 2003-04, Washington Nationals 2005.
Peak season: 1992 -- 205 hits, 32 doubles, 20 HR, 105 RBI, .312 / .354 / .455, 92 runs, 127 OPS+, 5.5 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1993, 1994.
Career WAR: 16.0.
Primary position: second baseman.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (one start), two AL Silver Sluggers for second base. Led the AL in singles in 1992. Led the AL in putouts by a second baseman in 1992-93, and in assists by a second baseman in 1992, '93, and '95. Member of the 1995 AL champion Cleveland Indians, a genuine monster team.

Baerga had a brilliant but very short peak, two great seasons and two more that would have looked even better were it not for the 1994-95 strike. But he quickly fell to pieces after, which is curious because he was entering his late 20's, when most players have their peak. His 1998 season was the last time he played more than 105 games in a season; he quickly fell -- no, crashed -- to backup player status. Different teams kept giving him chances, but all he showed was that he had very little left. It happens. Good player, but well short of Hall measure.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: this will be Baerga's only ballot. Less than 5%, and relegated.


3. Jeff Bagwell (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 15 seasons, 1991-2005 -- all with the *Houston Astros.
Peak season: 1994 -- sure, it was a strike-shortened season, but Bags played in 110 of Houston's 115 games, and suffered one of the best-timed major injuries in history. Bagwell's season ended when he was hit by a pitch, breaking a bone, on August 10, and the strike ended the season on August 11. Without the strike, he probably doesn't win the NL MVP, but that is what happened, and this is what he did: 147 hits, 32 doubles, 39 HR, 116 RBI, 65 walks, .368 / .451 / .750, 104 runs scored, 213 OPS+, 8.9 WAR (in a short season). Geez.
Other outstanding seasons: 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001... he made a habit of being great.
Career WAR: 79.9.
Primary position: first baseman.
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections (two starts), 1994 NL MVP, 1991 NL Rookie Of The Year, three NL Silver Sluggers, one NL Gold Glove for 1B. Led NL in games played four times, runs scored three times, doubles once, RBI once, walks once, slugging once. Jersey #5 retired by the Astros.

Ah, Jeff Bagwell -- the reason Larry Andersen is still a known name. Traded late in the 1990 season, he never played for Boston (alas), but built a legend in the Astrodome. Bagwell could always hit, nearly winning a batting title in AA despite a hitter-hostile home park. The 'Dome was not much nicer, yet Bags had the talent to master it. He rolled to his ROY award, even parking a home run into the third deck in Three Rivers Stadium, where typically only Willie Stargell could reach -- and that was just the beginning. Together with Craig Biggio, they formed the heart of the Killer B's (there was typically a third "B" on the roster -- Derek Bell for a while, Lance Berkman later, and others), and propelled the Astros to four division titles and six total postseason appearances in a nine-year span, culminating in the 2005 NL pennant and World Series. All that would not have happened without this man.

Bagwell could hit like thunder, and did so from his amateur days, during his brief time in the minors, and throughout his big league career until shoulder arthritis drained his power. Bagwell hit, hit, hit, hit, hit, hit for power, drew walks, and kept on hitting. I like seasons with an OPS+ of 140 or better (as a rule of thumb; it's not absolute). Bagwell had eight such seasons, typically well above 140, plus four other seasons in the high 130s. And he was pretty good on defense as well. No player posts an immaculate career, anyone can be criticized a li'l bit -- but there's really nothing in Bagwell's career that casts any doubts he is Hall material.

Except for one thing, and no one in a position to know will say it clearly. Bagwell's peak came during the steroid-fueled 1990s, the powerball era, and even though we know little for certain, there are those, entrusted with Hall ballots or not, who hint and allege that maybe there was something about Bagwell. Lookit those forearms! (They were impressive.) Well, tough beans -- if there's hard evidence, produce it, or let it go. There's nothing credible about Bagwell being involved; nothing has come to light. Some voters claim they want to wait and see -- fine, I suppose. There is and likely always will be a contingent who withhold their vote from any player's first time on the ballot -- the reasons why are irrelevant -- and I recognize there will be some who think Bagwell is worthy but "not first-ballot worthy". I disagree, but whaddya gonna do? If he misses this year, and I suspect he will (but not by much), the votes will be there next time. The voters get a pass on criticism of their first ballots. But if he misses again -- there will need to be a reckoning. What reasons then? If there's evidence, produce it -- or swallow the suspicions and cast this man his deserved votes.

Jeff Bagwell is, clearly (and cleanly), a Hall Of Fame player.

Chipmaker's vote: YES!

Prediction: lands closely aside Barry Larkin, over 60% but short of election.


4. Harold Baines (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 5th (10 remaining).
Peak return: 6.1% (2010).
2010 return: 6.1%.

