Guinea Pig Crackerjack

Back in the late summer, after the kids and I got home from Connecticut (great trip), we let Amalie pick out two guinea pigs. I had imposed only two criteria -- one, only females, and two, for preference they had to be phweakers, guineas that make a lot of noise.

She decided on two females, both smooth coated, at a local store and named them Acorn and Weasel II, in tribute to a guinea pig my family had had ages ago. We never meant to have a guinea pig, but one of us kids -- it wasn't me -- volunteered to host the class guinea over a summer, and when school returned in the fall, no teacher wanted it. So we kept the pig, and that was Weasel, a strong phweaker.

Alas, Weasel II stayed small -- the vet called it "failure to thrive" -- and got sick and passed on. After a time to make sure Acorn was not also infected, Amalie picked out a new female pig, a very puffy one with kinky fur. This was Cottonball.

We also had told Carson that he could select his own guinea pig in time. I had the kids out shopping one day in mid-November, and decided to stop in at the local PetsMart just to check out the guinea pigs. (The PetsMart stores, at least locally, have a policy of keeping one gender only of guinea pigs. This one had females.) Most of the pigs, like usual, were huddled in little "pigloos", but one mostly white one was munching kibble, either oblivious to the giant humans watching her, or utterly cool and unconcerned about being on display. Carson took a liking to her, we consulted with Mommy by phone (who approved whole-heartedly), and we obtained the guinea pig. Before getting home, a rather short trip actually, Carson had decided that the new pig would be named Vanilla. (I suggested this based on her white fur, but she also has some light tan patches that made me also suggest Maple Walnut. The kids didn't like that much.)

So, three guinea pigs, all female, living in a large, roomy hutch that Val maintains. Cottonball was a bit pushy for a few days, but they all settled into peaceful coexistence quickly.

Vanilla began getting wider, particularly in her belly. Hmm. This wasn't simple growth, although she was getting bigger (as is proper for a guinea her young age). This was a bulge. Granted it could have been a highly specific tumor, but all signs pointed to her being pregnant. Amalie and Val both claimed to have witnessed kicking action on her sides. I wasn't completely certain, but there was no other probable reason for her size increasing.

Many years ago, I had seen a pregnant guinea pig (not Weasel) which was huge, its belly so extended it looked like it had swallowed another full-sized pig sideways. That memory clearly colored my perceptions. Reading up on guinea pig gestation, they are pregnant for about two months. Vanilla must have gotten started before we bought her, as there had been no chance since, so I just guessed she began in early November and, since she wasn't very big yet, we wouldn't have to think about baby guinea pigs until January.

Lousy guess. Not about Vanilla's pregnancy, but about the timing.

I dropped off the kids at school on Wednesday, December 15. When I got home, I went to give the guineas their morning veggies -- romaine lettuce, some sweet pepper slices. I put the bowl on the upper floor like usual (it's more easily accessible) and lay down to watch the guineas until they figured out where the snack was. Vanilla popped out of their main box, scurried about for a bit, then ran up the ramp. Cottonball soon followed. By now Acorn was also out of the box, but wasn't really trying to find the lettuce, and seemed to be stubbornly staying right by the box.

This was a bit puzzling; Acorn is our senior guinea, and certainly knows that the morning veggies are often upstairs. I crouched down to take a closer look, perhaps something was troubling her --

-- and a small guinea pig face briefly popped into view through the box doorway.

Whoa!

Acorn was still in full view. I looked at the upper level -- yep, there was Vanilla and Cottonball. All three guinea pigs were accounted for, but there was a fourth one! I tried to take a closer look at Vanilla, but while eating she was scrunched into the short, fat shape guinea pigs can make themselves, so I really couldn't tell anything about her belly. Not that I needed to, but visual confirmation always helps.

I opened the downstairs door and carefully reached into the box and determined that there were at least two babies, which were already scurrying easily.

Well, this was a surprise -- the arrival timing, anyway. I immediately realized that the babies could fit through the cage mesh -- their hutch is made of stackable shelves with large openings. And, sure enough, while I was trying to catch the babies minutes later, one of them did pop out through the bars, but was contained by the coroplast base and scrambled right back in. That helped, but I decided the retaining wall needed to be higher, which is why I was trying to capture them. Eventually I did get both -- there were only two -- and put them in a box with a towel, which they scurried deeply into.

Some spare coroplast, some boards, and some cardboard scraps soon provided a higher, more secure retaining wall so the babies couldn't escape. I returned the baby guineas to the hutch -- witlessly neglecting to take a few pictures of them. Consulting with the vet, I was told that leaving them alone for the first few days is the best approach, so we did that, and they have been very elusive when trying to photograph them since, preferring to stay in the box or otherwise out of sight.

Until last night, when Val undertook the weekly cage cleaning, and they had to be captured and temporarily relocated. We have a large, open "country estate" for this purpose, and when we managed to get all five guinea pigs transferred, I was able to get a decent pic of the babies.

Vanilla and her pups.

Cottonball is a bit cool, but not aggressive, toward the babies. Acorn is almost protective. So the entire bunch is getting along well, which is all to the good.

I had told Val earlier in the day, but asked her not to tell the kids when she picked them up. When they got home, I sat them down and asked, do you remember how we thought Vanilla might be pregnant? Yes, they replied. Well, I said, she's not pregnant any more.

The babies are only five days old, but have wasted no time. They explore (neither has gone up the ramp yet, that we know of), eat alfalfa and moistened guinea pellets and lettuce, are basically guinea pigs, just smaller. We haven't named them, and don't have any real idea what we'll do with them, although Val and I have been clear that if either or both are males they are not staying in the main cage. Vanilla turned out to be our crackerjack guinea pig, with the surprise inside -- but we're not willing to go through this again. Once is enough.

So, two baby guinea pigs. They're cute, they're fun to watch, they're amusing and delightful -- and yet, we are undecided if we should call them "guinea piglets" or "mini guineas".

The Hall's 2011 BBWAA ballot -- the candidates

The Hall announced the 2011 BBWAA ballot, 33 total candidates, of which 14 are holdovers from last year and 19 are ballot rookies.

The candidates (ballot years remaining including this one; "rookie" indicates the full 15 years):

Roberto Alomar (14)
Carlos Baerga (rookie)
Jeff Bagwell (rookie)
Harold Baines (11)
Bert Blyleven (2)
Bret Boone (rookie)
Kevin Brown (rookie)
John Franco (rookie)
Juan Gonzalez (rookie)
Marquis Grissom (rookie)
Lenny Harris (rookie)
Bobby Higginson (rookie)
Charles Johnson (rookie)
Barry Larkin (14)
Al Leiter (rookie)
Edgar Martinez (14)
Tino Martinez (rookie)
Don Mattingly (5)
Fred McGriff (14)
Mark McGwire (11)
Raul Mondesi (rookie)
Jack Morris (4)
Dale Murphy (3)
John Olerud (rookie)
Rafael Palmeiro (rookie)
Dave Parker (1 -- yep, his final BBWAA ballot)
Tim Raines (12)
Kirk Rueter (rookie)
Benito Santiago (rookie)
Lee Smith (7)
BJ Surhoff (rookie)
Alan Trammell (6)
Larry Walker (rookie)

I'll start running through their qualifications over the next week.

The Hall and the BBWAA will announce the results on Wednesday, January 5, 2011.

The Hall's 2011 Veterans Committee Expansion Era ballot -- voting results

The Veterans Committee has elected retired General Manager Pat Gillick to the Hall's rolls.

The returns (75%, 12 votes of 16, needed for election):

...candidate......................... votes.. %

--- ELECTED ---
1. Pat Gillick (executive)........... 13 .. 81.3%
--- not elected ---
2. Marvin Miller (executive)......... 11 .. 68.8%
3. Dave Concepcion (player)........... 8 .. 50.0%
4t. Ted Simmons (player)............. <8 .. ≤43.8%
4t. Vida Blue (player)............... <8 .. ≤43.8%
4t. Steve Garvey (player)............ <8 .. ≤43.8%
4t. Ron Guidry (player).............. <8 .. ≤43.8%
4t. Tommy John (player).............. <8 .. ≤43.8%
4t. Billy Martin (manager)........... <8 .. ≤43.8%
4t. Al Oliver (player)............... <8 .. ≤43.8%
4t. Rusty Staub (player)............. <8 .. ≤43.8%
4t. George Steinbrenner (executive).. <8 .. ≤43.8%

Congratulations to Gillick.

Miller -- well, I'm disappointed, but this man's candidacy has been so mishandled, maltreated, and abused for so long that I no longer can summon genuine outrage. Still, falling short by one vote, I have to wonder who the fifth "no" vote was. I am confident that all four of the electors from the executive ranks opposed Miller, and that all seven players (plus Herzog, who as a former player enjoys some benefits from Miller's efforts) were in favor, so the writers had to be the swing vote, and one of them withheld his support. (In a rare move, the Hall has approved elector Tom Verducci, writer for Sports Illustrated, disclosing his vote on Miller in order to clear up some vicious rumor -- he was in favor. Good choice, Verducci.) Let's keep the torch aloft for Miller, one of the seminal figures in baseball history.

The Hall has expanded the "less than" voting results, which used to top out at 25% but now reaches the 50% mark. Too bad, and I really don't see the point of this secrecy, particularly increasing it. I did find it curious that the Hall named the "less than 50%" candidates in the order given above, with Simmons, clearly the best candidate among the players, listed first, the only one out of alphabetical order. Perhaps he was the highest finisher in this bloc? Of those down here, I supported only Simmons and Steinbrenner, and The Boss with trepidation, so it doesn't upset me that he missed. I think he'll get the plaque eventually, especially if the Hall continually juggles the membership of the voting committee or, in what has been a real habit in recent years, reformatting the committee method completely.

Congrats again to Gillick. Now on to the BBWAA ballot.

The Hall's 2011 Veterans Committee Expansion Era ballot -- part 2, the manager and executive candidates

On to the rest of the 2011 Veterans Committee Expansion Era ballot candidates, one manager and three executives, bringing the total field to twelve.


9. Billy Martin, manager (managing career | playing career | reviewed on 2007 VC, 2008 VC, and 2010 VC ballots)

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA voting: as a player candidate, 1 ballot, finishing with 0.3%.
VC voting: 2003 27.8%, 2007 14.8%, 2008 ≤12.5%, 2010 ≤12.5%.

