The Hall's 2011 BBWAA ballot -- Candidate Wrap-up

Links to the candidate reviews, so you can read them without a lot of up-and-down scrolling:

Part 1: Alomar, Baerga, Bagwell, Baines, Blyleven, Boone, Brown, Franco.
Part 2: Gonzalez, Grissom, Harris, Higginson, Johnson, Larkin, Leiter, Edgar Martinez.
Part 3: Tino Martinez, Mattingly, McGriff, McGwire, Mondesi, Morris, Murphy, Olerud.
Part 4: Palmeiro, Parker, Raines, Rueter, Santiago, Smith, Surhoff, Trammell, Walker.

So far I have supported 13 candidates: Roberto Alomar, Jeff Bagwell, Bert Blyleven, Kevin Brown, John Franco, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Dale Murphy, Tim Raines, Lee Smith, and Larry Walker.

However, actual BBWAA voters are limited to ten names on their ballots, so I should do the same. Three names have to be cut.

I already noted that, should it come to this, Brown and Franco would be among the first to go. No worries here. Brown, I will acknowledge, does not have a "Hall feel" about him, despite his performances on the field. Franco, whom I hope stays on the ballot, right now has to queue up behind Smith for me. So they indeed are the first two to go.

Of the other 11, nine are returning candidates that I supported before, and I am loathe to surrender any one of them -- even Murphy, whom I recognize is a lost cause. Some are no-doubt names to me: Alomar, Blyleven, Larkin, Martinez, McGriff, and Raines. Smith I already changed my view on, to the positive, and I don't want to abandon him again. And, yes, I stand firmly with McGwire. That's nine, leaving only the two ballot rookies, Bagwell and Walker.

I cannot even consider abandoning Bagwell.

That leaves Walker. Sorry, Larry. I think you'll stick around on the ballot, you deserve that at least, and maybe there'll be room for you in my choices for 2012, or later.

Chipmaker's 2011 selections: Roberto Alomar, Jeff Bagwell, Bert Blyleven, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Dale Murphy, Tim Raines, Lee Smith.

Who will the BBWAA actually vote in? I'd put a dollar on the chances of Blyleven and Alomar. After them, Bagwell, though I think not this time (the hints and allegations being slung around about him are disgusting and cowardly), and Larkin.

Ballot returns will be announced on Wednesday, January 5, 2011.

The Hall's 2011 BBWAA ballot -- Candidates Review (part 4 of 4)

Concluding the review of the 2011 Hall ballot candidates...


25. Rafael Palmeiro (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 20 seasons, 1986-2005 -- Chicago Cubs 1986-88, *Texas Rangers 1989-93 & 1999-2003, Baltimore Orioles 1994-98 & 2004-05.
Peak season: 1993 -- 176 hits, 40 doubles, 37 HR, 105 RBI, 124 runs scored, .295 / .371 / .554, 150 OPS+, 7.4 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1991, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002.
Career WAR: 66.0.
Primary position: first baseman. He DH'd some in his older seasons, but that was his primary role only twice, 1999 and 2003.
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections (one start), two AL Silver Sluggers, three AL Gold Gloves for first base (though the one in 1999 was a bad joke, as he played only 28 games at 1B). Led league in hits once and runs scored once -- but he was in the top ten, and often the top five, in many categories in many seasons. Member of the 500 Home Run Club (569) and 3000 Hits Club (3020).

Mitchell Report: mentioned for having failed a steroids test (stanozolol was found in his system) in 2005, for which he was suspended for ten games. Named by Canseco as having been using under his supervision, possibly as early as 1992.

I'm listing the players in alphabetical order, but I thought I should mention that I saved Palmeiro for last in my evaluations. His candidacy brings all sorts of discussion with it.

Let's talk his playing merits first. Great hitter, excellent power even given hitter-friendly home parks, very good at taking a walk (and plate patience doesn't come from a bottle). If Palmeiro didn't have special circumstances about him, he'd be a first-ballot Hall honoree, and easily.

Alas, it's not easy here. Palmeiro testified before Congress in March 2005, emphatically stating that he had never used steroids -- and then, a few months later, MLB announced that he had failed a steroids test, the first major name so nailed. The sample had been taken in May, Palmeiro had gone through the defined appeals process, and in August he was suspended. When he returned, road crowds were harsh on him, he managed to poke two more hits, the Orioles told him to take the rest of the season off, and he was done. That's an ugly ending to any career.

I really don't care what happened or who did what prior to 2004, when the steroids ban went into effect. No rules means there's no rulebreaking -- and while primary responsibility for PED usage must always fall upon the players who chose to use, the entire culture around Major League Baseball was one of tacit permission. No one asked, no one told, no one wanted to know. The homers were flying, the turnstiles were spinning, the records were falling, most everyone was happy. If you were there, it was a blast watching, following, enjoying baseball. Until, finally, the government put the squeeze on Commissioner Selig and got him to take action, and a number of the players urged their union to cooperate. Whatever happened before 2004, for the most part, the players got away with nearly all of it.

The smart players read the tea leaves and left their steroids behind (or, perhaps, moved to newer, more elusive blends that had not yet been prohibited; getting sneakier is always an appealing option for some). Clearly, Palmeiro did not. He got caught; that he got caught after his bit of theater in Washington just twisted the irony knife all the more.

I'm the sort who can give the benefit of doubt rather easily. Not here. Palmeiro has been vocal, when inclined to speak, that he was caught due to tainted B12 vitamins injected by a teammate. Nice story, but holds water like a sieve. His subsequent actions say much more. If he had done anything to show credulity in his story -- sued Canseco for what he wrote in his book; offered up other samples of himself (blood or, in particular, hair, where traces can linger for months) for testing; offered to sign a 2006 contract for the major league minimum and be tested weekly to clear (or at least slightly polish) his name; maybe even had he, and here I'm stretching, paid some damn attention to what was being put into his body, which as a professional athlete is his single most valuable asset -- that would have helped. No; Palmeiro took his exile. What it adds up to is in sharp conflict with his story, no matter how he sticks to it. I cannot grant him credence, or absolution. He failed a test. He used, inadvertently (which if so was incredibly stupid of him) or deliberately, and after the ban was in place. Bad, bad decision. Here come the bad consequences.

As a player, I would like to support him. Maybe some other year, if he stays on the ballot, I will. Not this time. The writers, I have no doubt, will be playing the Roman Senate to Palmeiro's Caesar this time, their long knives sharpened and polished and at the ready; they've been waiting to spill steroid-laced blood -- McGwire until this past year had some doubt (and retired long before the ban) and Bonds is still two years away -- so Raffy is going to go down, and hard.

I hope he does stay on the ballot. The discussion alone might prove fruitful. His candidacy is toast, though.

Chipmaker's vote: No. Dammit, Palmeiro. Damn you for being such a nitwit.

Prediction: stays on the ballot, but well behind McGwire. Oh, 10%. I don't know, but it'll be a small return.


26. Dave Parker (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 15 (last chance with the BBWAA).
Peak return: 24.5% (1998).
2010 return: 15.2%

Career: 19 seasons, 1973-91 -- *Pittsburgh Pirates 1973-83, Cincinnati Reds 1984-87, Oakland Athletics 1988-89, Milwaukee Brewers 1990, California Angels 1991, Toronto Blue Jays 1991.
Peak season: 1978 -- 194 hits, 32 doubles, 12 triples, 30 HR, 117 RBI, 102 runs scored, 20 stolen bases, .334 / .394 / .585, 166 OPS+, 7.1 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1975, 1977, 1979, 1985.
Career WAR: 37.8.
Primary position: right field, finished as a designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (four starts), 1978 NL MVP, 1979 All-Star MVP, three NL Gold Gloves for OF, three Silver Sluggers (two NL for OF, one AL for DH). Led league in batting twice, slugging twice, hits once, RBI once. Member of two World Series champions, the 1979 Pirates and the 1989 Athletics.

Thought question: which is worse, taking an illegal drug in order to feel good, no matter that it destroys your on-field performance, or taking it to play better? Which one cheats the game more? Which cheats the fans more?

Parker had a chance to be a truly great one. His cocaine abuse prevented that from happening. After this year, he falls off the writers ballot, and while I have no doubts that he'll clog the Veterans Committee ballot whenever his chances arise, I don't think he'll get in. This candidacy should end here.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: gets a little bounce from this being his last time, but it matters little. 20%, and I'm being needlessly generous.


