The Hall's 2011 BBWAA ballot -- Candidates Review (part 3 of 4)

Continuing with the 2011 Hall ballot candidates...

17. Tino Martinez (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 16 seasons, 19902-2005 -- Seattle Mariners 1990-95, *New York Yankees 1996-2001 & 2005, St. Louis Cardinals 2002-03, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 2004.
Peak season: 1997 -- 176 hits, 31 doubles, 44 HR, 141 RBI, 96 runs scored, .296 / .371 / .577, 143 OPS+, 5.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1998.
Career WAR: 25.7.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections (one start), one AL Silver Slugger. Member of the Yankees during their recent 1996-2001 dynasty, when they won five AL pennants and four World Series championships.

Martinez was a good first baseman -- hit well, did okay on defense. But he wasn't a great one. He helped the Yankees win -- and did contribute more than the next guy on this list, whom he had to replace, and although he played well he could never supplant the image and aura Mattingly had -- but they would have won with another first baseman. Good, pleasantly consistent, but not great.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: hangs around with Mattingly and Murphy in the 10-20% zone for a while. Yankees who played on championship teams tend to get undying support.


18. Don Mattingly (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 11th (four remaining).
Peak return: 28.2% (2001).
2010 return: 16.1%

Career: 14 seasons, 1982-95 -- all with the *New York Yankees.
Peak season: 1986 -- 238 hits, 53 doubles, 31 HR, 113 RBI, 117 runs scored, .352 / .394 / .573, 161 OPS+, 6.9 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1984, 1985, 1987, 1988, 1989.
Career WAR: 39.8.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections (one start), 1985 AL MVP, nine AL Gold Gloves at 1B, three AL Silver Sluggers at 1B, 1984 AL batting champion. Led league in slugging once, hits twice, doubles three times, RBI once. Set the major league single season record for grand slams with six in 1987. Tied the ML record for consecutive games with a home run, with eight. Jersey #23 retired by the Yankees.

Four brilliant years, two more good years, and then he was around league average for the rest of his career. It neatly splits in half, much like Koufax's does, but whereas Sandy was pedestrian in the first half and then soared to the heights -- and left while riding high, leaving fans to wonder what more he could have done -- Donnie went from high to low, and we knew we'd seen what there was to see. It's still not enough.

Take hope, Mattingly fans. He's now the Dodgers manager, and maybe -- no way to predict reliably, but maybe -- that position will eventually lead him to Cooperstown. While he'd look good on a plaque, Yankees fans would blow a collective gasket seeing him with an "LA" adorning his cap instead of the familiar "NY".

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: just another return in high teens. Nothing to see here.


19. Fred McGriff (career stats | reviewed on 2010 ballot)

Year on ballot: 2nd (13 remaining).
Peak return: 21.5% (2010).
2010 return: 21.5%

Career: 19 seasons, 1986-2004 -- Toronto Blue Jays 1986-90, San Diego Padres 1991-93, *Atlanta Braves 1993-97, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 1998-2001 & 2004, Chicago Cubs 2001-02, Los Angeles Dodgers 2003.
Peak season: 1992 -- 152 hits, 30 doubles, 35 HR, 104 RBI, 79 runs scored, 96 walks, .286 / .394 / .556, 166 OPS+, 5.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1999, 2001.
Career WAR: 50.5.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Five All-Star selections (three starts), three Silver Sluggers (one AL, two NL) for 1B, led both leagues in HR once each. 1994 All-Star MVP. Member of the 1995 World Series champion Braves.

Damn good hitter, and for a long time. McGriff was also preternaturally durable -- from 1988 through 1998, he never played fewer than 151 games (except, of course, the two strike seasons, and there he was in 113 of 114 in '94 and the full 144 in '95) -- and when his streak ended in '99, he played in 144 games, and then followed this with 158, 146, and 146. That's the sort of reliability that managers love being able to count on. He wasn't flashy or loud, but he was often among the league leaders in power and was a big part of some of the Atlanta division-winning dynasty teams. I liked him then and I like him now.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: man, was his 2010 return disappointing. Let's see him jump to 28%.