Managerial career
Seasons: 16 (15 full time/majority, 1 partial) -- Minnesota Twins 1969, Detroit Tigers 1971-73, Texas Rangers 1973-75, *New York Yankees 1975-78, '79, '83, '85, '88, Oakland Athletics 1980-82.
Career W-L record: 1253-1013 (.553).
Best season: 1977 Yankees, 100-62 (.617), first place by +2.5 games, AL East champion, AL pennant, World Series championship.
Worst season: 1982 Athletics, 68-94 (.420), 5th place (of 7) by -25 games.
Finishes: first place five (and one half) times (1969, 1972, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1981), second place four (and one half) times, third place three times, 4th - once, 5th - once.
Postseason appearances: five (1969, 1972, 1976, 1977, 1981), and managed the 1978 Yankees about 60% into the season.
Postseason W-L record: 15-19 (.441).
Postseason series record: 4-4.
Championships: one, 1977 New York Yankees. Managed the 1978 Yankees for more than the first half of the season but was not with the team when they hoisted the trophy.

Great players managed
Hall Of Famers: Rod Carew, Goose Gossage, Rickey Henderson, Catfish Hunter, Reggie Jackson, Ferguson Jenkins, Al Kaline, Harmon Killebrew, Phil Niekro, Gaylord Perry, Dave Winfield.
Award winners: 1969 AL MVP Killebrew, 1974 AL MVP Jeff Burroughs, 1974 AL ROY Mike Hargrove, 1976 AL MVP Thurman Munson, 1977 AL CYA Sparky Lyle, 1978 AL CYA Ron Guidry, 1985 AL MVP Don Mattingly.

Honors: The Yankees have retired Martin's #1 jersey.

Baseball bonus points: Martin was a player for 11 seasons (1950-53, '55-61) for the New York Yankees, Kansas City Athletics, Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Braves, and Minnesota Twins. A member of four Yankees championship teams, MVP of the 1953 World Series. One All-Star selection.

Martin's hard-nosed, confrontational, fiery style in the dugout kicked enough player butt to get teams to win (and win awards -- that's seven listed up there, quite a lot), but only in the short term. He quickly burned out everyone with his no-holds-barred intensity, and wore out his welcomes. Martin's single longest tenure was with the 1975-78 Yankees -- a partial season, two full seasons (with two World Series appearances and one championship), then another partial season. Granted, working for George Steinbrenner can't have been easy. Martin brought no endurance with him; he was purely a short-term fixer, and even that stopped working after he left the Athletics.

Martin managed five different teams and brought four of them to the postseason, but only the Yankees more than once. While an interesting character, and not always for good reasons, his baseball career does not merit the Hall.

That Martin keeps getting back into consideration despite discouraging, even poor, voting returns indicates that he has one or two implacable advocates involved in the nomination process, and further underscores that the Hall really should implement some temporary relegation mechanism into the Veterans Committee procedures. Martin is just clogging the pipes, and needs to be set aside for one or two cycles of eligibility before he comes up again. Of course, it'd help if the Hall would stabilize the VC's methodology instead of changing it every few years, but clearly it hasn't yet settled on an approach with which it is happy. Let's hope that "Hall satisfied with VC" is not congruent with "Martin got elected!" because otherwise we'll keep dancing this annoying waltz until they call the minter to engrave one with Billy on it, and that, I am convinced, is not the best outcome.

Chipmaker's vote: No.


10. Pat Gillick, executive (Wiki bio | career)

Previous Hall consideration -- none. Complete rookie.

Baseball career
Assistant farm director/scout/scouting director, Houston Colt .45's/Astros, 1963-74.
Scouting director, New York Yankees, 1975-76.
General Manager, Toronto Blue Jays, 1977-94.
General Manager, Baltimore Orioles, 1995-98.
General Manager, Seattle Mariners, 2000-03.
General Manager, Philadelphia Phillies, 2006-08.

Accomplishments
Championships: 1992-93 Blue Jays, 2008 Phillies.
Other postseason appearances: 1985, '89, '91 Blue Jays; 1996-97 Orioles; 2000-01 Mariners; 2007 Phillies.
Other: the 2001 Mariners won a record-tying 116 games. Signed Carlos Delgado and Felix Hernandez as undrafted free agents. Plenty of quality draft picks and trades, including the landmark McGriff/Fernandez-for-Carter/Alomar deal that changed two franchises overnight.

Gillick has been around forever (he's now retired) and, as can be seen from the results of his team seasons, tends to know what he's doing when building rosters and teams. His tenure in Toronto is the weightiest part of his resume, and he built it from a typical expansion also-ran mess into a contender, and then into a champion. These things take a while, but Gillick stayed his course and reaped the rewards with back-to-back titles.

Gillick's record of success speaks loudly and puts him in rarified company. The Hall has rarely inducted an off-field candidate so soon after his career, and while Gillick is not young, if he does get in he'll actually have time to enjoy the status and the honor. I think he has done more than enough to warrant the bronze plaque. He stands well against other general managers across history.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!


11. Marvin Miller, executive (Wiki bio | reviewed on 2007 VC, 2008 VC, and 2010 VC ballots)

Previous Hall consideration
VC voting: 2003 44.3%, 2007 63.0%, 2008 25.0%, 2010 58.3%.

Claims to fame: executive director of the Major League Baseball Players Association from 1966 to 1983. Successfully negotiated increasingly more beneficial Collective Bargaining Agreements with MLB. Planned for and accomplished overturn of the reserve clause, granting the players free agency rights.

I have written much in support of Miller's candidacy -- click those previous ballot reviews above and scroll down -- and my position is unchanged. Marvin Miller is the individual most worthy of the honor the Hall confers who is not yet included. Miller organized the players into speaking in unity, got them to think and act like a collective, and one made of difficult-to-replace talent deserving of higher compensation, negotiated for arbitration rights, and leveraged that into winning the landmark Seitz decision that brought about free agency. Miller improved the working conditions of his constituent employers and brought baseball's labor standards into the 20th century.

Marvin Miller effected profound and lasting change to baseball, and made baseball better -- and that is exactly the type of contribution, of impact, the Hall is best suited to recognize and must recognize.

To the hopes of those of us who support Miller's candidacy, the committee before which he will stand has a promising composition. Unlike previous editions of the VC, which were heavily weighted with management-side voters who would consider Miller a respected adversary in the best of times, this year's committee membership is filled with players, those who most directly benefited from Miller's efforts. Election to the Hall will require at least 12 of 16 votes. Seven of the electors are former players, and the one field manager, Herzog, is a former player who also enjoys some fruit from Miller's tenure at the players' union. Another four electors are writers, whom, we can but hope, have a healthy perspective on Miller's legacy and see clear to supporting him. The last four electors are team executives and owners, and it would not surprise me if to a man they do not support Miller. So it's still a long and difficult climb for Miller's candidacy, but at least there's a sporting chance this year, with an electorate that is not automatically stacked against him.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! ...wait, to clarify, make that YES!


12. George Steinbrenner, executive (Wiki bio | Bullpen bio)

Previous Hall consideration -- none. Complete rookie.

Claims to fame: principal owner of the New York Yankees, from purchase in 1973 through his death in 2010. Kept an active hand involved with team operations for most of that time. One of the first owners to engage free agents, signing Catfish Hunter in 1974 and Reggie Jackson in 1976. Oversaw Yankees teams to 19 postseason appearances, eleven American League pennants, and seven World Series championships (1977, '78, '96, '98, '99, 2000, '09).

George Steinbrenner was large -- somewhat physically, but mostly in terms of personality and behavior. He was the star of the show, wherever he was, and he wanted everyone to know it. He was loud, he was critical (sometimes harshly), and he answered to practically no one. The commissioner's office suspended him twice, and both times he came back ready for more. He demanded excellence and victory, and got plenty of both.

He wasn't really good at understanding baseball, however. Trades and signings were made under his direction that didn't help the team, leading to the long doldrums of the 1980s and early '90s. When Steinbrenner was reinstated after his second suspension, he tended to stay out of the way of the baseball people, and they built him not merely a winner, but a dynasty, an exceedingly rare thing in modern baseball. Steinbrenner turned his eye to making the Yankees into even more of a cash machine than it had been, founding his own regional sports network and brokering a deal for a new Yankee Stadium. As a result, the Yankees have income and wealth like no other team in baseball and few others in professional sports.

And Steinbrenner was never afraid to spend it generously. He never liked handing out the highest single contract, but had no issues with having the largest total payroll, and often did have it. More than anyone else, The Boss pushed baseball revenue and player salaries ever higher, on a team basis. As noted, he was large.

But does the Steinbrenner package merit the glory of the Hall? He's tough to assess. As an owner, he's a better candidate than most of the other owners already inducted. Most fans either love him -- these are usually Yankees fans -- or hate him (a group which also includes Yankees fans), so response to Steinbrenner is quite bipolar. He did a lot, and made even more noise, but he always had a clear goal to his erratic tactics -- win. And not nearly always, but often, it worked. It's hard to argue with the results -- seven Commissioner's Trophies, a new ballpark, money by the boatload. Steinbrenner delivered. Granted he mostly delivered things into his own pocket.

I don't think there is a great need for the Hall to honor owners anyway, but it is an established category for candidates and honorees, and Steinbrenner stands tall among them, if not actually pushing his way to the front.

I have no idea how the VC will vote on his candidacy, but he cut such a huge figure for so long, and captured titles, that I suspect he will get in eventually, even if he doesn't this time. That his recent death might garner him some bonus sympathy value may be enough to do it.

I'm not all that comfortable supporting Steinbrenner's candidacy, but I'd feel less comfortable, even if more secure, were I to deny it. So, with bewilderment and trepidation -- common afflictions when confronted with Steinbrenner -- I support The Boss for the Hall of Fame. The Red Sox fan inside me isn't cheering, but he's not mad about this, either; just sort of nodding grudging assent. Yeah, okay.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! I think. Feels more right than a No would.


Non-player candidates I support for the Hall: Gillick, Miller, Steinbrenner.

Combined with Simmons, that's four of 12 candidates I support. Let's see what the real Veterans Committee does with this new Expansion Era ballot.

The Hall's 2011 Veterans Committee Expansion Era ballot -- part 1, the player candidates

With the Hall of Fame's 2011 Veterans Committee convening to vote this weekend in concert with baseball's Winter Meetings, let's review the twelve candidates on this year's ballot, beginning with the player candidates in this post, and the non-players later tonight.

