The Hall's 2011 BBWAA ballot -- Candidates Review (part 4 of 4)

Concluding the review of the 2011 Hall ballot candidates...


25. Rafael Palmeiro (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 20 seasons, 1986-2005 -- Chicago Cubs 1986-88, *Texas Rangers 1989-93 & 1999-2003, Baltimore Orioles 1994-98 & 2004-05.
Peak season: 1993 -- 176 hits, 40 doubles, 37 HR, 105 RBI, 124 runs scored, .295 / .371 / .554, 150 OPS+, 7.4 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1991, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002.
Career WAR: 66.0.
Primary position: first baseman. He DH'd some in his older seasons, but that was his primary role only twice, 1999 and 2003.
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections (one start), two AL Silver Sluggers, three AL Gold Gloves for first base (though the one in 1999 was a bad joke, as he played only 28 games at 1B). Led league in hits once and runs scored once -- but he was in the top ten, and often the top five, in many categories in many seasons. Member of the 500 Home Run Club (569) and 3000 Hits Club (3020).

Mitchell Report: mentioned for having failed a steroids test (stanozolol was found in his system) in 2005, for which he was suspended for ten games. Named by Canseco as having been using under his supervision, possibly as early as 1992.

I'm listing the players in alphabetical order, but I thought I should mention that I saved Palmeiro for last in my evaluations. His candidacy brings all sorts of discussion with it.

Let's talk his playing merits first. Great hitter, excellent power even given hitter-friendly home parks, very good at taking a walk (and plate patience doesn't come from a bottle). If Palmeiro didn't have special circumstances about him, he'd be a first-ballot Hall honoree, and easily.

Alas, it's not easy here. Palmeiro testified before Congress in March 2005, emphatically stating that he had never used steroids -- and then, a few months later, MLB announced that he had failed a steroids test, the first major name so nailed. The sample had been taken in May, Palmeiro had gone through the defined appeals process, and in August he was suspended. When he returned, road crowds were harsh on him, he managed to poke two more hits, the Orioles told him to take the rest of the season off, and he was done. That's an ugly ending to any career.

I really don't care what happened or who did what prior to 2004, when the steroids ban went into effect. No rules means there's no rulebreaking -- and while primary responsibility for PED usage must always fall upon the players who chose to use, the entire culture around Major League Baseball was one of tacit permission. No one asked, no one told, no one wanted to know. The homers were flying, the turnstiles were spinning, the records were falling, most everyone was happy. If you were there, it was a blast watching, following, enjoying baseball. Until, finally, the government put the squeeze on Commissioner Selig and got him to take action, and a number of the players urged their union to cooperate. Whatever happened before 2004, for the most part, the players got away with nearly all of it.

The smart players read the tea leaves and left their steroids behind (or, perhaps, moved to newer, more elusive blends that had not yet been prohibited; getting sneakier is always an appealing option for some). Clearly, Palmeiro did not. He got caught; that he got caught after his bit of theater in Washington just twisted the irony knife all the more.

I'm the sort who can give the benefit of doubt rather easily. Not here. Palmeiro has been vocal, when inclined to speak, that he was caught due to tainted B12 vitamins injected by a teammate. Nice story, but holds water like a sieve. His subsequent actions say much more. If he had done anything to show credulity in his story -- sued Canseco for what he wrote in his book; offered up other samples of himself (blood or, in particular, hair, where traces can linger for months) for testing; offered to sign a 2006 contract for the major league minimum and be tested weekly to clear (or at least slightly polish) his name; maybe even had he, and here I'm stretching, paid some damn attention to what was being put into his body, which as a professional athlete is his single most valuable asset -- that would have helped. No; Palmeiro took his exile. What it adds up to is in sharp conflict with his story, no matter how he sticks to it. I cannot grant him credence, or absolution. He failed a test. He used, inadvertently (which if so was incredibly stupid of him) or deliberately, and after the ban was in place. Bad, bad decision. Here come the bad consequences.

As a player, I would like to support him. Maybe some other year, if he stays on the ballot, I will. Not this time. The writers, I have no doubt, will be playing the Roman Senate to Palmeiro's Caesar this time, their long knives sharpened and polished and at the ready; they've been waiting to spill steroid-laced blood -- McGwire until this past year had some doubt (and retired long before the ban) and Bonds is still two years away -- so Raffy is going to go down, and hard.

I hope he does stay on the ballot. The discussion alone might prove fruitful. His candidacy is toast, though.

Chipmaker's vote: No. Dammit, Palmeiro. Damn you for being such a nitwit.

Prediction: stays on the ballot, but well behind McGwire. Oh, 10%. I don't know, but it'll be a small return.


