The Hall's 2010 Veterans Committee Ballots -- The Results

The Hall today announced the results of the 2010 Veterans Committee ballots.

Congratulations to Doug Harvey and Whitey Herzog, worthy electees.


Managers & Umpires ballot (12 of 16, 75%, needed for election)

rank candidate......votes..percentage

1. Doug Harvey (u)* ...... 15 93.8% -- ELECTED
2. Whitey Herzog (m) ..... 14 87.5% -- ELECTED
3t. Danny Murtaugh (m)* ... 8 50.0%
3t. Hank O'Day (u) ........ 8 50.0%
5. Charlie Grimm (m)* ..... 3 18.8%
6t. Davey Johnson (m)* ... <3 ≤12.5%
6t. Tom Kelly (m) ........ <3 ≤12.5%
6t. Billy Martin (m) ..... <3 ≤12.5%
6t. Gene Mauch (m) ....... <3 ≤12.5%
6t. Steve O'Neill (m) .... <3 ≤12.5%

* Candidates for whom I would have voted.

Executives & Pioneers ballot (9 of 12, 75%, needed for election)

rank candidate....votes..percentage

1. John Fetzer ....... 8 66.7%
2t. Marvin Miller* ... 7 58.3%
2t. Jacob Ruppert* ... 7 58.3%
4. Ewing Kauffman* ... 6 50.0%
5t. Gene Autry ...... <3 ≤16.7%
5t. Sam Breadon ..... <3 ≤16.7%
5t. Bob Howsam ...... <3 ≤16.7%
5t. John McHale ..... <3 ≤16.7%
5t. Gabe Paul ....... <3 ≤16.7%
5t. Bill White ...... <3 ≤16.7%

* Candidates for whom I would have voted.

Post-mortem.

I'm pleased for Harvey, whom I supported, but only because many players have endorsed him for years.

I was not in support of Herzog, but expected he would get elected, and am pleased enough that he did. No objection here.

For most of the other candidates I supported -- Grimm, Johnson, Kauffman, Murtaugh, and Ruppert -- I'm not terribly disappointed. I never expected them all to get elected, and none of these results surprised me very much.

I am greatly surprised and expectantly disappointed by the return for Miller. Seven votes was far more than I though he'd collect, but it still wasn't good enough. It's possible that he gained four votes just from the new voters on the committee this time, but I think that's unlikely. More probable is that some of the opinions of the voters turned in his favor. If that happens again in the 2012 Executives voting cycle, he may finally get his overdue plaque -- and may not be here to enjoy it. Miller will turn 93 next year. Maybe the Hall's powers are waiting for him to be gone, so he won't get to give a speech which is probably mortally dreaded in baseball's corridors of power. Oh well... maybe next time. It was a good showing, at least.

Next year, the VC votes only on post-1942 debut players. Maybe it will finally be Santo's turn to shine through.

The BBWAA ballot results will be announced January 6, 2010.

The Hall's 2010 Writers Ballot -- Wrap-up

Convenient links, since reading the reviews in order is nicer than scrolling down and then back up and so on.

Candidates
Part 1 -- Alomar, Appier, Baines, Blyleven, Burks, Dawson, Galarraga, Hentgen, Jackson.
Part 2 -- Karros, Lankford, Larkin, Martinez, Mattingly, McGriff, McGwire, Morris, Murphy.
Part 3 -- Parker, Raines, Reynolds, Segui, Smith, Trammell, Ventura, Zeile.

Chipmaker's votes: Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, Martinez, McGriff, McGwire, Murphy, Raines, Smith.

Predictions

Alomar -- 50%.
Appier -- less than 10 votes, relegated.
Baines -- 5-6%, again.
Blyleven -- 69%. Dammit.
Burks -- relegated.
Dawson -- elected with 76%.
Galarraga -- relegated.
Hentgen -- less than 1%, relegated.
Jackson -- less than five votes, relegated.
Karros -- less than 2%, relegated.
Lankford -- a whisker over 5%. This is probably wrong.
Larkin -- 45%.
Martinez -- 30%.
Mattingly -- around 15%.
McGriff -- 40%.
McGwire -- 20-23% again.
Morris -- just over 50%.
Murphy -- 10-15%.
Parker -- 15-20%.
Raines -- around 40%. Probably a very high, wish-based prediction.
Reynolds -- one or zero votes, relegated.
Segui -- zero votes, relegated.
Smith -- 50%.
Trammell -- less than 20%, like always.
Ventura -- 10%.
Zeile -- less than 3%, relegated.

Voting results will be announced Wednesday, January 6, 2010, at 2:00 pm Eastern. Expect the announcement to post first on the Hall's website and the BBWAA's website, with perhaps a live cast on MLB Network.

The Hall's 2010 Writers Ballot -- The Candidates (part 3 of 3)

Concluding the review of this year's Hall candidates, #19-26.


19. Dave Parker (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 13.
Peak return: 24.5% (1998).
2009 return: 15.0%

Career: 19 seasons, 1973-91 -- *Pittsburgh Pirates 1973-83, Cincinnati Reds 1984-87, Oakland Athletics 1988-89, Milwaukee Brewers 1990, California Angels 1991, Toronto Blue Jays 1991.
Peak season: 1978 -- 30 HR, 117 RBI, 102 runs, 194 hits, 32 doubles, 12 triples, 20 stolen bases, .334/.394/.585, 166 OPS+, 134 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1975, 1977, 1979, 1985.
Primary position: right field, finished as a designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (four starts), 1978 NL MVP, 1979 All-Star MVP, three NL Gold Gloves for OF, three Silver Sluggers (two NL for OF, one AL for DH), two NL batting championships, led the NL in slugging twice, hits once, RBI once. Member of two World Series champions, the 1979 Pirates and the 1989 Athletics.

Great peak, but pedestrian outside of it. This is your adjusted OPS on drugs, youngsters. Playing clean does have its merits.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: Another 15-20% return. Parker has his proponents, but this candidacy is just whiling away until the 15 years expire, which will be soon.