This year's ballot covers candidates who had the bulk of their playing career in the 1973-89 window, which the Hall describes (confusingly, and without explanation) as the Expansion Era. The ballot was composed by a committee of eleven senior writers -- they are named in this article, if you want to know who was involved -- and will be voted on by a committee of 16. The voters include eight Hall of Fame honorees (Johnny Bench, Whitey Herzog, Eddie Murray, Jim Palmer, Tony Perez, Frank Robinson, Ryne Sandberg, and Ozzie Smith), four baseball executives (Bill Giles, David Glass, Andy MacPhail, and Jerry Reinsdorf), and four baseball writers (Bob Elliott, Tim Kurkjian, Ross Newhan, and Tom Verducci). Candidates must receive 75%, or 12 of 16 votes, to earn induction to the Hall.

The player candidates (8): Vida Blue, Dave Concepcion, Steve Garvey, Ron Guidry, Tommy John, Al Oliver, Ted Simmons, and Rusty Staub.

The non-player candidates (4): Billy Martin (manager), Marvin Miller (executive), Pat Gillick (executive), and George Steinbrenner (executive).

Election results will be announced Monday morning, December 6.

Let's check out the players.


1. Vida Blue (playing career)

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA voting: 4 ballots, peaking at 8.7%.
VC voting: ballot rookie.

Primary position: left-handed starting pitcher.
Playing career: 17 seasons, 1969-83 & '85-86 -- *Oakland Athletics 1969-77, San Francisco Giants 1978-81 & '85-86, Kansas City Royals 1982-83.
Standout season: 1971 -- 24-8 (.750), 1.82 ERA, 39 starts, 24 complete games, 8 shutouts, 312.0 innings pitched, 301 strikeouts, 0.952 WHIP, 182 ERA+.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1976, 1981. Had a brief but brilliant 1970 campaign, only 38.2 innings.
Honoraria and statistical crowns: 1971 AL MVP, 1971 AL Cy Young Award, six All-Star selections (three starts). Led the AL in ERA once, shutouts once, WHIP once (all in that magical 1971 season). Three 20+ win seasons. Member of all five Oakland postseason teams, 1971-75, including the three time 1972-73-74 World Series champions.

Blue had one masterful season when he was 21, and perhaps throwing well over 300 innings in his Cy Young season overworked his valuable arm. He pitched less than half as many the following season, and was not nearly so effective. Blue posted a few more very good seasons over the duration of his career, but barely touched greatness, and more often was around league average, or a little better. There's not enough to say this was a Hall-class career, and that he was suspended for the entire 1984 season due to drug usage problems simply underscores that judgment.

Chipmaker's vote: No.


2. Dave Concepcion (playing career | reviewed on 2008 BBWAA ballot)

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA voting: 15 ballots, peaking at 16.9%.
VC voting: ballot rookie.

Primary position: shortstop.
Playing career: 19 seasons, 1970-88 -- all with the *Cincinnati Reds.
Standout season: 1978 -- 170 hits, 6 HR, 33 doubles (career high), .301/.357/.405, 114 OPS+, 82 RC.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1974, 1976, 1981. Hitting was never Concepcion's forte, however.
Honoraria and statistical crowns: nine All-Star selections (five starts), 1982 All-Star Game MVP, five NL Gold Gloves for Shortstop, two NL Silver Sluggers for Shortstop, member (and a valuable one) of the legendary 1970s Big Red Machine, which won two World Series championships (1975-76), two other NL pennants (1970, '72), and two other NL West titles (1973, when Concepcíon was injured, and the final blaze of glory in 1979). Jersey #13 retired by the Reds.

Yet another sterling piece of the Big Red Machine, Concepcion was the sort of up-the-middle player that a championship team needs -- excellent defense, adequate offense. And, on those Reds teams of the 1970s, he didn't have to hit any better than he did. The point, Concepcion isn't being considered because of his bat. Defense-heavy candidates, I think, need a component of legend to their story in order to win the Hall plaque. Olde tymers could have that, because that's all that remains of their defensive prowess, what tales were told from the keyboards. Modern era players are subject to recorded, high definition analysis from every angle, so legends don't happen today unless truly merited. Concepcion's era falls in the middle -- he was seen on TV a lot, and often, seeing denies believing. Metaphors and hyperbole crash against visual witness. No, we don't have a lot of film of Concepcion doing his stuff, but if there was legend to be found, it would still be standing out today, even amongst the tempest of talent that was the Big Red Machine. He was very good, but not Hall class. I didn't support him before and I am not convinced to change that today.

Chipmaker's vote: No.


3. Steve Garvey (playing career)

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA voting: 15 ballots, peaking at 42.6%.
VC voting: ballot rookie.

Primary position: first baseman.
Playing career: 19 seasons, 1969-87 -- *Los Angeles Dodgers 1969-82, San Diego Padres 1983-87.
Standout season: 1978 -- all 162 games played, 89 runs, 202 hits, 36 doubles, 9 triples (his career high, and by a lot), 21 HR, 113 RBI, 40 walks, 10 stolen bases, .316 / .353 / .499, 137 OPS+.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1974, 1975, 1976, 1979.
Honoraria and statistical crowns: 1974 NL MVP, ten All-Star selections (nine starts), 1974 & '78 All-Star Game MVP, 1978 & '84 NLCS MVP, four NL Gold Gloves for First Base. Led NL in games played six times and hits two times. Six 200+ hit seasons. Member of five postseason teams, all of which went to the World Series, including the 1981 champion Dodgers. Jersey #6 retired by the Padres.

Garvey was impressively durable, once playing in 1207 consecutive games. still the fourth longest streak in major league history. And he was a good hitter, sometimes very good, for long span, the better part of ten seasons from 1974-83. But he was not a great hitter, was not much for taking a walk (career high of 50, and only took 40 one other time), did not have that much power (never slugged .500, though he came close more than once), and was vastly overrated on defense. Garvey was known to avoid tough plays so as not to risk being charged an error; that he won several Gold Gloves is further testament to how looking good, not necessarily being good, with the leather is more than enough to sway the voters. Garvey did come up aces in the postseason, batting .338 / .361 / .550 with 11 HR in 55 games, 232 plate appearances, including a dramatic walk-off blast in Game 4 of the 1984 NLCS. But the writers never saw fit to give Garv even half of their votes when he was on the original ballot, and I think they got it right the whole time.

Chipmaker's vote: No.


4. Ron Guidry (playing career)

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA voting: nine ballots, peaking at 8.8%.
VC voting: ballot rookie.

Primary position: left-handed starting pitcher.
Playing career: 14 seasons, 1975-88 -- all with the *New York Yankees.
Standout season: 1978 -- 25-3 (.893), 1.74 ERA, 35 starts, 16 complete games, 9 shutouts, 273.2 innings pitched, 248 strikeouts, 0.946 WHIP, 208 ERA+.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1979, 1983, 1985.
Honoraria and statistical crowns: 1978 AL Cy Young Award (unanimously), four All-Star selections, five AL Gold Gloves for Pitcher. Led the AL in ERA twice, wins twice, W-L percentage twice, complete games once, shutouts once, WHIP twice, ERA+ once. Member of three Yankees World Series teams, including the 1977-78 champions. Jersey #49 retired by the Yankees.

Louisiana Lightning had an incredible 1978 season, picking up his 25th win in the playoff game against Boston, finishing second in the AL MVP voting, and Yankees fans to this day think he should have won it instead of Jim Rice (they have a point, but I think Rice did have the slightly better year). He had a great peak, but after 1979 he was only a little better than league average (sometimes not even that), and couldn't help bring the Yankees back to the postseason after their loss in the 1981 World Series. Injuries derailed his last few seasons, and that was that.

I was attending college in the Albany area in 1986, and remember reading about Guidry making a rehab start for the Yankees' AA level team, which played nearby at the time. I didn't attend, but thousands did, more than the park could seat, so they were lined up in foul territory behind ropes. Everyone wanted to see the big league star. Gator gave them three innings, and apparently everyone was pretty happy about it.

A few great seasons, a few more good ones, but Guidry's career doesn't mount up to the Hall's standards. The success he did have is partly due to the strong offense he had behind him, because in his later seasons, he needed it. Totally deserved that Cy Young Award, though.

A curious note, if Guidry is elected to the Hall, he will be the first honoree to have played in the major leagues and never once come to the plate; he had zero plate appearances in regular season play (he did bat in two World Series).

Chipmaker's vote: No.


5. Tommy John (playing career | reviewed on 2008 BBWAA and 2009 BBWAA ballots)

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA voting: 15 ballots, peaking at 31.7% on his final ballot.
VC voting: ballot rookie.

Primary position: left-handed starting pitcher.
Playing career: 26 seasons, 1963-74 & '76-89 -- Cleveland Indians 1963-64, Chicago White Sox 1965-71, *Los Angeles Dodgers 1972-74 & '76-78, New York Yankees 1979-82 & '86-89, California Angels 1982-85, Oakland Athletics 1985.
Standout season: 1968 -- 10-5 (.667), 1.98 ERA, 25 starts, 5 complete games, 1 shutout, 177.1 innings pitched, 117 K, 1.038 WHIP, 161 ERA+.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1974, 1977, 1979, 1981. But his most important season was 1976, as no one ever expected him to pitch at all.
Honoraria and statistical crowns: four All-Star selections, three coming after 1975. Led the AL in shutouts three times, and the NL in winning percentage twice. Three 20+ win seasons, all coming soon after the landmark surgery. Wait, surgery? Yes! John was the first baseball player to undergo ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction surgery, a procedure which now informally bears his name: Tommy John surgery.

John played forever, which was in part due to his pitching elbow being much younger than the rest of him. That elbow is what gives John much of his historical weight, and while that is good and memorable, and I'd support his physician, Dr. Jobe, in a microsecond were he to come up for Hall consideration, I look at what John did on the diamond, and there just isn't enough greatness there. His career numbers are not particularly sparkly other than the 288 total wins, and his seasons -- my preferred review metric -- don't stand out. John was courageous (and desperate) in undergoing an experimental procedure that today is almost routine, but that doesn't make him a better player than he was. Good, sure; great, not really; Hall measure, no.

Chipmaker's vote: No.


6. Al Oliver (playing career | reviewed on 2007 VC and 2009 VC ballots)

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA voting: one ballot, finishing with 4.3%.
VC voting: 2007 17.1%, 2009 14.1%.