20. Mark McGwire (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 5th (ten remaining).
Peak return: 23.7% (2010).
2010 return: 23.7%

Career: 16 seasons, 1986-2001 -- *Oakland Athletics 1986-97, St. Louis Cardinals 1997-2001.
Peak season: 1998 -- 152 hits, 21 doubles, 70 HR, 147 RBI, 130 runs, 162 walks (then an NL record), .299 / .470 / .752, 216 OPS+, 7.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, and 2000 even though he played only 89 games.
Career WAR: 63.1.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 12 All-Star selections (six starts), 1987 AL ROY, one AL Gold Glove at 1B, three Silver Sluggers (one AL, two NL) at 1B. Led league in on-base percentage twice, slugging four times, home runs four times, RBI once, walks twice. Rookie record 49 HR. Record 70 HR in 1998, since surpassed once. Member of the 1989 World Series champion Athletics. Member of the 500 Home Runs Club (583 career).

Mitchell Report: mentioned as having used androstenedione (legal and MLB permitted at the time) in 1998, and that Canseco named Mac as a teammate whom he introduced to steroids. But this matters little now, since McGwire has given his public testimony that yes, he used steroids.

The public got their pound of flesh back in January, when McGwire broke the story that he indeed had used steroids during his playing career. Having tasted the blood they craved, the media and public immediately demanded another 99 pounds more, because he didn't get misty-eyed enough or give the steroids full credit for his power or, or, or something. The point to take away from that, unfortunately, is that no amount of confession and contrition will ever be enough, at least for some people.

I'm not one of those people. I didn't care what Mac did then and don't now, because there was no prohibition and certainly no policing. He got himself healthy, and he hit, hit with power, got on base. Those are all key skills to playing baseball, and he did them at an exceedingly high level -- and strike zone discipline doesn't come from a bottle. Even if we estimate a "steroids penalty" he still would have been a league-leading monster at the plate. Greatness shines through, and McGwire had it. I've supported him before and still do, but have no firm idea how the writers will respond -- will some few forgive and vote for him? Or take further petty vengeance and Mac loses votes? He's not going to get in this year, possibly not ever, but the last card in McGwire's candidacy has been laid on the table, so here's where it gets interesting.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: [shrug]. He's held steady in the low 20% range. Goes up? Goes down? I'll play it safe and say he holds steady at 23%.


21. Raul Mondesi (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 13 seasons, 1993-2005 -- *Los Angeles Dodgers 1993-99, Toronto Blue Jays 2000-02, New York Yankees 2002-03, Arizona Diamondbacks 2003, Pittsburgh Pirates 2004, Anaheim Angels 2004, Atlanta Braves 2005.
Peak season: 1997 -- 191 hits, 42 doubles, 30 HR, 87 RBI, 95 runs scored, .310 / .360 / .541, 140 OPS+, 508 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1996.
Career WAR: 27.2.
Primary position: right fielder.
Honoraria and claims to fame: one All-Star selection, 1994 NL Rookie Of The Year Award, two NL Gold Gloves for outfield. Led league in putouts by a right fielder twice, assists by a right fielder three times.

Mondesi was a good player, but not a great one. Good power, not great -- partly that was a product of the times, the powerball 1990s, when 30 dingers wasn't close to being in the league's top ten. He never drove in 100 runs (did have 99 RBI once), but the way everyone else was hitting, maybe the runners were being mopped up by the rest of the lineup. His arm was good enough to play right, and that's valuable, but Mondesi's hitting flatlined after his one big season at age 26 -- didn't get better, didn't get meaningfully worse, just stayed there -- and he quickly crumbled after age 32, getting released (amazingly quietly; I remember having to search widely on the web to find a months-old note about the Braves making a transaction; he essentially vanished) at 34. Not a Hall-class player.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: one and gone. One vote, maybe.