27. Tim Raines (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 4 (11 remaining).
Peak return: 30.4% (2010).
2010 return: 30.4%

Career: 23 seasons, 1979-99 & 2001-02 -- *Montréal Expos 1979-90 & 2001, Chicago White Sox 1991-95, New York Yankees 1996-98, Oakland Athletics 1999, Baltimore Orioles 2001, Florida Marlins 2002.
Peak season: 1987 -- 175 hits, 34 doubles, 8 triples, 18 HR, 68 RBI, 50 stolen bases (caught only five times), 90 walks, .330 / .429 / .526, 149 OPS+, 6.8 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1989, 1992, 1993.
Career WAR: 64.6.
Primary position: left field. Leadoff hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (two starts), 1987 All-Star MVP, one NL Silver Slugger. Led league in batting once, on-base percentage once, runs twice, stolen bases four times. Career 84.7% stolen base success rate is the highest for anyone with 300+ SB. 808 career SB ranks fifth all-time. Member of the 1996 and 1998 World Series champion Yankees. Jersey #30 retired by the Expos.

Raines is the second-best leadoff man in baseball history, behind Rickey Henderson. Being second to Rickey is no shame, because he makes for amazingly good company when ranking the greats. Raines was a great player, and deserves the plaque.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! And Rock is probably the very last chance to put an Expos cap on a plaque, though this is not why I support his candidacy.

Prediction: Increases to 39%. It's gonna take a while.


28. Kirk Rueter (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 13 seasons, 1993-2005 -- Montréal Expos 1993-96, *San Francisco Giants 1996-2005.
Peak season: 2002 -- 14-8, 3.23, 33 starts, 203.2 innings, 76 strikeouts, 120 ERA+, 1.267 WHIP, 2.6 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1993, 1997.
Career WAR: 12.1 (as a pitcher).
Primary position: starting pitcher (left handed).
Honoraria and claims to fame: started his career with a 10-0 record, which must count for something, and indicates just how uninspiring a Hall candidate Rueter is. Member of the 2002 NL champion Giants and the 1994 Montreal Expos, a team always worth remembering.

That line about how just being named on the ballot is an honor? It applies here to Rueter. He was a good pitcher, he won more than he lost, and it's always good to see another Montreal Expo make an appearance, as there are so few left. But cutting to the chase, Rueter is ballot filler, and we won't see him again.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: one vote. Maybe.


29. Benito Santiago (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 20 seasons, 1986-2005 -- *San Diego Padres 1986-92, Florida Marlins 1993-94, Cincinnati Reds 1995 & 2000, Philadelphia Phillies 1996, Toronto Blue Jays 1997-98, Chicago Cubs 1999, San Francisco Giants 2001-03, Kansas City Royals 2004, Pittsburgh Pirates 2005.
Peak season: 1996 -- 127 hits, 21 doubles, 30 HR, 85 RBI, 71 runs scored, .264 / .332 / .503, 117 OPS+, 2.8 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1987, 1988, 1990, 1991, 2002. This is being generous.
Career WAR: 23.8.
Primary position: catcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections (three starts), 1987 NL Rookie Of The Year Award, three NL Gold Gloves for catcher, four NL Silver Sluggers, 2002 NLCS MVP. Led league in assists by a catcher three times, caught steals once, caught stealing percentage once. Member of the 2002 NL champion Giants.

Mitchell Report: Named by Greg Anderson as a player whom he supplied with "cream" and "clear", since known to be, and defined as, anabolic androgenic steroids. Santiago acknowledged in grand jury testimony that he had used performance enhancing drugs, though his lawyer claimed Santiago did not know what they were. That's pretty much what Barry Bonds has claimed, but since Bonds is far and away the biggest fish in the BALCO scandal, no one much cares that Santiago was right there too. Hey, it wasn't Benito hitting all those home runs. (It really annoys me that people, particularly those most interested in blood, don't really want to punish all PED users. They just want to punish the ones who appeared to get the most benefit. It's like if two students cheated identically on a test, and one got an A, and the other a D, no one gives a toss about the kid who got the D. It becomes not about the offense, but about the magnitude. While I recognize the value in "making an example of someone" and doing so effectively, I don't fully agree with that approach.) Also has his own section in the Mitchell Report, starting on p. 134, but it mostly discusses syringes found in his locker, though there is a mention of human growth hormone as well.

How to extend your major league career:
1. Be a catcher, because other than left-handed relievers, there is no position that gets more additional chances (and, more to the point, contract offers). There's always a space for a backup catcher. You won't make the big money, but you'll have a job.
2. Win a ROY award. It indicates that, at least once upon a time, you had some real promise. This alone will get you five last-chance seasons in the majors, if you have anything left in your tank.
3. Use PEDs, apparently.

Santiago hit the trifecta. It kept him in the big leagues for 20 years, and that's impressive, because he couldn't hit anything else. He'd smack some doubles and some homers, but he never walked, was rarely above league-average over a season, and even when he was he wasn't much above average. (His 1996 season saw career highs with 30 homers, 49 walks, and a 117 OPS+. Career second-bests: 18 HR, 37 walks, and (in a full season) 111 OPS+.) By Nichols' Law of Catcher Defense, any catcher who cannot hit automatically gains a sterling defensive reputation, deserved or not. Santiago had it; a team needs someone behind the plate, and will endure a weak bat in exchange for the man willing to strap on the tools of ignorance and be at least competent at calling a game and blocking pitches in the dirt. It got him two decades in the majors, and that's rare. The Hall ballot is his last hurrah.

Chipmaker's vote: No. Nothing to do with PEDs, where he surely looks red-handed, because they did nothing for his playing stats, though just on endurance it might have given him a few extra seasons. Playing catcher is tough; most wear out long before age 40.

Prediction: 4% and relegated. No voter's ballot review will bother mentioning the Mitchell Report material, because no one cares enough.


30. Lee Smith (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 9 (six remaining).
Peak return: 47.3% (2010).
2010 return: 47.3%

Career: 18 seasons, 1980-97 -- *Chicago Cubs 1980-87, Boston Red Sox 1988-90, St. Louis Cardinals 1990-93, New York Yankees 1993, Baltimore Orioles 1994, California Angels 1995-96, Cincinnati Reds 1996, Montréal Expos 1997.
Peak season: 1991 -- 6-3, 47 saves, 2.34, 67 K, 157 ERA+, 1.137 WHIP, 2.6 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1982, 1983, 1985, 1986, 1987, 1988, 1990, 1994.
Career WAR: 30.3 (as a pitcher).
Primary position: relief pitcher (right handed), primarily a closer.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections, three Rolaids Relief Awards (two NL, one AL). Led league in saves four times. Held the career record for saves from 1993 to 2006; currently third all-time.

I changed my position on Smith last year, and decided to support him, as he is easily comparable to the relievers already in the Hall and, yeah, he was a damn good closer in his own right. He did his job very well and did it for a very long time. So I'm still in his camp, and don't anticipate abandoning his candidacy.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: cracks 50%, but it's gonna be a slog to get Smith inducted.


31. B.J. Surhoff (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 19 seasons, 1987-2005 -- *Milwaukee Brewers 1987-95, Baltimore Orioles 1996-2000 & 2003-05, Atlanta Braves 2000-02.
Peak season: 1999 -- 207 hits, 38 doubles, 28 HR, 107 RBI, 104 runs scored, .308 / .347 / .492, 115 OPS+, 4.4 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1996, 1997.
Career WAR: 34.4.
Primary position: catcher in his younger seasons, left fielder later. Played third base for a couple of seasons.
Honoraria and claims to fame: one All-Star selection. Led league in games played once, assists by a catcher once, assists by a left fielder twice.

Surhoff didn't hit much when he was a catcher, and though he did better when he moved to the outfield, he didn't hit well enough to be considered elite at that position. Not the sort of player who would be a major contributor to a champion team. Not a bad player, no one lasts 19 seasons by mistake or serendipity, he was useful to have. But there's nothing in his career that proclaims greatness.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: 2% and relegated. If Murphy cannot get bonus points for being a nice guy, Surhoff's got no chance.


32. Alan Trammell (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 10 (five remaining).
Peak return: 22.5% (2010).
2010 return: 22.5%

Career: 20 seasons, 1977-96 -- *Detroit Tigers all the while.
Peak season: 1987 -- 205 hits, 34 doubles, 28 HR, 105 RBI, 109 runs scored, 21 stolen bases (against 2 caught steals), .343 / .402 / .551, 155 OPS+, 8.4 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1993.
Career WAR: 66.9.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Six All-Star selections, 1984 World Series MVP, four AL Gold Gloves, three AL Silver Sluggers. Member of the 1984 World Series champion Tigers.