20. Tim Raines (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 2.
Peak return: 24.3% (2008).
2009 return: 22.6%

Career: 23 seasons, 1979-99 & 2001-02 -- *Montréal Expos 1979-90 & 2001, Chicago White Sox 1991-95, New York Yankees 1996-98, Oakland Athletics 1999, Baltimore Orioles 2001, Florida Marlins 2002.
Peak season: 1987 -- 123 runs, 175 hits, 34 doubles, 18 HR, 68 RBI, 50 stolen bases (against five caught steals!), 90 walks, .330/.429/.526, 149 OPS+, 132 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1984, 1985, 1986, 1989, 1993.
Primary position: left field. Leadoff hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (two starts), 1987 All-Star MVP, one NL Silver Slugger for Outfield, one NL batting championship, led NL in on-base percentage once, runs twice, stolen bases four times. Career 84.7% stolen base success rate is the highest for anyone with 300+ SB; 808 career SB ranks fifth all-time. Member of the 1996 and 1998 World Series champion Yankees. Jersey #30 retired by the Expos.

Okay, voters, Rickey is in. Now, please, is it Rock's turn? The lowest on-base percentage he ever posted in a 100+ games played season was .350. Devastating player, eminently plaque-worthy.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: It's a flying leap of a hope, but I'd like to see Raines take a big jump, over 40%. If enough voters were quietly playing a "Rickey First" card, well, that's done, so let's get going.


21. Shane Reynolds (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 13 seasons, 1992-2004 -- *Houston Astros 1992-2002, Atlanta Braves 2003, Arizona Diamondbacks 2004.
Peak season: 1998 -- 19-8, 3.51, 3 complete games, 1 ShO, 233.1 IP, 209 K, 117 ERA+, 1.329 WHIP.
Other outstanding seasons: 1994, 1999. Not a lot to see here.
Primary position: right-handed starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: One All-Star selection. Led NL in games started twice.

Reynolds was a good pitcher, a little above league average at preventing baserunners and runs, but there is nothing exceptional in his career to even hint at Hall worthiness.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: If he gets one vote, it'll be a token sop from a Houston-area voter, much like Jim DeShaies got in 2001.


22. David Segui (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 15 seasons, 1990-2004 -- *Baltimore Orioles 1990-93 & 2001-04, New York Mets 1994-95, Montreal Expos 1995-97, Seattle Mariners 1998-99, Toronto Blue Jays 1999, Texas Rangers 2000, Cleveland Indians 2000.
Peak season: 2000 -- 19 HR, 103 RBI, .334/.388/.510, 93 runs, 193 hits, 42 doubles, 124 OPS+, 110 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1997, 1998, his partial 2001 season.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Second generation ballplayer; papa Diego Segui pitched for 15 seasons.

There's not much to say about Segui -- not much by way of Hall testimony, at least. The most noteworthy item about his career is that he has his own section in the Mitchell Report. And that is not the sort of thing which helps earn one the bronze plaque. Segui has publicly acknowledged using human growth hormone by prescription, and the Mitchell Report incriminates him as a steroids user.

Looking at his career stats, one must wonder two things -- how these PEDs were helping him, and why he's even on the ballot. Segui posted good OBPs and had some decent power, but he wasn't that much above league average, and as a first baseman, there had to be more expected of him that he didn't deliver. He also wasn't in the lineup enough -- only three seasons of 140 or more games played (peaking at 150), only eight of his 15 seasons with over 100 games. As a switch hitter, he wasn't subject to obvious platooning cutting into his playing time.

If one is conspiratorially minded, one might think Segui is on the ballot to show other, perhaps unidentified PED users what might happen to them if they get on the Hall ballot someday, because between an uninspiring career and admitted and alleged PED usage, I'll be impressed if Segui gets one vote. If the Hall wants to make an example of someone not named McGwire, here he is.

Chipmaker's vote: No -- and this has nothing to do with Segui's PED usage. Simply not a Hall-class career.

Prediction: Segui's candidacy gets clobbered with a resounding zero votes.


23. Lee Smith (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 7.
Peak return: 45.0% (2006).
2009 return: 44.5%

Career: 18 seasons, 1980-97 -- *Chicago Cubs 1980-87, Boston Red Sox 1988-90, St. Louis Cardinals 1990-93, New York Yankees 1993, Baltimore Orioles 1994, California Angels 1995-96, Cincinnati Reds 1996, Montréal Expos 1997.
Peak season: 1991 -- 6-3, 47 saves, 2.34, 67 K, 157 ERA+, 1.137 WHIP.
Other outstanding seasons: 1982, 1983, 1987, 1988, 1990, 1994.
Primary position: right-handed relief pitcher, primarily as a closer.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections, three Rolaids Relief Awards (two NL, one AL), led NL in saves three times and AL once. Held the career record for saves from 1993, when he passed Reardon, to 2006, when Hoffman caught up. Currently third in career saves.

I've been looking at Smith more closely than any other returning candidate, comparing him to HOF RPs Eckersley, Sutter, Gossage, Fingers -- and I've changed my mind. I've fence-sat before, conservatively deciding to be opposed to Smith for the Hall, but he stands up very well compared to the Hall relievers, so I've jumped over that fence. Elect Lee Arthur!

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: Gets 50%, and should have enough ballots remaining to make it.


24. Alan Trammell (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 8.
Peak return: 18.2% (2008).
2009 return: 17.4%

Career: 20 seasons, 1977-96 -- *Detroit Tigers all the way.
Peak season: 1987 -- 109 runs, 205 hits, 34 doubles, 28 HR, 105 RBI, 21 stolen bases (against 2 caught steals), .343/.402/.551, 155 OPS+, 137 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1983, 1984, 1988, 1990, 1993.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Six All-Star selections, 1984 World Series MVP, four AL Gold Gloves for Shortstop, three AL Silver Sluggers for Shortstop. Member of the 1984 World Series champion Tigers.