Career: 22 seasons, 1980-2001 -- *Chicago White Sox 1980-89, '96-97, & 2000-01, Texas Rangers 1989-90, Oakland Athletics 1990-92, Baltimore Orioles 1993-95 & '97-2000, Cleveland Indians 1999.
Peak season: 1984 -- 29 HR (career high), 94 RBI, .304/.361/.541, 142 OPS+, 109 RC, 3.6 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1989, 1991, 1996.
Career WAR: 37.0.
Primary position: right field for seven seasons, then designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Six All-Star selections (one start), one Silver Slugger, led the AL in slugging average in 1984. Good postseason hitter (.324/.378/.510 in 31 G, 102 AB). Jersey #3 retired by the White Sox.

There's a hardcore contingent of voters from the Chicago BBWAA chapter that keeps Baines on the ballot, but his candidacy is going nowhere. As a hitter, he was good, sometimes very good, but not great, and as a designated hitter, his hitting is essentially his only credential. And his hitting isn't enough. Move along, nothing to see here.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: climbs to 7%, because hey, why not?


5. Bert Blyleven (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 14th (one remaining).
Peak return: 74.2% (2010).
2010 return: 74.2% (five votes short of election).

Career: 22 seasons, 1970-90 & 1992 -- *Minnesota Twins 1970-76 & '85-88, Texas Rangers 1976-77, Pittsburgh Pirates 1978-80, Cleveland Indians 1981-85, California Angels 1989-90 & '92.
Peak season: 1973 -- 20-17, 2.52, 258 K, 158 ERA+, 9.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1974, 1977, 1984, 1989.
Career WAR: 90.1 (as a pitcher; drops to 87.6 when considering his batting).
Primary position: right-handed starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Two All-Star selections, led AL in strikeouts once and shutouts three times. Fifth highest career strikeout total, third highest when he retired. 287 career wins (which, alas, is just short of 300). Member of two World Series champion teams, the 1979 Pirates and the 1987 Twins. An excellent postseason pitcher -- 5-1, 2.47 in 8 games, 6 starts, 47.1 IP, 36 K, 8 BB.

My support of Blyleven has been unflagging, and his 2010 return, a whisker short of the finish line, was maddening and enthralling. The internet campaign has never relented, and this year, I think, is Bert's year at last. C'mon, let's get it over with, happy ending.

Chipmaker's vote: YES! (like always)

Prediction: elected. I don't give a damn what the percentage is, as long as it's above 75. Let's win this one and move on to beating the Tim Raines drum.


6. Bret Boone (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 14 seasons, 1992-2005 -- *Seattle Mariners 1992-93 & 2001-05, Cincinnati Reds 1994-98, Atlanta Braves 1999, Minnesota Twins 2005.
Peak season: 2001 -- 158 games, 206 hits, 37 doubles, 37 HR, 141 RBI, 118 runs scored, .331 / .372 / .578, 153 OPS+, 9.3 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1994, 2002, 2003.
Career WAR: 21.4.
Primary position: second baseman.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (one start), two AL Silver Sluggers, four Gold Gloves (one NL, three AL). Led league in RBI once, putouts by a second baseman once., fielding percentage by a second baseman three times.

Baseball bonus points: Boone was the first third-generation major league player, following grandfather Ray Boone (1948-60) and father Bob Boone (1972-90). His brother Aaron later joined Bret in this distinction.

Boone was pretty good for a while, with one amazingly great season with the 116-win 2001 Mariners. And he had a few more good seasons after that, but then fell apart starting in 2004 -- when the steroids ban went into effect, which I think was not a mere coincidence. Anyway, that's not particularly important here; what is, is that Boone had more disappointing seasons, league-average at best, than he had great, Hall-class seasons. There's anecdotal evidence that Boone was a product of playing better through chemistry (Mitchell has nothing about him), but even if so, it wasn't enough here. Good for a time, but not all-time great.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: one and out.


7. Kevin Brown (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 19 seasons, 1986 & 1988-2005 -- *Texas Rangers 1986 & '88-94, Baltimore Orioles 1995, Florida Marlins 1996-97, San Diego Padres 1998, Los Angeles Dodgers 1999-2003, New York Yankees 2004-05.
Peak season: 1996 -- 17-11, 1.89 ERA, 32 starts, 5 CG, 3 shutouts, 233.0 innings pitched, 159 K, 33 walks, 217 ERA+, 0.994 WHIP, 7.5 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2003.
Career WAR: 64.8 as a pitcher (-0.8 as a batter).
Primary position: starting pitcher (right handed).
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections (one start). Led his league in wins once, games started three times, innings pitched once, ERA twice, ERA+ once, WHIP twice. Member of the 1997 World Series champion Marlins and the 1998 NL champion Padres.

Mitchell Report: has his own section (pp. 214-217) implicating him having purchased and probably used human growth hormone and, once, a steroid.

What people probably remember best about Brown is his seven-year, $105 million contract he signed with the Dodgers, and how he never seemed able to measure up to it (in fact, some of his seasons under that deal were outstanding; others, derailed by injuries). That wasn't a smart contract from the start, but that wasn't Brown's fault.