26. Dave Parker (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 15 (last chance with the BBWAA).
Peak return: 24.5% (1998).
2010 return: 15.2%

Career: 19 seasons, 1973-91 -- *Pittsburgh Pirates 1973-83, Cincinnati Reds 1984-87, Oakland Athletics 1988-89, Milwaukee Brewers 1990, California Angels 1991, Toronto Blue Jays 1991.
Peak season: 1978 -- 194 hits, 32 doubles, 12 triples, 30 HR, 117 RBI, 102 runs scored, 20 stolen bases, .334 / .394 / .585, 166 OPS+, 7.1 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1975, 1977, 1979, 1985.
Career WAR: 37.8.
Primary position: right field, finished as a designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (four starts), 1978 NL MVP, 1979 All-Star MVP, three NL Gold Gloves for OF, three Silver Sluggers (two NL for OF, one AL for DH). Led league in batting twice, slugging twice, hits once, RBI once. Member of two World Series champions, the 1979 Pirates and the 1989 Athletics.

Thought question: which is worse, taking an illegal drug in order to feel good, no matter that it destroys your on-field performance, or taking it to play better? Which one cheats the game more? Which cheats the fans more?

Parker had a chance to be a truly great one. His cocaine abuse prevented that from happening. After this year, he falls off the writers ballot, and while I have no doubts that he'll clog the Veterans Committee ballot whenever his chances arise, I don't think he'll get in. This candidacy should end here.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: gets a little bounce from this being his last time, but it matters little. 20%, and I'm being needlessly generous.


27. Tim Raines (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 4 (11 remaining).
Peak return: 30.4% (2010).
2010 return: 30.4%

Career: 23 seasons, 1979-99 & 2001-02 -- *Montréal Expos 1979-90 & 2001, Chicago White Sox 1991-95, New York Yankees 1996-98, Oakland Athletics 1999, Baltimore Orioles 2001, Florida Marlins 2002.
Peak season: 1987 -- 175 hits, 34 doubles, 8 triples, 18 HR, 68 RBI, 50 stolen bases (caught only five times), 90 walks, .330 / .429 / .526, 149 OPS+, 6.8 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1989, 1992, 1993.
Career WAR: 64.6.
Primary position: left field. Leadoff hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (two starts), 1987 All-Star MVP, one NL Silver Slugger. Led league in batting once, on-base percentage once, runs twice, stolen bases four times. Career 84.7% stolen base success rate is the highest for anyone with 300+ SB. 808 career SB ranks fifth all-time. Member of the 1996 and 1998 World Series champion Yankees. Jersey #30 retired by the Expos.

Raines is the second-best leadoff man in baseball history, behind Rickey Henderson. Being second to Rickey is no shame, because he makes for amazingly good company when ranking the greats. Raines was a great player, and deserves the plaque.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! And Rock is probably the very last chance to put an Expos cap on a plaque, though this is not why I support his candidacy.

Prediction: Increases to 39%. It's gonna take a while.


28. Kirk Rueter (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 13 seasons, 1993-2005 -- Montréal Expos 1993-96, *San Francisco Giants 1996-2005.
Peak season: 2002 -- 14-8, 3.23, 33 starts, 203.2 innings, 76 strikeouts, 120 ERA+, 1.267 WHIP, 2.6 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1993, 1997.
Career WAR: 12.1 (as a pitcher).
Primary position: starting pitcher (left handed).
Honoraria and claims to fame: started his career with a 10-0 record, which must count for something, and indicates just how uninspiring a Hall candidate Rueter is. Member of the 2002 NL champion Giants and the 1994 Montreal Expos, a team always worth remembering.

That line about how just being named on the ballot is an honor? It applies here to Rueter. He was a good pitcher, he won more than he lost, and it's always good to see another Montreal Expo make an appearance, as there are so few left. But cutting to the chase, Rueter is ballot filler, and we won't see him again.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: one vote. Maybe.


29. Benito Santiago (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 20 seasons, 1986-2005 -- *San Diego Padres 1986-92, Florida Marlins 1993-94, Cincinnati Reds 1995 & 2000, Philadelphia Phillies 1996, Toronto Blue Jays 1997-98, Chicago Cubs 1999, San Francisco Giants 2001-03, Kansas City Royals 2004, Pittsburgh Pirates 2005.
Peak season: 1996 -- 127 hits, 21 doubles, 30 HR, 85 RBI, 71 runs scored, .264 / .332 / .503, 117 OPS+, 2.8 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1987, 1988, 1990, 1991, 2002. This is being generous.
Career WAR: 23.8.
Primary position: catcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections (three starts), 1987 NL Rookie Of The Year Award, three NL Gold Gloves for catcher, four NL Silver Sluggers, 2002 NLCS MVP. Led league in assists by a catcher three times, caught steals once, caught stealing percentage once. Member of the 2002 NL champion Giants.