Baseball bonus points: Trammell was manager of the Tigers for three seasons, 2003-05. The 2003 team was, of course, an utter disaster. That cannot possibly be all Trammell's responsibility, but this part of his career does nothing to help his Hall candidacy.

Trammell continues to annoy me. His candidacy gets a bit tarnished by his contemporaries, Ripken and Smith, who were both brilliant at one side of the game (Cal, offense) or the other (Ozzie, D). Trammell fits in the middle -- and now Larkin is on the ballot, also a middle-grounder, but clearly a better player. Trammell just has a hard time shining through.

But I haven't supported him before and, to take the easy way out, I won't support him again... though I wavered more than usual this year. Maybe 2012. It's not looking good anyway -- the writers are showing him little love, and his runway is getting really short.

Chipmaker's vote: No. But I might cave next time.

Prediction: uptick to 25%, but little reason for genuine hope.


33. Larry Walker (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 17 seasons, 1989-2005 -- Montreal Expos 1989-94, *Colorado Rockies 1995-2004, St. Louis Cardinals 2004-05.
Peak season: 1997 -- 208 hits, 46 doubles, 49 HR, 130 RBI, 143 runs scored, 409 total bases, .366 / .452 /.720, 178 OPS+, 9.0 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 1993, 1994, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2002.
Career WAR: 67.3.
Primary position: right fielder.
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections (four starts), 1997 NL MVP Award, seven NL Gold Gloves, three NL Silver Sluggers. Led league in batting three times, on-base percentage twice, slugging twice, doubles once, HR once, assists by a right fielder three times. Member of the 2004 NL champion Cardinals, and hit the only two homers St. Louis had against Boston in the World Series.

Ah, here it is at last -- the first real test of Coors Field versus the Hall Of Fame voters. Larry Walker, superstar slugging right fielder in the offensive paradise of Denver. Was he really all that? Let's take a look at his career, minus his games in the Mile High City (he played a few games as a visitor before joining the Rockies).

Walker in Denver: 604 games, 2163 at-bats, 823 hits, 181 doubles, 32 triples, 155 HR, .380 batting, .461 on-base, .709 slugging.

Walker elsewhere: 1384 games, 4744 at-bats, 1337 hits, 290 doubles, 30 triples, 228 HR, .282 batting, .372 on-base, .500 slugging.

Yes, the thin air helps everyone, Walker included. But check out that second line -- .372 OBP, .500 SLG, .872 OPS is pretty darn good. Here's some HOFers who played after WWII who had an OPS in the .850-.900 range, in increasing order: Billy Williams (.853), Jim Rice, Al Kaline, George Brett, Monte Irvin, Wade Boggs, Roy Campanella, Larry Doby, Jackie Robinson, Harmon Killebrew, Eddie Mathews, Willie McCovey (.889), Willie Stargell (.889). Walker outside of Denver looks, in this one perspective, to have been Hall-class.

Baseball Reference provides adjusted OPS, which includes adjusting for a player's home park. Here's Walker's OPS+ numbers for his Rockies seasons: 130, 116, 178 (his MVP year), 158, 163, 110, 160, 150, 121, 166 (partial season, traded to St. Louis). Geez, could this guy hit. And he was good in the field too.

And in Denver? OPS of 1.169. Sure, the air helped, but it helped Walker like few others -- or, more to the point, he took better advantage of it than just about anyone else.

His career OPS, .965, sits near post-war HOFers like Willie Mays (.941), Ralph Kiner (.946), Mickey Mantle (.977), and Stan Musial (.978). Walker's numbers might not be putting him in this elite class qualitatively, but he certainly was a great player. And I have a hard time denying great players.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! This man was not merely a product of the rarefied air.

Prediction: Gets 25% to start. It'll climb. He'll probably make it. But it's probably going to take a Blyleven-type campaign to do it.



From these final nine candidates: Raines, Smith, Walker. And that makes for 13 candidates, too many. A short wrap-up post to follow, where I cut down my virtual ballot to ten names.

The Hall's 2011 BBWAA ballot -- Candidates Review (part 3 of 4)

Continuing with the 2011 Hall ballot candidates...

17. Tino Martinez (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 16 seasons, 19902-2005 -- Seattle Mariners 1990-95, *New York Yankees 1996-2001 & 2005, St. Louis Cardinals 2002-03, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 2004.
Peak season: 1997 -- 176 hits, 31 doubles, 44 HR, 141 RBI, 96 runs scored, .296 / .371 / .577, 143 OPS+, 5.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1998.
Career WAR: 25.7.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections (one start), one AL Silver Slugger. Member of the Yankees during their recent 1996-2001 dynasty, when they won five AL pennants and four World Series championships.

Martinez was a good first baseman -- hit well, did okay on defense. But he wasn't a great one. He helped the Yankees win -- and did contribute more than the next guy on this list, whom he had to replace, and although he played well he could never supplant the image and aura Mattingly had -- but they would have won with another first baseman. Good, pleasantly consistent, but not great.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: hangs around with Mattingly and Murphy in the 10-20% zone for a while. Yankees who played on championship teams tend to get undying support.


18. Don Mattingly (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 11th (four remaining).
Peak return: 28.2% (2001).
2010 return: 16.1%

Career: 14 seasons, 1982-95 -- all with the *New York Yankees.
Peak season: 1986 -- 238 hits, 53 doubles, 31 HR, 113 RBI, 117 runs scored, .352 / .394 / .573, 161 OPS+, 6.9 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1984, 1985, 1987, 1988, 1989.
Career WAR: 39.8.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections (one start), 1985 AL MVP, nine AL Gold Gloves at 1B, three AL Silver Sluggers at 1B, 1984 AL batting champion. Led league in slugging once, hits twice, doubles three times, RBI once. Set the major league single season record for grand slams with six in 1987. Tied the ML record for consecutive games with a home run, with eight. Jersey #23 retired by the Yankees.

Four brilliant years, two more good years, and then he was around league average for the rest of his career. It neatly splits in half, much like Koufax's does, but whereas Sandy was pedestrian in the first half and then soared to the heights -- and left while riding high, leaving fans to wonder what more he could have done -- Donnie went from high to low, and we knew we'd seen what there was to see. It's still not enough.

Take hope, Mattingly fans. He's now the Dodgers manager, and maybe -- no way to predict reliably, but maybe -- that position will eventually lead him to Cooperstown. While he'd look good on a plaque, Yankees fans would blow a collective gasket seeing him with an "LA" adorning his cap instead of the familiar "NY".

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: just another return in high teens. Nothing to see here.


19. Fred McGriff (career stats | reviewed on 2010 ballot)

Year on ballot: 2nd (13 remaining).
Peak return: 21.5% (2010).
2010 return: 21.5%

Career: 19 seasons, 1986-2004 -- Toronto Blue Jays 1986-90, San Diego Padres 1991-93, *Atlanta Braves 1993-97, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 1998-2001 & 2004, Chicago Cubs 2001-02, Los Angeles Dodgers 2003.
Peak season: 1992 -- 152 hits, 30 doubles, 35 HR, 104 RBI, 79 runs scored, 96 walks, .286 / .394 / .556, 166 OPS+, 5.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1999, 2001.
Career WAR: 50.5.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Five All-Star selections (three starts), three Silver Sluggers (one AL, two NL) for 1B, led both leagues in HR once each. 1994 All-Star MVP. Member of the 1995 World Series champion Braves.

Damn good hitter, and for a long time. McGriff was also preternaturally durable -- from 1988 through 1998, he never played fewer than 151 games (except, of course, the two strike seasons, and there he was in 113 of 114 in '94 and the full 144 in '95) -- and when his streak ended in '99, he played in 144 games, and then followed this with 158, 146, and 146. That's the sort of reliability that managers love being able to count on. He wasn't flashy or loud, but he was often among the league leaders in power and was a big part of some of the Atlanta division-winning dynasty teams. I liked him then and I like him now.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: man, was his 2010 return disappointing. Let's see him jump to 28%.