Baseball bonus points: Tram was manager of the Tigers for three seasons, 2003-05. His teams were not impressive, at least not in good ways. The 2003 team was a complete disaster, so bad that not all responsibility can be laid upon Trammell's head. But this doesn't help his Hall candidacy at all.

Trammell's career annoys me. Half of his seasons were really good, the other half were below average, and they're all mixed together, no significant clustering. I cannot support a half-great player, not this time. I'll still think about him, but the easy choice here is "no".

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: Another hum-drum below-20 percent.


25. Robin Ventura (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 16 seasons, 1989-2004 -- *Chicago White Sox 1989-98, New York Mets 1999-2001, New York Yankees 2002-03, Los Angeles Dodgers 2003-04.
Peak season: 1999 -- 32 HR, 120 RBI, .301/.379/.529, 88 runs, 177 hits, 38 doubles, 74 walks, 129 OPS+, 118 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1991, 1992, 1995, 1996.
Primary position: third base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Two All-Star selections. Six Gold Gloves (five AL, one NL) at 3B. Won the 1988 Golden Spikes Award as the outstanding amateur player in the nation.

Ventura was a very good player but at his best was never great -- not as a professional anyway. His collegiate career was the stuff of legend, including a 58-game hitting streak, but the Hall looks to the majors, the highest level of competition, for its honorees.

Three things do stand out about Ventura's career, worth reviewing.

1. He was very proficient at hitting grand slams, with a career total of eighteen, tied for fourth all-time. This included tying the major league record by hitting two in one game (White Sox 14 - @Rangers 5, 04-September-1995) and later hitting two in a doubleheader, one in each game (20-May-1999).

2. His most famous grand slam, however, is one he hit but never completed. In Game 5 of the 1999 NLCS, with his Mets trailing in the series 3-1 -- on the cusp of elimination -- and trailing the game, 3-2, in the bottom of the 15th, Ventura came up with the bases loaded and clobbered it, for an apparent game-winning slam. However, the Mets mobbed him in celebration after he rounded first base, and Ventura abandoned his attempt to circle the bases. Two Mets scored to win the game, 4-3, but Ventura was credited with a single. Too bad, as it would have been the first walk-off grand slam in major league postseason history.

3. In 1993, Ventura was plunked in the ribs by Nolan Ryan, who was in the home stretch of his career. Ventura, a 25-year-old stud, charged the mound. Ryan, a venerable 46, put the finishing touch on his take-no-shit reputation by snaring Ventura in a headlock and dogie-punching him in the head six times. It was over quickly, tempers cooled, Ventura was ejected and the game played on. It was an unusual event even for baseball, and the image of the ancient Ranger taking the young kid to school, literally the school of hard knocks, was indelible. What the heck was Ventura thinking?


Good player. Not Hall measure.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: Grabs 10%, stays on the ballot for a few years. I'm probably aiming high.


26. Todd Zeile (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 16 seasons, 1989-2004 -- *St. Louis Cardinals 1989-95, Chicago Cubs 1995, Philadelphia Phillies 1996, Baltimore Orioles 1996, Los Angeles Dodgers 1997-98, Florida Marlins 1998, Texas Rangers 1998-99, New York Mets 2000-01 & 2004, Colorado Rockies 2002, New York Yankees 2003, Montreal Expos 2003.
Peak season: 1997 -- 31 HR, 90 RBI, .268/.365/.459, 89 runs, 154 hits, 85 walks, 121 OPS+, 96 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1991, 1999, 2000 -- but don't look for too much in 'em.
Primary position: third base. Started out as a catcher. Played some first base along the way.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Played for eleven different major league franchises, one short of the record. Most career home runs by any player whose family name starts with "Z", surpassing Gus Zernial (237) in 2003.

Wow. Zeile was around for a long time, and didn't win anything -- no major awards, no minor awards, no leading the league in anything , not even an All-Star selection. This surprised me. He was a pretty good player, and such guys usually get one trip to the July celebration along the way. Zeile did not.

He was a good hitter in the postseason -- .292/.362/.460 in 29 games, 127 plate appearances. And he was durable, playing in 140+ games ten times, plus all of the 1994 season. But he never rose to greatness. The Hall is short on third basemen, but Zeile isn't going to be the next one added to the rolls.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: The voters didn't like 3B Matt Williams last year, and he had more homers. They're not going to give Zeile any more ballot love. Less than 3%, and relegated.


Summary. I support nine players for Hall election -- Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, Martinez, McGriff, McGwire, Murphy, Raines, and Smith.

If I could vote for only one, it would go to Blyleven.

I expect only Dawson will be elected this time. If any ballot rookie is elected, it will be Alomar.

Ballot results will be announced Wednesday, January 6, 2010.

The Hall's 2010 Writers Ballot -- The Candidates (part 2 of 3)

Continuing the review of the writers ballot candidates, #10-18.

The asterisk * by a team the candidate played for indicates which team I think will be on his plaque cap, should he be elected.


10. Eric Karros (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 14 seasons, 1991-2004 -- *Los Angeles Dodgers 1991-2002, Chicago Cubs 2003, Oakland Athletics 2004.
Peak season: 1995 -- 32 HR, 105 RBI, .298/.369/.535, 164 hits, 29 doubles, 145 OPS+, 107 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1998, 1999. There's not a lot here, fans.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 1992 NL Rookie Of The Year, one NL Silver Slugger for 1B.

Karros was the first of five consecutive Dodgers to win the NL ROY, followed by Mike Piazza, Raul Mondesi, Hideo Nomo, and Todd Hollandsworth. Winning a ROY is a very unreliable harbinger of future success -- for every Piazza or Jeff Bagwell, there's plenty of Marty Cordova or Pat Listach types. So, while ROY is a positive award to collect, sometimes the winner says more about the quality of the fresh talent in the league than the award says about the recipient.