What people don't remember so well is how good a pitcher Brown was most of the time. No, he didn't pile up Ws, because the modern game isn't conducive to that, but he did prevent baserunners and runs, during an era when that was increasingly difficult to do. Lack of Ws, particularly not having 20 or more in a season during his peak, is one reason he never won a Cy Young Award (he did finish second once and third once). That doesn't make him a lesser pitcher, just a less recognized one. Brown could pitch crazy good, but doing it during the same time that Maddux and Martinez and Clemens and Johnson were doing it even better, made it hard to stand out. (I remember well he was sheer terror upon the 1998 Astros in the postseason -- that was the best Houston team ever, they'd added Johnson late in the year, and Brown still ate their entire lunch in two games in October.)

So how does Brown stand? His peak, a pretty long one, runs from 1992 through 2001, ten seasons. Let's check a few stats during that time, using a minimum of 100 games started.

Adjusted ERA:
1. Maddux, 172
2. Martinez, 170
3. Johnson, 159
4t. Clemens, 142
4t. Rijo, 142
6. Brown, 140
7. Glavine, 132
8t. Smoltz, 131
8t. Mussina, 131
10. Schilling, 130

WHIP:
1. Martinez, 1.021
2. Maddux, 1.022
3. Schilling, 1.113
4. Johnson, 1.123
5. Saberhagen, 1.154
6. Smoltz, 1.156
7. Brown, 1.160
8. Mussina, 1.166
9. Rijo, 1.189
10. Reed, 1.199

WAR
1. Maddux, 64.4
2. Johnson, 60.2
3. Clemens, 56.3
4. Martinez, 51.4
5. Brown, 51.2
6. Mussina, 48.9
7. Schilling, 44.1
8. Appier, 43.1
9. Cone, 41.9
10. Glavine, 40.8

He's in good company.

So, is this good enough for the Hall? I've long considered that the big five -- Maddux, Johnson, Martinez, Glavine, and Clemens (yes, even Clemens, especially Clemens) were clearly a cut above other starting pitchers, with Schilling and Mussina a step behind. Brown fits in neatly with these last two. And now he gets on the ballot first, before I've had to really consider Curt and Moose. Brown wasn't a nice guy, from most reports, and he has the PED sword dangling over him, so I expect he's not going to get elected, not in 2011 and probably never. That's certainly the easy choice. But I'm going to give him my thumbs-up, with the caveat that, if at the end of this week I have more than ten candidates (real voters are limited to ten names), Brown will likely be one of my cuts.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes, though I may toss him based upon the ten name limit.

Prediction: 10%. Hangs around for a long while.


8. John Franco (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 21 seasons, 1984-2001 & 2003-05 -- Cincinnati Reds 1984-89, *New York Mets 1990-2001 & '03-04, Houston Astros 2005.
Peak season: 1988 -- 6-6, 39 saves, 1.57, 86.0 innings, 46 strikeouts, 230 ERA+, 1.012 WHIP, 3.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1985, 1987, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2003.
Career WAR: 25.8 as a pitcher (-0.3 as a batter).
Primary position: relief pitcher (left handed).
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections, 1988 & 1990 NL Rolaids Relief Man Award. Led league in saves three times, games finished twice. Holds the major league record for games pitched (1119) without a start (zero). Career 424 saves ranked third all-time when he retired, currently fourth.

Yeesh, another left-handed reliever -- we've seen a bunch of good ones on recent ballots. Franco looks better than any of them. Never given the ball at the start of the game (even Orosco picked up four starts in his early years), Franco only pitched more than 90 innings twice, with three other seasons of 80+ (and just missed in his rookie year, with 79.1) -- and those were his big workloads. After he moved to the Mets, he never threw 70 innings in a season, and was usually below sixty. He was a closer, until his final few seasons when he transitioned to being a LOOGY -- a lefty one-out guy.

Now, a closer's innings tend to be high leverage -- clutch, if you will -- where one run allowed can swing or even blow the game. It's not an easy role; few thrive at being closers for more than a season or two. Franco was one of the few who performed well and at a high level for an extended duration. He knew what to do and did it, got the outs, earned the save, sealed the win. That's valuable.

Was he Hall class? Closers are still gaining the attention and respect of the voters, but there have been several in recent years -- Eckersley, Sutter, Fingers, Gossage. So the "Hall reliever" profile is taking shape. Franco, I think, fits well with these peers. He did his job, very well, for a long time. I'm going to approach him like I did Brown -- name him to my virtual ballot, but he'll be among the first tossed off if I have too many names. He'd look good on a plaque, but it doesn't have to be this year and I'm not going to argue deeply in his favor. Welcome aboard, John.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes, though dumped if needs be.

Prediction: stays on the ballot with a nondescript 9%, but as with recent closers and Smith above him, builds steam over the next 5-10 years. If he gets in, it'll be years from now -- but it could happen.


Of the first eight candidates: yes to Alomar, Bagwell, Blyleven, and tentatively to Brown and Franco. Hm, that's five already, and there are six other returning candidates I've supported before, so someone is going to get booted off this island.

More tomorrow.