20. Mark McGwire (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 5th (ten remaining).
Peak return: 23.7% (2010).
2010 return: 23.7%

Career: 16 seasons, 1986-2001 -- *Oakland Athletics 1986-97, St. Louis Cardinals 1997-2001.
Peak season: 1998 -- 152 hits, 21 doubles, 70 HR, 147 RBI, 130 runs, 162 walks (then an NL record), .299 / .470 / .752, 216 OPS+, 7.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, and 2000 even though he played only 89 games.
Career WAR: 63.1.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 12 All-Star selections (six starts), 1987 AL ROY, one AL Gold Glove at 1B, three Silver Sluggers (one AL, two NL) at 1B. Led league in on-base percentage twice, slugging four times, home runs four times, RBI once, walks twice. Rookie record 49 HR. Record 70 HR in 1998, since surpassed once. Member of the 1989 World Series champion Athletics. Member of the 500 Home Runs Club (583 career).

Mitchell Report: mentioned as having used androstenedione (legal and MLB permitted at the time) in 1998, and that Canseco named Mac as a teammate whom he introduced to steroids. But this matters little now, since McGwire has given his public testimony that yes, he used steroids.

The public got their pound of flesh back in January, when McGwire broke the story that he indeed had used steroids during his playing career. Having tasted the blood they craved, the media and public immediately demanded another 99 pounds more, because he didn't get misty-eyed enough or give the steroids full credit for his power or, or, or something. The point to take away from that, unfortunately, is that no amount of confession and contrition will ever be enough, at least for some people.

I'm not one of those people. I didn't care what Mac did then and don't now, because there was no prohibition and certainly no policing. He got himself healthy, and he hit, hit with power, got on base. Those are all key skills to playing baseball, and he did them at an exceedingly high level -- and strike zone discipline doesn't come from a bottle. Even if we estimate a "steroids penalty" he still would have been a league-leading monster at the plate. Greatness shines through, and McGwire had it. I've supported him before and still do, but have no firm idea how the writers will respond -- will some few forgive and vote for him? Or take further petty vengeance and Mac loses votes? He's not going to get in this year, possibly not ever, but the last card in McGwire's candidacy has been laid on the table, so here's where it gets interesting.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: [shrug]. He's held steady in the low 20% range. Goes up? Goes down? I'll play it safe and say he holds steady at 23%.


21. Raul Mondesi (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 13 seasons, 1993-2005 -- *Los Angeles Dodgers 1993-99, Toronto Blue Jays 2000-02, New York Yankees 2002-03, Arizona Diamondbacks 2003, Pittsburgh Pirates 2004, Anaheim Angels 2004, Atlanta Braves 2005.
Peak season: 1997 -- 191 hits, 42 doubles, 30 HR, 87 RBI, 95 runs scored, .310 / .360 / .541, 140 OPS+, 508 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1996.
Career WAR: 27.2.
Primary position: right fielder.
Honoraria and claims to fame: one All-Star selection, 1994 NL Rookie Of The Year Award, two NL Gold Gloves for outfield. Led league in putouts by a right fielder twice, assists by a right fielder three times.

Mondesi was a good player, but not a great one. Good power, not great -- partly that was a product of the times, the powerball 1990s, when 30 dingers wasn't close to being in the league's top ten. He never drove in 100 runs (did have 99 RBI once), but the way everyone else was hitting, maybe the runners were being mopped up by the rest of the lineup. His arm was good enough to play right, and that's valuable, but Mondesi's hitting flatlined after his one big season at age 26 -- didn't get better, didn't get meaningfully worse, just stayed there -- and he quickly crumbled after age 32, getting released (amazingly quietly; I remember having to search widely on the web to find a months-old note about the Braves making a transaction; he essentially vanished) at 34. Not a Hall-class player.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: one and gone. One vote, maybe.


22. Jack Morris (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 12th (three remaining).
Peak return: 52.3% (2010).
2010 return: 52.3%

Career: 18 seasons, 1977-94 -- *Detroit Tigers 1977-90, Minnesota Twins 1991, Toronto Blue Jays 1992-93, Cleveland Indians 1994.
Peak season: 1986 -- 21-8, 3.27, 35 starts, 15 CG, 6 ShO, 267.0 innings, 223 K, 127 ERA+, 4.7 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1979, 1981, 1985, 1987, 1991, 1992.
Career WAR: 39.3 (as a pitcher).
Primary position: starting pitcher (right handed).
Honoraria and claims to fame: five All-Star selections (three starts), 1991 World Series MVP. Led league in wins twice, strikeouts once, shutouts once, innings pitched once, complete games once. Pitched a no-hitter in 1984. Member of three World Series champion teams, the 1984 Tigers, the 1991 Twins, and the 1992 Blue Jays. A good postseason pitcher, going 7-4, 3.80 in 13 games, 92.1 IP, with one legendary night.

The greatness is there if the viewer wants to see it. I don't see it. Good seasons, some very good seasons, but very little genuine greatness.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: jumps to 55%. Still got a long way to go and a short time to get there.


23. Dale Murphy (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 13th (two remaining).
Peak return: 23.2% (2000).
2010 return: 11.7%

Career: 18 seasons, 1976-93 -- *Atlanta Braves 1976-90, Philadelphia Phillies 1990-92, Colorado Rockies 1993.
Peak season: 1983 -- 178 hits, 24 doubles, 36 HR, 121 RBI, 131 runs scored, 30 stolen bases, 90 walks, .302 / .393 / .540, 149 OPS+, 7.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1980, 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987.
Career WAR: 44.2.
Primary position: center field, right field when he got older.
Honoraria and claims to fame: seven All-Star selections (five starts), 1982 and 1983 NL MVP Awards, five NL Gold Gloves for outfield, four NL Silver Sluggers for outfield. Led league in slugging twice, runs scored once, home runs twice, RBI twice, walks once. Jersey #3 retired by the Braves.

Well, the writers elected Dawson. Why not Murphy?

I'm not actually making that argument, I don't like the "player A got in, so why not player B?" approach, but here it needed to be said, just to think about. Murf had an excellent, extended peak -- eight seasons, six of them worthy of building a Hall case. I've supported him all this time and I'll continue doing so, but I recognize it's not going to happen here. I don't know why Murphy gets so little support among the voters, but with 4/5 of his candidacy window gone, it's a lost cause, just ticking along until expiry.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! Like always.

Prediction: 12%, because that's about where he always lands.


24. John Olerud (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 17 seasons, 1989-2005 -- *Toronto Blue Jays 1989-96, New York Mets 1997-99, Seattle Mariners 2000-04, New York Yankees 2004, Boston Red Sox 2005.
Peak season: 1993 -- 200 hits, 54 doubles, 24 HR, 107 RBI, 109 runs scored, 114 walks, .363 / .473 / .599, 186 OPS+, 8.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1997, especially 1998, 1999, 2001, 2002.
Career WAR: 56.8.
Primary position: first base.
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections (both starts), three AL Gold Gloves for first base. Led league in batting average once (staying above .400 into August), on-base percentage once, doubles once, assists by a first baseman three times. Member of the 1992 and 1993 World Series champion Blue Jays.

Two curiosities about Olerud and his playing career. One, he was well-known for wearing his helmet while playing defense, due to a head injury risk from his college days, but he became so accustomed to it that he continued wearing the helmet after doctors cleared him to play without it. Two, he never played in the minor leagues until his final season, 2005, when the Red Sox had him play three games at AAA level as a brief tune-up to joining the big team.

Olerud was a very good and reliable player, getting into 150+ games in eight seasons. He got on base, he had some power, he played good defense. Eight of his teams saw postseason action. But no first baseman is ever going to earn the plaque with his defense, and while Olerud was a good hitter, he was not a great one outside of his two best seasons (1993 & '98). There should have been, somewhere in there, a step forward that stuck, elevated his game a level. Didn't happen. It's nice to think back on Olerud's career, he was fun to watch and the helmet gave him visible distinction, but he wasn't Hall level but briefly.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: hangs around with Mattingly in the low tens range, 11%.


Of these eight candidates: McGriff, McGwire, Murphy. That makes ten, and there's still a quarter of the ballot to go and I know I like some of the remaining names.

The Hall's 2011 BBWAA ballot -- Candidates Review (part 2 of 4)

Continuing with the 2011 ballot candidates....