Karros was a useful player, but he didn't hit enough -- good power, not nearly great, and wasn't much for getting on base, though he was better than, say, Dave Kingman was -- to be a star, certainly not at first base (maybe not even at second base). And he certainly wasn't a Hall-class player. Being named to the ballot is his career endpoint.

He did hit well in the postseason -- .300/.364/.560 in 15 games, 55 plate appearances, with four home runs.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: doesn't get the 5% needed to stay on the ballot. Probably won't get 2%.


11. Ray Lankford (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 14 seasons, 1990-2002 & 2004 -- *St. Louis Cardinals 1990-2001 & 2004, San Diego Padres 2001-02.
Peak season: 1998 -- 31 HR, 105 RBI, .293/.391/.540, 37 doubles, 26 stolen bases, 143 OPS+, 123 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 1997.
Primary position: center field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: One All-Star selection (one start), led NL in triples once.

Lankford was a good player, hit well enough for a center fielder, had some power, and could take a walk or swipe a base (though he got caught far too often in his younger days). But there's little in his career that stands up and proclaims greatness. Good-hitting center fielders aren't that hard to find; Lankford was not a rare class of player.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: Just scrapes past the 5% needed to stay on the ballot at least this once.


12. Barry Larkin (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 19 seasons, 1986-2004 -- *Cincinnati Reds the whole time.
Peak season: 1996 -- 33 HR, 89 RBI, .298/.410/.567, 117 runs, 32 doubles, 36 stolen bases, 154 OPS+, 124 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1989, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1997, 1998.
Primary position: shorstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Twelve All-Star selections (five starts), 1995 NL MVP, three NL Gold Gloves for shortstop (and probably should have won a few earlier, but Ozzie Smith had a hammerlock on it), nine NL Silver Sluggers for shortstop. Ranks in the Top Five in many Reds franchise hitting records, including second in hits and doubles (behind Pete Rose). Member of the 1990 World Series champion Reds.

It always look a little curious, how Larkin won the 1995 MVP with a good season, then had a much better one, and finished 12th in the 1996 voting, but these things happen.

Larkin was a brilliant shortstop, and filled a unique niche in history. The shortstops of the 1980s were Ozzie Smith, the defensive Wizard, and Cal Ripken, Jr., the slugging Iron Man. Larkin was the next great SS, and just as he was about to take the spotlight -- Ozzie retiring, Rip having taken the consecutive games streak record, the MVP in his pocket -- along came the Trinity of Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez, all young, all exciting, all at least Larkin's equal, and they stole the show.

So Larkin never got the overload of public acclaim he was due, which was too bad. Partly that was his fault, as it were -- he didn't do any one thing with consistent sparkle and flair, like Ozzie with the glove, but he did everything very well. The harshest flaw in Larkin's game was that he didn't have a curveball. This man belongs in the Hall, and I am fully in support of his candidacy.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: doesn't get in the door this time, but does collect a healthy 45%, and makes it by his fifth ballot. I hope I'm predicting low.


13. Edgar Martinez (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 18 seasons, 1987-2004 -- all with the *Seattle Mariners.
Peak season: 1995 -- 29 HR, 113 RBI, .356/.479/.628, 182 hits, 52 doubles, 121 runs, 185 OPS+, 161 RC, while playing the entire 145 game schedule.
Other outstanding seasons: 1990, 1991, 1992, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003.
Primary position: designated hitter; was a third baseman in his early seasons.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (four starts), five AL Silver Sluggers (one for 3B, four for DH), two AL batting championships, led the AL in OBP three times, runs scored once, doubles twice, RBI once, runs created once. MLB's award for the season's outstanding designated hitter is named in Martinez's honor, after he won it five times.

Edgar Martinez could hit. Really HIT. The Mariners didn't call him up until he was 24, and didn't keep him up until he was 27, so his career totals never reached some of the sparkly milestones which he surely would have passed. That doesn't make him a lesser hitter, because he was amazing. Every season, Gar was either the best hitter on the team, or right behind Griffey or Rodriguez -- yes, he more than held his own beside two men widely seen as inevitable future Hall Of Famers. In 1995, when Junior missed half the season, he kept the Mariners going, leading them to the franchise's first-ever postseason berth -- and it was Martinez who provided the signature moment against the Yankees in the ALDS, doubling in Griffey with the winning run in extra innings in Game 5. Yeah, Junior had the mile-wide smile at the bottom of the celebratory dogpile, but it was Martinez who brought him around.

In 1996, he was on a ferocious doubles pace -- 44 in 95 games -- when Piniella played him at third base, he collided with Marzano and got injured and missed a few weeks. And when he came back, he didn't have his power. I'm a hardliner on not giving credit for things not done, but I cannot help think about Martinez that season without the injury -- he projected to over 70 doubles, well past Webb's record, and if he had done it, his career would have one very shiny spangle to help boost his candidacy. And it's gonna be an uphill fight, because of The DH Thing.

I have no quibble with designated hitters, either the position as defined or the men who play it. It's been part of baseball for nearly 40 years; those who still think it somehow is wrong or is Not How The Game Should Be Played really need to get past their petty indignation. I take particular issue with anyone claiming that DHs play only half the game and therefore are unworthy of the Hall -- how do they approach AL starting pitchers, or any relief pitcher? Those are no different, from that point of view. I call hogwash. Martinez was a brilliant hitter, the Mariners decided that was his best destiny -- hey, better that than to let him play defense, especially if (a) there were better options and/or (b) he'd have been a liability with the glove. No, to me, he did the job that was asked of him, and he did so with greatness and beauty. It was a joy and a wonder to watch him bat.

Martinez could hit, he did hit a ton, and no one has ever done a better job of being a DH.
If the BBWAA is ever going to come to grips with the reality that is the designated hitter role, there is no better pioneer for opening the doors to the Hall as a DH than Edgar Martinez.

Chipmaker's vote: YES!