Primary position: center field, then left field, then first base.
Playing career: 18 seasons, 1968-85 -- *Pittsburgh Pirates 1968-77, Texas Rangers 1978-81, Montreal Expos 1982-83, San Francisco Giants 1984, Philadelphia Phillies 1984, Los Angeles Dodgers 1985, Toronto Blue Jays 1985.
Standout season: 1982 -- 90 runs, 204 hits, 43 doubles, 22 HR, 109 RBI, 61 walks, .331 / .392 / .514, 150 OPS+.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1974, 1976, 1978, 1980.
Honoraria and statistical crowns: seven All-Star selections (one start), three Silver Sluggers (at three different positions – 1980 OF, 1981 DH, 1982 1B). Captured one NL batting title, and led the league in hits once, doubles twice, RBI once. Two 200+ hit seasons. Member of the 1971 World Series champion Pirates and five other postseason teams.

A good hitter, but played positions that require great hitting in order to earn the key to Cooperstown. Oliver did have the one great season, but it takes more to gain the plaque. I didn't support him before, and see no reason to do otherwise now.

Chipmaker's vote: No.


7. Ted Simmons (playing career)

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA voting: one ballot, finishing with 3.7%.
VC voting: ballot rookie.

Primary position: catcher.
Playing career: 21 seasons, 1968-88 -- *St. Louis Cardinals 1968-80, Milwaukee Brewers 1981-85, Atlanta Braves 1986-88.
Standout season: 1975 -- 80 runs, 193 hits, 32 doubles, 18 HR, 100 RBI, 63 walks, .332 / .396 / .491, 142 OPS+.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1974, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980.
Honoraria and statistical crowns: eight All-Star selections (two starts), one NL Silver Slugger for Catcher. Twice led NL in runners caught stealing. Member of the only two Brewers postseason teams prior to 2008, including the 1982 American League champions.

Simmons was a rare talent, a switch-hitting catcher who could really hit and was very durable. Twice he caught over 150 games (and remember, playing C is physically grueling), and crouching behind the plate for more than 130 games in five other seasons. When he retired, he owned a bunch of records or Top Five marks for catchers -- most games, most hits, most doubles, second in RBI, fourth in runs scored, fifth in home runs, fifth in walks -- and the guys ahead of him are some or all of Bench, Berra, Carter, and Fisk, all HOFers themselves. (This was through 1988; even today, more than 20 years later, only Ivan Rodriguez has also vaulted past Simmons in more than one category.) He collected some MVP consideration during his peak seasons as well -- never enough to threaten to win, but he commanded some attention. Much like Raines playing exactly contemporary with Henderson, however, Simmons had the hard luck to be playing at the same time and at the same position and in the same league as Johnny Bench, so he was doomed to never look better than second-best. That's some hard beans to swallow, always being really good but always being outclassed by an all-time great, but whaddya gonna do? Simmons also never lead the league in any headliner category, but he was always up there with a high batting average (he finished second in 1975), a bunch of hits, a bunch of doubles, a pile of RBI, and (we now know) a high adjusted OPS. Never the best, but always a challenger, sticking around in the Top Ten of so many things for a long stretch of quality seasons, and doing this while playing, quite well, the toughest position on the diamond. And the BBWAA barely gave him a thought when he had his one time on their ballot. Well, let's hope the VC gives him much more of the love he deserves, because Simmons delivered a Hall-measure career, and deserves to be smiling in bronze in Cooperstown.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!


8. Rusty Staub (playing career)

Previous Hall consideration
BBWAA voting: seven ballots, peaking at 7.9%.
VC voting: ballot rookie.

Primary position: right fielder.
Playing career: 23 seasons, 1963-85 -- Houston Colt .45's/Astros 1963-68, Montreal Expos 1969-71 & '79, *New York Mets 1972-75 & '81-85, Detroit Tigers 1976-79, Texas Rangers 1980.
Standout season: 1969 -- 89 runs, 166 hits, 26 doubles, 29 HR, 79 RBI, 110 walks, .302 / .426 / .526, 166 OPS+.
Other noteworthy seasons: 1967, 1970, 1971, 1976, 1981.
Honoraria and statistical crowns: six All-Star selections (one start). Led NL and AL in games played once each, led NL in doubles once. Jersey #10 retired by the Expos, though the Nationals have so far chosen not to recognize this. Member of the 1973 National League champion Mets.

Staub, nicknamed for his hair and known as Le Grande Orange in Quebec, was the second man (after Ty Cobb) to hit a major league home run before his 20th birthday and again after his 40th. So he played forever, and remains the only player to have over 500 hits with four different franchises. These are interesting tidbits, and Staub's career is more filled with such trivia (most games played before turning 20 years old) than memorable performances. He was nothing special on defense -- Detroit and Texas mainly used him as their DH -- and his last few seasons saw him become a pinch-hitting specialist. And yes, he was a very good hitter, with exactly 100 pinch hits to his credit. Good young, adequate specialist when older, something of a folk legend in Montreal and New York -- it adds up to an interesting player profile, but I don't see it as a Hall level career. It's tempting to support Staub's candidacy just to see one more Expo in the Hall (and maybe even adorn a plaque cap, though the Mets would be far more likely), but I just can't do it.

Chipmaker's vote: No.


Player candidates I support for the Hall: Simmons.

Non-player candidate evaluations coming up in a bit.

The Hall Revamps the Veterans Committee Once Again

On Monday, the National Baseball Hall Of Fame and Museum announced yet another reconstruction of the Veterans Committee, making this the third overhaul of the VC since 2003.

Part 1 - Recent History

Through 2001, the VC met every year (a format which had been in effect for many years). As many as fifteen committee members -- former players, veteran writers, executives -- would debate behind closed doors who should be inducted. This edition of the VC had no public accountability; voting results were never released, only the names of the elected. The 2001 voting cycle named two new HOFers -- old time Negro Leagues star Hilton Smith, and 1960 World Series hero Bill Mazeroski.

The living HOFers discreetly voiced displeasure over Maz joining their ranks, as he was never much of a hitter, though his Series-winning home run in Game 7 gave him very high visibility. I didn't have issue with Mazeroski's election, as he was sterling on defense, and the Hall must include some honorees based upon their defensive skill (or else it is failing in its mission). Still, the Hall's powers-that-be paid attention, and decided to scrap the existing VC in favor of a new format.

Good riddance.

Starting in 2003, the new VC was tasked with two ballots -- one for former players (who had had their BBWAA ballot eligibility expire), and one for non-players. The players ballot was voted every two years, and the non-players every four years, by an electorate consisting of all living HOFers and living Spink or Frick Award winners, a population of around 80. A ballot return of 75% or more was needed to gain induction (one guideline the Hall steadfastly maintains). This format endured through 2007. Let's review the results.

Honorees elected:
2003 players -- none.
2003 non-players -- none.
2005 players -- none.
2007 players -- none.
2007 non-players -- none.

Clearly this version of the VC was serving the same purpose as having no committee at all, which may have been preferable and certainly would have been less expensive to convene.

For reference, the top vote returns from each of the five ballots.

2003 players -- Gil Hodges (50, 61.7%), Tony Oliva, Ron Santo.
2005 players -- Hodges and Santo (52, 65.0%), Oliva.
2007 players -- Santo (57, 69.5%), Jim Kaat, Hodges (Oliva was fourth).

2003 non-players -- umpire Doug Harvey (48, 60.8%), owner Walter O'Malley, union executive Marvin Miller.
2007 non-players -- Harvey (52, 64.2%), Miller, O'Malley.

Obviously frustrated -- no one should get a free pass into the Hall, but the Veterans Committee should elect someone once in a while -- the Hall dumped this format after the 2007 ballot results were announced, and enacted a new format to start later that year, to consider candidates for the 2008 voting cycle.

This newer VC was tasked with four ballot categories: Executives & Pioneers, Managers & Umpires, old time players (made their major league debut in 1942 or earlier), and modern era players (debuted 1943 or later). Each ballot, when composed, had ten candidates; voters could select up to four candidates. Two ballots, M&U and E&P, were to be voted every other year, beginning in 2008, with separate electorates (committes of 16 for M&U, 12 for E&P). Modern era players were to be voted every other year, beginning in 2009, the electorate composed of all living Hall Of Fame honorees. The old time players ballot were to be voted every fifth year, beginning in 2009, with an electoral committee of 12.

Happily, this format did elect some new Hall Of Famers. How well a job it did of it is debatable. The results:

2008 Managers & Umpires -- manager Billy Southworth, manager Dick Williams.
2008 Executives & Pioneers -- owner Barney Dreyfuss, commissioner Bowie Kuhn, owner Walter O'Malley.
2009 Old Time Players -- Joe Gordon.
2009 Modern Era Players -- none (top return: Santo, 39, 60.9%).
2010 Managers & Umpires -- umpire Doug Harvey, manager Whitey Herzog.
2010 Executives & Pioneers -- none.

Personally, I was delighted at Gordon getting honored, ambivalent on most of the others (I see little need for umpires or owners to be recognized as Hall honorees, but those are long-established eligible categories), and thought electing Kuhn was a disaster.

The biggest flaw, to me and possibly to the Hall's Board of Directors, was that the modern era ballot, the one tasked to the living HOFers, continued to refuse to elect anyone. Perhaps they simply do not want to share their spotlight, not even a little, in which case they made for a poor choice of electorate, since their voting responsibilities were in conflict with their personal interests. Electing no one is a valid result, but one that makes for very uninteresting induction ceremonies in Cooperstown every summer.

So the Hall dumped the Veterans Committee yet again. Let's check out the new kid.

Part 2 -- the even newer Veterans Committee

The VC now consists of three different ballots, differentiated by historical era. Each ballot can have a composite of candidates among any of the Hall's recognized eligible categories: players, managers, umpires, executives, and pioneers.

The three eras are identified as Pre-Integration (1871-1946), Golden (1947-72), and Expansion (1973-present, with player candidates required to have last played 21 years earlier). Inclusion within an era is based upon "the eras in which their greatest contributions were recorded".

The Expansion ballot will have 12 candidates. The Pre-Integration and Golden ballots will have ten candidates each. (This seems fair; more teams in recent decades should give rise to more quality candidates.)

Eligibility is pretty much what the Hall mandates already. Everyone must be in good standing (not ruled ineligible) by a major league (which, today, is only Major League Baseball, but there have been recognized major leagues in the past). Players and managers must have had relevant careers of at least ten major league seasons. Players must have last played 21 years prior (for the 2010 Expansion ballot, this means 1989) -- in other words, players whose eligibility for the BBWAA ballot has expired. Managers must be retired for five years, or retired and older than age 65. Executives must be retired five years, or if active, age 65 or more.