9. Juan Gonzalez (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 17 seasons, 1989-2005 -- *Texas Rangers 1989-99 & 2002-03, Detroit Tigers 2000, Cleveland Indians 2001 & 2005, Kansas City Royals 2004.
Peak season: 1993 -- 166 hits, 33 doubles, 46 HR, 118 RBI, 105 runs scored, .310 / .368 / .632, 169 OPS+, 6.7 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2001.
Career WAR: 33.5.
Primary position: right fielder. Lots of fans remember him as a DH, and he certainly was no asset with the glove, but he didn't DH that much -- only 370 games out of nearly 1700 in his career.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (two starts), two AL MVP Awards (1996 and 1998), six AL Silver Sluggers. Led league in home runs twice, doubles once, RBI once. Member of the Rangers' first three postseason teams ever (1996, '98, '99), and while each ended in a Division Series defeat to the Yankees, Gonzalez saved team face by being pretty much the only Texas batter who did anything at all in the ten total games.

Mitchell Report: A bag belonging to one of Gonzalez's trainers was seized at Canadian customs (his team was heading to Toronto) with steroids inside.

Juan Gone was fun to watch, because he could hit. He couldn't -- hell, he wouldn't -- take a walk and his defense was adequate at best, but he sure could hit. And slug. From 1993 through 2001, his posted a season batting average below .289 only once -- that was 1994, which was also the only time in that span he slugged below .500. When he was in the lineup, he made big things happen.

Unfortunately he wasn't always in the lineup, with only two seasons of 150+ games played. He always had nagging injuries, little things (or sometimes big things) like pulled muscles, probably related to his obsessive weight training regimen. The Rangers traded him to Detroit after the '99 season, and while I was sorry to see him go, these things happen. He had an okay season with the Tigers, turned down a massive contract offer, and went to Cleveland where he showed a lot of his younger self -- power, average, refusal to stand there waiting for ball four. It seemed like he still had something left -- but then he came back to the Rangers and fell to pieces, two seasons totaling 152 games. Good enough when he played, but he didn't play enough, much too injured. A train wreck in KC and a bad joke ending -- one at-bat for the 2005 Indians -- and he was done. He poked about for another year in independent ball, but it was over -- and Gonzalez is only a month older than Griffey. It was a long, slow, but inexorable slide down the mountain and into the ocean, just dismal. If he'd stayed healthy, he could have hit 600 home runs. We got to see only 434 of those.

Sigh. I so enjoyed watching Gonzalez hit. If he had had anything more to his career -- plate patience, a decent glove and arm, a longer and more graceful (wouldn't have taken much) tail to his career, I'd feel that much better about his candidacy. Regards the possible steroid usage -- yeah, probably so, but if he was using after 2001 they were doing more harm than good, because he couldn't stay healthy at all. What is in the Mitchell Report doesn't disqualify Gonzalez in my view; his career, with the significant shortcomings and the messy ending, does that. Home runs and power are great assets, but not enough by themselves, not for the honor of the Hall.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: stays on the ballot, but not by much -- ends up with Palmeiro as his percentage neighbor, around 12%.


10. Marquis Grissom (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 17 seasons, 1989-2005 -- *Montreal Expos 1989-94, Atlanta Braves 1995-96, Cleveland Indians 1997, Milwaukee Brewers 1998-2000, Los Angeles Dodgers 2001-02, San Francisco Giants 2003-05.
Peak season: 1992 -- 180 hits, 39 doubles, 14 HR, 66 RBI, 78 stolen bases, 99 runs scored, .276 / .322 / .418, 110 OPS+, 5.6 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1993, 1994, 1996, 2002.
Career WAR: 25.6.
Primary position: center fielder.
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections (one start), 1997 ALCS MVP, four NL Gold Gloves. Led league in stolen bases twice, center field putouts once, center field assists twice. Had zero errors in 2001, 123 games, 233 chances. Member of the 1995 World Series champion and 1996 NL champion Braves and the 1997 AL champion Indians, and not many guys get to play in the World Series three years in a row with two different teams, so that must have been nice.

Grissom was a very good player -- not with his bat, which was league average most of the time, but with his glove he was excellent. He was durable, too -- from 1991 through 2000, he never played fewer than 139 games (except the short 1994 season, when he played in 110 of Montreal's 114). His range factor was typically above, sometimes well above, the league average. Good arm. And he could hit some -- Grissom was mostly a singles hitter, but he could rattle some doubles and poke a few homers every year, though he slugged over .450 only four times.

Grissom was an amazing base stealer in his youth, as well, twice leading the NL with 76 and 78 thefts, nabbing 53 another time. His speed faded after 1995, but for a while he was brilliant.

And, though no postseason glory attaches, he was a member of the amazing 1994 Expos, a team that was likely destined for a World Series, possibly a championship -- and speculating on what might have happened, had that been the case, is a long story for another time. (Worth noting, two other teammates, Walker and Rueter, are on this ballot.) Grissom was a key part of that squad, and that should be remembered and acknowledged.

Very good player, but that's the most we can say of him.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: I hope he stays on the ballot, but I fear he won't -- 3% and relegated.


11. Lenny Harris (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 18 seasons, 1988-2005 -- Cincinnati Reds 1988-89 & '94-98, *Los Angeles Dodgers 1989-93, New York Mets 1998 & 2000-01, Colorado Rockies 1999, Arizona Diamondbacks 1999, Milwaukee Brewers 2002, Chicago Cubs 2003, Florida Marlins 2003-05.
Peak season: 1990 -- 131 hits, 16 doubles, 4 triples, 2 HR, 29 RBI, 61 runs scored, .304/.348/.374, 15 stolen bases, 101 OPS+, 2.8 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1991, 2000 -- and we're really stretching here.
Career WAR: -0.9 (1.8 batting, -2.7 defense).
Primary position: When he took the field, it was at third base, or maybe second base, right field, or left field. But Harris' primary role was as a pinch-hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Holds the major league record for most pinch-hits in a career, with 212. Also holds associated PH records -- most PH AB in a career, most games PH in during a career, most games PH in a season. You get the idea.

Harris was a pinch-hitter. Of his 1903 career major league games, he started 770, just over 40%. All the others saw him enter as a substitute, and usually as a pinch-hitter. That was his job. He was pretty good at it, certainly not great, but he wasn't very good at much of anything else -- he didn't keep a starting job -- so this is what there is to consider.

Pinch-hitting is not like designated hitting. The DH is a starting position, and the best ones can keep on doing it, and doing it well, for a long time. Pinch hitting regularly is for those who can't cut it doing anything else. Or maybe they're buds with the manager, or something. The pinch hitter takes over for a guy who needs a rest, or has a short-term injury, or needs to get up there when the pitcher's slot is due at the plate.

I'm okay with DHs getting in the Hall, and relief pitchers. Those are specialty roles, but established ones. Pinch hitting, however, is for guys who can cause a bit of trouble for the opponents but cannot sustain it. I can't really see it happening, but perhaps some day a great pinch hitter will earn the plaque. Harris, however, will not be that man.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: two votes, relegated.


12. Bobby Higginson (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 11 seasons, 1995-2005 -- all with the *Detroit Tigers.
Peak season: 2000 -- 179 hits, 44 doubles, 30 HR, 102 RBI, 104 runs scored, .300 / .377 / .538, 134 OPS+, 4.6 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1996, 1997, 2001.
Career WAR: 21.4.
Primary position: left fielder and right fielder.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Played his entire career with only one team, which is held in some esteem by fans and writers. Led the league in putouts by a left fielder twice, and in assists by a left fielder four times and by a right fielder twice, so that's uncommon. Not a lot to mine here.

Higginson was a good player -- good hitter, pretty good fielder. Was the primary RF for the 2003 Tigers, one of the worst train-wreck teams of all time, so he must have a pretty high tolerance for pain and suffering. Unfortunately "good" is all we can say about him, there's nothing great here. Alas, he tailed off quickly after age 30, done after a cameo appearance (10 games) in 2005, and so was not around when the Kitties finally grabbed an October golden ticket again in 2006. A nice player to remember, but the Hall ballot is his last stop.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: one vote, because every candidate should get at least one vote. (Of course, many do not.)


13. Charles Johnson (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 12 seasons, 1994-2005 -- *Florida Marlins 1994-98 & 2001-02, Los Angeles Dodgers 1998, Baltimore Orioles 1999-2000, Chicago White Sox 2000, Colorado Rockies 2003-04, Tampa Bay Devil Rays 2005.
Peak season: 1997 -- 104 hits, 26 doubles, 19 HR, 63 RBI, .250/.347/.454, 43 runs, 113 OPS+, 4.4 WAR (2.5 batting, 1.9 defense).
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1999, 2000.
Career WAR: 22.0 (about 1/3 of that, 7.1, for defense).
Primary position: catcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections, four NL Gold Gloves for catcher (consecutive). Led league in caught steals once, fielding percentage for a catcher twice. Member of the 1997 World Series champion Marlins.