Prediction: 30%, as too many writers, including many who have never witnessed an AL game without the DH, hold to their unofficial pre-20th century precepts. I so hope I'm way wrong on this. The story of the 1990s Seattle Mariners' ascension to relevance is incomplete without Martinez in a starring role, and he's earned his plaque.


14. Don Mattingly (playing record| 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 9.
Peak return: 28.2% (2001).
2009 return: 11.9%

Career: 14 seasons, 1982-95 -- all with the *New York Yankees.
Peak season: 1986 -- 238 hits, 117 runs, 31 Hr, 113 RBI, 53 doubles, .352/.394/.573, 161 OPS+, 150 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1984, 1985, 1987.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections (one start), 1985 AL MVP, nine AL Gold Gloves at 1B, three AL Silver Sluggers at 1B, 1984 AL batting champion, 1986 AL slugging champion, led AL in hits twice, doubles three times, RBI once. Set the major league single season record for grand slams with six in 1987 (and never hit another in his entire career). Tied the ML record for consecutive games with a home run, with eight. Tied the ML record for most putouts in a game, with 22. Jersey #23 retired by the Yankees.

The thematic successor to Jim Rice, but without the climbing vote returns -- the greatness is there if one really wants to see it. Donnie Baseball had four great seasons, two other very good ones, and then he was pedestrian for the rest of his career.

Many Mattingly supporters will cite HOFer Kirby Puckett as a reason to promote Donnie. I understand why -- their career stats are similar. There are three significant reasons why the comparison is not valid, or at least isn't going to get Mattingly in:

1. Puckett was a center fielder, whereas Mattingly was a first baseman. CFs who could hit like Puck are rare across baseball history; 1B who could hit as well as, or better than, Mattingly (on a career basis, where this comparison always plays) are not so rare. Position does matter, a lot.

2. Puckett's value was evenly spread out over his entire career, whereas most of Mattingly's value was crammed into four seasons. I look to seasonal value before I look to career value, because great seasons help a player's team toward the postseason, which is the annual goal of the season. Puckett did more in more years than Mattingly did.

3. Puckett wasn't that good of a choice for the Hall anyway.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: Just another mid-teens return, futzing about until his 15 years run out.


15. Fred McGriff (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 19 seasons, 1986-2004 -- Toronto Blue Jays 1986-90, San Diego Padres 1991-93, *Atlanta Braves 1993-97, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 1998-2001 & 2004, Chicago Cubs 2001-02, Los Angeles Dodgers 2003.
Peak season: 1992 -- 35 HR, 104 RBI, 30 doubles, 96 walks, .286/.394/.556, 166 OPS+, 116 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1999, 2001.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Five All-Star selections (three starts), three Silver Sluggers (one AL, two NL) for 1B, led both leagues in HR once each. 1994 All-Star MVP. Carries the curious distinction of having the only baseball "Bermanism" -- silly, punnish nicknames bestowed by ESPN's Chris Berman that typically have little to do with the player -- that has entered the widespread lexicon, "Crime Dog". Member of the 1995 World Series champion Braves.

Fred McGriff finished his career with 493 home runs, agonizingly close to 500, a milestone which many people consider to be a golden ticket to the Hall if reached. This is not the case, but it's the sort of simplistic causality that plays well to the masses, and it's easy to remember.

I have little doubt that, had the players not struck in 1994-95, McGriff would have hit those seven more homers, and his candidacy would be a lot more clear-cut (to the good) than it otherwise is today. However, I don't feel the least bit bad or sad for McGriff, because he was one of the players and supported the strike, and given how that mess eventually played out, missing out on #500 is a small sacrifice. His career would look better with 500 homers, but not really be any better. I don't care that he didn't reach 500, and I think many of the BBWAA voters will similarly look past such petty surface distinctions.

Crime Dog was a damn good hitter, the sort of slugger who personifies the stereotypical, even archetypal, first baseman. Good glove, big bat, plays a lot of games, does a lot of damage at the plate, doesn't muck up on defense very often, reliable. What's not to like? McGriff did his job, did it very well for a long time, often rising to greatness, and was a key part of the storied mid-1990s Braves. And he was an excellent postseason player, too -- .303/.385/.532 in 50 games, 218 plate appearances, with 10 HR.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: Brings home 40% this first time, moves up quickly, gets elected before his seventh ballot. He's Hall-worthy, but it'll take the writers a while before enough recognize this.


16. Mark McGwire (playing record| 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 3.
Peak return: 23.6% (2008).
2009 return: 21.9%

Career: 16 seasons, 1986-2001 -- *Oakland Athletics 1986-97, St. Louis Cardinals 1997-2001.
Peak season: 1998 -- 70 HR, 147 RBI, 130 runs, 162 walks, .299/.470/.752, 216 OPS+, 193 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, and 2000 even though he played only 89 games.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 12 All-Star selections (six starts), 1987 AL ROY, one AL Gold Glove at 1B, three Silver Sluggers (one AL, two NL) at 1B, led his league in OBP twice, SLG four times, home runs four times, RBI once, walks twice. Rookie record 49 HR. Record 70 HR in 1998, since surpassed once. Member of the 1989 World Series champion Athletics. Member of the 500 Home Runs Club (583 career).

After three ballots, it is obvious that the majority of the voters are holding their embargo against McGwire. Nothing before now has changed -- or has it? A few weeks ago, the Cardinals had to acknowledge -- the news leaked -- that McGwire has been hired to be the batting coach in 2010.

This was a surprise, as Mac apparently was content with his isolated, golfing life in southern California. Cards manager Tony LaRussa has long been one of his supporters, and must have decided that it was time to begin The Rehabilitation Of Mark McGwire. The media will of course clamor to have him speak at last -- in one-sided hopes of getting some sort of confession of whatever it is they think he did -- and, back in the public eye, he'll have to say something, however vague or evasive, eventually. He could continue playing his shell game, or he could press the detonator on the players' omerta and move on. No idea what will happen next -- but if he approaches it right, he could win lots of brownie points with the writers, and maybe even some Hall votes.