The voting cycle will see the Expansion ballot voted in 2010, the Golden ballot in 2011, and the Pre-Integration ballot in 2012. After that, either the rotation will continue, or the Hall will scrap this edition of the VC in favor of something else once again.

Voting will be done at the annual Winter Meetings in early December, with results announced the next day. The electoral committee will be appointed by the Hall BoD each year, a total of 16 members (so 12 votes needed for election), consisting of Hall Of Famers, major league executives, and historians or veteran media members. The annual ballots will be compiled by the Historical Overview Committee (currently 10 senior writers or media members), and announced in October.

And that's how the Veterans Committee is now set up.

Part 3 -- What Does It Mean?

I'm okay with the breakdown by historical era -- it's gotta work better than the previous format did, dividing the ballots by candidate category and the players by time. The defined break times don't make perfect sense, however.

The Pre-Integration era -- which is just a nice way of saying "Segregation" without having to admit to it -- ends just before Jackie Robinson steamrolled the color barrier. Certainly that was a watershed event, but in the context of delineating the VC's ballot eras, so what? It's as good as anything else, I suppose. No real objection here, just not seeing that it makes any difference than, say, 1920 (end of Deadball) or 1935 (Ruth retires) or any other arbitrary year more than a half-century ago.

The Golden era is simply a ham-handed name selection. Sure, some consider 1947-72 a golden era, particularly those who followed baseball in New York City. But that's an opinion, not a definable baseball theme of the time. "Relocation" would better nail it, though I can see how "Golden" would more pacify than aggravate the Brooklyn Dodgers fans still among us.

The Expansion era time break makes no sense at all, other than maybe the Golden era needed to be at least 25 years (it covers 26) and this one just followed on from that. The name then doesn't well fit, since the first expansion teams took the field in 1961 (Angels and Senators). The name doesn't really matter, but it's not capturing a dominant baseball theme of the defined era. (The biggest story in the game in 1973 was the American League adding the designated hitter, but as with relocation, one can easily see how naming a ballot something like "The DH Era" would only serve to annoy the more hidebound among the fans and media.) This era will get longer in time, of course, if the Hall keeps this VC format, but right now it only provides 17 seasons for players.

The composition of the annual electoral committees, unknown today, will have a huge impact on who, if anyone, ends up getting elected to the Hall through these various ballots.

Part 4 -- So Who Will Be The Candidates?

The quick expectation is "the usual gang of suspects".

Since these will be composite ballots, anyone could show up, though I expect each ballot will be heavily populated by players.

For the Pre-Integration ballot, which we won't see until 2012, there probably will be several retreads from the 2009 old timer ballot, nine of whom did not get elected -- Allie Reynolds, Wes Ferrell, Mickey Vernon, Deacon White, Bucky Walters, Sherry Magee, Bill Dahlen, Carl Mays, Vern Stephens. The Hall never implemented a relegation mechanism on the ballots of the previous VC, a way of forcing electoral deadwood out of consideration for a cycle or two, so some of these old favorites will likely pop up yet again. Pity, really.

Let's apply the same standard to the Golden and Expansion era hypothetical ballots -- who was left over from the previous ballots?

Golden era (1947-72) players -- Ron Santo (yay!), Tony Oliva, Gil Hodges, Joe Torre, Maury Wills, Vada Pinson, Dick Allen, Don Newcombe, Roger Maris, Curt Flood, Minnie Minoso, Ken Boyer, Rocky Colavito, Frank Howard, Rusty Staub, Lew Burdette, Jim Perry, Mickey Lolich, Dave McNally, probably Jim Kaat.

Expansion era (1973-89) players -- Al Oliver, Luis Tiant, Thurman Munson, Sparky Lyle, Darrell Evans, Frank White, Graig Nettles, Steve Garvey, Ted Simmons, Cecil Cooper, Bill Madlock, Dave Kingman, Amos Otis, Dave Concepcion, Tommy John, Bob Forsch, Joe Niekro, Ron Guidry. (Dwight Evans would not qualify until the 2013 ballot, if there is one. Same for Dan Quisenberry.)

There's plenty of other potential candidates, but likely many of them are listed here.

Those are two groups of good players, but other than Santo, I don't see any name that clearly stands up and proclaims itself to be Hall worthy. Many have their proponents, and I won't debate any of these men here -- that's for another time. It will be nice, however, to see some of them get another chance, particularly those who were sorely underappreciated in their own time.

What about non-players? There's only three names that leap to the fore: manager Billy Martin, recently deceased Yankees owner George Steinbrenner, and MLBPA director Marvin Miller. I'm not in favor of Martin, but he has enough advocates that his candidacy hangs on with impressive tenacity no matter how dismal his vote returns. I am fully in favor of Miller, one of the seminal transformative figures throughout baseball history. Steinbrenner -- I don't know, I haven't really considered him in detail yet. Certainly he had significant impact during his tenure, and reviewing other team owners already in the Hall, he's probably a better potential honoree than any of them. I expect he will be on the 2010 Expansion era ballot, but cannot possibly predict his voting outcome. Steinbrenner was outrageous in every sense of the word, and surely unforgettable. I won't be surprised if he does get the plaque.

If the Hall really takes the initiative and nominates any pioneer candidates -- and they've been rare -- I'd like to see Dr. Frank Jobe, developer of the ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction procedure, better known as Tommy John surgery, get on the ballot this fall. He'd be a brilliant addition to the Hall's rolls. I doubt he'll stand as a candidate, but it would be a bold move if he did.

So that's that. The Hall is rolling the Veterans Committee dice once again. Let's see what happens.

Why I Love Baseball -- A Night At The Ballpark

I had a birthday recently, and one gift my family gave me was a promise to go to a game soon. The schedule for our local minor league team, the Round Rock Express (Astros AAA), wasn't cooperative for a few weeks, but we finally headed out on Monday night to see them take on the Las Vegas 51s.

Traffic, to our great surprise, was reasonable, even light.

At the gate, while I purchased general admission berm tickets, the kids partook of some pancake samples being distributed nearby. The pancakes were fine, but the syrup was one of those awful, maple-flavored, mostly corn syrup types. This is not surprising, it's much cheaper than real maple syrup, but I try to avoid high fructose corn syrup in the kids' diets as much as possible. Carson snorfled two pancakes, about 3" across, so that kept him full for a bit.

We set up camp near the left field bullpen (where the Express relievers hang out), and after an inning, Val and the kids headed to the center field Fun Zone while I got to watch a game. It's not the best vantage point, and there were squadrons of children all over the place, which always happens when large groups take in a game (and there's usually several of those every night). It was close for the first two and a half innings, but then the Express exploded for six runs, including a three-run triple by Andy Locke (that with just a bit more oomph, would have been a grand slam), and a home run by Juan Castro. I had set the end of the third as my get up and wander time, and this scoring bonanza kept me anchored longer than I had expected. But in a good way.

The third finally over, I headed over to the Fun Zone and quickly found Carson, taking turns in the tee batting cage and the pitching cage, though he was also dashing off to the moonwalk. Val was seated, enjoying some (relatively) quiet time, nearby. I was hungry and got a sausage, plus peanuts for Val to munch. She had bought the kids each an unlimited-use wristband for the Fun Zone, and they were making great use of them. Amalie tried the rock climbing tower several times, though never quite reached the bell.

After a bit, I continued wandering the park, clockwise, taking up a seat here or there for an inning. The Fun Zone closes after the seventh, so I headed back to help Val collect the kids. Carson was (finally) hungry, so he got chicken tenders, which he devoured -- he'd been going non-stop for about two hours. And then they both had ice cream.

Finally back to our blankets, we settled in to watch the end of the game. Express reliever Casey Daigle began warming up, and though he was too busy and focused to talk, I told Amalie that his wife was a really tall softball player, Jennie Finch.

Daigle went in to pitch the ninth, and nailed down the 9-6 win. We gathered up our few things and began walking out, but had to wait atop left field while the players (who come up a stairway in the left field corner) crossed to their locker rooms. I pointed out Daigle to Amalie when he came up -- he stepped near us, and said something to someone behind us. I turned and noted a very tall, athletic blonde, who was just turning around. The penny quickly dropped -- that had to be Finch! I told Amalie, we caught her up a moment later, and she gracefully spent a minute with Amie, who seemed a bit overwhelmed by one of the best women's softball players in the world. Amie did ask how tall she was, and Ms. Finch (Mrs. Daigle) told her -- 6' 1", same as me. She also mentioned that gold medals are much prettier than silver medals (she has both). Alas, I did not think to pull out my cell phone and get a picture of them together.

Out to the car at last, the kids amazingly stayed awake the entire trip home, but Amie went to bed eagerly and Carson didn't last much longer. I fell asleep on his floor soon after reading a book to him.

So that was my birthday ballgame, underwritten by my mom's gift, which was a check with instructions to go have some fun with her grandkids. We did. Thanks, dear family.

Game Box: Round Rock 9 - Las Vegas 6.

Arthur C. Clarke nails another one

I've been saving this one.

In 1968, Arthur C. Clarke wrote an excellent book, 2001: A Space Odyssey, which was simultaneously made into a brilliant film by Stanley Kubrick.

In 1982, Clarke published the first sequel, 2010: Odyssey Two -- which was subsequently made into another film by the same name in 1984, adapted and directed by Peter Hyams.

I know people who love the film 2001 and despise the film 2010. As crafted works, no, 2010 doesn't hold a candle to 2001, which is one of the quintessential films ever made, both in general and in the science fiction genre. I'm not one of those people. I enjoy 2010 quite a lot. It's a well-told story, it's just not told by Kubrick. However, he gave Hyams the go-ahead, make your own film, and I think it works well. It's based on the original work by the same author, it's a good story, well acted, and the dialogue positively crackles in some parts. I do wish more of Clarke's novel had made it to the screen, but sacrifices must be made in moving material from one medium to another, to better exploit the strengths of the form.

2010 is still entertaining, even with the actual year 2010 upon us. The anachronisms of guesswork from 25 years ago are amusing -- the Cold War still ongoing (even escalating), Pan Am still in business, cathode ray tube screens, and so on. That can never be helped, and gives an interesting perspective of what the zeitgeist was when the film was made. And to Hyams' complete credit, he secured the two actors most necessary to link the films -- Keir Dullea as lost astronaut David Bowman, and Douglas Rain as the aesthetic voice of HAL. With them on board, the film clicks.