Mitchell Report: Named by Greg Anderson as a player whom he supplied with "cream" and "clear", since known to be, and defined as, anabolic androgenic steroids. Santiago acknowledged in grand jury testimony that he had used performance enhancing drugs, though his lawyer claimed Santiago did not know what they were. That's pretty much what Barry Bonds has claimed, but since Bonds is far and away the biggest fish in the BALCO scandal, no one much cares that Santiago was right there too. Hey, it wasn't Benito hitting all those home runs. (It really annoys me that people, particularly those most interested in blood, don't really want to punish all PED users. They just want to punish the ones who appeared to get the most benefit. It's like if two students cheated identically on a test, and one got an A, and the other a D, no one gives a toss about the kid who got the D. It becomes not about the offense, but about the magnitude. While I recognize the value in "making an example of someone" and doing so effectively, I don't fully agree with that approach.) Also has his own section in the Mitchell Report, starting on p. 134, but it mostly discusses syringes found in his locker, though there is a mention of human growth hormone as well.

How to extend your major league career:
1. Be a catcher, because other than left-handed relievers, there is no position that gets more additional chances (and, more to the point, contract offers). There's always a space for a backup catcher. You won't make the big money, but you'll have a job.
2. Win a ROY award. It indicates that, at least once upon a time, you had some real promise. This alone will get you five last-chance seasons in the majors, if you have anything left in your tank.
3. Use PEDs, apparently.

Santiago hit the trifecta. It kept him in the big leagues for 20 years, and that's impressive, because he couldn't hit anything else. He'd smack some doubles and some homers, but he never walked, was rarely above league-average over a season, and even when he was he wasn't much above average. (His 1996 season saw career highs with 30 homers, 49 walks, and a 117 OPS+. Career second-bests: 18 HR, 37 walks, and (in a full season) 111 OPS+.) By Nichols' Law of Catcher Defense, any catcher who cannot hit automatically gains a sterling defensive reputation, deserved or not. Santiago had it; a team needs someone behind the plate, and will endure a weak bat in exchange for the man willing to strap on the tools of ignorance and be at least competent at calling a game and blocking pitches in the dirt. It got him two decades in the majors, and that's rare. The Hall ballot is his last hurrah.

Chipmaker's vote: No. Nothing to do with PEDs, where he surely looks red-handed, because they did nothing for his playing stats, though just on endurance it might have given him a few extra seasons. Playing catcher is tough; most wear out long before age 40.

Prediction: 4% and relegated. No voter's ballot review will bother mentioning the Mitchell Report material, because no one cares enough.


30. Lee Smith (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 9 (six remaining).
Peak return: 47.3% (2010).
2010 return: 47.3%

Career: 18 seasons, 1980-97 -- *Chicago Cubs 1980-87, Boston Red Sox 1988-90, St. Louis Cardinals 1990-93, New York Yankees 1993, Baltimore Orioles 1994, California Angels 1995-96, Cincinnati Reds 1996, Montréal Expos 1997.
Peak season: 1991 -- 6-3, 47 saves, 2.34, 67 K, 157 ERA+, 1.137 WHIP, 2.6 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1982, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1990, 1994.
Career WAR: 30.3 (as a pitcher).
Primary position: relief pitcher (right handed), primarily a closer.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections, three Rolaids Relief Awards (two NL, one AL). Led league in saves four times. Held the career record for saves from 1993 to 2006; currently third all-time.

I changed my position on Smith last year, and decided to support him, as he is easily comparable to the relievers already in the Hall and, yeah, he was a damn good closer in his own right. He did his job very well and did it for a very long time. So I'm still in his camp, and don't anticipate abandoning his candidacy.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: cracks 50%, but it's gonna be a slog to get Smith inducted.


31. B.J. Surhoff (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 19 seasons, 1987-2005 -- *Milwaukee Brewers 1987-95, Baltimore Orioles 1996-2000 & 2003-05, Atlanta Braves 2000-02.
Peak season: 1999 -- 207 hits, 38 doubles, 28 HR, 107 RBI, 104 runs scored, .308 / .347 / .492, 115 OPS+, 4.4 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1996, 1997.
Career WAR: 34.4.
Primary position: catcher in his younger seasons, left fielder later. Played third base for a couple of seasons.
Honoraria and claims to fame: one All-Star selection. Led league in games played once, assists by a catcher once, assists by a left fielder twice.

Surhoff didn't hit much when he was a catcher, and though he did better when he moved to the outfield, he didn't hit well enough to be considered elite at that position. Not the sort of player who would be a major contributor to a champion team. Not a bad player, no one lasts 19 seasons by mistake or serendipity, he was useful to have. But there's nothing in his career that proclaims greatness.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: 2% and relegated. If Murphy cannot get bonus points for being a nice guy, Surhoff's got no chance.