Not a very long career, but a pretty good one as catchers go. It's a tough position that exacts a harsh physical toll -- several nagging injuries and the general punishment that catchers take limited his playing time, only twice exceeding 130 games in a season (and peaking at 135). Johnson could hit a bit and take a walk, all to the good, but his ticket to the big leagues was his glove and defensive prowess. And here, he shone, while the vigor of youth allowed him. He wore down before age 30 and quickly wore out after, sputtering to an end at 33. But he never gave up being a catcher, strapping on the tools of ignorance to the last. Baseball is a tough game. Johnson gave it all he had and all he could. A player worth recalling -- but not a Hall of Famer.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: won't stay on the ballot, 2% and gone. Ah well.


14. Barry Larkin (career stats | reviewed on 2010 ballot)

Year on ballot: 2nd (13 remaining).
Peak return: 51.6% (2010).
2010 return: 51.6%.

Career: 19 seasons, 1986-2004 -- *Cincinnati Reds the whole time.
Peak season: 1996 -- 33 HR, 89 RBI, .298/.410/.567, 117 runs, 32 doubles, 36 stolen bases, 154 OPS+, 7.4 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999.
Career WAR: 68.9.
Primary position: shortstop.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Twelve All-Star selections (five starts), 1995 NL MVP, three NL Gold Gloves for shortstop, nine NL Silver Sluggers for shortstop. Ranks in the Top Five in many Reds franchise hitting records, including second in hits and doubles (behind Pete Rose). Member of the 1990 World Series champion Reds.

Larkin fell smack between the peaks of two different shortstop groups -- Ripken, Smith, and Trammell before him, and the troika of Garciaparra, Jeter, and Rodriguez after. So he never had a chance to grab the spotlight for but the briefest of spans; he's easy to overlook. But he should not be overlooked, because Larkin was a great shortstop. The media knows this -- they did give him a well-earned MVP and over 50% of the Hall vote last year. He needs to get to 75% or better. I think it will happen, but the sooner, the better, because he doesn't deserve to have to wait. C'mon, he's Hall worthy, so no need to futz around here.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! ...and will remain Yes until he gets in.

Prediction: takes a jump to 60%, but induction will take a few more years, drat the luck.


15. Al Leiter (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 19 seasons, 1987-2005 -- New York Yankees 1987-89 & 2005, Toronto Blue Jays 1989-95, Florida Marlins 1996-97 & 2005, *New York Mets 1998-2004.
Peak season: 1998 -- 17-6, 2.47, 28 starts, 4 CG, 193.0 innings, 174 K, 170 ERA+, 1.150 WHIP, 6.5 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1995, 1996, 2000.
Career WAR: 38.8 as a pitcher (-2.7 as a batter).
Primary position: starting pitcher (left handed).
Honoraria and claims to fame: two All-Star selections. Led league in H/9IP once. Member of two World Series champions, the 1993 Blue Jays and 1997 Marlins, as well as the 2000 NL champion Mets.

Leiter could eat up innings, but he was never remotely an ace pitcher. Only won 15 games four times, peaking at 17 (and yes, while I give pitcher wins very little consideration in evaluating the player's quality, they remain stubbornly popular, and not having sparkly win numbers can doom a candidate, so I mention them in recognition of this; low win totals cannot disguise the pitcher's lackings in the rest of his game). Walked too many guys, didn't strike out enough. Leiter was usually an above-average pitcher and often a useful part of whichever staff he was on; but if he hadn't been on several World Series teams and spent time in New York in eleven different seasons, he probably wouldn't be on the ballot, where he's only acting as filler. "Just being named on the ballot is an honor" has been heard before, and will be again, and here it fits.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: one and out, four votes.


16. Edgar Martinez (career stats | reviewed on 2010 ballot)

Year on ballot: 2nd (13 remaining).
Peak return: 36.2% (2010).
2010 return: 36.2%.

Career: 18 seasons, 1987-2004 -- all with the *Seattle Mariners.
Peak season: 1995 -- 29 HR, 113 RBI, .356/.479/.628, 182 hits, 52 doubles, 121 runs, 185 OPS+, 7.7 WAR, while playing the entire 145 game schedule.
Other outstanding seasons: 1990, 1991, 1992, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003.
Career WAR: 67.2.
Primary position: designated hitter; was a third baseman in his early seasons.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Seven All-Star selections (four starts), five AL Silver Sluggers (one for 3B, four for DH), two AL batting championships, led the league in OBP three times, runs scored once, doubles twice, RBI once. MLB's award for the season's outstanding designated hitter is named in Martinez's honor, after he won it five times.

Goodness gracious, Edgar Martinez could hit. He hit so well that, in short order, that's all that the Mariners asked him to do. And he did it, brilliantly, and for a very long time.

There are those who still decry the designated hitter, now approaching 40 years established and not going away. I don't see the point (and am continually curious how they evaluate pitchers if they cling to their "players should play offense AND defense" credo, but they always duck that line of inquiry). The DH role is here, and players who DH should be evaluated on their job description. Martinez remains one of the very best, probably the very best, to perform as a designated hitter, and he did so with amazing and worthy endurance. Seriously, find a better DH, ever. Maybe Frank Thomas, but if it takes Frank Thomas to trump Martinez as a DH, Martinez is in truly elite company.

But let's indulge the "whole player"ists and take a look at Martinez' defense. Y'know what? He wasn't that bad. Going by defensive wins above replacement (dWAR), he had a couple of pretty good seasons, and no really bad ones, only once dipping below -0.4 (to -0.6). He usually had to take up his glove a few games every season, interleague play saw to that, and he didn't do any meaningful harm. Over his career, he was a defensive positive, +0.3 dWAR. Sure, had he played defense more he might have been a liability, but as a DH, the Mariners didn't let that happen -- the team leveraged him to avoid that. Smart move. Take that, naysayers. (Besides, when did a monster hitter ever have to worry about his defensive contributions when it comes to the Hall ballot? Please. Martinez was a monster hitter, and could not possibly have significantly damaged his offensive contributions through poor defense, even if he was stationed at shortstop.)

Edgar Martinez deserves a plaque in Cooperstown because he was a great hitter, and because someone, eventually, has to be the first primary DH in the Hall, and we may as well pioneer that with the very best.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes! ...for however long it takes.

Prediction: jumps to 40%, but it could be another Blyleven campaign ahead. Willing to undertake the task, though annoyed that it may come to that.


Of these eight candidates: Larkin and Edgar Martinez. That makes seven so far. Definitely gonna have to throw some names off the lifeboat when I'm done. Oh well....

More candidates tomorrow.

The Hall's 2011 BBWAA ballot -- Candidates Review (part 1 of 4)

There are 33 candidates on the Hall ballot this year -- 14 returning, and 19 rookies.

Two items about how I review candidates. First, I tend to put more weight on great seasons than on shiny career totals, because the annual goal of the baseball season is to earn a postseason berth, and a great season does more toward helping achieve that than do a number of good seasons. This doesn't always make a great difference in my candidate assessment, but sometimes it does. Second, regards PEDs -- usage of such (and I don't constrain my considerations to steroids and/or HGH, though these remain the popular memes in baseball) tends not to bother me. In particular, usage (established or, in far more cases, merely suspected) prior to the 2004 steroid ban makes very little difference here. Baseball is a competitive enterprise that attracts competitive people, all of whom are continuously looking for an edge over the other guys. If it wasn't against baseball policy, it was not only available, but expected and tacitly encouraged on a cultural level. If it was against the law, that would be a matter for the relevant district attorney. Playing baseball at the major league level is hard, and talent never came out of a bottle. Magic waters might make a player better, but anyone in the big leagues was pretty damn good to begin with. And, lastly, if steroid usage was as widespread as some sources claim -- well over half of the major league population -- than advantages were largely negated, and relative greatness on the field still shone through. I'm okay with that.

Anyone caught using steroids after the 2004 ban, however, is an idiot, and I have no problem factoring in that as well. If any player is mentioned (other than incidentally) in the Mitchell Report, that is noted.

With that, let's go to the first eight candidates on this year's ballot, using the traditional alphabetical order. The asterisk * indicates the team which, if elected, I expect would be on the player's plaque cap.