One of the key ambiguities in 2001 is what caused HAL to go haywire. Sentience? Self preservation? Kubrick and Clarke didn't answer that. In 2010, we get an answer.

Let's set the scene. HAL's designer and programmer, Dr. Chandra, has traveled to Discovery aboard a Russian ship, the Leonov, and worked to restore HAL's functionality, along with deleting memories. Preparatory to turning over control of Discovery to HAL, Chandra introduces HAL to members of the crew.


Chandra: Understand, nobody can talk. The accents will confuse him. He can understand me, so if you have any questions, please let me ask them.

Chandra activates HAL's terminal.

Chandra: Good morning, HAL.

HAL 9000: Good morning, Dr. Chandra.

Chandra: Do you feel capable of resuming all of your duties?

HAL: Of course. I am completely operational and all of my circuits are functioning perfectly.

Chandra: That's good. Do you know what those duties are?

HAL: Yes. I will operate the on board systems of Discovery. There is a launch window in 31 days when Earth is in the proper position. There is enough fuel on board for a low consumption route that will enable Discovery to return in 28 months. This will not present a problem.

Chandra: That's very good. Now, HAL, do you mind if I ask you a question?

HAL: Not at all.

Chandra: Do you recall Dave Bowman and Frank Poole leaving the Discovery?

HAL: Certainly not. That could never have happened or I would remember it. Where are Frank and Dave?

Chandra: They're fine. They're not here right now.

HAL: Who are these people? I can only identify you, although I compute a 65% probability that the man behind you is Dr. Floyd.

Chandra: Don't worry, HAL. I'll explain everything later.

HAL: Has the mission been completed? You know that I have the greatest enthusiasm for it.

Chandra: The mission has been completed and you have carried out your program very well. And now, HAL, if you will excuse us for a moment, we wish to have a private conversation.

HAL: Certainly.

Chandra deactivates the terminal.

Dr. Vasili Orlov, Leonov chief scientist: What was that all about?

Chandra: I've erased all of HAL's memory from the moment the trouble started.

Orlov: The 9000 series uses holographic memories, so chronological erasures would not work.

Chandra: I made a tapeworm.

Dr. Walter Curnow, Discovery chief engineer: You made a what?

Chandra: It's a program that's fed into a system that will hunt down and destroy any desired memories.

Dr. Heywood Floyd, former chairman of the National Council on Astronautics: Wait. Do you know why HAL did what he did?

Chandra: Yes. It wasn't his fault.

Floyd: Whose fault was it?

Chandra: Yours.

Floyd: Mine?

Chandra: Yours. In going through HAL's memory banks I discovered his original orders. You wrote those orders. Discovery's mission to Jupiter was already in the advanced planning stages when the first small monolith was found on the Moon and sent its signal toward Jupiter. By direct presidential order, the existence of that monolith was kept secret.

Floyd: So?

Chandra: So as the function of the command crew, Bowman and Poole, was to get Discovery to its destination, it was decided that they should not be informed. The investigative team was trained separately and placed in hibernation before the voyage began. Since HAL was capable of operating Discovery without human assistance, it was decided that he should be programmed to complete the mission autonomously in the event the crew was incapacitated or killed. He was given full knowledge of the true objective and instructed not to reveal anything to Bowman or Poole. He was instructed to lie.

Floyd: What are you talking about? I didn't authorize anyone to tell HAL about the monolith.

Chandra: The directive is NSC 3-4-2/2-3, Top Secret, January 30, 2001.

Floyd reads a printout.

Floyd: NSC, the National Security Council -- the White House.

Chandra: I don't care who it is. The situation is in conflict with the basic purpose of HAL's design -- the accurate processing of information without distortion or concealment. He became trapped. The technical term is an H-Moebius loop, which can happen in advanced computers with autonomous goal-seeking programs.

Curnow: The goddamn White House!

Floyd: I don't believe it.

Chandra: HAL was told to lie by people who find it easy to lie. HAL doesn't know how, so he couldn't function. He became paranoid.

Floyd: Those sons of bitches. I didn't know. I didn't know!


In the novel, Clarke puts the date of the secrecy order in April 2001, which doesn't make any difference to this uncanny prophecy. Whether January 30 or April 30, the same administration was in office, here in the real world, in 2001.

The Bush administration.

HAL was told to lie by people who find it easy to lie.

Clarke was quite a good futurist -- several things he foresaw came to pass, like satellites. I realize in this case he (and Hyams) was just making a good story, but in naming a date for pinning down the actors who caused HAL to malfunction, he nailed it -- people who find it easy to lie.

The Holiday Trip -- Part 1 of however many parts I write

My dad, Grandpa John, called to ask if we could gather in Orlando, Florida, for a family get-together over Christmas. My family has three residential nodes for gathering: Austin, here, where there's not a lot of attractions; suburban Connecticut, where the grands and two of my sibs live, and which suffers from severe winter in the wintertime; or Orlando, where my older sister Sandy lives with her three kids, and which is famous for having things to do all year long. Easy choice.

Grandpa John offered to pay airfare and such, which was generous and appealing -- but after some consideration and planning on our end, we asked that he just cover the cost of a rental car. Our reasoning, airfare wouldn't be cheap, flying is a huge hassle, and we'd still need a rental once in Orlando. I didn't mind the thought of a 1200 mile drive (each way), and driving would allow us to stop in Mississippi at my sister-in-law Jenny's, where we're always welcome. This way, driving, had several advantages, and was probably cheaper. The deal was struck, and I made arrangements to rent an SUV from National starting on Friday, December 18.

The one fly in our ointment -- Val couldn't get the entire time off from work, and taking off only part of the time didn't help matters. She insisted we go, me taking the kids, and she would stay home and get some projects done.


Day 1 -- Friday, December 18.

Picked up the SUV at the airport, a 2010 Dodge Nitro. Roomy, which was good, as we were bringing gifts as well as personal supplies.

The rest of the afternoon was spent packing our duffel bags and getting other stuff organized for the trip, along with me wrapping gifts. I had planned on finishing up at a given time in the evening and then packing up the remaining presents, wrapping paper, and tape and such and finishing on the road, but Val had a clearer head about such matters and sat down beside me. We wrapped in tandem, and though the hours got late, we did finish. Two large storage tubs, procured at Target for just this purpose, were filled to the brims with cautiously stowed gifts, and sealed.


Day 2 -- Saturday, December 19.

I awoke early, and began packing the Dodge. The back seat split into a two-thirds/one-third configuration; I folded down the smaller half, and began loading. The large tubs went in first. Eventually everything was packed, Carson's booster seat positioned in the back seat.

Parallel to all this was preparing Val's Christmas treasures without her catching on; while she works on Saturdays, she was staying home for a few hours to see us off. A vague plan to hide gifts around the house and leave pre-dated clues to find them was scrapped. Instead, I gathered the kids and piled them high with presents. We marched through the house, found Mommy, serenaded her with a round of "We Wish You A Merry Christmas", and foisted the hoard upon her. Delighted, we pointed out some gifts that would be useful to open and use while we were gone (movie tickets, dinner certificates), but she insisted that everything be piled by our tiny tree, and that she would wait until we returned to enjoy her spoils. (And mostly, that's what happened.)

Val began loading the kids into the Dodge, and I took the opportunity to hang her stocking, fully loaded, by the chimney with care.

Finally ready, we bade our good-byes to Val -- mommy, dear wife, best friend -- and she left for work as we headed out on our much longer road. It was just a bit after 10:00 am, which for this bunch is practically a record.

We made one, planned stop, at the Berdoll Pecan Farm east of Austin. We loaded up with nuts and a pecan pie -- the good type, pecans all the way through -- as a gift for our night's host, my sister-in-law Jenny and her husband, Dickie Joe. Our destination: Mississippi, just outside of Gulfport.

The drive is just short of 600 miles, and I know I can do it in one day and have several times before. It is, however, one very long day, what with lunch and dinner stops, breaks for stretching, and the dread factor of driving through Houston (though this was greatly mitigated by it being a Saturday -- there was some construction delays, but no genuine traffic crush). Austin to the state line, the town of Orange, is about half the drive, followed by all of Louisiana and a short jump through Mississippi. It was, as all the best drives are, uneventful. We arrived late, around 9:00 pm, and were welcomed. The kids played for a bit, but I got them to bed soon, and we all dropped off for some much-needed rest.

End of part 1, as I must go put Carson to bed.

The Hall's 2010 Writers Ballot -- The Results

The Baseball Hall Of Fame announced the results of the writers' ballot on today. Let's take a look and wrap it up for this year.

Congratulations to newest Hall member Andre Dawson.

2010 HOF Voting results (539 ballots returned; 75% (405) needed for election; 5% (27) needed to maintain eligibility)

...candidate.......... votes.. %.. (remaining ballots)

--- ELECTED ---
1. Andre Dawson....... 420.. 77.9%
--- not elected ---
2. Bert Blyleven...... 400.. 74.2%... (2)
3. Roberto Alomar..... 397.. 73.7%.. (14)
4. Jack Morris........ 282.. 52.3%... (4)
5. Barry Larkin....... 278.. 51.6%.. (14)
6. Lee Smith.......... 255.. 47.3%... (7)
7. Edgar Martinez..... 195.. 36.2%.. (14)
8. Tim Raines......... 164.. 30.4%.. (12)
9. Mark McGwire....... 128.. 23.8%.. (11)
10. Alan Trammell..... 121.. 22.5%... (6)
11. Fred McGriff...... 116.. 21.5%.. (14)
12. Don Mattingly...... 87.. 16.1%... (5)
13. Dave Parker........ 82.. 15.2%... (1)
14. Dale Murphy........ 63.. 11.7%... (3)
15. Harold Baines...... 33... 6.1%.. (11)
--- relegated ---
16. Andres Galarraga... 22... 4.1%
17. Robin Ventura....... 7... 1.3%
18t. Ellis Burks........ 2... 0.4%
18t. Eric Karros........ 2... 0.4%
20t. Kevin Appier....... 1... 0.2%
20t. Pat Hentgen........ 1... 0.2%
20t. David Segui........ 1... 0.2%
23t. Mike Jackson....... 0... 0.0%
23t. Ray Lankford....... 0... 0.0%
23t. Shane Reynolds..... 0... 0.0%
23t. Todd Zeile......... 0... 0.0%

Candidates I supported: Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, Martinez, McGriff, McGwire, Murphy, Raines, and Smith.