22. Jack Morris (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 12th (three remaining).
Peak return: 52.3% (2010).
2010 return: 52.3%

Career: 18 seasons, 1977-94 -- *Detroit Tigers 1977-90, Minnesota Twins 1991, Toronto Blue Jays 1992-93, Cleveland Indians 1994.
Peak season: 1986 -- 21-8, 3.27, 35 starts, 15 CG, 6 ShO, 267.0 innings, 223 K, 127 ERA+, 4.7 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1979, 1981, 1985, 1987, 1991, 1992.
Career WAR: 39.3 (as a pitcher).
Primary position: starting pitcher (right handed).
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections (three starts), 1991 World Series MVP. Led league in wins twice, strikeouts once, shutouts once, innings pitched once, complete games once. Pitched a no-hitter in 1984. Member of three World Series champion teams, the 1984 Tigers, the 1991 Twins, and the 1992 Blue Jays. A good postseason pitcher, going 7-4, 3.80 in 13 games, 92.1 IP, with one legendary night.

The greatness is there if the viewer wants to see it. I don't see it. Good seasons, some very good seasons, but very little genuine greatness.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: jumps to 55%. Still got a long way to go and a short time to get there.


23. Dale Murphy (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 13th (two remaining).
Peak return: 23.2% (2000).
2010 return: 11.7%

Career: 18 seasons, 1976-93 -- *Atlanta Braves 1976-90, Philadelphia Phillies 1990-92, Colorado Rockies 1993.
Peak season: 1983 -- 178 hits, 24 doubles, 36 HR, 121 RBI, 131 runs scored, 30 stolen bases, 90 walks, .302 / .393 / .540, 149 OPS+, 7.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987.
Career WAR: 44.2.
Primary position: center field, right field when he got older.
Honoraria and claims to fame: seven All-Star selections (five starts), 1982 and 1983 NL MVP Awards, five NL Gold Gloves for outfield, four NL Silver Sluggers for outfield. Led league in slugging twice, runs scored once, home runs twice, RBI twice, walks once. Jersey #3 retired by the Braves.

Well, the writers elected Dawson. Why not Murphy?

I'm not actually making that argument, I don't like the "player A got in, so why not player B?" approach, but here it needed to be said, just to think about. Murf had an excellent, extended peak -- eight seasons, six of them worthy of building a Hall case. I've supported him all this time and I'll continue doing so, but I recognize it's not going to happen here. I don't know why Murphy gets so little support among the voters, but with 4/5 of his candidacy window gone, it's a lost cause, just ticking along until expiry.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! Like always.

Prediction: 12%, because that's about where he always lands.


24. John Olerud (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 17 seasons, 1989-2005 -- *Toronto Blue Jays 1989-96, New York Mets 1997-99, Seattle Mariners 2000-04, New York Yankees 2004, Boston Red Sox 2005.
Peak season: 1993 -- 200 hits, 54 doubles, 24 HR, 107 RBI, 109 runs scored, 114 walks, .363 / .473 / .599, 186 OPS+, 8.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1997, especially 1998, 1999, 2001, 2002.
Career WAR: 56.8.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections (both starts), three AL Gold Gloves for first base. Led league in batting average once (staying above .400 into August), on-base percentage once, doubles once, assists by a first baseman three times. Member of the 1992 and 1993 World Series champion Blue Jays.

Two curiosities about Olerud and his playing career. One, he was well-known for wearing his helmet while playing defense, due to a head injury risk from his college days, but he became so accustomed to it that he continued wearing the helmet after doctors cleared him to play without it. Two, he never played in the minor leagues until his final season, 2005, when the Red Sox had him play three games at AAA level as a brief tune-up to joining the big team.

Olerud was a very good and reliable player, getting into 150+ games in eight seasons. He got on base, he had some power, he played good defense. Eight of his teams saw postseason action. But no first baseman is ever going to earn the plaque with his defense, and while Olerud was a good hitter, he was not a great one outside of his two best seasons (1993 & '98). There should have been, somewhere in there, a step forward that stuck, elevated his game a level. Didn't happen. It's nice to think back on Olerud's career, he was fun to watch and the helmet gave him visible distinction, but he wasn't Hall level but briefly.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: hangs around with Mattingly in the low tens range, 11%.


Of these eight candidates: McGriff, McGwire, Murphy. That makes ten, and there's still a quarter of the ballot to go and I know I like some of the remaining names.