1. Roberto Alomar (career stats | reviewed on 2010 ballot)

Year on ballot: 2nd (13 remaining).
Peak return: 73.7% (2010).
2010 return: 73.7% (eight votes short of election).

Career: 17 seasons, 1988-2004 -- San Diego Padres 1988-90, *Toronto Blue Jays 1991-95, Baltimore Orioles 1996-98, Cleveland Indians 1999-2001, New York Mets 2002-03, Chicago White Sox 2003 & '04, Arizona Diamondbacks 2004.
Peak season: 1999 -- 24 HR (career high), 120 RBI (career high), .323/ .422/ .533, 182 hits, 138 runs (led AL), 139 OPS+, 7.9 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 1993, 1996, 1997, 2001.
Career WAR: 63.5.
Primary position: second baseman.
Honoraria and claims to fame: 12 All-Star selections (nine starts), ten AL Gold Gloves for 2B, four AL Silver Sluggers for 2B, MVP Awards for the 1992 ALCS and the 1998 All-Star Game. Member of 1992 & 1993 World Series champion Blue Jays and five other postseason teams. Led AL in runs scored in 1999. Member of the Blue Jays Ring of Excellence.

Okay, writers, you delivered your slap on Alomar's wrist for spitting on the umpire long ago. We get it. Message received. Now, vote this man in like he deserves and like you know he deserves.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes!

Prediction: 81%, elected.


2. Carlos Baerga (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 14 seasons, 1990-99, 2002-05 -- *Cleveland Indians 1990-96 & '99, New York Mets 1996-98, San Diego Padres 1999, Boston Red Sox 2002, Arizona Diamondbacks 2003-04, Washington Nationals 2005.
Peak season: 1992 -- 205 hits, 32 doubles, 20 HR, 105 RBI, .312 / .354 / .455, 92 runs, 127 OPS+, 5.5 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1993, 1994.
Career WAR: 16.0.
Primary position: second baseman.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (one start), two AL Silver Sluggers for second base. Led the AL in singles in 1992. Led the AL in putouts by a second baseman in 1992-93, and in assists by a second baseman in 1992, '93, and '95. Member of the 1995 AL champion Cleveland Indians, a genuine monster team.

Baerga had a brilliant but very short peak, two great seasons and two more that would have looked even better were it not for the 1994-95 strike. But he quickly fell to pieces after, which is curious because he was entering his late 20's, when most players have their peak. His 1998 season was the last time he played more than 105 games in a season; he quickly fell -- no, crashed -- to backup player status. Different teams kept giving him chances, but all he showed was that he had very little left. It happens. Good player, but well short of Hall measure.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: this will be Baerga's only ballot. Less than 5%, and relegated.


3. Jeff Bagwell (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 15 seasons, 1991-2005 -- all with the *Houston Astros.
Peak season: 1994 -- sure, it was a strike-shortened season, but Bags played in 110 of Houston's 115 games, and suffered one of the best-timed major injuries in history. Bagwell's season ended when he was hit by a pitch, breaking a bone, on August 10, and the strike ended the season on August 11. Without the strike, he probably doesn't win the NL MVP, but that is what happened, and this is what he did: 147 hits, 32 doubles, 39 HR, 116 RBI, 65 walks, .368 / .451 / .750, 104 runs scored, 213 OPS+, 8.9 WAR (in a short season). Geez.
Other outstanding seasons: 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001... he made a habit of being great.
Career WAR: 79.9.
Primary position: first baseman.
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections (two starts), 1994 NL MVP, 1991 NL Rookie Of The Year, three NL Silver Sluggers, one NL Gold Glove for 1B. Led NL in games played four times, runs scored three times, doubles once, RBI once, walks once, slugging once. Jersey #5 retired by the Astros.

Ah, Jeff Bagwell -- the reason Larry Andersen is still a known name. Traded late in the 1990 season, he never played for Boston (alas), but built a legend in the Astrodome. Bagwell could always hit, nearly winning a batting title in AA despite a hitter-hostile home park. The 'Dome was not much nicer, yet Bags had the talent to master it. He rolled to his ROY award, even parking a home run into the third deck in Three Rivers Stadium, where typically only Willie Stargell could reach -- and that was just the beginning. Together with Craig Biggio, they formed the heart of the Killer B's (there was typically a third "B" on the roster -- Derek Bell for a while, Lance Berkman later, and others), and propelled the Astros to four division titles and six total postseason appearances in a nine-year span, culminating in the 2005 NL pennant and World Series. All that would not have happened without this man.

Bagwell could hit like thunder, and did so from his amateur days, during his brief time in the minors, and throughout his big league career until shoulder arthritis drained his power. Bagwell hit, hit, hit, hit, hit, hit for power, drew walks, and kept on hitting. I like seasons with an OPS+ of 140 or better (as a rule of thumb; it's not absolute). Bagwell had eight such seasons, typically well above 140, plus four other seasons in the high 130s. And he was pretty good on defense as well. No player posts an immaculate career, anyone can be criticized a li'l bit -- but there's really nothing in Bagwell's career that casts any doubts he is Hall material.

Except for one thing, and no one in a position to know will say it clearly. Bagwell's peak came during the steroid-fueled 1990s, the powerball era, and even though we know little for certain, there are those, entrusted with Hall ballots or not, who hint and allege that maybe there was something about Bagwell. Lookit those forearms! (They were impressive.) Well, tough beans -- if there's hard evidence, produce it, or let it go. There's nothing credible about Bagwell being involved; nothing has come to light. Some voters claim they want to wait and see -- fine, I suppose. There is and likely always will be a contingent who withhold their vote from any player's first time on the ballot -- the reasons why are irrelevant -- and I recognize there will be some who think Bagwell is worthy but "not first-ballot worthy". I disagree, but whaddya gonna do? If he misses this year, and I suspect he will (but not by much), the votes will be there next time. The voters get a pass on criticism of their first ballots. But if he misses again -- there will need to be a reckoning. What reasons then? If there's evidence, produce it -- or swallow the suspicions and cast this man his deserved votes.

Jeff Bagwell is, clearly (and cleanly), a Hall Of Fame player.

Chipmaker's vote: YES!

Prediction: lands closely aside Barry Larkin, over 60% but short of election.


4. Harold Baines (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 5th (10 remaining).
Peak return: 6.1% (2010).
2010 return: 6.1%.

Career: 22 seasons, 1980-2001 -- *Chicago White Sox 1980-89, '96-97, & 2000-01, Texas Rangers 1989-90, Oakland Athletics 1990-92, Baltimore Orioles 1993-95 & '97-2000, Cleveland Indians 1999.
Peak season: 1984 -- 29 HR (career high), 94 RBI, .304/.361/.541, 142 OPS+, 109 RC, 3.6 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1989, 1991, 1996.
Career WAR: 37.0.
Primary position: right field for seven seasons, then designated hitter.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Six All-Star selections (one start), one Silver Slugger, led the AL in slugging average in 1984. Good postseason hitter (.324/.378/.510 in 31 G, 102 AB). Jersey #3 retired by the White Sox.

There's a hardcore contingent of voters from the Chicago BBWAA chapter that keeps Baines on the ballot, but his candidacy is going nowhere. As a hitter, he was good, sometimes very good, but not great, and as a designated hitter, his hitting is essentially his only credential. And his hitting isn't enough. Move along, nothing to see here.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: climbs to 7%, because hey, why not?


5. Bert Blyleven (career stats | reviewed on 2010, 2009, and 2008 ballots)

Year on ballot: 14th (one remaining).
Peak return: 74.2% (2010).
2010 return: 74.2% (five votes short of election).

Career: 22 seasons, 1970-90 & 1992 -- *Minnesota Twins 1970-76 & '85-88, Texas Rangers 1976-77, Pittsburgh Pirates 1978-80, Cleveland Indians 1981-85, California Angels 1989-90 & '92.
Peak season: 1973 -- 20-17, 2.52, 258 K, 158 ERA+, 9.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1974, 1977, 1984, 1989.
Career WAR: 90.1 (as a pitcher; drops to 87.6 when considering his batting).
Primary position: right-handed starting pitcher.
Honoraria and claims to fame: Two All-Star selections, led AL in strikeouts once and shutouts three times. Fifth highest career strikeout total, third highest when he retired. 287 career wins (which, alas, is just short of 300). Member of two World Series champion teams, the 1979 Pirates and the 1987 Twins. An excellent postseason pitcher -- 5-1, 2.47 in 8 games, 6 starts, 47.1 IP, 36 K, 8 BB.