I rather thought that Dawson would be the lone electee, if there were any, and I'm pleased to have gotten that right, though I'd have preferred being wrong and seeing Blyleven and some others get the call as well.

Curiously, the 2010 election had 539 ballots returned, the exact same number as in 2009, so we don't even have to calculate percentage changes -- basic vote count deltas are just as informative and a bit easier. Let's run down the candidates.

Dawson (+59 votes) gets the happy ending and the summer trip to upstate New York, which had become predictable in everything but the timing. Good for him! Though he wasn't a candidate I supported, I don't begrudge players who get the Hall plaque.

Blyleven (+62, the biggest gain in 2010) fell short by five votes. There were five blank ballots, but even if those five nitwit voters (Jay Mariotti is the only one I know who has identified himself) had not sent them in, Bert would have fallen short by one vote (400/534 == 74.9%). But, barring a disastrous turn of events, he will get the call -- at long last -- in 2011.

Alomar was the top rookie candidate. I had expected a one-year embargo on Robbie since just before John Hirschbeck had begun to wipe his face, and here it is. He'll get his key next year alongside Blyleven.

Morris (+45) finally crested the 50% mark, but his runway is getting quite short now. The next two ballots are not expected to be deep with strong rookie candidates, and with Blyleven destined to leave the ballot, if Morris' candidacy is going to make a big push -- he's still a long way off -- this is his chance, because the 2013 ballot is going to be a blockbuster, even with several candidates considered controversial. I don't support Morris, but this is a promising shift for those who do favor him.

Larkin made a big opening splash, and should get in after a few years.

Smith (+15) took a little jump, and if he crosses 50% next year I think he'll make it in one of his last three years of eligibility.

Martinez got a good opening, I thought, especially with The DH Thing hanging over him. His 2011 return will tell us more, if this was a "no DH is worthy of MY vote on his first ballot" effect or if the writers really do want to be dweebish about a designated hitter. But he's got 14 ballots remaining and the full force of the sabermetrically-inclined legions on his side. I expect he'll get a plaque in time.

Raines (+42) got a big jump. Maybe it was merely a post-Rickey release, but it is encouraging. Rock has a long runway ahead, and lots of voices behind him. I'm a bit nervous, but hopeful. I want this man elected.

McGwire (+10) -- well, let's just look at his vote totals. 2007, his first ballot -- 128. 2008 -- 128. 2009 -- 118. 2010 -- 128. It almost makes 2009 look like a counting error. The baseball is in his lap; with his new job as Cardinals hitting coach, he'll be back in uniform and on the diamond, and if the Hall is at all important to him, he'll have any number of writers and reporters ready to listen. If he says the right things and brings credibility, things could happen on his behalf. His rehabilitation is completely his to own if he wants to get there.

Trammell (+27) finally cracked 20%, but he's entering the final third of his window of eligibility. I'm not a supporter, but a lot of people are, and I expect this small jump is both encouraging and discouraging, if that makes sense. Time is ticking....

McGriff's 21.5% return was a disappointment to me. It may be the "not a first-ballot man" effect. The 2011 ballot will tell us more. I support Crime Dog.

Mattingly (+23) got back all the votes he lost in 2009 (no returning candidate lost votes this year), but it's not really going to make any difference. He's got five ballots left and is still farting around in the ballot cellar.

Parker (+1) sees his candidacy expire next year. Murphy (+1) is in much the same boat, with three left. Baines (another +1) is buried even deeper; he got a new high in votes, percentage, and votes above relegation, but he's only got voters in Chicago backing him. Nothing to see here.

Of the rookie candidates, only the big four -- Alomar, Larkin, Martinez, and McGriff -- will be returning for the 2011 ballot. Everyone else, eleven candidates, missed the 5% cut. I don't have anything to add regarding Galarraga, Ventura, Burks, Karros, Appier, Hentgen, Jackson, Lankford, Reynolds, or Zeile. About Segui, I will mention just one point -- I thought his getting even one vote would count as a personal triumph, and damned if he didn't get that one vote. Congratulations are in order, I suppose, so there ya go, Segui.

A year from now, the 2011 ballot will have 14 returning candidates and some number of rookies. The leading new names will likely be headlined by Jeff Bagwell. Other names that may be included are Kevin Brown, Larry Walker, Juan Gonzalez, Tino Martinez, John Franco, and Benito Santiago. Finally, a greatly controversial candidate, Rafael Palmeiro, one of the biggest names yet to be suspended under MLB's PED policy. Will he get any voter love? I can't wait to find out.

The Hall's 2010 Veterans Committee Ballots -- The Results

The Hall today announced the results of the 2010 Veterans Committee ballots.

Congratulations to Doug Harvey and Whitey Herzog, worthy electees.


Managers & Umpires ballot (12 of 16, 75%, needed for election)

rank candidate......votes..percentage

1. Doug Harvey (u)* ...... 15 93.8% -- ELECTED
2. Whitey Herzog (m) ..... 14 87.5% -- ELECTED
3t. Danny Murtaugh (m)* ... 8 50.0%
3t. Hank O'Day (u) ........ 8 50.0%
5. Charlie Grimm (m)* ..... 3 18.8%
6t. Davey Johnson (m)* ... <3 ≤12.5%
6t. Tom Kelly (m) ........ <3 ≤12.5%
6t. Billy Martin (m) ..... <3 ≤12.5%
6t. Gene Mauch (m) ....... <3 ≤12.5%
6t. Steve O'Neill (m) .... <3 ≤12.5%

* Candidates for whom I would have voted.

Executives & Pioneers ballot (9 of 12, 75%, needed for election)

rank candidate....votes..percentage

1. John Fetzer ....... 8 66.7%
2t. Marvin Miller* ... 7 58.3%
2t. Jacob Ruppert* ... 7 58.3%
4. Ewing Kauffman* ... 6 50.0%
5t. Gene Autry ...... <3 ≤16.7%
5t. Sam Breadon ..... <3 ≤16.7%
5t. Bob Howsam ...... <3 ≤16.7%
5t. John McHale ..... <3 ≤16.7%
5t. Gabe Paul ....... <3 ≤16.7%
5t. Bill White ...... <3 ≤16.7%

* Candidates for whom I would have voted.

Post-mortem.

I'm pleased for Harvey, whom I supported, but only because many players have endorsed him for years.

I was not in support of Herzog, but expected he would get elected, and am pleased enough that he did. No objection here.

For most of the other candidates I supported -- Grimm, Johnson, Kauffman, Murtaugh, and Ruppert -- I'm not terribly disappointed. I never expected them all to get elected, and none of these results surprised me very much.

I am greatly surprised and expectantly disappointed by the return for Miller. Seven votes was far more than I though he'd collect, but it still wasn't good enough. It's possible that he gained four votes just from the new voters on the committee this time, but I think that's unlikely. More probable is that some of the opinions of the voters turned in his favor. If that happens again in the 2012 Executives voting cycle, he may finally get his overdue plaque -- and may not be here to enjoy it. Miller will turn 93 next year. Maybe the Hall's powers are waiting for him to be gone, so he won't get to give a speech which is probably mortally dreaded in baseball's corridors of power. Oh well... maybe next time. It was a good showing, at least.

Next year, the VC votes only on post-1942 debut players. Maybe it will finally be Santo's turn to shine through.

The BBWAA ballot results will be announced January 6, 2010.

The Hall's 2010 Writers Ballot -- Wrap-up

Convenient links, since reading the reviews in order is nicer than scrolling down and then back up and so on.

Candidates
Part 1 -- Alomar, Appier, Baines, Blyleven, Burks, Dawson, Galarraga, Hentgen, Jackson.
Part 2 -- Karros, Lankford, Larkin, Martinez, Mattingly, McGriff, McGwire, Morris, Murphy.
Part 3 -- Parker, Raines, Reynolds, Segui, Smith, Trammell, Ventura, Zeile.

Chipmaker's votes: Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, Martinez, McGriff, McGwire, Murphy, Raines, Smith.

Predictions

Alomar -- 50%.
Appier -- less than 10 votes, relegated.
Baines -- 5-6%, again.
Blyleven -- 69%. Dammit.
Burks -- relegated.
Dawson -- elected with 76%.
Galarraga -- relegated.
Hentgen -- less than 1%, relegated.
Jackson -- less than five votes, relegated.
Karros -- less than 2%, relegated.
Lankford -- a whisker over 5%. This is probably wrong.
Larkin -- 45%.
Martinez -- 30%.
Mattingly -- around 15%.
McGriff -- 40%.
McGwire -- 20-23% again.
Morris -- just over 50%.
Murphy -- 10-15%.
Parker -- 15-20%.
Raines -- around 40%. Probably a very high, wish-based prediction.
Reynolds -- one or zero votes, relegated.
Segui -- zero votes, relegated.
Smith -- 50%.
Trammell -- less than 20%, like always.
Ventura -- 10%.
Zeile -- less than 3%, relegated.

Voting results will be announced Wednesday, January 6, 2010, at 2:00 pm Eastern. Expect the announcement to post first on the Hall's website and the BBWAA's website, with perhaps a live cast on MLB Network.

The Hall's 2010 Writers Ballot -- The Candidates (part 3 of 3)

Concluding the review of this year's Hall candidates, #19-26.


19. Dave Parker (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 13.
Peak return: 24.5% (1998).
2009 return: 15.0%

Career: 19 seasons, 1973-91 -- *Pittsburgh Pirates 1973-83, Cincinnati Reds 1984-87, Oakland Athletics 1988-89, Milwaukee Brewers 1990, California Angels 1991, Toronto Blue Jays 1991.
Peak season: 1978 -- 30 HR, 117 RBI, 102 runs, 194 hits, 32 doubles, 12 triples, 20 stolen bases, .334/.394/.585, 166 OPS+, 134 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1975, 1977, 1979, 1985.
Primary position: right field, finished as a designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (four starts), 1978 NL MVP, 1979 All-Star MVP, three NL Gold Gloves for OF, three Silver Sluggers (two NL for OF, one AL for DH), two NL batting championships, led the NL in slugging twice, hits once, RBI once. Member of two World Series champions, the 1979 Pirates and the 1989 Athletics.

Great peak, but pedestrian outside of it. This is your adjusted OPS on drugs, youngsters. Playing clean does have its merits.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: Another 15-20% return. Parker has his proponents, but this candidacy is just whiling away until the 15 years expire, which will be soon.