My vote doesn't count, but he's had it before and still has it this time.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: no meaningful change this time, though at least one voter has said he's turned positive this year. Another low-20s percentage return. It'll be more interesting next year after he's been a coach for a season, see if the tide is turning.


17. Jack Morris (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 10.
Peak return: 44.0% (2009).
2009 return: 44.0%

Career: 18 seasons, 1977-94 -- *Detroit Tigers 1977-90, Minnesota Twins 1991, Toronto Blue Jays 1992-93, Cleveland Indians 1994.
Peak season: 1986 -- 21-8, 15 CG, 6 ShO, 223 K, 3.27, 267 IP, 127 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1979, 1981, 1987, 1991, 1992.
Primary position: right-handed starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Five All-Star selections (three starts), 1991 World Series MVP, led AL in wins twice, strikeouts once, shutouts once. Pitched a no-hitter in 1984. Member of three World Series champion teams, the 1984 Tigers, the 1991 Twins, and the 1992 Blue Jays. A good postseason pitcher, going 7-4, 3.80 in 13 games, 92.1 IP, with one legendary night.

The greatness is there for those who are convinced they see it. I see a big helping of good and very good performances, but no, I don't see the greatness.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: cracks 50% at last, but his runway is getting very short (four more ballots after this year), so it could get tight at the end.


18. Dale Murphy (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 11.
Peak return: 23.2% (2000).
2009 return: 11.5%

Career: 18 seasons, 1976-93 -- *Atlanta Braves 1976-90, Philadelphia Phillies 1990-92, Colorado Rockies 1993.
Peak season: 1983 -- 36 HR, 121 RBI, 131 runs, 30 stolen bases, 90 walks, .302/.393/.540, 149 OPS+, 131 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987.
Primary position: center field.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 1982 & 1983 NL MVPs, seven All-Star selections (five starts), five NL Gold Gloves for Outfield, four NL Silver Sluggers for Outfield, led NL in slugging twice, runs scored once, home runs twice, RBI twice. Jersey #3 retired by the Braves.

Great center fielders are a rare breed. Murf was a genuinely nice guy. Outside of his peak, he wasn't much to talk about, but his peak was excellent. I don't know why he doesn't get more ballot love. By now, however, it clearly isn't going to change, so I'm still behind his candidacy, but this makes me in a definite minority.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes.

Prediction: Another pokey 10-15% range return. sigh.


Part 3 soon.

The Hall's 2010 Writers Ballot -- The Candidates (part 1 of 3)

The first nine of the 26 candidates on this year's Hall Of Fame ballot.

1. Roberto Alomar (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 17 seasons, 1988-2004 -- San Diego Padres 1988-90, *Toronto Blue Jays 1991-95, Baltimore Orioles 1996-98, Cleveland Indians 1999-2001, New York Mets 2002-03, Chicago White Sox 2003 & '04, Arizona Diamondbacks 2004.
Peak season: 1999 -- 24 HR (career high), 120 RBI (career high), .323/.422/.533, 182 hits, 138 runs (led AL), 139 OPS+, 139 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 2001.
Primary position: second baseman.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 12 All-Star selections (nine starts), ten AL Gold Gloves for 2B, four AL Silver Sluggers for 2B, MVP Awards for the 1992 ALCS and the 1998 All-Star Game. Member of 1992 & 1993 World Series champion Blue Jays and five other postseason teams. Led AL in runs scored in 1999.

Alomar, scion of a baseball family (father Sandy Sr. and brother Sandy Jr. both played; Robbie and Jr. were teammates in San Diego, Cleveland, and Chicago), was a brilliant fielder at a tough position, and along with Craig Biggio (Hall eligible 2013), was the premier player at second base for a generation. And he did a lot of good work with his bat, as well. Roberto was an excellent postseason performer, putting up slashes of .313/.381/.448 in 58 games, and he demolished the Athletics in 1992, including a game-tying home run in the ninth inning of Game 4 off Dennis Eckersley, a game which Toronto won in extras to take a 3-1 lead in the ALCS. Sure, that's just one moment, but it's a memorable moment, and those only help. Not that Alomar's candidacy needs help -- his career is golden and definitely Hall-worthy.

However, with one impassioned but bad decision, he probably won't get in this first try. Late in the 1996 season -- Baltimore at Toronto, 27-September -- Alomar was called out on strikes in the top of the first inning. Alomar argued the called strike three -- perfectly legitimate -- but the argument escalated, home plate umpire John Hirschbeck ejected Alomar, and then Alomar spit on Hirschbeck. Oops; you just don't do that sort of thing. Alomar served a short suspension the next season, he and Hirschbeck made amends, and apparently both of them consider it a long-buried event. But it's the sort of thing that will follow Alomar until his obituary is printed, and I suspect the writers, enough of them anyway, will use The Spitting Incident as reason enough to impose a one-year embargo on Alomar's Hall candidacy. He'll get in, but not this year. (shrug) Whaddya gonna do?

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: around 50%, and elected in 2011.


2. Kevin Appier (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 16 seasons, 1989-2004 -- *Kansas City Royals 1989-99 & 2003-04, Oakland Athletics 1999-2000, New York Mets 2001, Anaheim Angels 2002-03.
Peak season: 1993 -- 18-8, 2.56 (led AL), 5 complete games, 1 ShO, 238.2 IP, 186 K, 179 ERA+, 1.106 WHIP.
Other outstanding seasons: 1990, 1992, 1996, 1997.
Primary position: right-handed starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: One All-Star selection, led AL in ERA in 1993, member of the 2002 World Series champion Angels.

Appier was a workhorse, never pitching fewer than 185 innings (and usually well more) in a full season from 1990-2002 except once (1998) when he was injured. He delivered a lot of quality from the mound, even if most of it was in Kansas City, from where he got little attention from fans or the media. He wasn't the same after the injury, even though he finally got some postseason action -- Oakland in 2000 and the champion Angels in 2002, though he got knocked around pretty badly that October -- and the end came quickly. Appier put up a distinguished career, but not a great one.