My support of Blyleven has been unflagging, and his 2010 return, a whisker short of the finish line, was maddening and enthralling. The internet campaign has never relented, and this year, I think, is Bert's year at last. C'mon, let's get it over with, happy ending.

Chipmaker's vote: YES! (like always)

Prediction: elected. I don't give a damn what the percentage is, as long as it's above 75. Let's win this one and move on to beating the Tim Raines drum.


6. Bret Boone (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 14 seasons, 1992-2005 -- *Seattle Mariners 1992-93 & 2001-05, Cincinnati Reds 1994-98, Atlanta Braves 1999, Minnesota Twins 2005.
Peak season: 2001 -- 158 games, 206 hits, 37 doubles, 37 HR, 141 RBI, 118 runs scored, .331 / .372 / .578, 153 OPS+, 9.3 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1994, 2002, 2003.
Career WAR: 21.4.
Primary position: second baseman.
Honoraria and claims to fame: three All-Star selections (one start), two AL Silver Sluggers, four Gold Gloves (one NL, three AL). Led league in RBI once, putouts by a second baseman once., fielding percentage by a second baseman three times.

Baseball bonus points: Boone was the first third-generation major league player, following grandfather Ray Boone (1948-60) and father Bob Boone (1972-90). His brother Aaron later joined Bret in this distinction.

Boone was pretty good for a while, with one amazingly great season with the 116-win 2001 Mariners. And he had a few more good seasons after that, but then fell apart starting in 2004 -- when the steroids ban went into effect, which I think was not a mere coincidence. Anyway, that's not particularly important here; what is, is that Boone had more disappointing seasons, league-average at best, than he had great, Hall-class seasons. There's anecdotal evidence that Boone was a product of playing better through chemistry (Mitchell has nothing about him), but even if so, it wasn't enough here. Good for a time, but not all-time great.

Chipmaker's vote: No.

Prediction: one and out.


7. Kevin Brown (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 19 seasons, 1986 & 1988-2005 -- *Texas Rangers 1986 & '88-94, Baltimore Orioles 1995, Florida Marlins 1996-97, San Diego Padres 1998, Los Angeles Dodgers 1999-2003, New York Yankees 2004-05.
Peak season: 1996 -- 17-11, 1.89 ERA, 32 starts, 5 CG, 3 shutouts, 233.0 innings pitched, 159 K, 33 walks, 217 ERA+, 0.994 WHIP, 7.5 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1992, 1995, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2003.
Career WAR: 64.8 as a pitcher (-0.8 as a batter).
Primary position: starting pitcher (right handed).
Honoraria and claims to fame: six All-Star selections (one start). Led his league in wins once, games started three times, innings pitched once, ERA twice, ERA+ once, WHIP twice. Member of the 1997 World Series champion Marlins and the 1998 NL champion Padres.

Mitchell Report: has his own section (pp. 214-217) implicating him having purchased and probably used human growth hormone and, once, a steroid.

What people probably remember best about Brown is his seven-year, $105 million contract he signed with the Dodgers, and how he never seemed able to measure up to it (in fact, some of his seasons under that deal were outstanding; others, derailed by injuries). That wasn't a smart contract from the start, but that wasn't Brown's fault.

What people don't remember so well is how good a pitcher Brown was most of the time. No, he didn't pile up Ws, because the modern game isn't conducive to that, but he did prevent baserunners and runs, during an era when that was increasingly difficult to do. Lack of Ws, particularly not having 20 or more in a season during his peak, is one reason he never won a Cy Young Award (he did finish second once and third once). That doesn't make him a lesser pitcher, just a less recognized one. Brown could pitch crazy good, but doing it during the same time that Maddux and Martinez and Clemens and Johnson were doing it even better, made it hard to stand out. (I remember well he was sheer terror upon the 1998 Astros in the postseason -- that was the best Houston team ever, they'd added Johnson late in the year, and Brown still ate their entire lunch in two games in October.)

So how does Brown stand? His peak, a pretty long one, runs from 1992 through 2001, ten seasons. Let's check a few stats during that time, using a minimum of 100 games started.

Adjusted ERA:
1. Maddux, 172
2. Martinez, 170
3. Johnson, 159
4t. Clemens, 142
4t. Rijo, 142
6. Brown, 140
7. Glavine, 132
8t. Smoltz, 131
8t. Mussina, 131
10. Schilling, 130

WHIP:
1. Martinez, 1.021
2. Maddux, 1.022
3. Schilling, 1.113
4. Johnson, 1.123
5. Saberhagen, 1.154
6. Smoltz, 1.156
7. Brown, 1.160
8. Mussina, 1.166
9. Rijo, 1.189
10. Reed, 1.199

WAR
1. Maddux, 64.4
2. Johnson, 60.2
3. Clemens, 56.3
4. Martinez, 51.4
5. Brown, 51.2
6. Mussina, 48.9
7. Schilling, 44.1
8. Appier, 43.1
9. Cone, 41.9
10. Glavine, 40.8

He's in good company.

So, is this good enough for the Hall? I've long considered that the big five -- Maddux, Johnson, Martinez, Glavine, and Clemens (yes, even Clemens, especially Clemens) were clearly a cut above other starting pitchers, with Schilling and Mussina a step behind. Brown fits in neatly with these last two. And now he gets on the ballot first, before I've had to really consider Curt and Moose. Brown wasn't a nice guy, from most reports, and he has the PED sword dangling over him, so I expect he's not going to get elected, not in 2011 and probably never. That's certainly the easy choice. But I'm going to give him my thumbs-up, with the caveat that, if at the end of this week I have more than ten candidates (real voters are limited to ten names), Brown will likely be one of my cuts.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes, though I may toss him based upon the ten name limit.

Prediction: 10%. Hangs around for a long while.


8. John Franco (career stats)

Writers ballot rookie.

Career: 21 seasons, 1984-2001 & 2003-05 -- Cincinnati Reds 1984-89, *New York Mets 1990-2001 & '03-04, Houston Astros 2005.
Peak season: 1988 -- 6-6, 39 saves, 1.57, 86.0 innings, 46 strikeouts, 230 ERA+, 1.012 WHIP, 3.2 WAR.
Other outstanding seasons: 1985, 1987, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2003.
Career WAR: 25.8 as a pitcher (-0.3 as a batter).
Primary position: relief pitcher (left handed).
Honoraria and claims to fame: four All-Star selections, 1988 & 1990 NL Rolaids Relief Man Award. Led league in saves three times, games finished twice. Holds the major league record for games pitched (1119) without a start (zero). Career 424 saves ranked third all-time when he retired, currently fourth.

Yeesh, another left-handed reliever -- we've seen a bunch of good ones on recent ballots. Franco looks better than any of them. Never given the ball at the start of the game (even Orosco picked up four starts in his early years), Franco only pitched more than 90 innings twice, with three other seasons of 80+ (and just missed in his rookie year, with 79.1) -- and those were his big workloads. After he moved to the Mets, he never threw 70 innings in a season, and was usually below sixty. He was a closer, until his final few seasons when he transitioned to being a LOOGY -- a lefty one-out guy.

Now, a closer's innings tend to be high leverage -- clutch, if you will -- where one run allowed can swing or even blow the game. It's not an easy role; few thrive at being closers for more than a season or two. Franco was one of the few who performed well and at a high level for an extended duration. He knew what to do and did it, got the outs, earned the save, sealed the win. That's valuable.

Was he Hall class? Closers are still gaining the attention and respect of the voters, but there have been several in recent years -- Eckersley, Sutter, Fingers, Gossage. So the "Hall reliever" profile is taking shape. Franco, I think, fits well with these peers. He did his job, very well, for a long time. I'm going to approach him like I did Brown -- name him to my virtual ballot, but he'll be among the first tossed off if I have too many names. He'd look good on a plaque, but it doesn't have to be this year and I'm not going to argue deeply in his favor. Welcome aboard, John.

Chipmaker's vote: Yes, though dumped if needs be.

Prediction: stays on the ballot with a nondescript 9%, but as with recent closers and Smith above him, builds steam over the next 5-10 years. If he gets in, it'll be years from now -- but it could happen.


Of the first eight candidates: yes to Alomar, Bagwell, Blyleven, and tentatively to Brown and Franco. Hm, that's five already, and there are six other returning candidates I've supported before, so someone is going to get booted off this island.

More tomorrow.