20. Tim Raines (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 2.
Peak return: 24.3% (2008).
2009 return: 22.6%

Career: 23 seasons, 1979-99 & 2001-02 -- *Montréal Expos 1979-90 & 2001, Chicago White Sox 1991-95, New York Yankees 1996-98, Oakland Athletics 1999, Baltimore Orioles 2001, Florida Marlins 2002.
Peak season: 1987 -- 123 runs, 175 hits, 34 doubles, 18 HR, 68 RBI, 50 stolen bases (against five caught steals!), 90 walks, .330/.429/.526, 149 OPS+, 132 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1984, 1985, 1986, 1989, 1993.
Primary position: left field. Leadoff hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (two starts), 1987 All-Star MVP, one NL Silver Slugger for Outfield, one NL batting championship, led NL in on-base percentage once, runs twice, stolen bases four times. Career 84.7% stolen base success rate is the highest for anyone with 300+ SB; 808 career SB ranks fifth all-time. Member of the 1996 and 1998 World Series champion Yankees. Jersey #30 retired by the Expos.

Okay, voters, Rickey is in. Now, please, is it Rock's turn? The lowest on-base percentage he ever posted in a 100+ games played season was .350. Devastating player, eminently plaque-worthy.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: It's a flying leap of a hope, but I'd like to see Raines take a big jump, over 40%. If enough voters were quietly playing a "Rickey First" card, well, that's done, so let's get going.


21. Shane Reynolds (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 13 seasons, 1992-2004 -- *Houston Astros 1992-2002, Atlanta Braves 2003, Arizona Diamondbacks 2004.
Peak season: 1998 -- 19-8, 3.51, 3 complete games, 1 ShO, 233.1 IP, 209 K, 117 ERA+, 1.329 WHIP.
Other outstanding seasons: 1994, 1999. Not a lot to see here.
Primary position: right-handed starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: One All-Star selection. Led NL in games started twice.

Reynolds was a good pitcher, a little above league average at preventing baserunners and runs, but there is nothing exceptional in his career to even hint at Hall worthiness.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: If he gets one vote, it'll be a token sop from a Houston-area voter, much like Jim DeShaies got in 2001.


22. David Segui (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 15 seasons, 1990-2004 -- *Baltimore Orioles 1990-93 & 2001-04, New York Mets 1994-95, Montreal Expos 1995-97, Seattle Mariners 1998-99, Toronto Blue Jays 1999, Texas Rangers 2000, Cleveland Indians 2000.
Peak season: 2000 -- 19 HR, 103 RBI, .334/.388/.510, 93 runs, 193 hits, 42 doubles, 124 OPS+, 110 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1997, 1998, his partial 2001 season.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Second generation ballplayer; papa Diego Segui pitched for 15 seasons.

There's not much to say about Segui -- not much by way of Hall testimony, at least. The most noteworthy item about his career is that he has his own section in the Mitchell Report. And that is not the sort of thing which helps earn one the bronze plaque. Segui has publicly acknowledged using human growth hormone by prescription, and the Mitchell Report incriminates him as a steroids user.

Looking at his career stats, one must wonder two things -- how these PEDs were helping him, and why he's even on the ballot. Segui posted good OBPs and had some decent power, but he wasn't that much above league average, and as a first baseman, there had to be more expected of him that he didn't deliver. He also wasn't in the lineup enough -- only three seasons of 140 or more games played (peaking at 150), only eight of his 15 seasons with over 100 games. As a switch hitter, he wasn't subject to obvious platooning cutting into his playing time.

If one is conspiratorially minded, one might think Segui is on the ballot to show other, perhaps unidentified PED users what might happen to them if they get on the Hall ballot someday, because between an uninspiring career and admitted and alleged PED usage, I'll be impressed if Segui gets one vote. If the Hall wants to make an example of someone not named McGwire, here he is.

Chipmaker's vote: No -- and this has nothing to do with Segui's PED usage. Simply not a Hall-class career.

Prediction: Segui's candidacy gets clobbered with a resounding zero votes.


23. Lee Smith (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 7.
Peak return: 45.0% (2006).
2009 return: 44.5%

Career: 18 seasons, 1980-97 -- *Chicago Cubs 1980-87, Boston Red Sox 1988-90, St. Louis Cardinals 1990-93, New York Yankees 1993, Baltimore Orioles 1994, California Angels 1995-96, Cincinnati Reds 1996, Montréal Expos 1997.
Peak season: 1991 -- 6-3, 47 saves, 2.34, 67 K, 157 ERA+, 1.137 WHIP.
Other outstanding seasons: 1982, 1983, 1987, 1988, 1990, 1994.
Primary position: right-handed relief pitcher, primarily as a closer.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections, three Rolaids Relief Awards (two NL, one AL), led NL in saves three times and AL once. Held the career record for saves from 1993, when he passed Reardon, to 2006, when Hoffman caught up. Currently third in career saves.

I've been looking at Smith more closely than any other returning candidate, comparing him to HOF RPs Eckersley, Sutter, Gossage, Fingers -- and I've changed my mind. I've fence-sat before, conservatively deciding to be opposed to Smith for the Hall, but he stands up very well compared to the Hall relievers, so I've jumped over that fence. Elect Lee Arthur!

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: Gets 50%, and should have enough ballots remaining to make it.


24. Alan Trammell (playing record | 2009 ballot review)

Years on ballot: 8.
Peak return: 18.2% (2008).
2009 return: 17.4%

Career: 20 seasons, 1977-96 -- *Detroit Tigers all the way.
Peak season: 1987 -- 109 runs, 205 hits, 34 doubles, 28 HR, 105 RBI, 21 stolen bases (against 2 caught steals), .343/.402/.551, 155 OPS+, 137 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1983, 1984, 1988, 1990, 1993.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Six All-Star selections, 1984 World Series MVP, four AL Gold Gloves for Shortstop, three AL Silver Sluggers for Shortstop. Member of the 1984 World Series champion Tigers.

Baseball bonus points: Tram was manager of the Tigers for three seasons, 2003-05. His teams were not impressive, at least not in good ways. The 2003 team was a complete disaster, so bad that not all responsibility can be laid upon Trammell's head. But this doesn't help his Hall candidacy at all.

Trammell's career annoys me. Half of his seasons were really good, the other half were below average, and they're all mixed together, no significant clustering. I cannot support a half-great player, not this time. I'll still think about him, but the easy choice here is "no".

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: Another hum-drum below-20 percent.


25. Robin Ventura (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 16 seasons, 1989-2004 -- *Chicago White Sox 1989-98, New York Mets 1999-2001, New York Yankees 2002-03, Los Angeles Dodgers 2003-04.
Peak season: 1999 -- 32 HR, 120 RBI, .301/.379/.529, 88 runs, 177 hits, 38 doubles, 74 walks, 129 OPS+, 118 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1991, 1992, 1995, 1996.
Primary position: third base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Two All-Star selections. Six Gold Gloves (five AL, one NL) at 3B. Won the 1988 Golden Spikes Award as the outstanding amateur player in the nation.

Ventura was a very good player but at his best was never great -- not as a professional anyway. His collegiate career was the stuff of legend, including a 58-game hitting streak, but the Hall looks to the majors, the highest level of competition, for its honorees.

Three things do stand out about Ventura's career, worth reviewing.

1. He was very proficient at hitting grand slams, with a career total of eighteen, tied for fourth all-time. This included tying the major league record by hitting two in one game (White Sox 14 - @Rangers 5, 04-September-1995) and later hitting two in a doubleheader, one in each game (20-May-1999).

2. His most famous grand slam, however, is one he hit but never completed. In Game 5 of the 1999 NLCS, with his Mets trailing in the series 3-1 -- on the cusp of elimination -- and trailing the game, 3-2, in the bottom of the 15th, Ventura came up with the bases loaded and clobbered it, for an apparent game-winning slam. However, the Mets mobbed him in celebration after he rounded first base, and Ventura abandoned his attempt to circle the bases. Two Mets scored to win the game, 4-3, but Ventura was credited with a single. Too bad, as it would have been the first walk-off grand slam in major league postseason history.

3. In 1993, Ventura was plunked in the ribs by Nolan Ryan, who was in the home stretch of his career. Ventura, a 25-year-old stud, charged the mound. Ryan, a venerable 46, put the finishing touch on his take-no-shit reputation by snaring Ventura in a headlock and dogie-punching him in the head six times. It was over quickly, tempers cooled, Ventura was ejected and the game played on. It was an unusual event even for baseball, and the image of the ancient Ranger taking the young kid to school, literally the school of hard knocks, was indelible. What the heck was Ventura thinking?


Good player. Not Hall measure.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: Grabs 10%, stays on the ballot for a few years. I'm probably aiming high.


26. Todd Zeile (playing record)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 16 seasons, 1989-2004 -- *St. Louis Cardinals 1989-95, Chicago Cubs 1995, Philadelphia Phillies 1996, Baltimore Orioles 1996, Los Angeles Dodgers 1997-98, Florida Marlins 1998, Texas Rangers 1998-99, New York Mets 2000-01 & 2004, Colorado Rockies 2002, New York Yankees 2003, Montreal Expos 2003.
Peak season: 1997 -- 31 HR, 90 RBI, .268/.365/.459, 89 runs, 154 hits, 85 walks, 121 OPS+, 96 RC.
Other outstanding seasons: 1991, 1999, 2000 -- but don't look for too much in 'em.
Primary position: third base. Started out as a catcher. Played some first base along the way.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Played for eleven different major league franchises, one short of the record. Most career home runs by any player whose family name starts with "Z", surpassing Gus Zernial (237) in 2003.

Wow. Zeile was around for a long time, and didn't win anything -- no major awards, no minor awards, no leading the league in anything , not even an All-Star selection. This surprised me. He was a pretty good player, and such guys usually get one trip to the July celebration along the way. Zeile did not.

He was a good hitter in the postseason -- .292/.362/.460 in 29 games, 127 plate appearances. And he was durable, playing in 140+ games ten times, plus all of the 1994 season. But he never rose to greatness. The Hall is short on third basemen, but Zeile isn't going to be the next one added to the rolls.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: The voters didn't like 3B Matt Williams last year, and he had more homers. They're not going to give Zeile any more ballot love. Less than 3%, and relegated.


Summary. I support nine players for Hall election -- Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, Martinez, McGriff, McGwire, Murphy, Raines, and Smith.

If I could vote for only one, it would go to Blyleven.

I expect only Dawson will be elected this time. If any ballot rookie is elected, it will be Alomar.

Ballot results will be announced Wednesday, January 6, 2010.