Appier got votes for the Cy Young Award only once, in 1993, finishing third behind winner Jack McDowell and Randy Johnson. Appier received one first-place vote, which was cast by Phil Rogers, then with the Dallas Morning News, if I recall correctly. Appier was the internet/stathead choice that year -- McDowell certainly wasn't -- and I still slightly admire Rogers for casting that vote for Kevin, even if the stuff he writes today doesn't indicate that his thinking still runs along such lines.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: I hope he skirts past relegation -- geez, Harold Baines keeps hanging on -- but I think Appier will get some single-digit vote total and be done.


3. Harold Baines (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 3.
Peak return: 5.9% (2009).
2009 return: 5.9% (avoided relegation by six votes, a personal high).

Career: 22 seasons, 1980-2001 -- *Chicago White Sox 1980-89, '96-97, & 2000-01, Texas Rangers 1989-90, Oakland Athletics 1990-92, Baltimore Orioles 1993-95 & '97-2000, Cleveland Indians 1999.
Peak season: 1984 -- 29 HR (career high), 94 RBI, .304/.361/.541, 142 OPS+, 109 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1989, 1991, 1996.
Primary position: right field for seven seasons, then designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Six All-Star selections (one start), one Silver Slugger, led the AL in slugging average in 1984. Good postseason hitter (.324/.378/.510 in 31 G, 102 AB). Jersey #3 retired by the White Sox. His 1628 RBI currently grant Baines the title of "Most RBI Not In The Hall", at least until Rafael Palmeiro gets on the ballot and takes permanent ownership.

Nothing new to see here. Good hitter, not great. If a primary designated hitter is ever going to be elected, Edgar Martinez will be the first.

Chipmaker's vote: No, again.

Prediction: heck, let's see him hit that 5-6% range for the fourth time.


4. Bert Blyleven (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 12.
Peak return: 62.7% (2009).
2009 return: 62.7% (67 votes short of election).

Career: 22 seasons, 1970-90 & 1992 -- *Minnesota Twins 1970-76 & '85-88, Texas Rangers 1976-77, Pittsburgh Pirates 1978-80, Cleveland Indians 1981-85, California Angels 1989-90 & '92.
Peak season: 1973 -- 20-17, 2.52, 258 K, 158 ERA+.
Other outstanding seasons: 1974, 1977, 1984, 1989.
Primary position: right-handed starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Two All-Star selections, led AL in strikeouts once and shutouts three times. Fifth highest career strikeout total, third highest when he retired. 287 career wins (which, alas, is just short of 300). Member of two World Series champion teams, the 1979 Pirates and the 1987 Twins. An excellent postseason pitcher -- 5-1, 2.47 in 8 games, 6 starts, 47.1 IP, 36 K, 8 BB.

Extremely silly baseball bonus points: A longtime announcer for the Twins, Blyleven has a habit of circling fans on the telestrator, which has led to the enduring habit of Twins fans holding up "Circle Me, Bert" signs in hopes of being among the chosen. Yes, this is ridiculous, but it's the sort of thing baseball embraces. Shoot, fans still love dot races.

What? What does it take? What does it take to get this man's brilliant career highlighted enough to win election? He's got three ballots left. Please, BBWAA voters, let's not have to revisit Blyleven again for the 2011 ballot. Vote him in. Happy ending.

Chipmaker's vote: YES!

Prediction: jumps to 69%, prolonging the infuriation yet another year or two.


5. Ellis Burks (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 18 seasons, 1987-2004 -- *Boston Red Sox 1987-92 & 2004, Chicago White Sox 1993, Colorado Rockies 1994-98, San Francisco Giants 1998-2000, Cleveland Indians 2001-03.
Peak season: 1996 -- 40 HR, 128 RBI, .344/.408/.639, 211 hits, 142 runs (led NL), 45 doubles, 32 stolen bases, 149 OPS+, 158 RC. Sure, Coors Field was his home park, but this was still an excellent season.
Other outstanding seasons: 1988, 1994, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002.
Primary position: center field. Moved to right field late, and finally, designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Two All-Star selections, one AL Gold Glove for outfield, two Silver Slugger (one AL, one NL) for outfield, led NL in runs scored and slugging average in 1996.

The 1987 Red Sox had an amazing harvest off the farm -- Burks, Mike Greenwell, John Marzano, Todd Benzinger, and Sam Horn. The five of them got 1519 at-bats, over 27% of the team's season total. They all went on to have pretty good careers, Burks the best of the bunch. Realize that the 1987 Sox were not a good team, which was all the more disappointing coming off the brilliant 1986 almost-won-it-all season. The rookies were one of the few bright spots.

So I like Ellis Burks. He wasn't the next Willie Mays, he wasn't even the next Eric Davis, but he was an exciting player who had speed and hit with some power. And he kept that going well after he left Boston. But it wasn't enough to merit the Hall. In his five seasons in the hitting paradise that is Coors Field, he excelled in two and was just a bit above league average in the other three. He never played over 150 games after '96, even when DHing. Little injuries took away some of his potential, and this has happened to greater players. Really good career; not great.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: deserves better than relegation, but probably won't be back on the next ballot.


6. Andre Dawson (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 8.
Peak return: 67.0% (2009).
2008 return: 67.0% (44 votes short of election).

Career: 21 seasons, 1976-96 -- *Montréal Expos 1976-86, Chicago Cubs 1987-92, Boston Red Sox 1993-94, Florida Marlins 1995-96.
Peak season: 1981 -- 24 HR, 64 RBI, .302/.365/.553 in 103 games (the Expos played 108 games in the strike season), 157 OPS+, 83 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1983, 1987, 1988, 1990.
Primary position: center field early, right field later.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 1987 NL MVP, 1977 NL ROY, eight All-Star selections (seven starts, five at CF and two at RF), eight NL Gold Gloves for outfield, four NL Silver Sluggers for outfield, led NL in hits in 1983, home runs and RBI in 1987. Career 438 homers, 1591 RBI, 2774 hits. Jersey #10 retired by the Expos (which the successor Washington Nationals do not maintain).