32. Alan Trammell (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 10 (five remaining).
Peak return: 22.5% (2010).
2010 return: 22.5%

Career: 20 seasons, 1977-96 -- *Detroit Tigers all the while.
Peak season: 1987 -- 205 hits, 34 doubles, 28 HR, 105 RBI, 109 runs scored, 21 stolen bases (against 2 caught steals), .343 / .402 / .551, 155 OPS+, 8.4 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1993.
Career WAR: 66.9.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Six All-Star selections, 1984 World Series MVP, four AL Gold Gloves, three AL Silver Sluggers. Member of the 1984 World Series champion Tigers.

Baseball bonus points: Trammell was manager of the Tigers for three seasons, 2003-05. The 2003 team was, of course, an utter disaster. That cannot possibly be all Trammell's responsibility, but this part of his career does nothing to help his Hall candidacy.

Trammell continues to annoy me. His candidacy gets a bit tarnished by his contemporaries, Ripken and Smith, who were both brilliant at one side of the game (Cal, offense) or the other (Ozzie, D). Trammell fits in the middle -- and now Larkin is on the ballot, also a middle-grounder, but clearly a better player. Trammell just has a hard time shining through.

But I haven't supported him before and, to take the easy way out, I won't support him again... though I wavered more than usual this year. Maybe 2012. It's not looking good anyway -- the writers are showing him little love, and his runway is getting really short.

Chipmaker's vote: No. But I might cave next time.

Prediction: uptick to 25%, but little reason for genuine hope.


33. Larry Walker (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 17 seasons, 1989-2005 -- Montreal Expos 1989-94, *Colorado Rockies 1995-2004, St. Louis Cardinals 2004-05.
Peak season: 1997 -- 208 hits, 46 doubles, 49 HR, 130 RBI, 143 runs scored, 409 total bases, .366 / .452 /.720, 178 OPS+, 9.0 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 1993, 1994, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2002.
Career WAR: 67.3.
Primary position: right fielder.
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections (four starts), 1997 NL MVP Award, seven NL Gold Gloves, three NL Silver Sluggers. Led league in batting three times, on-base percentage twice, slugging twice, doubles once, HR once, assists by a right fielder three times. Member of the 2004 NL champion Cardinals, and hit the only two homers St. Louis had against Boston in the World Series.

Ah, here it is at last -- the first real test of Coors Field versus the Hall Of Fame voters. Larry Walker, superstar slugging right fielder in the offensive paradise of Denver. Was he really all that? Let's take a look at his career, minus his games in the Mile High City (he played a few games as a visitor before joining the Rockies).

Walker in Denver: 604 games, 2163 at-bats, 823 hits, 181 doubles, 32 triples, 155 HR, .380 batting, .461 on-base, .709 slugging.

Walker elsewhere: 1384 games, 4744 at-bats, 1337 hits, 290 doubles, 30 triples, 228 HR, .282 batting, .372 on-base, .500 slugging.

Yes, the thin air helps everyone, Walker included. But check out that second line -- .372 OBP, .500 SLG, .872 OPS is pretty darn good. Here's some HOFers who played after WWII who had an OPS in the .850-.900 range, in increasing order: Billy Williams (.853), Jim Rice, Al Kaline, George Brett, Monte Irvin, Wade Boggs, Roy Campanella, Larry Doby, Jackie Robinson, Harmon Killebrew, Eddie Mathews, Willie McCovey (.889), Willie Stargell (.889). Walker outside of Denver looks, in this one perspective, to have been Hall-class.

Baseball Reference provides adjusted OPS, which includes adjusting for a player's home park. Here's Walker's OPS+ numbers for his Rockies seasons: 130, 116, 178 (his MVP year), 158, 163, 110, 160, 150, 121, 166 (partial season, traded to St. Louis). Geez, could this guy hit. And he was good in the field too.

And in Denver? OPS of 1.169. Sure, the air helped, but it helped Walker like few others -- or, more to the point, he took better advantage of it than just about anyone else.

His career OPS, .965, sits near post-war HOFers like Willie Mays (.941), Ralph Kiner (.946), Mickey Mantle (.977), and Stan Musial (.978). Walker's numbers might not be putting him in this elite class qualitatively, but he certainly was a great player. And I have a hard time denying great players.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! This man was not merely a product of the rarefied air.

Prediction: Gets 25% to start. It'll climb. He'll probably make it. But it's probably going to take a Blyleven-type campaign to do it.



From these final nine candidates: Raines, Smith, Walker. And that makes for 13 candidates, too many. A short wrap-up post to follow, where I cut down my virtual ballot to ten names.