No change here, so I'll use my standard line: Dawson would look good on a plaque, but the Hall is not suffering for his absence.

But his election is inevitable. His returns have been creeping up, now just a few points short, and he's got enough runway left (six more ballots after this one) that it's just a matter of time. We won't have any final ballot, Jim Rice-style melodrama with Dawson. Congratulations if (when) he makes it, no tears if he doesn't.

Chipmaker's vote: No. I'm not alone, but I am in the minority.

Prediction: elected with 76%.


7. Andres Galarraga (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 19 seasons, 1985-98 & 2000-04 -- Montreal Expos 1985-91 & 2002, St. Louis Cardinals 1992, *Colorado Rockies 1993-97, Atlanta Braves 1998 & 2000, Texas Rangers 2001, San Francisco Giants 2001 & 2003, Anaheim Angels 2004.
Peak season: 1998 -- 44 HR, 121 RBI, .305/.397/.595, 63 walks (career high), 157 OPS+, 134 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1988, 1993, 1996, 1997. His 2000 was pretty good too, especially the first half, as he came back from cancer therapy.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Five All-Star selections (one start), two NL Gold Gloves for 1B, two NL Silver Sluggers for 1B, 1993 NL batting champion, led NL in hits and doubles in 1989, HR in 1996, RBI in 1996 & '97. Known as the "Big Cat". Two-time winner of The Sporting News' Comeback Player Of The Year Award (1993 & 2000).

Galarraga was never a great player, but he put up some nearly-great seasons, even allowing that his home park was Coors Field for the best of them. Injuries and illnesses kept him off the field a good bit, particularly after age 29, though he did have three seasons of 150+ games in his late 30s. His physical woes bottomed out when he was diagnosed with Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, and missed the entire 1999 season. His comeback the following year was inspiring and he still had some playing left in him, but missing a season doesn't make him a better player, just a better story. First basemen have to hit a ton, and Galarraga was always a few hundred pounds short.

The Sporting News discontinued its Comeback Player Award after the 2006 season, and Galarraga was one of only three players to win it twice, along with Bret Saberhagen and Rick Sutcliffe. While any positive honor is worth noting, a Comeback Player Award has always confounded me a bit. It's a backhanded way of saying that, last year, you were either injured a lot, or sucked, and glad to see that's over with. Winning it twice doesn't make it seem any better, since the recipient must have had two disastrous seasons.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: one and done, below 5%, relegated.


8. Pat Hentgen (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 14 seasons, 1991-2004 -- *Toronto Blue Jays 1991-99 & 2004, St. Louis Cardinals 2000, Baltimore Orioles 2001-03.
Peak season: 1996 -- 20-10, 3.22, 10 complete games, 3 ShO, 265.2 IP, 177 K, 155 ERA+, 1.250 WHIP.
Other outstanding seasons: 1994, 1997.
Primary position: right-handed starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Three All-Star selections, 1996 AL Cy Young Award, led AL in innings pitched, complete games, and shutouts in 1996 & 1997. Member of the 1992 and 1993 World Series champion Blue Jays (though he did not pitch in the '92 postseason).

Hentgen had one brilliant season and a few other strong ones, but was otherwise around league average, though he was typically good for 175 innings or more. He was injured soon after moving to Baltimore, lost most of two seasons, and when he came back he wasn't the same and didn't have much left. A very good pitcher for a stretch, but not Hall measure.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: less than 1% of the vote, relegated.


9. Mike Jackson (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 17 seasons, 1986-99, 2001-02, 2004 -- Philadelphia Phillies 1986-87, *Seattle Mariners 1988-91 & '96, San Francisco Giants 1992-94, Cincinnati Reds 1995, Cleveland Indians 1997-99, Houston Astros 2001, Minnesota Twins 2002, Chicago White Sox 2004.
Peak season: 1998 -- 1-1, 1.55, 40 saves, 64.0 IP, 55 K, 307 ERA+ (!), 0.875 WHIP (!).
Other outstanding seasons: 1988, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 2002.
Primary position: right-handed middle relief pitcher, occasional closer.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Led NL in games pitched in 1993. Member of six postseason teams, including the 1997 AL champion Indians.

Other than his Cleveland years and part of one season in Seattle, when he was a closer (and a darn good one), Jackson was a middle reliever. As such, he has no counting stat to show how good he was at it -- other stats, sure, but Hall voters generally don't dig deep before making their decisions, and Holds aren't official (Baseball Reference credits Jackson with 179, with no indication where that ranks him). Jackson pitched in 1005 games, ranking him 12th all-time and 8th when he retired, so that speaks well of him.

I cannot support Jackson's Hall candidacy, even though I sort of want to. I talked about this last year when Jesse Orosco was on the ballot, one of the best middle relief pitchers the game has ever seen. I had no delusions that Orosco should have been elected, but there hasn't yet been an ongoing, detailed dialogue on what makes, or might make, a middle reliever considered Hall class, and Orosco offered the perfect starting point. If he'd gotten just the 5% necessary to stay on the ballot, there was a chance that debate would have, haltingly, begun. Didn't happen -- he got one vote, and was gone. Jackson was about the same quality of pitcher as Orosco, over a shorter career, and generally less impressive -- Orosco had more of a legendary/iconic vibe to him, probably due to the longevity and games pitched record. Qualitatively, they're close. I'm still not sure what might make a middle reliever worthy of the Hall, but if it wasn't Orosco last year (in a decision received from on high, rather than reached through discussion, dammit), then it's not going to be Jackson this year, either.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: cast aside with fewer than five votes. Though, just maybe, and curiously by dint of his strong seasons as a closer, Jackson might get just enough love to stay on the ballot, and get that middle reliever discussion brewing. I doubt it, but hold out thin hope anyway.


Part 2 soon.